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NPD Sales Results for January 2014 [Up3: PS4/XB1 #1/#2 best selling; Poke/SM3DW/ALBW]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
CheDominik
Member
Anyone who gives a fuck about picture quality won't take pictures with their phone, maybe ever. The difference is night and day.
The console/camera comparison is pretty good actually. People who want to take a quick snapshot to share on facebook or twitter might use their phone, just like people who want to kill some time on their commute will use angry birds or whatever is popular today.
SlipperySlope
Banned
Watches and clocks are dead to most people now. Add home phones too.
Canis lupus
Member
Where is this coming from. PS2's tie ratio is still untouched, and we don't know the global tie ratio's of Xbox Family because MS doesn't provide SW info. I made an analysis of PS3 surpassing Wii in SW sales http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=767855
I still wear a watch, but it's because it doubles as a heart rate monitor. Once my phone can do it from some other sensor I find good enough I'll dump it too.
And_Gignac
Member
There are still a market for all of those gadgets, even more for dedicated cameras and music players. There can, and will be, a dedicated "niche" gaming handheld market if Nintendo decides to
Not even close. Watches are jewelry for men, they are as popular as ever for the jet set.
CheDominik
Member
Watches? You mean these things people spend hundreds or thousands of dollars on? Watches as an accessory or status symbol aren't going anywhere.
And I don't know...maybe I'm old fashioned but I don't want to be available all the time to everybody all the time, hence why I give out my home number to people or companies I don't want to call or reach me 24/7.
I think it's such a luxury not be available all the time..but again maybe I'm old fashioned.
i hate this argument. if the ps4 dominated xbox one and wii u, it's not a monopoly. all three of those platforms are competing with other gaming platforms now. and, if nintendo and microsoft were to be so unsuccessful that they dropped out of the market (unlikely), there would probably be others to replace them. the gaming industry is a lot bigger than sony, microsoft, and nintendo anyway (hello valve, amazon, apple, etc). if a company's product doesn't sell, it's because the market doesn't want it. the better product (in the eyes of most consumers) will and should win out over others. what it does is it pushes the losers (and new entrants) to work even harder. this is good for us.
by the way, i'm not saying the ps4 is a million times better than the other systems at all. i'm just talking about this whole argument of an industry needing every competitor's product to do fantastic.
Jinfash
needs 2 extra inches
It's a concern mainly stemming from the 360 generation and onward, and since this is an NPD thread I was obviously focusing on the US market.
Saint Gregory
Member
The Kindle and Cameras are about as "dead" as the 3DS is in that they are specialty devices that people are only buying because phones/tablets are jack of all trades/master of none replacements for them.
Purists who focus on quality photography or people who are really care about text quality in their eReaders are not going to replace those devices with a tablet/phone in the same way that someone who is a dedicated gamer isn't going to replace their 3DS/Vita with an iPhone. That pretty much goes for everything on my list.
What mobiles are showing us right now is the general public is more concerned with convenience over the additional quality dedicated devices bring to the table. I've got a really nice Sony camera that I bought a couple years ago but I never use it anymore simply because my phone is always in my pocket and is more than good enough for my daily purposes.
Aquamarine
Member
RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
Thanks! Do you have by any chance also the february and march numbers?
The Wii has probably the most amazing 3 year run of any console ever. Imo you can learn alot by comparing it to the newer consoles. It's taking the best case senario and see where you stack up.
I own one physical disc for the Playstation 4 (COD: Ghosts, please don't judge). Everything else I picked up from the Playstation store: Battlefield 4, Resogun, Don't Starve, Pinball Arcade, Warframe, and Outlast. Assassin's Creed IV, I borrowed.
So, I guess I'm one of those owners that's bringing the attach rate down.
Aquamarine
Member
Of course.
February 2007: 335K
March 2007: 259K
Wii started to really explode in late 2007 - 2008 when supply could sufficiently meet demand and the fad was sweeping the nation.
They do an end-user survey, and they are now also getting numbers from some publishers. Whether that's enough to accurately gauge sales is an open question.
