Support NeoGAF

[mclem]

Because I have yet to be proven that all these Wii owners are all that different then Nintendo owners of previous systems.

Like all the Nintendo owners who purchased Street Fighter II? Contra? Resident Evil 4? Trauma Centre?

Hint: There is no single entity of "Nintendo owners", who operate under a single mindset and eschew third-party software at all costs. Trying to paint them all as such is disingenuous at best.

 

[F#A#Oo]

Well we'll see, but you can't really argue that Sony is making a fuckton of games. Considering a consistent lack of 3rd party exclusives, that will only help the 1st party games even more.

Well lets take a look at what is being developed and published by Sony...

Warhawk
Uncharted: Drake's Fortune
God of War 3
SOCOM
Infamous
Killzone 2
SingStar
WipeOut
Little Big Planet
Afrika
Free Realms
Hot Shots Golf 5
Untold Legends: Dark Kingdom
Brave Arms
Buzz! Quiz TV
Chain Limit
Eyedentify
The Agency
Eight Days
Eye of Judgment
Folklore
Getaway 3
Gran Turismo 5
Heavy Rain
Jak and Daxter: The Lost Frontier
Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction
White Knight Story

Seems alot of games being developed and published by Sony to me. Ofcourse my point still stands...except for a handful of titles...Sony's 1st party stuff isn't going to be as strong as some would like to make out them to be.

 

[.dmc]

Hint: There is no single entity of "Nintendo owners", who operate under a single mindset and eschew third-party software at all costs. Trying to paint them all as such is disingenuous at best.

Quoted For Logic. Not that I expect that to change bdoughty's convictions..

 

[Plinko]

Well lets take a look at what is being developed and published by Sony...
Jak and Daxter: The Lost Frontier

When did that happen?

 

[FitzOfRage]

Because I have yet to be proven that all these Wii owners are all that different then Nintendo owners of previous systems.

Well they're not, in the sense that they're just people looking for entertainment. But what Nintendo consoles sold well, got strong 3rd party support, but still couldn't move 3rd party titles, that's what I want to know.

The idea that the reason 3rd parties didn't sell well on the GC simply because of the name Nintendo on the box almost impies that the 3rd party lineup for whatever reason should have sold well (as if it was good), and some strange factor just prevented them from reaching consumers.

I mean maybe I'm assuming too much, but you would agree the GC had the worst developer support of the 3 right?

Because if that's true, the argument becomes "yeah the GC had the worst sales, and the worst 3rd party support, but that's no reason for 3rd party GC games to sell the worst" and that's where I scratch my head.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

moved to gif thread...

*runs away*

I got spanked pretty thoroughly for that same thing.

Doesn't mean I didn't enjoy it.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Madden Wii is arguably the worst version of the bunch without the added benefit of the PS2's massive userbase acquired tjrough the years. And the marketing push simply wasn't there. I expect it to be the worse selling of the bunch.
Could also be a sign of the end of EA's dominance and the rise of Nintendo(Activision if you only count third parties-Guitar Hero 3 is bound to be the best selling third party game in holiday 08). EA is losing it this gen.

 

[bdoughty]

Quoted For Logic. Not that I expect that to change bdoughty's convictions..

Logic? Not really when you look at where my main argument has always been (Yearly Sports Games). I am not one of those "Wii is the Kiddy" types.

Only thing that will change my OPINION, is to see Wii owners purchasing games like Madden, Fifa, TW, etc in 08/09, etc, etc.

 

[bdoughty]

Well they're not, in the sense that they're just people looking for entertainment. But what Nintendo consoles sold well, got strong 3rd party support, but still couldn't move 3rd party titles, that's what I want to know.

The idea that the reason 3rd parties didn't sell well on the GC almost impies that the 3rd party support was somehow good, and some strange factor just prevented them from reaching consumers.

I mean maybe I'm assuming too much, but you would agree the GC had the worst developer support of the 3 right?

Because if that's true, the argument becomes "yeah the GC had the worst sales, and the worst 3rd party support, but that's no reason for 3rd party GC games to sell the worst" and that's where I scratch my head.

