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[gcubed]

just asking as i am not a sales age guru, but why do people think that this christmas will ultimately determine 2 and 3 (1 is Wii, this isnt a question). This will actually be the 1st holiday season the ps3 has seen in Europe, and to think that whoever comes out on top of the ps3/360 battle this holiday (which will undoubtedly be the 360) will be the winner. I dont know, maybe i'm not knowledgable enough... but thats like declaring a winner at the first split in a horse race. *insert cliche that i am sure some will post here*

My only other question is, it appears its taking the ps3 some time to get its leg underneath it. If MS does a 4/5 year cycle again, is Sony again going to try to match it? Lets say in 4 year the PS3 is getting a head of steam, selling well, its cheap and (hypothetical here, please dont start an arguement) its in 2nd place over the 360. MS launches the 720 or whatever the hell it will be called, Sony isnt really in a position to push out another console IMHO. They saw how well the ps2 sustained with no real 1st party support 6 months after ps3 launch, coupled with the fact that besides the Wii, the more expensive consoles still arent truly taking off to new heights, does Sony dare to release its ps4 in the middle of the new Xbox's lifespan? Has it ever been done? Successfully?

With the way things are looking, the launch delay as well as finally some good first party software JUST hitting the ps3 this coming holiday as well as early next year, i think Sony has backed themselves into a corner with trying to match a 5 year lifespan of the Xbox.

 

[F#A#Oo]

Nintendo and MS know that a console cycle can only last so long...Sony even knows but the whole 10 year thing is a marketing tactic to justify the awful pricing.

5-6 years is maybe a little too long as well...

PC stuff has over-taken console stuff already imagine the gap in 5-6 years time. And yeah sure we haven't seen the peak of the graphics of either two console's but my bet is it will not compare to PC stuff.

Which is why I think Nintendo did the right thing...they left the horse-power race...and let MS and Sony slug it out for the next 5-6 years over a pie that will leave both companies less well to do and possibly even in the process of pulling out in 5-6 years...

In the mean time Nintendo is raking in money and is probably already thinking ahead at the next generation of products. MS from recent news/conferences have shown they have no idea how to position themselves as a console leader and might pull out entirely even. Sony on the other hand have become complacent and really don't seem to know the direction to take gaming either and with Kutaragi gone so does his very ambitious blue-print of gaming...which in many ways was/is a wonderful concept but far too ambitious.

Is it any coincidence that it took the only real soley games company to come through and light up the tunnel ahead whilst Sony and MS are still thinking and planning in antiquated ways?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Who would want to even bother trying to compete against Nintendo?

Well, many already did in the last 10 years, but now there are millions more reasons to do so.

just asking as i am not a sales age guru, but why do people think that this christmas will ultimately determine 2 and 3 (1 is Wii, this isnt a question). This will actually be the 1st holiday season the ps3 has seen in Europe, and to think that whoever comes out on top of the ps3/360 battle this holiday (which will undoubtedly be the 360) will be the winner. I dont know, maybe i'm not knowledgable enough... but thats like declaring a winner at the first split in a horse race. *insert cliche that i am sure some will post here*

And I'm no horse race guru, but if MS has 3 successful holidays under their belt, besting Sony's direct competition in 1-2 of them worldwide, that's a pretty big chunk of a generation. PS3 already seems to be a third, but falling several million more behind X360 in the space of a couple months would further solidify it.

My only other question is, it appears its taking the ps3 some time to get its leg underneath it. If MS does a 4/5 year cycle again, is Sony again going to try to match it? Lets say in 4 year the PS3 is getting a head of steam, selling well, its cheap and (hypothetical here, please dont start an arguement) its in 2nd place over the 360. MS launches the 720 or whatever the hell it will be called, Sony isnt really in a position to push out another console IMHO. They saw how well the ps2 sustained with no real 1st party support 6 months after ps3 launch, coupled with the fact that besides the Wii, the more expensive consoles still arent truly taking off to new heights, does Sony dare to release its ps4 in the middle of the new Xbox's lifespan? Has it ever been done? Successfully?