CheDominik
Member
Me too... I buy games from the US Store because I think a 70 MSRP for new retail games is utterly ridiculous.
And I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one.
George Claw M.D.
Member
I thought attach ratios were taking digital into account. Is that incorrect? If so, then I can see numbers being highly misleading with more and more people shifting to digital purchases. I'm 100% digital now, too.
Narpas Sword0
Member
Feels sogood.gif to see all of EA's games sell better on ps4 even though most were advertised with xbone. hehe
I guess that NFL and sports deals did nothing.
All the sport titles are selling better on ps4.
Making titanfall exclusive will be one of the dumbest decision they ever made.
who cares
RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
You are awesome!
Yeah I think the PS4 LTD will keep outpacing the Wii until late 2014. XBO will be overtaken pretty quickly or Titanfall proves to be a smashing system driving hit.
Thanks again.
HawksWinStanley
Member
Crazy seeing the popularity swing so fast in Sony's favor in the US. I still can't find one on shelves near me in the Chicago burbs.
If Titanfall ends up being massively popular what are the chances that MS writes an equally massive check and just buys Respawn to secure TF exclusivity? I don't know how realistic that is but is it out of the realm of possibility that MS gets the studio and IP and Zamp and West just leave and start a new company again with that huge check from MS so they can do whatever they want without needing someone like EA backing them? Meanwhile MS doesn't care because they now own the franchise and will just get somebody else to make the sequels.
I know I really ran with the ball there but nothing would surprise me at this point.
But apparently the second game is still due for a PS4 release.
If Titanfall ends up being massively popular what are the chances that MS writes an equally massive check and just buys Respawn to secure TF exclusivity? I don't know how realistic that is but is it out of the realm of possibility that MS gets the studio and IP and Zamp and West just leave and start a new company again with that huge check from MS so they can do whatever they want without needing someone like EA backing them? Meanwhile MS doesn't care because they now own the franchise and will just get somebody else to make the sequels.
I know I really ran with the ball there but nothing would surprise me at this point.
Wickerbasket
Member
EA probably.
Yup. No one is in a "good" position.
It will be very interesting to see where we are in 6 years from now.
People who hate money hatted exclusives and then there is ea too.
Aquamarine
Member
Feels sogood.gif to see all of EA's games sell better on ps4 even though most were advertised with xbone. hehe
I guess that NFL and sports deals did nothing.
All the sport titles are selling better on ps4.
Making titanfall exclusive will be one of the dumbest decision they ever made.
Also, EA was the top publisher for the month, so they have that going for them.
bequietdrive
Member
Wow, impressed that 3D World managed 665,000 just in the US. Must be well over a million worldwide then given its decent sales in Japan.
Version 3.0
Member
No, they're not. Watches are still quite popular. I personally stopped wearing one, because I really just wanted to tell time, and I do indeed use my phone for that now. But watches are also jewelry, and jewelry isn't functional. They still sell very well - believe me, I know, we sell them (amongst thousands of other things).
Clocks - you must be crazy if you believe they're "dead". They're everywhere, in hundreds of varieties. I'm sure the popularity of phones has decreased the number of clocks, sure, but they're also never going to be "dead".
I don't have a home phone any more, either, but guess what? They're also still extremely widespread, even though they're on a steep decline. Estimates are that half of US homes now don't have one. Half is not "dead", nor is it "most". Give it time to die before you declare something dead. You need to get in touch with the world, sir. You clearly have no idea what's what.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Over 500,000 as of the last Famitsu, so yeah.
What's that come out to you in euro when you buy a $60 game in the US store? 45?
Sony lives and breathes low-margin, zero-or-low growth CE bullshit. They're going down with this ship.
I have no idea why Microsoft is chasing this dragon. It's dilutive to their overall business and their model is 10 years out of date. Whatevs, yo!
gundamkyoukai
Member
I think Sony is in a good position well the games part anyway .
The company overall not in a good position but they can sell off to parts that doing badly which they now start doing but gaming seems to be safe which is what i care about .
MS having problem with gaming and fans have to worry about that since while company doing great they can drop x box if they stop caring .
