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[Oblivion]

btw. what losses are you talking about?

It sold a good 10 million units less than the N64, and several more million units less game sales. And that's WITH a console that had more games than N64.

 

[quetz67]

I dunno what you mean about "disaster"... in terms of prestiege, Resident Evil was bigger coup than any exclusive Microsoft secured for Xbox 1. Obviously it fell through later on, but given GameCube's perfromance that was almost a given.... Xbox would've lost it too.

Nintendo made huge strides with 3rd parties last gen, again I don't think you really have a firm grasp over what you're talking about.

Thats your opinion, I dont see anything remarkable in 3rd party support on GC. Losing RE4 exclusive, yes, probably a given, having it announced for PS2 before GC release - something going terribly wrong.

And have a look at FF:CC. Nintendo finally gets a FF game and even funds it and the result is not even close to what FF fans expect, neither in production value nor in gameplay.

What other (exclusive) third party support is there to talk about (not cheap ports that would be profitable on every platform)

 

[quetz67]

It sold a good 10 million units less than the N64, and several more million units less game sales. And that's WITH a console that had more games than N64.

OK, thats probably because there was one more contender

and thinking of that as 'losses' is strange

 

[jarrod]

Thats your opinion, I dont see anything remarkable in 3rd party support on GC. Losing RE4 exclusive, yes, probably a given, having it announced for PS2 before GC release - something going terribly wrong.

It was the shareholders stepping in and forcing upper management to make the call, thanks to market conditions, despite the dev team's wishes. Sort of like what happening with PlayStation 3 now.

And have a look at FF:CC. Nintendo finally gets a FF game and even funds it and the result is not even close to what FF fans expect, neither in production value nor in gameplay.

As oppossed to Xbox... which got nothing?

What other (exclusive) third party support is there to talk about (not cheap ports that would be profitable on every platform)

GameCube had quite a few big announcements in 2001/2002 (VFRPG, Capcom 5, RE exclusivity, Sonic, PSO, Namco RPGs, Konami Disney Sports deal, etc, etc) plus they managed to get near full multiplatform in the west from the big publishers (EA, Activision, THQ, Ubisoft, etc). That in itself might not be so impressive, but when you look at where they were coming from off N64, that was a monumental improvement. Hell, it got a Square game... that alone was unthinkable just a year earlier.

Nintendo more than went out of their way to get 3rd party support, as that was N64's chief pitfall. Again, "arrogance" doesn't really apply here.

 

[HylianScribe]

That's the first thing I noticed along with Super Paper Mario. Do we know how is the LTD of Twilight Princess ?

It hasn't quite surpassed 5 million yet, and please remember this is factoring in the GCN sales, which account for over 1 million units.

 

[Epiphyte]

And have a look at FF:CC. Nintendo finally gets a FF game and even funds it and the result is not even close to what FF fans expect, neither in production value nor in gameplay.

I have to stop you here. Whatever the flaws in connectivity and gameplay (and there were a ton) CC was a gorgeous game, up there with RE4 and RS. The chibi design may have been offputting, but from a production values standpoint, that game was loaded.

 

[Ikael]

I also used to think that VR is what future gaming should be about. But with time, I learned that augmented reality is way cooler and more practical than this, and that the wii is a step towards that direction, hence why that is kind of the first console that I support "ideologically", even if it doesn't have a game selection good enough for me to buy it (yet). And LOL @ all the people that drank copiously the "HD era" kool aid. What a short sighted vision of gaming.

 

[schuelma]

Top 10 Wii games


http://wii.ign.com/articles/797/797422p1.html


Of note- Tiger Woods at #6. Probably has passed or equaled Tiger Woods on 360 (passed PS3 last month).

 

[Joe Molotov]

IGN's Top 20 is different from ours

IGN
1. Mario Party 8 (WII) Nintendo
2. Spider-Man 3 (PS2) Activision
3. Wii Play (WII) Nintendo
4. Forza Motorsport 2 (X360) Microsoft
5. Guitar Hero 2 (X360) Red Octane/Activision
6. Spider-Man 3 (X360) Activision
7. Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars (X360) Electronic Arts
8. Guitar Hero 2 (PS2) Red Octane/Activision
9. Super Paper Mario (WII) Nintendo
10. Legend Of Zelda: Twilight Princess (WII) Nintendo
11. Crackdown (X360) Microsoft
12. Spider-Man 3 (WII) Activision
13. MLB '07: The Show (PS3) Sony
14. MLB '07: The Show (PS2) Sony
15. Everyone Game Bundle (PS2) Multiple Manufacturers
16. Shadowrun (X360) Microsoft
17. Shrek The Third (PS2) Activision
18. Spider-Man 3 (PS3) Activision
19. God Of War II (PS2) Sony
20. .hack GU Vol. 2 Reminisce (PS2) Namco Bandai

