Ha ha, I had assumed that you had seen my previous post in the thread. My bad. I was only talking about NPD (U.S.) numbers.
Here's the original post: Then, go back and read my last post again, and you'll have a good idea of the point I'm making. Much of which has nothing at all to do with whether or not this is good or bad for MS/Sony/Nintendo or total numbers across the entire industry.
Completely ignoring GC/Wii sales just isn't right, though. Yeah, third parties eventually dropped the Gamecube (it happened in 2003-2004), but those first few years provided a fair number of solid third party releases, you know. Ignoring that to try to make your point stronger isn't right. As for the Wii, of course most third parties did never show up at all, but some did, and a few, most notably Ubisoft, have had great success... it is true that many games are PS3/360(/PC) only, but that isn't the whole core market, there is at least some on Nintendo as well. And of course Nintendo's the one that saw the massive growth.
As for handhelds though, it will be interesting to see whether the incredible growth we saw with the DS and PSP can be maintained, given the pressure from cellphones and tablets... I hope it can, but it's clearly far too early to judge that either way.
I mean, you're right that PC/PS3/360-only developers have a problem now because budgets have gotten so huge that one failure can bring down a company. That's quite true and absolutely a huge problem with the industry this last generation. But even so, ignoring Nintendo consoles from the past two generations (I assume you wouldn't ignore the N64 too, given that it did get good Western support?) entirely like that is inaccurate and wrong. Even if they matter less to many Western developers, they matter at least a little to many of them, and have some impact. You make things look worse than they are, and growth less than it is, by only including certain platforms.
(On that note, SNES + Genesis was something like 48-52 million in North America. Turbografx isn't really known, but not more than a million or two at the absolute most.) PS1 + N64 is larger than that though, like 60-70 million I think. (Plus 2.5 million Saturns) Every generation grows overall versus the previous. This gen has been somewhat unique in that its lead system hasn't outsold the lead system of the previous generation -- that has usually happened in the past -- but it hasn't always; the SNES didn't outsell the NES, most notably, but overall the generation did.)
Also, the PS2 had a pretty different developer base from the PS3 and 360... I don't think "PS2 and Xbox versus PS3 and 360" is entirely accurate from a developer basis either. Yeah, most multiplatform console games were indeed PS2/Xbox, and sometimes PS2/Xbox/GC, but those were often from traditionally console developers, a lot of the PC developers were Xbox only, and the big story of the early '00s was North American PC developers all going console. Some did support multiple platforms though I will admit, but still, the PS2 was different from the others. That's particularly true for Japanese support, sure, but somewhat for Western as well. And the lower budgets meant that you didn't need to sell as much either.
I do not think this can be assumed, and might argue that software sales are down. Consider how the DS rarely had games in the top 10, yet routinely bested the Xbox 360 in software sales during its heyday because it had large numbers of titles selling moderate amounts, including Nintendo's "evergreen" titles.
The PS2 also had this phenomenon (that is, lots of smaller titles selling moderate amounts) similar to the DS and Wii. However, I think both the 360 and PS3 are much more top heavy. It is absolutely plausible for top title sales to go up significantly but total sales to go down as everything but those top titles dry up, and legs on legacy titles continue to grow shorter.
While games at the top are selling more than ever, it seems, in part because of the growth of the industry (it HAS gotten larger overall every single generation), I'd say again that the bigger problem here is the massive budgets those games have, not the sales; last gen games could make money off of a smaller number of sales than is possible for expensive HD-console games.
Here's the problem: if you can't afford to make those "blockbuster" games, then your revenue is going to be lower, and you're at risk of either being gobbled up or falling behind the product cost curve. All the big publishers now live off these titles: EA has pushed these "AAA" titles hard with Dead Space, Battlefield 3, SW:TOR, Mass Effect, and so forth; Activision is basically a CoD/Blizzard game machine; Take 2 rises and falls with GTA/Rockstar Games.