Nintendo well i really don't know what to say about them .
This all from a gaming point of view .
That is not really true any more at the rate they going .
CheDominik
Member
44 to be exact.
But yeah the difference is huge. Couple that with amazon selling digital games(BF4 for $35) and the frequency of PSN sales in the US and you can save a pretty penny.
Version 3.0
Member
So when you say "killed", you really mean "appropriated a significant portion of marketshare from"? Or maybe just "hurt"? Because if you said what you meant, I wouldn't have replied, or maybe just agreed.
I also have a really nice Sony camera that I don't use - much. But when I go somewhere and I know I'll want to take pictures, whether that's on vacation or just hiking for the day, I take it.
I do a lot of things less frequently than I use my camera. Like eating at a "nice" restaurant, or going to a live show, or heck, going on vacation. But those industries are fine. They haven't been "killed" by fast food, or television, or local entertainment.
And many, if not most, of the businesses that phones' convenient abilities have impacted will also survive. Including video games.
The amount of money it would take is something MS would never pay. EA wants titanfall to be the next call of duty and if it comes even close to that level of popularity they would be potentially leaving billions of dollars of the table by keeping it off PS4, especially since currently it seems like it will outsell the xbox. The only reason MS can afford to buy the first one is because the install bases are so low right now.
Actually one of the two games, Bound High, DID materialize, some 15 years after the fact.
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2010/05/unfinished_virtual_boy_game_bound_high_finally_released
It was later manufactured on reproduction Virtual Boy carts and sold for $75.
serversurfer
Member
I'll never catch up, so this seems as good a place as any to jump in
So let's look at shipments for a minute. MS reported 3.9M shipped, and claimed 3M sold. Some insiders were indicating it was actually closer to 2.8M sold, and that better fits the sales numbers we've actually seen, so let's split the difference and say they had ~1M unsold units in the channel at the end of 2013.
So where are they gonna sell 1M+ units this quarter? They're on pace for 430K in the US, maybe 450K with a Titanfall bump. Then maybe another 150K in the UK? That's 600K in those two markets, but where will they come up with another 400K? In Spain, across all of January plus the last week of December, they sold about 8K XBone's. Demand for the XBone outside of US/UK seems to be abysmal. I really don't see how they can sell 1M units this quarter.
I'm sure they'll do whatever it takes to avoid a negative shipment for this quarter, but how much can they realistically expect to ship? The Wii U only shipped 500K in its first post-launch quarter. Will MS be able to match that? That would put ~1.5M units in the channel, with realistic expectations of selling less than 750K. Will retailers take shipments of 500K to be stockpiled on top of the 250K they're already looking at storing?
MS keep drawing comparisons to the XB360 launch, so it seems appropriate to point out XBone's First January was only 57% of XB360's FJ. PS2, PS3, and XB360 all had about 250K while supply constrained, while PS4 and Wii were constrained at ~280K and 436K, respectively. So while XBone may not be headed to a Wii U/GameCube-style flop, it doesn't seem far off from the original XBox's performance, at 51% of XB360 FJ.
So let's look at shipments for a minute. MS reported 3.9M shipped, and claimed 3M sold. Some insiders were indicating it was actually closer to 2.8M sold, and that better fits the sales numbers we've actually seen, so let's split the difference and say they had ~1M unsold units in the channel at the end of 2013.
So where are they gonna sell 1M+ units this quarter? They're on pace for 430K in the US, maybe 450K with a Titanfall bump. Then maybe another 150K in the UK? That's 600K in those two markets, but where will they come up with another 400K? In Spain, across all of January plus the last week of December, they sold about 8K XBone's. Demand for the XBone outside of US/UK seems to be abysmal. I really don't see how they can sell 1M units this quarter.
I'm sure they'll do whatever it takes to avoid a negative shipment for this quarter, but how much can they realistically expect to ship? The Wii U only shipped 500K in its first post-launch quarter. Will MS be able to match that? That would put ~1.5M units in the channel, with realistic expectations of selling less than 750K. Will retailers take shipments of 500K to be stockpiled on top of the 250K they're already looking at storing?