Depends... I think the Gamecube not being fully supported online was a big part of the issue for sports gamers. Go take a look at some of the Maddens from last generation, the best looking of the multi console games just happened to be the Gamecube.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Depends... I think the Gamecube not being fully supported online was a big part of the issue for sports gamers. Go take a look at some of the Maddens from last generation, the best looking of the multi console games just happened to be the Gamecube.

Not really.

The Xbox also didn't have many online EA sports titles, and yet it still garnered many times the sales of the GCN versions. I have a feeling this fall will be a complete reversal of sorts. The 360 and PS2 versions selling the lions share, the Wii version making up the third position of the consoles, and the PS3 version selling worst, mainly because of it's marketshare.

 

[FitzOfRage]

Depends... I think the Gamecube not being fully supported online was a big part of the issue for sports gamers. Go take a look at some of the Maddens from last generation, the best looking of the multi console games just happened to be the Gamecube.

Did someone set their stop watch to see how long it takes for 1 out of a few hundred to become a valid point in his mind?

 

[bdoughty]

Not really.

The Xbox also didn't have many online EA sports titles, and yet it still garnered many times the sales of the GCN versions. I have a feeling this fall will be a complete reversal of sorts. The 360 and PS2 versions selling the lions share, the Wii version making up the third position of the consoles, and the PS3 version selling worst, mainly because of it's marketshare.

The Xbox had the sports gamer, which the Gamecube did not. While the early versions of Madden/NCAA were not online many other sports games were from the get-go (Microsofts sports games, 2k games) with Xbox Live being a very attractive feature for sports gamers. So yea, online had a big impact even without EA being online from the start. Plus EA had many of those titles online for the PS2, which further adds to online being a factor.

 

[bdoughty]

Did someone set their stop watch to see how long it takes for 1 out of a few hundred to become a valid point in his mind?

So I should take hours of time to list a multitude of examples just to please you? The Online aspect would cover a large range of games to begin with. Madden was simply one example.

 

[DuckRacer]

(Activision if you only count third parties-Guitar Hero 3 is bound to be the best selling third party game in holiday 08).

Zounds! Looks like Rock Band has no competition this year.

Spoiler

Yes, I know it was a mistake.

 

[FitzOfRage]

The Xbox had the sports gamer, which the Gamecube did not. While the early versions of Madden/NCAA were not online many other sports games were from the get-go (Microsofts sports games, 2k games) with Xbox Live being a very attractive feature for sports gamers. So yea, online had a big impact even without EA being online from the start. Plus EA had many of those titles online for the PS2, which further adds to online being a factor.

That's an argument I can at least wrap my head around. The GC had a smaller selection of sports titles, and usually lacked the features of other versions(online wasn't the only thing, remember the first version of Madden on the GC had its franchise mode slightly cut down to fit it on the GC's memory cards), and that ultimately hurt sales. That's different from people refusing to buy it because it is on a Nintendo system.

So I should take hours of time to list a multitude of examples just to please you? The Online aspect would cover a large range of games to begin with. Madden was simply one example.

You tell me. Maybe I should frame this in a way so that you can see what I see.

Go take a look at some of the Maddens from last generation, the best looking of the multi console games just happened to be the Gamecube.

Okay so one 3rd party title out of the past few hundred?

So I should take hours of time to list a multitude of examples just to please you? The Online aspect would cover a large range of games to begin with. Madden was simply one example.

2 out of a few hundred. You go get em girl.

I mean bdoughty has a point, I just don't see why bdoughty won't listen to him (or maybe I do see why...).

 

[.dmc]

Logic? Not really when you look at where my main argument has always been (Yearly Sports Games). I am not one of those "Wii is the Kiddy" types.

Only thing that will change my OPINION, is to see Wii owners purchasing games like Madden, Fifa, TW, etc in 08/09, etc, etc.

Look, if you want to give your argument any legitmacy, then make it about sports gamers, not Nintendo customers. Saying 'in my opinion, sports gamers are not moving to Nintendo, which will be marked by a decline in yearly sales of sports titles' sounds reasonable. Saying 'Nintendo gamers don't buy sports games' makes you sound like an N-tard baiting troll. There is no such thing as the 'Nintendo gamer', so stop talking about them.