Yeah, the growth of AAA game sales does seem to perhaps have come at the cost of A and AA game sales, yes -- the top games are selling more than ever, but the second tier aren't, and are either selling similarly but costing more to make, or selling less. That's just not sustainable. The collapse of the second-tier market was one of Konami's excuses for shutting down Hudson, wasn't it? Now maybe they'd have done that either way (I mean, that certainly doesn't explain killing all of their in progress 3DS games, among others), but still they at least partially had a point.
I would argue that these companies in particular have brought us to this point intentionally. This is a war of attrition. These publishers are deliberately raising the stakes so that the smaller companies ("small" being relative here, as even companies like Midway and THQ qualify) cannot possibly compete.
You think? I don't think a conspiracy theory like that makes sense... no, the industry has gotten itself here just by the momentum of improving technology and the increased costs that each new level of games requires to make, mostly. That, of course, is part of why so many Japanese devs went handheld last gen, not just because the market went there in Japan but because of lower costs.
I mean, it is true that those lower-tier publishers have struggled, but I doubt it was some intentional setup by the big guys.
Look at THQ as a great example of this. If they can't make those AAA games, then they effectively can't make games on the PS3/360 at all, because those platforms are very top / blockbuster heavy. And THQ is a "traditional" gaming company that is accustomed to console-style development. They did not fare well on the Wii, and likely would not fare well on iOS or Facebook, either, because they just aren't built for that type of development. In other words, they were left without an obvious choice of platform, and it hurt them.
Could it have helped THQ that they abandoned what used to be one of their primary markets, making (mediocre) licensed games for kids?
And as for Midway, they just never entirely found their way again after shutting down their arcade division, sadly. I liked Midway, but... '00s Midway, while it had some high points, couldn't match '90s Midway, not by a longshot. And Midway had been losing money for years before it went under; that didn't start with the 360 generation, but well before that. It had only stayed in business because it had a wealthy owner, but once he sold, they went down.
EA, Activision, Take 2, and Ubisoft have deliberately raised the stakes because they recognized what this would do to smaller companies from tiny upstart publishers to small but well known publishers like Majesco all the way up to very-big-but-not-quite-big-enough companies like THQ; they would either have to make 50 Million dollar games or they would lose. And most of them have indeed lost -- unable to finance games on the PS3/360 but also not really accustomed to the sorts of audiences the Wii, iOS, or Facebook attract. THQ is almost certainly going out of business, Eidos is subsumed, Midway is gone, and the number of publishers making console games continues to dwindle.
The rising development costs of games has severe downsides, obviously. But for EA/Take 2/Ubisoft/Activision, it also has the upside of eliminating virtually all serious competition, and this is one of the reasons why all four of those companies have stuck so loyally to the PS3/360 ecosystem even once it became very apparent they wouldn't be the dominant force in gaming they were hoping for.
I really think that that's just a side effect of the direction the industry as a whole has gone, technologically and in terms of which games are selling the most.
Opiate pretty much already covered me on this, but my point wasn't to try to separate core/casual or whatever. I used the term 'core' (a term which I hate) because that seems to be GAF's word of choice for distinguishing Nintendo from the HD Twins.
You are absolutely correct that PS2 had a segment which was a casual audience, and now 360 has built a segment there as well with all the Kinects sold the past couple holidays. The demographics are irrelevant to the point. The point was to compare the userbases which the publishers are targeting.
The publishers which GAF cares about (generalization) are EA, UbiSoft, Activision, THQ, Take 2, RockStar Games, Namco, Capcom, Konami, Square Enix, Sega, etc. And for the past two generations, these publishers have targeted PS2/XBox and PS3/360. For whatever reasons you want to go with, they ignored Gamecube and Wii. Their only efforts on Cube/Wii were lazy ports, spin-offs, party games, mini-games, dance/exercise, or lower-tier devs working on a new IP with a small budget. (The only real exceptions were Resident Evil 4 on Cube, and Epic Mickey on Wii - and Monster Hunter Tri, but that was pretty irrelevant for NPD discussion). All of their top studios, top mainline brands, top dev budgets, top marketing budgets - it all went to PS2/XBox and PS3/360.