If within a few years Sony has pushed MS back to third place, it's MS who would be worrying about what Sony is doing and not the other way around. X360's lead this time around wouldn't have made much difference if PS3 didn't get off to an even slower start.

With the way things are looking, the launch delay as well as finally some good first party software JUST hitting the ps3 this coming holiday as well as early next year, i think Sony has backed themselves into a corner with trying to match a 5 year lifespan of the Xbox.

Well, they didn't. PS2 was around 6.5 years before PS3 was released.

 

[gcubed]

Well, they didn't. PS2 was around 6.5 years before PS3 was released.

as far as the last point, i know they didnt which is why i asked. It also seems obvious that even launching a year later then the 360, they still rushed the launch. I thought possibly a snowball effect, so next year they would be 2 years later, which is a weird situation to be in.

Which is why I think Nintendo did the right thing...they left the horse-power race...and let MS and Sony slug it out for the next 5-6 years over a pie that will leave both companies less well to do and possibly even in the process of pulling out in 5-6 years...

i agree 100% with the first part of your statement here... Nintendo introduced less advanced hardware at over half the price of the ps3 and 150 cheaper then the 360 (launch prices) and got a shitton of consoles out there quickly. The price and profitability allowed/allows nintendo to take a different approach in the future.

Although i still dont think consoles are competing with PCs at any level. It is cost prohibitve for most console owners to keep a pc updated enough so that they are always above console levels.

 

[Speevy]

What are the current comparison totals for



PS3 - Through July 2007 (WW and NA)

and

Xbox 360 Through July 2006 (WW and NA)

 

[Xisiqomelir]

What are the current comparison totals for



PS3 - Through July 2007 (WW and NA)

and

Xbox 360 Through July 2006 (WW and NA)

Use the takeover watch.

EDIT: Oh, historical? I wouldn't try to guess WW, but for America:

360: 2,208,822 (Jul '06)

PS3: 1,609,649 (Jul '07)

 

[HylianTom]

Let's face it: half of the negative Wii memes have been started in some way by 1up Yours and now that Luke Smith is gone that initiative got cut off at the head.

There are still plenty of other gaming "journalists" who include a healthy amount of snark in their Wii coverage. Apparently, they (and their publishers) have decided that they can financially afford to diss the new industry leader. Good luck to 'em when Wii owners decide to seek coverage without the attitude..

 

[C.T.]

people who think sony planned the life circle of ps1 and ps2 to be over 6 years are wrong and fooled by Sony. Basically, the market decides. Sony had such a big monopoly on games everyone developed for it and gamers had to buy a ps2. With ps3 it seemes they thought it would naturally progress this way and actually built a console which could last longer. The problem? its hard to develop for like the ps2 but this time the smaller userbase compared to 360 won't convince developers to digg this deep into the console hardware.

@

Gcub

thats why what you said makes no sense. 360 and Wii are leading (now) and the gap becomes bigger and bigger. Why would Microsoft need to launch their 360 successor before Sony launches ps4 and why should Sony "counterattack" with the launch of the ps4? Makes no sense. You can't gain momentum out of your ass. Userbase builds softwaresupport (exklusives etc.) which has a positive effect on userbase, its a circle. Sure we could speculate about this scenario, but the trends are indicators that it wouldn't turn out this way.

 

[Maxwell House]

At the rate the two are going now, 360 will have the userbase to last longer than PS3 does. I expect PS3 to be the one killed off first, with 360 able to last 6+ years based off a nice installed base.

I think MS will come out with the next Xbox in 2012 or so, but this time around, will be able to continue support for 360 at the same time as well.

 

[Ikael]

Why do NPD threads always end up with how third-party is doing on Nintendo Wii/DS talk?

Because some people needs to convince theirselves that the massive Wii sales will never, ever translate into better third party support.

