Fun with release dates!
OK, seeing the top ten per hardware data from sonycowboy gave me an idea. Each title is listed with the date (month and year) of its release, which allows us to analyze how long the top ten titles for each system have been on the market. I've compiled the data and arrived at the following:
Code:
SOFTWARE SHELFLIFE OF TOP TEN GAMES, PER SYSTEM
Platform | Months on Market (avg) | Avg Release Date
------------|------------------------|------------------
Wii | 3.4 | 21 April 2007
360 | 3.0 | 3 May 2007
PS2 | 3.6 | 15 April 2007
PS3 | 2.9 | 6 May 2007
NDS | 8.3 | 24 Nov 2006
PSP | 12.9 | 6 July 2006
GBA | 35.0 | 3 Sep 2004
NPD TOP 20 | 2.8 | 11 May 2007
What I've done is calculated how long each title in each top ten list has been on the market (as of August 4, 2007) and then found the average age, or shelf-life, of the top selling games for each system. For instance, the Wii has 7 games released in the past three months and three others that were released months before that, but on average those top ten Wii games have been around for about three and a half months. I've listed an "Avg. Release Date" just as a guide to the kind of timespans we're dealing with.
Since this is a snapshot of just the top ten games for each platform (and the NPD Top 20) we aren't getting a view of the entire profile of games sold in July. We are, however, seeing how often new games (which I will roughly categorize as "released in the last 3 months") and old games (everything else). Top ten/twenty lists are composed of a stream of hot new games constantly popping up near the top of sales charts as they are released, muscling out old games and each other, while simultaneously a small number of certain older games, the so-called AAA sales champions, struggle to push back up into the rankings.
Everyone here should know that the software market is cyclical and the cycle is dominated by the holiday sales season stretching from October through mid-December. July is at the bottom of the cycle and follows typical drought months. We might expect the big AAA titles from last December to still be making a showing, and they do: On the home console side that games from last Holiday season have been marginalized in the top tens, but a handful are still there.
Looking first at the NPD Top 20 we see that the late spring/summer software releases have been dominating, which may be a bit surprising considering the traditionally sparse release schedule. The overall Top 20 also has a faster turnaround than any of the individual top ten lists, though PS3 comes very close. In fact, all four of the major home consoles have a rather short shelf life, averaging less than 4 months, meaning publishers could expect their high-profile games to peak early and sink fairly rapidly. The real standout is the PS2: Here is a platform which is over seven years old with a VAST back-catalog of some of the best games ever made in a dozen different genres, yet the development environment is still vibrant enough that consumers feel compelled to buy new titles over old (of course there will be many older PS2 titles further down the list but we're limited to the bestsellers here). PS2 game development is still viable.
What's not viable is the GBA, which shows all the signs of a dead system. The average release date is nearly three years old! The oldest game in the top ten this month was released in
June 2001. These are being purchased by bargain hunters or new gamers (probably children) who are just now buying a GBA or finding themselves in the market for very old games. Here's a chart showing the age of the oldest game in each list:
Code:
AGE OF OLDEST GAME IN TOP TEN, PER SYSTEM
Platform | Months on Market (max) | Earliest Release Date
------------|------------------------|----------------------
Wii | 9 | Nov 2006
360 | 9 | Nov 2006
PS2 | 9 | Nov 2006
PS3 | 9 | Nov 2006
NDS | 21 | Nov 2005
PSP | 26 | June 2005
GBA | 74 | June 2001
NPD TOP 20 | 9 | Nov 2006
Let's look at the contrasting situation of the DS and the PSP. The PSP is in trouble while the DS is not, though the shelf-life of their software doesn't look all that different. This is perhaps the one way that DS and PSP are very similar; both see sales patterns that emphasize the back catalog (compare that to the home console market where new games dominate). The DS has an average game shelf-life of 8.3 months and is evidently experiencing a drought in new game sales right now, which is easily explained by looking at the sparse release list, but our alarm over that fact should be balanced by recognizing the strength of the DS back catalog. Consumers who are still interesting in exploring that catalog are being well served while consumers looking for new content may be frustrated.
PSP's situation is worse. The average shelf-life is 12.9 months, or over a year. The system is pushing old games, but looking at the list of games actually listed in its top ten and comparing it to the overall top twenty we see that even those are pretty slow. Either very few new games are being released or the ones that are released struggle to outsell the likes of a 20-month-old game like Star Wars: Battlefront II, which is troubling. Here's a chart showing the number of new titles, defined as released in the three months prior to August 4, in each top ten list:
Code:
NUMBER OF NEW (3 MONTHS OR LESS) TITLES IN TOP TEN, PER SYSTEM
Platform | No. New Titles | New Titles Ratio (percent)
------------|----------------|---------------------------
Wii | 7 | 7 / 10 = 70%
360 | 8 | 8 / 10 = 80%
PS2 | 7 | 7 / 10 = 70%
PS3 | 8 | 8 / 10 = 80%
NDS | 4 | 4 / 10 = 40%
PSP | 3 | 3 / 10 = 30%
GBA | 0 | None
NPD TOP 20 | 15 (out of 20) | 15 / 20 = 75%
PSP new titles sales aren't dead but I would categorize them as dormant. DS is likewise underperforming, but the expectations are higher (new games are being compared to DS's multi-platinum star performers). All the home consoles are doing very well at pushing new games, including the incredible PS2. And the GBA is dead.