 

[schuelma]

{Soludriver and the others}

I was referring to hundreds as in over the past few years, not just the existance of the Wi.

That's your problem. Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, you seem to still think the audience buying the Wii is the old Gamecube crowd.

 

[TunaLover]

I got spanked pretty thoroughly for that same thing.

Doesn't mean I didn't enjoy it.

Nothing to see just move along people :lol

The sense of risk surely is worth

 

[Haunted]

Yeah. But that doesn't count because it's the best selling SKU.

Made me lol. :lol

I can't help but think that the PS4 will be a PS3 + Wii style waggle packaged with some nifty wii type games in a shiny new case touting full backwards compatibility.

I'd buy it for 250€ if the controller works as well or better as the Wiimote does. (will they finally drop the DualShock design? fuck, I hope so)

 

[Grampa Simpson]

I'd buy it for 250€ if the controller works as well or better as the Wiimote does. (will they finally drop the DualShock design? fuck, I hope so)

I for one see it as being paired with the 45nm drop. If the Wikipedia article is on the ball, that should happen sometime in 2008. Assume from that is that Sony will be ready to have a redesigned PS3 out by the end of 2009. Instead they call it the PS4, drop the hard drive, add some flash (1 gig?) to the USB bus, and swap the shockaxis for a wiimote clone. Sell for $250. PS1/PS2 compatibility becomes a free download, but requires that you have a sixaxis or shockaxis, and PS3 compatibility is also a free download, but requres that you add a hard drive. They probably go the 360 route on hard drives and require that you purchase a special Sony branded hard drive.

I should really stop now before I attract DrGAKMAN to this thread.

 

[donny2112]

well, i guess that proves you cant outsell a system 100 dollars cheaper than you no matter who you are

Yep. That's why the GameCube launched @ $100 less than the PS2 and Xbox and totally destroyed those two to take over the worldwide lead in less than a year. The PlayStation brand didn't help Sony with the PS2 versus the GameCube, so why should it help the PS3 versus the Wii?

Some people seriously don't understand that the only reason the Wii is winning is because of price.

Just goes to show....price is king.

QFT

Is this the first time, in any market, that the DS has lost to the Wii?

The Wii was > DS in January in the U.S.

Price...is everything.

a $129 console outselling a $300/$400 console? Whodathunk.

A $300 console outselling a $500 console? Whodathunk.

A $129 handheld outselling a $169 handheld? Whodathunk

QFT again. And let me just add ...

$200 GameCube outselling a $300 PS2/Xbox? Whodathunk.

This man speaks the truth.

Ps3:

- outsells Xbox by about 100k a month on japan

Before it can outsell the 360 by 100K a month in Japan, it first has to sell 100K a month in Japan. Just FYI.

it's been almost 2 years and the 360 still hasn't topped it in a month.

April 2006.

If you want to blame anything, blame the nice NeoGAF November NPD video that made it to YouTube, Newsweek, EA execs, Ubisoft, and eventually to NPD.

Hubris. It was a nice video, but nowhere near worth the cost.

 

[F#A#Oo]

In terms of PS3 sales how does this compared to past console's...
Say the GCN, Dreamcast, SNES?

Relative to them is the PS3 tracking better then them in the same time period?

 

[Jeff-DSA]

In terms of PS3 sales how does this compared to past console's...
Say the GCN, Dreamcast, SNES?

Relative to them is the PS3 tracking better then them in the same time period?

Even if it is, you have to consider that the market has expanded significantly since the SNES days and even the Dreamcast days.

 

[nextgeneration]

In terms of PS3 sales how does this compared to past console's...
Say the GCN, Dreamcast, SNES?

Relative to them is the PS3 tracking better then them in the same time period?

I don't have numbers for SNES or Dreamcast, but it's tracking below GC right now in the same time period.

 

[F#A#Oo]

Hmm yeah...I guess it's hard to say...

Tracking worse then GCN? that I didn't expect...

Does this also mean that the 360 is tracking worse then the X-Box?

