Support NeoGAF

[markatisu]

Probably take the rest of the year to prove that one way or another.

Thats what I meant, till now people countered that Sony's YOY decline was in part due to too high a price.

Well now that its $299 there "should" be some improvement if price was the only or a primary factor in its slow sales.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Conduit > MadWorld > HotD:O

TC and HotD are separated by less than 15k.

Punch-Out should break 400k next month.

So The Conduit is selling at a steady pace after all.

 

[shykyoichi]

Anything is possible, what it will do is finally put to rest whether the only thing holding back the PS3 is its price.

Even the magical pink unicorn creating the universe is possible...

 

[RyuKanSan]

meh well Ninty better do something to maintain their lead. I think ps3 sales'll pick up.

 

[user_nat]

With the Wii sales being so low this past month (low compared to its usual high), could a $299 PS3 outsell the Wii for a month or two?

 

[AniHawk]

With the Wii sales being so low this past month (low compared to its usual high), could a $299 PS3 outsell the Wii for a month or two?

Definitely. Probably not in August, since sales are so low that they'd need to more than double right away to match Wii sales for the month, but it's possible for September and maybe October.

 

[timetokill]

With the Wii sales being so low this past month (low compared to its usual high), could a $299 PS3 outsell the Wii for a month or two?

I'd say it's not only possible, it's probable.

I highly doubt anything will beat the Wii/DS in the holiday months (Nov/Dec) but I could see PS3 coming out ahead in September and maybe October. Not sure if it will have enough impact in August, we'll see.

 

[Psychotext]

On a random note... I recall when I suggested these sales for August and was ridiculed:

If I was to guess right now? Assuming no price drops and a four week month I'd go for something like:

Wii - 395k
360 - 230k
PS3 - 180k

Ignoring the PS3 aspect... it looks like I may have been being a little too generous on the Wii.

 

[Narcosis]

With the Wii sales being so low this past month (low compared to its usual high), could a $299 PS3 outsell the Wii for a month or two?

I wouldn't bet money on it.

 

[AdventureRacing]

September should be an interesting month. I'd say the excitement will be short lived but at least it will liven up these threads (for better or for worse).

I expect September to be the longest NPD thread in a long time.

 

[Bishman]

With Sony announcing price drop, will we see Nintendo and Microsoft react?

 

[Cipherr]

Everyones giving him shit, but he could be right. Wii sales have stabalized just about 100k or less over the other two. Sept should hold big bumps for 360 and Wii due to either key game releases or new skus and price drops. So....what so ridiculous about that, really...

I think it most certainly could happen. Hope it does, these threads have been garbage since the PS3 has a short glory run over the 360 last year.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Everyones giving him shit, but he could be right. Wii sales have stabalized just about 100k or less over the other two. Sept should hold big bumps for 360 and Wii due to either key game releases or new skus and price drops. So....what so ridiculous about that, really...

I think it most certainly could happen. Hope it does, these threads have been garbage since the PS3 has a short glory run over the 360 last year.

Wii sales haven't stabilized.

I think the PS3 beating the Wii for a month or two is something that could definitely happen. It's a strong price cut and Nintendo's complacency has left the Wii in a shaky position.

Of course, at this point, beating the Wii in a particular month means about as much as the Gamecube beating the PS2 for one month in 2004.

 

[Danthrax]

With Sony announcing price drop, will we see Nintendo and Microsoft react?

Microsoft is already reacting by dropping the Pro and reducing the Elite's price to the old Pro's price.

Will Nintendo react? I'd say it's a coinflip. Possibly dependent on how much further sales fall in the next couple months.

 

[markatisu]

Microsoft is already reacting by dropping the Pro and reducing the Elite's price to the old Pro's price.

Will Nintendo react? I'd say it's a coinflip. Possibly dependent on how much further sales fall in the next couple months.

I think it depends if they feel they are hurting, they were getting their ass handed to them in Japan earlier this year with people loving the fact the PS3 was selling and look what has happened. Could be a similar situation

Of course, at this point, beating the Wii in a particular month means about as much as the Gamecube beating the PS2 for one month in 2004.

Or the 360 edging out the Wii during the launch of Halo 3

 

[AniHawk]

Wii sales haven't stabilized.