 

[Zoramon089]

As far as Nintendo and 3rd party support is anyone really that surprised? Nintendo has always been shitty to devs

Lol, it makes me laugh everytime people say this when they have NO substantial proof to back this up. This isn' the early 90's. This isn't the Nintendo of the SNES era or N64 era anymore.

I mean devs are a few steps behind cause of all the secrecy about the hardware features before launch and the nature of the console itself. Now we have issues with 3rd parties wanting to use Mii's and EA will be the first with Fifa 08 but it's just another example of Nintendo being in control, EA's hard to refuse everyone else isn't.

Uh huh, as if 3rd parties lack of initiative in learning the hardware (and not just releasing PS2 ports which don't come anywhere near to exploiting the true potential of the system) is Nintendo's fault. I don't think the fact that EA is just now using Mii's is because they didn't have access to whatever library they needed to implement them before. I think it's more of the fact that they're finally trying to differentiate the Wii Fifa from the others (instead of straight porting with waggle) by using some of the Wii specific features

 

[bdoughty]

Because some people needs to convince theirselves that the massive Wii sales will never, ever translate into better third party support.

Or that some Wii owners/Nintendo zealots need to convince themselves that the massive Wii sales will, one day, translate into better third party support.

Lol, it makes me laugh everytime people say this when they have NO substantial proof to back this up. This isn' the early 90's. This isn't the Nintendo of the SNES era or N64 era anymore.

So the Gamecube all of a sudden was a third party powerhouse? I would imagine NPD sales figures are substantial enough proof. I can pretty much guarantee that through the Gamecube lifespan that no multi-console sports game (PS2/Xbox/GCN) ever came close to being the #1 SKU. Love or hate sports games they are big sellers.

 

[schuelma]

Or that some Wii owners/Nintendo zealots need to convince themselves that the massive Wii sales will, one day, translate into better third party support.

You really don't think its better than GC already? I know there hasn't been many blockbusters yet, but 3rd parties are announcing a lot of pretty decent stuff recently.

 

[schuelma]

I can pretty much guarantee that through the Gamecube lifespan that no multi-console sports game (PS2/Xbox/GCN) ever came close to being the #1 SKU. Love or hate sports games they are big sellers.

Well, Tiger Woods 07 Wii worldwide is very likely the best selling SKU.

 

[Evlar]

There hasn't been a moment in the past twenty-four years that third parties HAVEN'T been competing with Nintendo. Every single game on the market, in some sense, competes with every other one, regardless of the system.

 

[Xeke]

Well, Tiger Woods 07 Wii worldwide is very likely the best selling SKU.

Yeah. But that doesn't count because it's the best selling SKU.

 

[donny2112]

for America:

360: 2,208,822 (Jul '06)

PS3: 1,609,649 (Jul '07)

And worldwide,

Here's the worldwide graph with the Wii through 9 months. Warning: It could be hilarious disconcerting interesting.

 

[Evlar]

And worldwide,

Here's the worldwide graph with the Wii through 9 months.

Damn... By looking at that you would guess that the markets for each were identical, though we know for certain they aren't.

 

[Xeke]

And worldwide,

Here's the worldwide graph with the Wii through 9 months. Warning: It could be hilarious disconcerting interesting.

Haha. And people are still saying it isn't over.:lol

 

[bdoughty]

You really don't think its better than GC already? I know there hasn't been many blockbusters yet, but 3rd parties are announcing a lot of pretty decent stuff recently.

I agree it is better than the GC. I was simply pointing out that the person I quoted had left the Gamecube off his list.

Well, Tiger Woods 07 Wii worldwide is very likely the best selling SKU.

Okay so one 3rd party title out of the past few hundred? Of course I am exaggerating and there are probably a few others. Still the fact remains that multi-console games on Nintendo do not perform as well. In the sports department it normally requires the developer to throw in some Nintendo mascots to generate a few more sales (See NBA Street 3).


Next month will be interesting seeing how Madden does in year 2 on the Wii. Pretty sure Tiger will meet the same fate, but that's just my 2 cents.