 

[Beer Monkey]

Hmm yeah...I guess it's hard to say...

Tracking worse then GCN? that I didn't expect...

Does this also mean that the 360 is tracking worse then the X-Box?

No, not any more, but given that it costs hundreds more, it would have if it hadn't grown substantial mindshare.

If anybody had told me years ago that Xbox 2 would sell better at $299-$399 than Xbox 1 did at $199, I would have laughed my ass off.

 

[rs7k]

Hmm yeah...I guess it's hard to say...

Tracking worse then GCN? that I didn't expect...

Does this also mean that the 360 is tracking worse then the X-Box?

360 is tracking at about the same IIRC, if not a little better,

 

[Haunted]

I for one see it as being paired with the 45nm drop. If the Wikipedia article is on the ball, that should happen sometime in 2008. Assume from that is that Sony will be ready to have a redesigned PS3 out by the end of 2009. Instead they call it the PS4, drop the hard drive, add some flash (1 gig?) to the USB bus, and swap the shockaxis for a wiimote clone. Sell for $250. PS1/PS2 compatibility becomes a free download, but requires that you have a sixaxis or shockaxis, and PS3 compatibility is also a free download, but requres that you add a hard drive. They probably go the 360 route on hard drives and require that you purchase a special Sony branded hard drive.

I should really stop now before I attract DrGAKMAN to this thread.

holy shit. This is the road to their comeback - I'd buy it. Only drop the extra HDD crap. They could sell this at 250$ for a miniscule loss in 2009 with HDD intact.

 

[Jokeropia]

360 tracked behind Xbox in its first 14 months, but finally overtook it on month #15 and has stayed slightly ahead since.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

I for one see it as being paired with the 45nm drop. If the Wikipedia article is on the ball, that should happen sometime in 2008. Assume from that is that Sony will be ready to have a redesigned PS3 out by the end of 2009. Instead they call it the PS4, drop the hard drive, add some flash (1 gig?) to the USB bus, and swap the shockaxis for a wiimote clone. Sell for $250. PS1/PS2 compatibility becomes a free download, but requires that you have a sixaxis or shockaxis, and PS3 compatibility is also a free download, but requres that you add a hard drive. They probably go the 360 route on hard drives and require that you purchase a special Sony branded hard drive.

I should really stop now before I attract DrGAKMAN to this thread.

You can't escape me, I am sitting there I am everywhere at once! I really don't know what Sony can do at this point or in their future...and I could really care less, Nintendomination has set in and the damage to Sony is already done (no come backs, it's too late). I think the better question is what will Nintendo do to leapfrom the competition again "next gen" wise.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

360 tracked behind Xbox in its first 14 months, but finally overtook it on month #15 and has stayed slightly ahead since.

Uh, let's celebrate? Basically, Wii has to outsell the PS2 lifetime or you'll see an even smaller market. To allow our lifestyle to continue, everyone has to support the Wii.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Yep. That's why the GameCube launched @ $100 less than the PS2 and Xbox and totally destroyed those two to take over the worldwide lead in less than a year. The PlayStation brand didn't help Sony with the PS2 versus the GameCube, so why should it help the PS3 versus the Wii?

Some people seriously don't understand that the only reason the Wii is winning is because of price.



QFT



The Wii was > DS in January in the U.S.



QFT again. And let me just add ...

$200 GameCube outselling a $300 PS2/Xbox? Whodathunk.

This man speaks the truth.



Before it can outsell the 360 by 100K a month in Japan, it first has to sell 100K a month in Japan. Just FYI.



April 2006.



Hubris. It was a nice video, but nowhere near worth the cost.

:lol :lol :lol

You know we love you right donny?

Uh, let's celebrate? Basically, Wii has to outsell the PS2 lifetime or you'll see an even smaller market. To allow our lifestyle to continue, everyone has to support the Wii.

Kind of a scary prospect really.

I don't think the Wii will sell like that. At the top end (unless something drastically changes) I see the Wii hitting in the high 80 million region. A substantial increase for Nintendo in console marketshare, but lower compared to the last market leader. If such happens, and the high end guys don't stick to a ten year plan, then yes we'll see a substantial drop in total marketshare from last gen.

