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[LectureMaster]

Here's the gaming site news that mentions the journal paper

Piracy can reduce sales revenues by 20%, a sizable loss for publishers and developers

A new study indicates that Denuvo DRM helps protect 'total revenue from piracy by a mean of 15% and a median of 20%' on the initial impact of sales.

www.tweaktown.com

Here's the actual journal article:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1875952124002532

Snippets:

---

The paper's author, William M. Volckmann II, explains:

I exploit the randomness with which Denuvo is cracked to estimate the effect Denuvo has on protecting revenue from piracy displacement.

When Denuvo is cracked very early on, piracy leads to an estimated 20 percent fall in total revenue on average relative to an uncracked counterfactual, but that effect is weaker the longer it takes for Denuvo to be cracked.

When Denuvo survives for at least 12 weeks, piracy leads to nearly zero total revenue loss on average. The results suggest that Denuvo does protect legitimate sales to an estimated mean of 15 percent of total revenue and median of 20 percent, but there is little justification to employ Denuvo long-term (i.e. for more than three months), especially given that Denuvo can have negative technical side effects and is generally disliked by users.

• Denuvo DRM protects total revenue from piracy by a mean of 15% and a median of 20%.
• Piracy causes mean total revenue to decrease by 20% when Denuvo is cracked quickly.
• Piracy causes zero mean total revenue loss when Denuvo survives for 12 weeks or more.
• The characteristics of a game cannot explain its likelihood of being cracked.

---

You know what, I actually went ahead to obtain the full paper and read it through. It has well-designed mathematic models, however, all the sales data isn't present in the paper, as the author claim "Data will be made available on request."

One of the author's conclusions is as follow.

When Denuvo survives for at least 12 weeks, piracy leads to nearly zero total revenue loss on average. The results suggest that Denuvo does protect legitimate sales to an estimated mean of 15 percent of total revenue and median of 20 percent, but there is little justification to employ Denuvo long-term (i.e. for more than three months), especially given that Denuvo can have negative technical side effects and is generally disliked by users.

 

[LectureMaster]

I guess it's okay to post some of the data charts since this article has extracted them from the paper:

The true cost of game piracy: 20 percent of revenue, according to a new study

Analysis of Denuvo DRM cracking shows significant impacts on publishers’ bottom lines.

arstechnica.com

 

[Zathalus]

I’m fine with Denuvo being in at at launch as long as it gets removed later on.

 

[Silver Wattle]

I call bullshit.

 

[TrueLegend]

Denuvo is garbage. Jedi Survivor and Resident Evil have shown that. New Denuvo is beyond shit as it hammers performance when performance is critical. For example if a game can hit 55-60 barely due to scene complexity, Denuvo makes it worse. More like 45-50 and then it's a big fucking problem. If there is stutter due to optimization bottleneck guess what Denuvo will amplify that. Fuck Denuvo.

 

[a multicultural team of v]

I call bullshit.

It's a paper in an academic journal. This is the receipt.

 

[clarky]

Bullshit. People who pirate aren't buying games period.

You think little tommy wants to play Jedi survivor so bad he's willing to pay $50 for the privilege when he has literally 1000's of titles he's only played for 10 minutes at his finger tips?

Conversely you think someone who purchases games on the regular is suddenly going to stop because something is on the high seas day one?

Makes no difference.

 

[Cakeboxer]

I always wonder how they come up with those numbers. How do they know how many people played a piratetd copy and how do they know how many of those would have bought the game if no crack was available?

 

[Senua]

Research conducted by Denuvo

 

[clarky]

I always wonder how they come up with those numbers. How do they know how many people played a piratetd copy and how do they know how many of those would have bought the game if no crack was available?

Our survey blah blah blah. I don't see how its possible to measure this stuff.

Next thing they'll be telling us is Outlaws doing so badly was all the pirates fault.

 

[Soodanim]

I can see it being true in a broad sense (i.e. the curve on the graph) with regards to people who take the opportunity if it's there but otherwise want to play it badly enough that they buy it. The always pirate and never pirate groups aren't relevant here, it's the ground where it might go either way. I'm not quite so sure about the claim of 80% of initial revenue with a day 1 crack though.

The results line up with the general consensus that Denuvo stops serving a purpose after a time, and if Denuvo was a limited time thing (3 months for safety) I would be fine with it. Companies protect their product at the most vulnerable time and consumers aren't stuck with the negatives when it no longer needs to be around.

I wonder about 2 things:

1. If this will have any impact on companies moving forward should data prove to be reliable
2. What the contracts with Denuvo look like, and if minimum period terms exist

 

[RCX]

Not sure why anyone would want to pirate most games on day 1 anyway. The "big" games often release broken or incomplete. A few months down the line Denuvo gets removed and the game is more likely to be feature complete and technically sound.

Then the pirate gets the better deal. In the meantime paying customers have to deal with all this and the potential performance cost that comes with the DRM itself. Kinda sucks.

 

[clarky]

I can see it being true in a broad sense (i.e. the curve on the graph) with regards to people who take the opportunity if it's there but otherwise want to play it badly enough that they buy it. The always pirate and never pirate groups aren't relevant here, it's the ground where it might go either way. I'm not quite so sure about the claim of 80% of initial revenue with a day 1 crack though.