I think the PS3 beating the Wii for a month or two is something that could definitely happen. It's a strong price cut and Nintendo's complacency has left the Wii in a shaky position.

Of course, at this point, beating the Wii in a particular month means about as much as the Gamecube beating the PS2 for one month in 2004.

That... didn't happen, did it? I know the Xbox beat the PS2 (and actually, on several occasions), but the Gamecube?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

That... didn't happen, did it? I know the Xbox beat the PS2 (and actually, on several occasions), but the Gamecube?

It was a hypothetical. Not sure if it ever did or not (I suspect the only month it had a chance was when it dropped to $99), but it doesn't matter enough for me to look up.

 

[donny2112]

On a random note... I recall when I suggested these sales for August and was ridiculed:

And rightly so. You were predicting ~50% drop on the Wii, IIRC. When that was pointed out to you (by me), even you were surprised and less sure of that prediction.

Edit:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=15495347&postcount=220

That... didn't happen, did it?

No.

 

[Psychotext]

And rightly so. You were predicting ~50% drop on the Wii, IIRC. When that was pointed out to you (by me), even you were surprised and less sure of that prediction.

I wasn't sure about the prediction (especially given the reaction), but I was very sure that the Wii was going to see pretty significant sales drops in the US once demand had been met by supply.

So neerrrr.

:lol

 

[clashfan]

Definitely. Probably not in August, since sales are so low that they'd need to more than double right away to match Wii sales for the month, but it's possible for September and maybe October.

I'd say it's not only possible, it's probable.

I highly doubt anything will beat the Wii/DS in the holiday months (Nov/Dec) but I could see PS3 coming out ahead in September and maybe October. Not sure if it will have enough impact in August, we'll see.

:lol

It's like listening to Cubs fans...

 

[gerg]

Of course they don't have to do anything, but what are they waiting for? It's a normal and natural tactic considering that after a few dozen million sales there are fewer people left willing to purchase something at its original price, and production costs are lower as well. It's not exactly like they'd be rushing into some irreversible money pit. They've gone far longer than any previous system has gone without a price cut, and even gone longer than GCN took to get its final price cut. They could even cut the price and still be at a higher price than any previous Nintendo console if they really feel being $200 is some new measure of defeat.

As others have said, if Nintendo can increase demand through software releases alone, then a price cut may simply be a superfluous procedure that would lower revenue.

Getting some people impressed with all-new types of software is well and good, but it's not like doing that and a price cut would somehow work against each other, and after going 3 years avoiding paying the initial $250 some people will just really not want to pay that much.

I never said that a price cut would ever be a bad move, but rather one less beneficial from a revenue-biased perspective if sales can be increased via other methods.

I can't speak for anyone else, but when I've said "taking a strategy off the table" it's only in reference to Nintendo's outwards claim that they will not drop the price, and to people arguing from that basis. I don't actually think it's necessarily true that they "need" a price drop right now, but I basically don't believe that they aren't continuing to keep the option open; I think it would be a mistake (either from an external viewpoint or an internal decision-making stance) to consider a price drop to represent a "failure" of Nintendo's strategy, rather than simply one strategic element.

Fair enough. As you know, I've agreed in the past that Nintendo will have to cut the price of the Wii eventually.

I guess my main frustration with this discussion is that people (and I may be a guilty party here, too) are referring to the situation as though it has been and gone, when in reality there are still six months of the fiscal year left, and a lot may yet change. I know that if Iwata turns up to the next investor meeting in March having sold only 25 million consoles in the fiscal year, he probably won't be the one with egg on his face.

In other news, French keyboards suck ass.

 

[farnham]

MW1 outsold Galaxy. Zelda ST will probably chart for a couple months. M&S should crack the top 10.

EDIT: Mybad, ST, not PH.

Galaxy 2 is comming out next year

MW2 will be up against SMBWii

and 2D marios sales are usually a lot stronger then 3D marios

NSMB sold over 20 million units

 

[lowrider007]

Microsoft is already reacting by dropping the Pro and reducing the Elite's price to the old Pro's price.

I keep hearing people saying this but what proof is there to support ?, like I said in another thread if MS are raising the price of the Arcade SKU in the UK to £159 do you think they are really going to have the Elite priced at only £20 more @ £179 ?