HawksWinStanley
Member
But EA has no ties to the series outside of this first game though, right? I thought they were only publishing the first one.
Multi year agreement. Plus Respawn has already confirmed they will make ps4 games.
Imperfected
Member
Morning-after autopsy:
PS4 had an expected fall-off in US numbers. The 300k is probably a little lower than some people were hoping for, but not particularly surprising when you consider the factors influencing their supply situation. I'd expect their worldwide numbers this month to be somewhere to the tune of 500-600k due to air-freight at the end of December and stock banked for the Japanese launch; next month with the Japanese launch counted they should be back up to around 900k-1.1m worldwide, barring an unexpected fall-off in demand.
XB1 had a higher-than-expected fall-off, especially considering everything we know about the stock numbers. I can't say it's completely surprising, considering some of the indicators we had in the past week - things like the Walmart free game deal - but it's still worrisome.
That said, it's a bit early to call the console a complete failure. The economy in January is always depressed due to weather and Christmas binge-spending, and the console still doesn't have any major releases under its belt. I'd say wait until after a price drop/Kinectless SKU and a major exclusive or two before you panic - but start very much anticipating the former things, because these sales will not lead to a tenable situation for Microsoft.
PS360 fell off a cliff. They're eight years old, disgustingly overpriced, and we're getting to the point where there's a reasonable expectation that most of the quality software dropping on them that isn't cross-gen to begin with will be up-ported at some point. Not nearly as shocking as people are making this out to be, all things considered; they're an awful value proposition right now compared to holding out for a PS4, and most consumers don't have the money this time of year to get a PS4 (which they probably couldn't find in December) and grab an overpriced last-gen console.
Expect price drops in the near future. That will be the actual telling point as to whether or not these consoles have any sales potential left in them; the fact they can't sell against their next-gen "competitors"/replacements at the current price is almost a non-statement. Why would you buy them?
Handhelds are fucked. Yeah, I know, I'm all Mr. Sunshine and Unicorn Farts here and you were probably hoping I had a silver lining for this, too. Sorry. Mobile ate their lunch. Both handhelds had shit-tier holiday seasons compared to their internal sales projections, too, so you can't even use the, "coming off two months of record sales" excuse the PS4/XB1 get.
Software had an awful month, and it damn well should have; this was the worst month for AAA releases in recent memory. Even in terms of software from the holidays which should have had a longer tail, it's a cruddy situation - Ghosts is god-awful and BF4 was a rushed mess, they both should have been 2014 releases that were pushed out onto the market due to the, "Fuck it, we'll patch it Live" mentality and they're paying the price for it.
Let's see what Titanfall, inFamous, and Watch_Dogs do in terms of software sales before we start ringing the executioner's bell. I think we all knew the December numbers were a bit bloated considering the slate of software that was actually available, so it shouldn't surprise people this much that it's come home to roost in the January hangover period.
The Industry needs to have a serious sit-down and think about the sustainability of some of their practices - in particular, EA and Activision are hopefully giving due consideration to whether or not rushing products out and ballooning budgets is really the best way to capitalize on their successful franchises - but there's still an enormous amount of revenue being generated, which means that it's more a matter of finding the right price points (both in development dollars and MSRP) to turn that revenue into profit. The industry isn't going to dry up and blow away with how much money is on the table, but the current model of AAA bloat just might.
This probably is a sure sign of the last "conventional" hardware generation, but we already knew that. No one really expected whatever follows the PS4/XB1 to be another fixed-hardware, fixed-price one-and-done seven year wonder. We all knew there was going to be some kind of movement toward services/subscription plans and subsidized tech. Most people already expect that Gen 9 is going to be an "eternal" self-iterating generation rather than another static one. It'll be okay. The industry doesn't have to continue to support the current ridiculous generational model of hardware development to function.
PS4 had an expected fall-off in US numbers. The 300k is probably a little lower than some people were hoping for, but not particularly surprising when you consider the factors influencing their supply situation. I'd expect their worldwide numbers this month to be somewhere to the tune of 500-600k due to air-freight at the end of December and stock banked for the Japanese launch; next month with the Japanese launch counted they should be back up to around 900k-1.1m worldwide, barring an unexpected fall-off in demand.