And most of that falls squarely on Sony's shoulders. Either go for the ten years Sony, or go for substantial losses. The market shrinking is good for no one.

 

[F#A#Oo]

Uh, let's celebrate? Basically, Wii has to outsell the PS2 lifetime or you'll see an even smaller market. To allow our lifestyle to continue, everyone has to support the Wii.

I think the PS2 numbers would be pretty misleading as most people I know have bought 2 or more PS2's...disk errors etc.

 

[civilstrife]

Between MS and Nintendo's xmas lineup, there is no mercy.

This is exactly how I feel. :lol

wii60 is proving to be a fantastic formula.
But why oh why is the industry so focused on the fall lineup. It's the one time of year when I want to be playing as few games as possible.

Bioshock
Metroid
Halo 3
Galaxy
Mass Effect
SmashBros

When does the awesome end?

Spoiler

It doesn't.

 

[thestopsign]

Yep. That's why the GameCube launched @ $100 less than the PS2 and Xbox and totally destroyed those two to take over the worldwide lead in less than a year. The PlayStation brand didn't help Sony with the PS2 versus the GameCube, so why should it help the PS3 versus the Wii?

Some people seriously don't understand that the only reason the Wii is winning is because of price.



QFT



The Wii was > DS in January in the U.S.



QFT again. And let me just add ...

$200 GameCube outselling a $300 PS2/Xbox? Whodathunk.

This man speaks the truth.



Before it can outsell the 360 by 100K a month in Japan, it first has to sell 100K a month in Japan. Just FYI.



April 2006.



Hubris. It was a nice video, but nowhere near worth the cost.

You just put about 4 different people in their places.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

You just put about 4 different people in their places.

And that's what I call the donny magic.

He can own your ass, and still be your friend all the same.

*swoons*

 

[TheKingsCrown]

The Wii is not winning only because of FUCKING PRICE. Get it out of your heads. The Wii has a ridiculous amount of things that are going for it that are selling the damn thing:

Price ----> $250.
History ---> Virtual Console.
Cutting Edge Technology --->Motion based games that work WELL.
Leveraged Cutting Edge Tech ---> WiiSports, other games.
Brand---->Completely reinvented, family oriented, no kiddy mantra.



The reason Wii is winning and will continue to fucking win, is that Microsoft and Sony cannot replicate all of these things at once, at least not until a few years down the road.

And Iwata was brilliant in that he found a group of things to create such a catastrophe. End of discussion.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

I think the PS2 numbers would be pretty misleading as most people I know have bought 2 or more PS2's...disk errors etc.

Not just that, but I know a lot of people who'd buy multiple PS2's (or other systems) throughout it's course and trade it in just to buy it again a year later...you get multiple sales off the same people. Same could be said about NDS too. There's tons of ways to bloat sales...what really matters is how many of those people who buy these systems actually PLAY them and buy games for them...going just by consoles sales it diludes the customer base.

Graphs, numbers & demographics are fansy-smansy ways to state the obvious...Nintendo is kicking Sony's ass this time and that's all we need to know/accept. Wii has a hook & draw and Sony has a high-priced flaw.

 

[thestopsign]

Can someone post the Top 10 for each console again. I don't want to wade through the thread.

Edit: Well I'm oblivious. First post hoy!

 

[schuelma]

Can someone post the Top 10 for each console again. I don't want to wade through the thread.

Check the first post

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Can someone post the Top 10 for each console again. I don't want to wade through the thread.

You only have to wade to the OP, which has been scrupulously maintained.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Not just that, but I know a lot of people who'd buy multiple PS2's (or other systems) throughout it's course and trade it in just to buy it again a year later...you get multiple sales off the same people. Same could be said about NDS too. There's tons of ways to bloat sales...what really matters is how many of those people who buy these systems actually PLAY them and buy games for them...going just by consoles sales it diludes the customer base.

Graphs, numbers & demographics are fansy-smansy ways to state the obvious...Nintendo is kicking Sony's ass this time and that's all we need to know/accept. Wii has a hook & draw and Sony has a high-priced flaw.