 

[Kilrogg]

In other news, French keyboards suck ass.

Hey now, don't go there, buddy.

 

[dark10x]

I still can't believe how well New Super Mario Bros has done. I mean, it's a solid game, but it's not even remotely close to being as good as the best in that series. Nintendo is making a great move by creating a Wii version of the game.

I suppose the sales aren't particularly unexpected for this season. I think July is the first month this year that I did not buy any newly released games.

 

[gerg]

Hey now, don't go there, buddy.

Why the fuck do I have to press shift to input numbers?! :/

 

[Kilrogg]

Why the fuck do I have to press shift to input numbers?! :/

That's AZERTY for you. Use the numpad?

Spoiler

Why are you using a French keyboard anyway?

 

[gerg]

That's AZERTY for you. Use the numpad?

Spoiler

Why are you using a French keyboard anyway?

On holiday in france. I was at an internet cafe and now on my motherk's blackberry. Can't talk too much lol

 

[Sipowicz]

i'm skeptical of the ps3 outselling the wii without a big killer app piece of software this year

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

It was a hypothetical. Not sure if it ever did or not (I suspect the only month it had a chance was when it dropped to $99), but it doesn't matter enough for me to look up.

Nope. The price cut was too late in September to do much for that month, but October and November were about as close as it ever got.

As others have said, if Nintendo can increase demand through software releases alone, then a price cut may simply be a superfluous procedure that would lower revenue.

That's a daaaaamned tall order, though. Planning on doing the unprecedented leaves a lot of room for failure. DS in Japan in late 2005 is the only time I can think of a console seeing such a boost without a price cut or remodel helping to push it. And in that case there was a new model helping within a few months anyway.

For a company making billions a year, I think trying to squeeze the last few million in hardware revenue rather than trying to keep the fires of userbase growth stoked while they can could be counterproductive in the long-term.

 

[charlequin]

For a company making billions a year, I think trying to squeeze the last few million in hardware revenue rather than trying to keep the fires of userbase growth stoked while they can could be counterproductive in the long-term.

This is a better and more even-handed way of putting my position than whatever damn fool incendiary way I would tend to put it. :lol

 

[zero_suit]

For a company making billions a year, I think trying to squeeze the last few million in hardware revenue rather than trying to keep the fires of userbase growth stoked while they can could be counterproductive in the long-term.

I concur. Yes, Nintendo might not generate as much profit initially with a price cut, but it will be more beneficial in the long term. A higher userbase leads to increased software sales, which generate more profit than hardware.

 

[zero_suit]

meh well Ninty better do something to maintain their lead. I think ps3 sales'll pick up.

The hardware race was over a long time ago.

 

[phisheep]

For a company making billions a year, I think trying to squeeze the last few million in hardware revenue rather than trying to keep the fires of userbase growth stoked while they can could be counterproductive in the long-term.

There are different ways of looking at this from Nintendo's point of view - and all they have to do is wait and see.

If the Microsoft and Sony price cuts have only a temporary impact there could be another price tussle, leaving Wii at the top of the heap in both userbase and price. That would not necessarily be a bad place to be for them because the Wii would be perceived as a premium product and the other two as the consoles for people who can't afford a Wii. Such a market position could be disastrous for the HD twins.

Similarly, if Microsoft and Sony have to increase the bundled price to incorporate motion technology the Wii could be well-placed at its current price.

So, I wouldn't expect any quick response from Nintendo - maybe not at all until after price and date announcements for Natal and the wand thing. And then only if they look to be moving into the expanded market.

I don't think it is about squeezing out the last few million at all - much more strategic than that.

 

[shykyoichi]

There are different ways of looking at this from Nintendo's point of view - and all they have to do is wait and see.

If the Microsoft and Sony price cuts have only a temporary impact there could be another price tussle, leaving Wii at the top of the heap in both userbase and price. That would not necessarily be a bad place to be for them because the Wii would be perceived as a premium product and the other two as the consoles for people who can't afford a Wii. Such a market position could be disastrous for the HD twins.

Similarly, if Microsoft and Sony have to increase the bundled price to incorporate motion technology the Wii could be well-placed at its current price.