 

[Xeke]

I agree it is better than the GC. I was simply pointing out that the person I quoted had left the Gamecube off his list.




Okay so one 3rd party title out of the past few hundred? Of course I am exaggerating and there are probably a few others. Still the fact remains that multi-console games on Nintendo do not perform as well. In the sports department it normally requires the developer to throw in some Nintendo mascots to generate a few more sales (See NBA Street 3).


Next month will be interesting seeing how Madden does in year 2 on the Wii. Pretty sure Tiger will meet the same fate, but that's just my 2 cents.

Harry Potter Wii was also the highest.

 

[Odysseus]

the graph including the wii is the market sending a big middle finger to sony and microsoft. that's the type of graph you would have expected to see if you were asked in 2005, only the participants switched places.

 

[bdoughty]

Harry Potter Wii was also the highest.

Well that goes without saying. I mean you have the Wii controller to act as a wand and all.

* I have never seen a Harry Potter movie or book and have no idea if wands or flying brooms, etc are involved.



2 out of a few hundred. You go get em girl.

 

[schuelma]

I agree it is better than the GC. I was simply pointing out that the person I quoted had left the Gamecube off his list.




Okay so one 3rd party title out of the past few hundred? Of course I am exaggerating and there are probably a few others. Still the fact remains that multi-console games on Nintendo do not perform as well. In the sports department it normally requires the developer to throw in some Nintendo mascots to generate a few more sales (See NBA Street 3).


Next month will be interesting seeing how Madden does in year 2 on the Wii. Pretty sure Tiger will meet the same fate, but that's just my 2 cents.

I'm sorry, but you don't have that much evidence to make that claim this generation. Tiger Woods, Harry Potter, and most likely The BIGS sold better on the Wii.

Re: Madden and Tiger Woods. Madden will be interesting. I think it may surprise. Tiger Woods..I suspect you might be right, but IMO a big factor is that 07 came out like 4 months ago. Even you must admit that is probably going to depress sales when the previous version is pretty new and still selling well.

 

[FitzOfRage]

So the Gamecube all of a sudden was a third party powerhouse? I would imagine NPD sales figures are substantial enough proof. I can pretty much guarantee that through the Gamecube lifespan that no multi-console sports game (PS2/Xbox/GCN) ever came close to being the #1 SKU. Love or hate sports games they are big sellers.

Ehh... you're completely changing the point he was commenting on. Nintendo at one point was clearly very hostile towards the development community at large when they had the market clout to do so. But implying they;re currently in the same state is just wrong, regardless of how poorly or well 3rd parties sell.

 

[schuelma]

Well that goes without saying. I mean you have the Wii controller to act as a wand and all.

* I have never seen a Harry Potter movie or book and have no idea if wands or flying brooms, etc are involved.



2 out of a few hundred. You go get em girl.

So wait, multi- console games that sell the best on Wii don't count if they are a natural fit for the controller? :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[Evlar]

2 out of a few hundred. You go get em girl.

Out of how many? We're counting Wii + Cube? Why?

Why not count Wii + Cube + N64 + SNES + NES? I bet I know why...

 

[gkryhewy]

I agree it is better than the GC. I was simply pointing out that the person I quoted had left the Gamecube off his list.

The GC was Nintendo's low point in terms of console market share - of course it's going to have the fewest lead SKUs and best-selling SKUs among multiplatform games. You're nothing if not consistent, but I doubt you'll be saying the same thing next year.

 

[schuelma]

Out of how many? We're counting Wii + Cube? Why?

Why not count Wii + Cube + N64 + SNES + NES? I bet I know why...

Yeah I don't know where he is going with this. It's not like there has been many multi console releases with all 3 new gen consoles getting versions.

 

[Souldriver]

Well that goes without saying. I mean you have the Wii controller to act as a wand and all.

* I have never seen a Harry Potter movie or book and have no idea if wands or flying brooms, etc are involved.



2 out of a few hundred. You go get em girl.