XB1 had a higher-than-expected fall-off, especially considering everything we know about the stock numbers. I can't say it's completely surprising, considering some of the indicators we had in the past week - things like the Walmart free game deal - but it's still worrisome.
That said, it's a bit early to call the console a complete failure. The economy in January is always depressed due to weather and Christmas binge-spending, and the console still doesn't have any major releases under its belt. I'd say wait until after a price drop/Kinectless SKU and a major exclusive or two before you panic - but start very much anticipating the former things, because these sales will not lead to a tenable situation for Microsoft.
PS360 fell off a cliff. They're eight years old, disgustingly overpriced, and we're getting to the point where there's a reasonable expectation that most of the quality software dropping on them that isn't cross-gen to begin with will be up-ported at some point. Not nearly as shocking as people are making this out to be, all things considered; they're an awful value proposition right now compared to holding out for a PS4, and most consumers don't have the money this time of year to get a PS4 (which they probably couldn't find in December) and grab an overpriced last-gen console.
Expect price drops in the near future. That will be the actual telling point as to whether or not these consoles have any sales potential left in them; the fact they can't sell against their next-gen "competitors"/replacements at the current price is almost a non-statement. Why would you buy them?
Handhelds are fucked. Yeah, I know, I'm all Mr. Sunshine and Unicorn Farts here and you were probably hoping I had a silver lining for this, too. Sorry. Mobile ate their lunch. Both handhelds had shit-tier holiday seasons compared to their internal sales projections, too, so you can't even use the, "coming off two months of record sales" excuse the PS4/XB1 get.
Software had an awful month, and it damn well should have; this was the worst month for AAA releases in recent memory. Even in terms of software from the holidays which should have had a longer tail, it's a cruddy situation - Ghosts is god-awful and BF4 was a rushed mess, they both should have been 2014 releases that were pushed out onto the market due to the, "Fuck it, we'll patch it Live" mentality and they're paying the price for it.
Let's see what Titanfall, inFamous, and Watch_Dogs do in terms of software sales before we start ringing the executioner's bell. I think we all knew the December numbers were a bit bloated considering the slate of software that was actually available, so it shouldn't surprise people this much that it's come home to roost in the January hangover period.
The Industry needs to have a serious sit-down and think about the sustainability of some of their practices - in particular, EA and Activision are hopefully giving due consideration to whether or not rushing products out and ballooning budgets is really the best way to capitalize on their successful franchises - but there's still an enormous amount of revenue being generated, which means that it's more a matter of finding the right price points (both in development dollars and MSRP) to turn that revenue into profit. The industry isn't going to dry up and blow away with how much money is on the table, but the current model of AAA bloat just might.
This probably is a sure sign of the last "conventional" hardware generation, but we already knew that. No one really expected whatever follows the PS4/XB1 to be another fixed-hardware, fixed-price one-and-done seven year wonder. We all knew there was going to be some kind of movement toward services/subscription plans and subsidized tech. Most people already expect that Gen 9 is going to be an "eternal" self-iterating generation rather than another static one. It'll be okay. The industry doesn't have to continue to support the current ridiculous generational model of hardware development to function.
Just asking.
I've just read the thread about the Gamestop Layaway programme for Xbox One. Now, what I want to ask is: could it be that Gamestop needs only to see the first deposit from who participates to the programme in order to count an Xbox One as sold? Is it even possible?
I've just read the thread about the Gamestop Layaway programme for Xbox One. Now, what I want to ask is: could it be that Gamestop needs only to see the first deposit from who participates to the programme in order to count an Xbox One as sold? Is it even possible?
Valkyria
Banned
It is.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I think this month makes it less likely MS will be able to afford that. Basically either the PS4 gap is going to get larger and larger, forcing MS to have to pay a bigger amount to compensate for the lack of profit from the PS4 port. Or Titanfall is so popular it saves XBO, proving the Titanfall franchise to be incredibly valuable, and the exclusivity price tag rising because of the popularity of that franchise.