So, I wouldn't expect any quick response from Nintendo - maybe not at all until after price and date announcements for Natal and the wand thing. And then only if they look to be moving into the expanded market.

I don't think it is about squeezing out the last few million at all - much more strategic than that.

Like what many have mentioned, the hardware race is already finished.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

I'll buy it because it's a Zelda game and I'm contractually obligated to buy it, but I'm not gonna be happy about it.

That describes me in a nut shell. I d/l a GBC emulator just to play Link's Awakening.

I still haven't finished Phantom Hourglass and didn't like it but knows it's better than 80% of games released. Nintendo takes a bullet to the brain, undergoes rehab for 12 months and still makes a game better than most games release. It's just that I'm used to generation-defining games with Zelda. OoT and Majora's Mask combo has forced me to buy every Zelda game made for the next 15 years. You just can't fully appreciate how good those games were.

 

[poppabk]

For a company making billions a year, I think trying to squeeze the last few million in hardware revenue rather than trying to keep the fires of userbase growth stoked while they can could be counterproductive in the long-term.

I think it would be foolish for Nintendo to sacrifice momentum for short term profit margins, but I can understand why they might make that decision. Other than their IP's - which only go so far - momentum is the one thing they have on their side. They are technologically inferior, the copy cat motion controls are going to, at the very least, muddy the waters, and they lack the support of 3rd parties and the "core" gamer population. They lose momentum and drop behind the 360 and/or the PS3 and a price cut may not bring it back, the Wii will be yesterdays console.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

OoT and Majora's Mask combo has forced me to buy every Zelda game made for the next 15 years.

Ahaha, I know how that can be. I'm starting to resent Secret of Mana for all the lesser Mana games it's forced me to buy over the years.

 

[gerg]

That's a daaaaamned tall order, though. Planning on doing the unprecedented leaves a lot of room for failure. DS in Japan in late 2005 is the only time I can think of a console seeing such a boost without a price cut or remodel helping to push it. And in that case there was a new model helping within a few months anyway.

Fair enough. If (that aspect of) the strategy fails, a price cut will be necessary.

For a company making billions a year, I think trying to squeeze the last few million in hardware revenue rather than trying to keep the fires of userbase growth stoked while they can could be counterproductive in the long-term.

I'm not sure I understand this concern. Surely userbase growth is only a real concern when there is the possibility that the "is considering buying console X" crowd might become smaller? If so, is hthis happening to the Wii? Are large swaths of potential buyers migrating to other consoles? I wouldn't think so - it seems people either buy a Wii or nothing at all, so why does it tter if they buy one now or in a few months?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Surely userbase growth is only a real concern when there is the possibility that the "is considering buying console X" crowd might become smaller? If so, is hthis happening to the Wii? Are large swaths of potential buyers migrating to other consoles?

With sales flat or down for other consoles so far it's hard to say this is a problem yet. But year to date Wii is down about 800K in the US--certainly it would be better to have that extra 800K earlier than to have to fight harder for them later against competition who aren't standing still.

I wouldn't think so - it seems people either buy a Wii or nothing at all, so why does it tter if they buy one now or in a few months?

As I mentioned above, Wii is down about 800K in the US year to date. If the amount it's been down in the last three months holds for the next three months, through October it will be down 1.7 million. Last year they already set the record for what a home console could sell across November+December in the US, passing 4 million for the first time. If sales have been down for most of the year, why would we think they'll match that, let alone make up the difference? PS2 only had a November+December of greater than 3 million one time--and Wii's May-July numbers are well below what PS2 was doing in May-July of that year.

Considering they already bumped up their production capacity so high, it would be a waste to... well, put it to waste. Even in a world where everyone who doesn't buy one now is going to buy one later, it's still better to reach milestone X at date Y, rather than date Y + a year. It's always going to be better to have a higher userbase to sell more software and accessories, encourage more support from third parties, give people less reason to want to buy the competitions' machines, and in the long-term have a larger group of people (and publishers) automatically interested in the successor.

 

[Cosmozone]

I don't see a Wii price cut anytime soon. It still sells too well to pass on the profits. Nintendo won't (and shouldn't in my opinion) care if PS3 outsells it or not. I really hope for Sony that it can for a longer time than just one or two months.