Out of a few hundred?
The Wii is not even a year old? Out of the few multi-platform games that've come out for all 3 systems, the Wii has a fair amount of them selling as good/better than it's 360/PS3 counterparts. And the other multiplatform games perform better on the 360, in the USA, which is not that surprising really, considering the userbase.

It's possible that the Nintendo curse could continue, but at this point I think the Wii could be the turnaround.

 

[Brak]

Ehh... you're completely changing the point he was commenting on. Nintendo at one point was clearly very hostile towards the development community at large when they had the market clout to do so. But implying they;re currently in the same state is just wrong, regardless of how poorly or well 3rd parties sell.

I was just going to post this.

There's a lot of goalpost shifting going on in here.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

thats why what you said makes no sense. 360 and Wii are leading (now) and the gap becomes bigger and bigger. Why would Microsoft need to launch their 360 successor before Sony launches ps4 and why should Sony "counterattack" with the launch of the ps4? Makes no sense. You can't gain momentum out of your ass. Userbase builds softwaresupport (exklusives etc.) which has a positive effect on userbase, its a circle. Sure we could speculate about this scenario, but the trends are indicators that it wouldn't turn out this way.

I can't help but think that the PS4 will be a PS3 + Wii style waggle packaged with some nifty wii type games in a shiny new case touting full backwards compatibility.

It's either that or the PS4 will be a Microsoft product.

I have no faith in Sony's ability to turn a profit this generation.

 

[Brak]

I have no faith in Sony's ability to turn a profit this generation.

Ironically, I think their First Party games will bail them out.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Out of a few hundred?
The Wii is not even a year old? Out of the few multi-platform games that've come out for all 3 systems, the Wii has a fair amount of them selling as good/better than it's 360/PS3 counterparts. And the other multiplatform games perform better on the 360, in the USA, which is not that surprising really, considering the userbase.

It's possible that the Nintendo curse could continue, but at this point I think the Wii could be the turnaround.

Last I knew Marvel Ultimate Alliance is similar too. The Wii version outsold the PS3 version handily, and undersold the 360 version by less then 70,000 units.

Cheaper development, and onpar with the American market leader in sales. The Wii technically has about three more million sellers then the 360 in the same time span, and many more titles that have made a profit.

His arguement is full of it. If any software market is bleak, it's the PS3's.

 

[Evlar]

I think Sony can still pull it out (as a competitor for second place) if they hang on to the big flagship games from Japanese publishers. That won't happen if PS3 dips back down to 10k per week again for an extended time.

 

[F#A#Oo]

Ironically, I think their First Party games will bail them out.

Like Lair and Heavenly Sword? Riiiight!

 

[Jammy]

I can't help but think that the PS4 will be a PS3 + Wii style waggle packaged with some nifty wii type games in a shiny new case touting full backwards compatibility.

It's either that or the PS4 will be a Microsoft product.

I have no faith in Sony's ability to turn a profit this generation.

:lol :lol :lol

 

[donny2112]

I can't help but think that the PS4 will be a PS3 + Wii style waggle packaged with some nifty wii type games in a shiny new case touting full backwards compatibility.

:lol

I think I've read that idea somewhere before...

 

[FitzOfRage]

Still the fact remains that multi-console games on Nintendo do not perform as well.

No, the fact remains that they did not do well on the GC. I mean the biggest failing with the argument that 3rd parties can't make money on Nintendo systems is that it only works when you ignore the Nintendo systems where 3rd parties were able to make money. I mean obviously quite a few companies built up their businesses based on the success of titles launched on Nintendo platforms.

It's just so silly that some people believe that since it's not true now, it has never been true, and can never be true ever again.

There is no doubt, if the Wii is far and away the best selling platform in the coming years, and gets strong 3rd party support, it will have strong 3rd party sales. That's a pretty simple formula that adds up for any platform. I don't see how anyone can argue that.