The results line up with the general consensus that Denuvo stops serving a purpose after a time, and if Denuvo was a limited time thing (3 months for safety) I would be fine with it. Companies protect their product at the most vulnerable time and consumers aren't stuck with the negatives when it no longer needs to be around.

I wonder about 2 things:

1. If this will have any impact on companies moving forward should data prove to be reliable
2. What the contracts with Denuvo look like, and if minimum period terms exist

If you are knowledgeable enough and willing to torrent and play a game then I'd argue the you are not buying many games, if at all. You are not just buying the odd one because it ain't getting cracked for a couple of weeks.

It wasn't how I operated back in the poor days anyways.

 

[lh032]

i support denuvo on all steam games.

 

[Silver Wattle]

It's a paper in an academic journal. This is the receipt.

In OP: "however, all the sales data isn't present in the paper, as the author claim "Data will be made available on request.""
Sales data is the receipt, it is not available in the paper, therefore this is NOT the receipt.

 

[FeralEcho]

Since they like numbers and percentages let's not leave out how It also 100% impacts performance.So pirates get a better performing game after this shit gets removed. Genius move.

 

[LectureMaster]

I always wonder how they come up with those numbers. How do they know how many people played a piratetd copy and how do they know how many of those would have bought the game if no crack was available?

This is what's written in the article. After a quick Google Scholar search, Erich is an economy professor at UC Davis, the rest two couldn't be identified.

What the contracts with Denuvo look like, and if minimum period terms exist

From the games we have seen that removed Denuvo from a later date, I think one year is probably the shortest contract with DRM

 

[P.Jack]

The real question is if no Denuvo at all would affect sales.

How many copies are pirated because of Denuvo?

 

[Cakeboxer]

This is what's written in the article. After a quick Google Scholar search, Erich is an economy professor at UC Davis, the rest two couldn't be identified.

From the games we have seen that removed Denuvo from a later date, I think one year is probably the shortest contract with DRM

Estimated is all i needed to read to know he pulls numbers out of his arse. There is simply no reputable way of telling numbers. The only thing you can tell, even as a non professor, is: Piracy reduces sales. End of story.

 

[SpiceRacz]

 

[Buggy Loop]

It's a paper in an academic journal. This is the receipt.

I’ve read so many academic papers and IEEE/IEC scientific articles on the field I’ve been working in for 2 decades to know how little it means that the author know what they are doing if not outright publishing bullshit.

 

[CompleteGlobalSaturation]

Piracy certainly reduces sales but this is quite difficult to quantify. Elden Ring and Cyberpunk were available to pirate yet sold gangbusters.

Just because someone pirates a game does not mean there is a lost sale.

As a jobless child and teenager I used to pirate games all the time which I had zero intention of buying, purely to 'try out' the game.

As an adult - because I have a job - I buy all my games from CDKeys or Steam. I also play very few games a year due to time limitations.

 

[Soodanim]

If you are knowledgeable enough and willing to torrent and play a game then I'd argue the you are not buying many games, if at all. You are not just buying the odd one because it ain't getting cracked for a couple of weeks.

It wasn't how I operated back in the poor days anyways.

We'll have to wait until Silver Wattle sends the receipts gif to William M. Volckmann II so we can see what the data looks like

 

[clarky]

The real question is if no Denuvo at all would affect sales.

How many copies are pirated because of Denuvo?

That's what I mean, I don't see how you could know.

For example the current top selling game on Steam is Dragon Ball which is also one of the most pirated by the looks of things. How many of those pirates would actually purchase the game? i think its impossible to tell.

Metaphor in second place on steam has Denuvo, is not currently on the high seas. How many people bought the game because they can't steal it? Again its impossible to tell imo. But not many i'd think, they'll just wait.

 

[Cakeboxer]

Piracy certainly reduces sales but this is quite difficult to quantify.

It's not just difficult, you simply can't. Even platform holders can't tell exact numbers, Sony or Microsoft will never know if their moneyhatting paid off.

 

[DJ12]

Shame they cannot/dont measure the people that just didn't buy the game because it has denovo or request a refund be cause it keeps crashing

 

[bbeach123]

How tf they get that 20% numbers ?
prophecy?

 

[clarky]

We'll have to wait until Silver Wattle sends the receipts gif to William M. Volckmann II so we can see what the data looks like

I think the data will be covered in shit as its pulled from his ass.

 

[Robb]

20% on average?

That sounds humongous. If this was true every single games company would be acting like Nintendo all the time. Something’s off.

Either way I hope we get more research on this in the future, positive or negative (from the companies perspective). I recall EU doing a survey years ago that they tried to hide because it didn't reveal piracy as very harmful.

 

[Majukun]

I wonder how can you gauge something like this, do they count every single piratred copy as a sold retailed one? Because that's not how it works

sounds like a denuvo commissioned study to tell customers to "get denuvo even if it gets cracked later"

 

[Guardian Monkey]

20% on average?

That sounds humongous. If this was true every single games company would be acting like Nintendo all the time. Something’s off.