 

[Zen]

Thats what I meant, till now people countered that Sony's YOY decline was in part due to too high a price.

Well now that its $299 there "should" be some improvement if price was the only or a primary factor in its slow sales.

The high price + being more adversily effected by the recession than the competitors in the timeframe due to the high price. With the overall depressed state of the market the PS3 might not see as considerable a sales increase as it otherwise would, though its sales should easily be 360 levels.

I mean how can you honestly postualate 'maybe the PS3 just isn't that appealing' when we have sales data showing it matching and outselling the 360 at higher price points. Seems like a fairly closed case.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

This will be the first Holiday where the Wii won't be supply constrained. NSMBros. Wii could potentially be HUGE not only in sustaining the current audience but also bringing in new audiences again. The damage to Sony (in mainly image/mindshare) is already done, and while a great pricedrop and Slim version can only be a good thing it's sorta too late to turn things around...especially without a major system selling exclussive coming. Nintendo should just ride this out and see the best their competitor's can do (with pricedrops) before they "react" too much too soon. I actually don't see a pricedrop coming for Wii until next year and (at the most) Nintendo would rather bundle in WSR/WM+ in every Wii sold at the current price making it the new standerd package this Holiday instead. That way they boost sales of the Wii by giving it more value, grow the WM+ userbase and gain more sales for WSR all without having to do a pricedrop.

To me, the perfect time for an effective Wii pricedrop is when the competition plans to bundle their motion interfaces (which Wii already has) in with their systems. This works in Nintendo's benifit value perception wise since Nintendo would be lowering it's prices while the competition is their raising prices to add what Nintendo already has. Until this pricedrop comes Nintendo still has pack-in's, bundling & colors they can do.

 

[liuelson]

...it's still better to reach milestone X at date Y, rather than date Y + a year. It's always going to be better to have a higher userbase to sell more software and accessories, encourage more support from third parties, give people less reason to want to buy the competitions' machines, and in the long-term have a larger group of people (and publishers) automatically interested in the successor.

Taking this rationale to its logical conclusion, isn't this the basic justification for selling console hardware at a loss? I don't see how this line of reasoning would be compelling to Nintendo, especially a market-leading Nintendo.

 

[John Harker]

Hey, I just got Little King's Story and it's surprinsingly awesome.

Why didn't it sell at all? Didnt they set their estimates at like 120k for NA?
it got like 11k

 

[Haunted]

Hey, I just got Little King's Story and it's surprinsingly awesome.

Why didn't it sell at all? Didnt they set their estimates at like 120k for NA?
it got like 11k

It is a goddamn travesty. Such a great game. Still Wii GOTY for me.

 

[Chumly]

Hey, I just got Little King's Story and it's surprinsingly awesome.

Why didn't it sell at all? Didnt they set their estimates at like 120k for NA?
it got like 11k

Stores that dont carry Little King's Story (In-store):

Walmart
Best Buy
Target
Toysrus


Having the majority of video game retailers not carry your game is a pretty good way of not getting sales.

 

[Version 3.0]

I'm not sure I understand this concern. Surely userbase growth is only a real concern when there is the possibility that the "is considering buying console X" crowd might become smaller? If so, is hthis happening to the Wii? Are large swaths of potential buyers migrating to other consoles? I wouldn't think so - it seems people either buy a Wii or nothing at all, so why does it tter if they buy one now or in a few months?

It's always difficult to speculate "what if", but certainly there are consumers who are choosing an Xbox 360 over the Wii for the sake of price or value. It's most definitely not a "Wii or nothing" crowd out there anymore. Of course, it never was, but the balance is quite visibly changing.

 

[Version 3.0]

Taking this rationale to its logical conclusion, isn't this the basic justification for selling console hardware at a loss? I don't see how this line of reasoning would be compelling to Nintendo, especially a market-leading Nintendo.

Take that rationale and add the condition that you don't sell at a loss, or even below a reasonable margin, and it still applies nicely. Nintendo is being stubborn on this point for naive reasons.

 

[Karma]

I have a feeling that the Wii can be in last place in september.

It could be but the price drop bumps will not last long.