I guess anything is possible considering they spent $400 million on NFL stuff absolutely no one cares about, but it's certainly not going to be cheap.
K
kittens
Unconfirmed Member
It's so good to see ALBW doing so well! Best Zelda in 20 years.
Are we sure of this? It's important, because, if it is, then One numbers in February could not be exactly truthful.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Just as an aside, I had an interesting rumour on my desk today. Sony's new TV subsidiary is going to be loaded up with 400-500bn yen worth of debt and it would also have around a third of Sony's future pension liabilities. It really sounds like they are going to sell it to the Japanese government at a nominal price and reduce their indebtedness. If they do it as I think they are, then selling the division will reduce their indebtedness by a third and wipe around 100bn yen off the company's pension deficit, but they would take a 200-250bn yen loss on the book value of the division, by my reckoning at least.
If this does happen as I think it will, then I think Sony would suddenly be in a very strong position going forwards. Massive income from financial services, strong growth in their gaming division, strong growth in semi-conductors, strong growth in imaging, strongish growth in smartphones and a huge content ownership arm. I would put their target price up to 3700 yen (from our current target of 1900 iirc) if the rumour is true. Not sure about it though because the same person completely missed the sale of the Vaio division if they are in a position to know this then they should have been in a position to know about that as well.
A random bit of off topic that didn't fit anywhere else...
Saint Gregory
Member
Yes, I think "hurt" would probably be more descriptive. To me something that's "dead" in a business sense is something that's no longer growing and thriving as opposed to buried and in the ground in the literal sense. I certainly wouldn't apply that to restaurants or live entertainment but I would say it applies to most casual electronic devices today.
The 3DS is at something like 45(?) million units sold in three years which doesn't sound bad at all unless you compare it to Apple's iPhone which sells more than that in a quarter. I think with Nintendo's IPs they can still remain relevant in handhelds and even maybe see growth with their next devices but the glory days of the DS are probably gone for good.
rokkerkory
Member
desperate companies are the best companies... let's go MS and Nintendo!
3DS Weekly Average 24.25 29 -16.38%
3DS sales are fine. It launched March 2011 and had a price cut in July 2011 to $169 and none since then. So that's 30 months at that price point which is now mostly saturated. A 13% price cut to $149(also getting past the $150 psychological barrier) and sales should again become comparable to last year(maybe even better). Software sales for 3DS were also up 45% in 2013 compared to 2012.
The contraction in the handheld market on the Nintendo side is because of things like pricing and also most likely because just the Wii U they lost the expanded market. In other words a decline in the Nintendogs/Brain Training brands. Their core audience seems to be robust. I don't see smartphones as having that big an impact yet.
On the Sony handheld side yes there has been a collapse. And yes it is because of Smartphones/Tablets. But it's not because of mobile games. It's because the PSP was a success as multimedia device. Those multimedia features are redundant in the face of smartphones/tablets and so the Vita sales collapsed compared to PSP. The Sony handheld gaming side was always weak and without the multimedia propping it up has also collapsed.
3DS sales are fine. It launched March 2011 and had a price cut in July 2011 to $169 and none since then. So that's 30 months at that price point which is now mostly saturated. A 13% price cut to $149(also getting past the $150 psychological barrier) and sales should again become comparable to last year(maybe even better). Software sales for 3DS were also up 45% in 2013 compared to 2012.
The contraction in the handheld market on the Nintendo side is because of things like pricing and also most likely because just the Wii U they lost the expanded market. In other words a decline in the Nintendogs/Brain Training brands. Their core audience seems to be robust. I don't see smartphones as having that big an impact yet.
On the Sony handheld side yes there has been a collapse. And yes it is because of Smartphones/Tablets. But it's not because of mobile games. It's because the PSP was a success as multimedia device. Those multimedia features are redundant in the face of smartphones/tablets and so the Vita sales collapsed compared to PSP. The Sony handheld gaming side was always weak and without the multimedia propping it up has also collapsed.
I sincerely hope this happens. It sounds like a good strategy moving forward.