Damn... they were right.

To try and be the #1 Nfan around here, when you can fill that void quite nicely is just suicide. I... secede my Nfan badge of honor sir... I'm not worthy.

And I agree with you pretty soundly. I don't know if the Wii will hit PS2 levels of domination, but it's off to a great start no doubt.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

In terms of PS3 sales how does this compared to past console's...
Say the GCN, Dreamcast, SNES?

Relative to them is the PS3 tracking better then them in the same time period?

No, no, and I don't know. Sony having shitty November+December supply didn't allow them to take full advantage of launch frenzy, so even with decent monthly sales since then (relative to GCN and Dreamcast), it's having a time catching up. DC slowed down pretty quickly, though, so PS3 will certainly be catching up to that one in the not-too-distant future.

 

[Stormcaller]

The Wii is not winning only because of FUCKING PRICE. Get it out of your heads. The Wii has a ridiculous amount of things that are going for it that are selling the damn thing:

Price ----> $250.
History ---> Virtual Console.
Cutting Edge Technology --->Motion based games that work WELL.
Leveraged Cutting Edge Tech ---> WiiSports, other games.
Brand---->Completely reinvented, family oriented, no kiddy mantra.



The reason Wii is winning and will continue to fucking win, is that Microsoft and Sony cannot replicate all of these things at once, at least not until a few years down the road.

And Iwata was brilliant in that he found a group of things to create such a catastrophe. End of discussion.

It also has the "it" factor. Right now, among youth Wii generates a lot of buzz. Having a Wii with 4 controllers and multiplayer games will increase your social status and create more friends.

 

[Kosma]

It also has the "it" factor. Right now, among youth Wii generates a lot of buzz. Having a Wii with 4 controllers and multiplayer games will increase your social status and create more friends.

Only on GAF.

 

[Version 3.0]

Only on GAF.

I haven't made any GAF friends because of the Wii, but I have had people over to try it (female people, even). I've even been encouraged to bring it to work for a Pizza / Wii party lunch.

 

[donny2112]

I've finally gone through the whole thread.

If JoshJSlone is watching, maybe he can do one of those keen "How long would it take X to catch up to Y at current rates" thing for WW PS3 vs 360.

Note: This is using my estimated worldwide numbers.

If the rate the PS3 outsold the 360 worldwide in July continued, the PS3 would surpass the 360 worldwide in January of 2015.

Just how long has the 360 been at 10M now? I remember WW sales of the 360 being at 10M back in Dec of 06. 0_o

Shipments versus sales.

You know, someone should dredge up those NPDs from a year ago where all the Sony guys were bashing 360 for selling "only" 180-220k per month.

They were comparing it to the PS2, which was a bad comparison to begin with. As I said back then, you couldn't know how the 360 was really doing in those months until you saw how the PS3 and Wii did. I think we all know how that's turned out.

Are software development houses really waiting for the Wii to "peter out" as the NYTimes says?

EA clearly isn't, they formed a whole Wii division essentially.

Shoving Wii development to EA Casual (same division as mobile games and POGO) isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.

What do you guys think that triggered the 7% increase and the end of the decline on 360 US sales?

I think Microsoft's annoucement of the 3-year warranty gave more people the confidence to buy a 360. Instead of being a negative by admitting they had a problem, it became a positive due to their massive commitment to support systems for at least three years from purchase.

I think I saw some interest in market growth so I'll post this.
Video game market growth since 1985 & adjustments for inflation:

Nice graph!

:lol :lol :lol

You know we love you right donny?

Sometimes I wonder, but it's nice to "hear" it said. Thanks.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

Note: This is using my estimated worldwide numbers.

If the rate the PS3 outsold the 360 worldwide in July continued, the PS3 would surpass the 360 worldwide in January of 2015.

10 year project confirmed.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I've finally gone through the whole thread.



Note: This is using my estimated worldwide numbers.

If the rate the PS3 outsold the 360 worldwide in July continued, the PS3 would surpass the 360 worldwide in January of 2015.

Jesus. If that doesn't put it into perspective, nothing will.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Are we getting August numbers next week?