That's just note true, the GC had more major third party titles than that, and so does the Wii. Sure, a majority of major third party titles on both platforms, and PS3/360 ones in particular, weren't released on Wii, but you exaggerate. For the GC, as I said earlier yes, third party support fell in 2004, but that still left several years with better third party support, and some multiplatform games even after that. The Wii didn't reach that level, but there were a few here and there.
Oh, and of those four publishers you keep mentioning, Ubisoft and EA have supported both the GC and Wii pretty well. Sega too. Capcom... on and off. (And on the note of Capcom, what, are you forgetting REmake and RE0 already, to name a few?)
That's why I illustrated that comparison, because in that context, for those publishers on home consoles, it has taken longer to get to the same userbase than it did last gen, but costs have risen significantly. Which again makes it pretty easy to see why so many studios have been closing down and why so many publishers have been bleeding money this gen. (The Japanese pubs were sheltered somewhat from the big losses because they were smart enough to branch off into major handheld development as well - something which the western pubs have just recently started dipping their toes into with mobile, but they are still a long, long way from actually committing some of their top dev teams and budgets to the mobile space).
I'd think that a bigger reason behind the Japanese switch to handhelds was because PS3/360 development was so expensive that they couldn't justify those kinds of budgets, given the relatively small size of the Japanese home market, so they looked for an alternate outlet, and that became an increased focus on handheld gaming. Handhelds had always been more popular in Japan than the west, but that really was the tipping point for what happened this last generation. In the West the market is larger, so even if a lot of devs have gone down in the attempt, it's just feasible enough for developers to focus only on the higher-end platforms that they continue to resist financial reality and keep trying for those big-budget titles... of course, we all know the results for most of them, but just enough can get rewards from it, and the seemingly more "better graphics are important"-focused Western gamer culture (comes from the PC gaming industry, likely?), keep them trying.
Edit - And having the generation drag on longer can be a very good thing for MS/Sony/Nintendo. Generally speaking, late in the gen, the hardware is sold for a profit, the R&D costs have all been recouped, and 1st-party software and 3rd-party licensing is pretty much free money. But for the publishers, a gen that drags on isn't really as good as it may appear. The longer the gen drags on, the more churn there is in the userbase. People that got in early in the gen, and have gotten bored with playing the same version of the same games for the 3rd/4th/5th time, and they've just chucked the console on a shelf somewhere and moved on to other games - PC, 3DS, iOS, Facebook, whatever. The longer the gen drags on, the more churn you get every year, so the actual active userbase isn't anywhere near what the late gen numbers suggest, and the newer customers that come in every year are typically budget consumers. And those budget consumers now have a whole back-catalog of excellent games available at $15 or $20, and those are the games they end up buying. Not the shiny new $60 games the publishers are trying to sell.
Certainly true, and particularly in a recession extending the generation makes a lot of sense.
Because it took longer for PS3/360 to get to the same point as PS2/XBox, the average userbase growth per year has been smaller this gen than last, and with the longer generation, the churn will also be a lot higher this gen.
Their prices were, and still are, far too high, so of course it took longer, particularly after the crash...
So the publishers are looking at trying to drag this gen out even longer (even though this has been a horrible gen for most of them - and many of the newcomers to the gen now will be much more budget-conscious consumers), or try to spur on the advance of the next gen (where they are looking at pretty much the same userbase they've been selling to the past two gens, but with a real chance at significantly higher costs once more). Really, they need to either find a way to seriously cut costs, or they need to find a way to expand their market beyond the PS2/XBox - PS3/360 base).
I don't really see either of those things happening, though. I don't know what's going to happen this next generation, but it could get even uglier, that's for sure. It's a strong possibility now, really.