Most game companies don't have the armada of lawyers they do.

 

[Soodanim]

I think the data will be covered in shit as its pulled from his ass.

Withholding data is surely a red flag when it comes to studies, it makes you question the motive. Are studies not supposed to be transparent for review? I know we're not talking about proper science here, but even so.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

Research conducted by Denuvo

Doubt it. I’m sure Denuvo insist on contract terms longer than 3 months, which is why it doesn’t get removed at that point - companies paid for it, so from their perspective it’s money wasted.

Denuvo on the other hand doesn’t care - you paid for 12 months, do whatever you want.

 

[Robb]

Most game companies don't have the armada of lawyers they do.

The big ones do, and if they didn’t they’d have invested in more if this was the case.

I mean, 20% as the median? That’d imply they may be losing upwards to 40% in some cases. Insane if true.

 

[CliffBronger]

I wonder if CD Projekt Red agrees with this new study ?

 

[clarky]

The big ones do, and if they didn’t they’d have invested in more if this was the case.

I mean, 20% as the median? That’d imply they may be loosing upwards to 40% in some cases. Insane if true.

If you include place where piracy is rampant, some Asian countries, Russia etc then I suppose you could get to those numbers but those folks are never buying your game regardless.

 

[Boss Mog]

People who pirate your game were never gonna buy your game.

 

[Fabieter]

Our survey blah blah blah. I don't see how its possible to measure this stuff.

Next thing they'll be telling us is Outlaws doing so badly was all the pirates fault.

If its not measurable than you can't say it doesn't have an effect either.

 

[P.Jack]

People who pirate your game were never gonna buy your game.

Or maybe they where about to buy it, noticed it had Denuvo that messes with performance and went to pirate it instead.

 

[clarky]

If its not measurable than you can't say it doesn't have an effect either.

OF course it has an effect I never said otherwise. IF it was impossible to pirate games completely then sales would go up.

By how much though? Its impossible to know.

 

[clarky]

Or maybe they where about to buy it, noticed it had Denuvo that messes with performance and went to pirate it instead.

Then the anti pirate measures are having the opposite effect than what's described in the OP if true.

 

[Robb]

If you include place where piracy is rampant, some Asian countries, Russia etc then I suppose you could get to those numbers but those folks are never buying your game regardless.

Eh, maybe? Feels like a stretch even in those cases to me. But tbf I haven’t read the research or seen the data.

 

[Fabieter]

OF course it has an effect I never said otherwise. IF it was impossible to pirate games completely then sales would go up.

By how much though? Its impossible to know.

I agree with that. But right in this thread alot of people claim that those people wouldn't buy the games anyway which is false.

 

[clarky]

Eh, maybe? Feels like a stretch even in those cases to me. But tbf I haven’t read the research or seen the data.

Totally pulled from my arse mate, but I suspect the dudes data in the op is also.

 

[clarky]

I agree with that. But right in this thread alot of people claim that those people wouldn't buy the games anyway which is false.

Source?

I'm arguing that most people who pirate games do not buy any at all, or very very little. Regardless if they can or can't play it day one. Although that goes back to how do you even measure something like that?

I think if something gets leaked before release then that definitely has an effect though.

 

[Boss Mog]

Or maybe they where about to buy it, noticed it had Denuvo that messes with performance and went to pirate it instead.

Those kinds of people look for Denuvo ahead of time, not right when they're about to click the "Buy" button and so like I said they were never gonna buy it.

 

[Fabieter]

Source?

I'm arguing that most people who pirate games do not buy any at all, or very very little. Regardless if they can or can't play it day one. Although that goes back to how do you even measure something like that?

I think if something gets leaked before release then that definitely has an effect though.

If it's not measurable, then speaking in absolute terms is just as baseless as many of those studies.

I think release timing definitely has an effect on this because of the FOMO when games receive glowing reviews. But like you said, whether sales suffer by 5% or 50% is hard to measure. However, I knew some people like that in the past. They had the money but still said, "As long as I can pirate it, I'm not going to pay for it."

 

[clarky]

If it's not measurable, then speaking in absolute terms is just as baseless as many of those studies.

I think release timing definitely has an effect on this because of the FOMO when games receive glowing reviews. But like you said, whether sales suffer by 5% or 50% is hard to measure. However, I knew some people like that in the past. They had the money but still said, "As long as I can pirate it, I'm not going to pay for it."

Just speaking from experience from when I was a flithy pirate back in my childhood years on the c64/ Amiga. My friends also. No way were we paying for a game, even in the unlikely event i could afford it. Rent it maybe. Thats all I have to go off.

I have paid for my sins btw.

 

[Jibran#one]

I call this bs , people who pirate games, ain't buying games period.

 

[Fabieter]

Just speaking from experience from when I was a flithy pirate back in my childhood years on the c64/ Amiga. My friends also. That all I have to go off.

I have paid for my sins btw.

I get when the money isn't there or if it isn't available to legally buy. Alot of countries actually allow to download that stuff. But if it's like a guy I knew who always had top notch rigs but refused to buy the games as long as he could prevent it. Imo that's disgusting behaviour.