There is a case to be made that its hardware sales will NOT hold up, or that they will NOT get strong 3rd party support, and it might not be taken seriously by the development community. You can also clearly argue that the best selling 3rd party titles will not outsell Nintendo's best selling 1st party titles (though that really doesn't negate the success of any game in its own right).

But it's hard to argue that even if you concede those, the fact that Nintendo's name is on the box will ultimately ensure that consumers will refuse to touch any 3rd party titles.

 

[felipeko]

Don't worry about bdoughty guys.. He make those crazy assumptions because he knows that people buy Nintendo consoles only for Nintendo games.. But don't time will show how wrong he is, and he will leave GAF for a better place.

 

[Shaheed79]

It's like the DS all over again. After it's success the only bastion for naysayers were to criticize every 3rd party game that didn't sell gangbusters knowing the quality of those games and lack of effort 3rd parties put into those games were the real reasons for their average sales. Once DS secured market dominance then publishers upped the quality of DS projects their sales benefited as a result. Thus the cycle of ignorance continues with Wii.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

:lol

I think I've read that idea somewhere before...

I think I've posted it before. Others may have had similar ideas.

 

[Brak]

Like Lair and Heavenly Sword? Riiiight!

Well we'll see, but you can't really argue that Sony is making a fuckton of games. Considering a consistent lack of 3rd party exclusives, that will only help the 1st party games even more.

 

[FitzOfRage]

I'm actually a little skeptical that Nintendo can win over 3rd parties myself. At this point, assuming everything doesn't blow up in their face, they may have the next majorly dominant system on their hands, or they might end up with something in between the SNES and N64 in terms of market share, and the difference will probably be whether they get 3rd parties behind the system.

I just don't get how people can kind of breeze by that as if winning over 3rd parties (getting real commitments from them, not token cash ins) and maintaining hardware sales dominance is one thing, but then getting those 3rd party games to sell will be the hard part. That's the easy part at that point.

 

[felipeko]

I'm actually a little skeptical that Nintendo can win over 3rd parties myself. At this point, assuming everything doesn't blow up in their face, they may have the next majorly dominant system on their hands, or they might end up with something in between the SNES and N64 in terms of market share, and the difference will probably be whether they get 3rd parties behind the system.

I just don't get how people can kind of breeze by that as if winning over 3rd parties (getting real commitments from them, not token cash ins) and maintaining hardware sales dominance is one thing, but then getting those 3rd party games to sell will be the hard part. That's the easy part at that point.

No. The hard part wil get those 3rd party games to be good. If they are good they will sell.


And this gen is not last gen. If developers refuse to support the Wii (good support, because they will be competing with Nintendo) they will have to get profit from what?
50 million (multiplataform) userbase and high costs of development?
If last gen some had trouble with a 100 million userbase and not so high cost, i wonder what will happen now.

 

[bdoughty]

Don't worry about bdoughty guys.. He make those crazy assumptions because he knows that people buy Nintendo consoles only for Nintendo games.. But don't time will show how wrong he is, and he will leave GAF for a better place.

Aren't you banned for life? Oh no that will be in January.

Crazy assumptions. :lol Pot meet kettle.


{schuelma}

There was jest involved in the Harry Potter comment. About the type of people who would see the movie and buy the game.

Where do get the info from that has The Biggs selling better on the Wii? I hope you are not referring to the top 10 lists on page one?



{Soludriver and the others}

I was referring to hundreds as in over the past few years, not just the existance of the wii.



{gkrykewy}


Your avatar is the weak sauce.

 

[FitzOfRage]

No. The hard part wil get those 3rd party games to be good. If they are good they will sell.

That's what I was saying in my convoluted way

 

[Evlar]

{Soludriver and the others}

I was referring to hundreds as in over the past few years, not just the existance of the wii.

Oh I know exactly what you are doing. The question I asked was "Why?"

 

[bdoughty]

Oh I know exactly what you are doing. The question I asked was "Why?"

Because I have yet to be proven that all these Wii owners are all that different then Nintendo owners of previous systems.

 

[TunaLover]

moved to gif thread...

*runs away*