GAF
331k NDS POKEMON DIAMOND VERSION
314k WII MARIO PARTY 8
249k PS2 SPIDER-MAN 3
238k NDS POKEMON PEARL VERSION
227k WII PLAY W/ REMOTE
217k 360 FORZA MOTORSPORT 2
184k 360 GUITAR HERO 2 W/ GUITAR
140k 360 SPIDER-MAN 3
138k 360 COMMAND & CONQUER 3: TIBERIUM WARS
131k PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR
11 WII SUPER PAPER MARIO Nintendo
12 360 CRACKDOWN Microsoft
13 PS3 MLB '07: THE SHOW Sony
14 WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS Nintendo
15 WII SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
16 360 SHADOWRUN Microsoft
17 PS3 SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
18 PS2 MLB '07: THE SHOW Sony
19 360 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K7 Take 2 Interactive
20 360 GEARS OF WAR Microsoft
21 NDS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS Nintendo
22 NDS SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
23 360 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END Disney
24 PS2 GOD OF W AR II Sony
25 360 TOM CLANCY'S RAINBOW SIX: VEGAS Ubi Soft

I thought maybe we were going by units sold and they were going by dollars, but they've got .hack GU 2 at #20 and it's only $40, but it's not on our list at all. Also, they've got this Everyone Game Bundle on the list that even they don't seem to know what it is. What's up with that? Do they get their numbers from a different source than us? I thought we got ours straight from the NPD.

 

[Cruceh]

It seems IGN's list does not count portables

 

[Grecco]

5 of the top 10 Wii titles are from Third Parties and yet people still ove the Nintendo FUD

 

[Brakara]

5 days. Could have been because of first week, I guess. Might drop down to around 100K next month.

Then again, if Spider-Man 3 can sell more in its second month then why can't Forza 2 do that as well?

 

[Parl]

It seems IGN's list does not count portables

No, it just doesn't count budget games, and DS games are in that category. All the PSP games are still included.

 

[Atreides]

No, it just doesn't count budget games, and DS games are in that category. All the PSP games are still included.

What is needed for a game to be considered budget? Because Wii Play is usually considered budget. Just price?

 

[Branduil]

Reading old prediction threads is fun.

 

[Parl]

What is needed for a game to be considered budget? Because Wii Play is usually considered budget. Just price?

With this, yeah, it seems. We don't know if it include handhelds or doesn't, because PSP games won't chart anyway because PSP sells mainly as a non-gaming console, just like PS3 when you look at software sales in some countries.

 

[JDSN]

By reading some of quetz67's last posts, I think I made the right decision when I bailed out from this thread a couple of pages ago.

 

[C4Lukins]

5 of the top 10 Wii titles are from Third Parties and yet people still ove the Nintendo FUD

How many first party games do they have? I think Excite Truck is the only one of any signifigance that did not make it.

 

[mentalfloss]

and far fewer mainstream hit games. Which isn't a problem for the Wii, where EVERY game seems to be built for mainstream appeal.

EVERY game?

 

[Meier]

Shit, had I known I'd miss the NPD I wouldnt have gone on the cruise... nooooo! :lol

 

[donny2112]

Where did incredibly well thought out ideas like Nintendogs and Brain Training come from?

The GameCube and a book.

 

[ComputerNerd]

How much has Zelda sold LTD?

 

[jman2050]

Reading old prediction threads is fun.

PS3 will be first by 2008 in USA. You can quote me on that.

hmmm....

 

[Mudhoney]

5 of the top 10 Wii titles are from Third Parties and yet people still ove the Nintendo FUD

That's because Nintendo took the top 4 spots and people seem to think third party success is only proven if those third-party titles are #1.

 

[jarrod]

That's because Nintendo took the top 4 spots and people seem to think third party success is only proven if those third-party titles are #1.

True... if it were all new/next gen platforms counted, Nintendo would still dominate the top 5 too. :lol

 

[Xisiqomelir]

How many first party games do they have? I think Excite Truck is the only one of any signifigance that did not make it.

So, now we're measuring 3rd party success by 1st party failure? That seems sensible.

 

[Fafalada]

So, to me the trends are there to suggest a connection.

Well the drop also coincided with the massive surge of NDS popularity, UMD dropping off charts, the "new" sheen wearing off from the device etc.
I certainly see piracy as contributing factor, but it definately wasn't the only one, and likely not the main reason either.
You can see cases where piracy is the dominating factor in Asia - where consoles are lucky if they have attach rate higher then 1:1.

Is a relatively low attach rate for DS perhaps more due the fact that a lot more casuals are picking that up who are happier to play the same game (or a couple of games) over and over again?

Looking at historical trends it's just reaffirming the fact that handhelds sell less software per unit then consoles. I'm pretty sure it will easily pass GBA tie-ratios regardless.

...everything seems within the same ballpark, though DS and PSP should probably be able to swell past 5 (DS probably reaching into console territory of 6+).

Yea, that's about what I expect too.
Actually it's interesting that the trend seems to be that each generation attach rate grows(NDS will likely kick that curve upward more) - I wonder if this is the case with consoles too? I know it happened with PS1->PS2 gen, but what about prior to that? Although granted, at the rate PS2 is going, it may end up ~14:1 or higher, which will be a tall order to beat.

 

[gamergirly]

Pretty good month overall

 

[Deku]

Seems like Super Paper Mario and Twilight Princess sold very well again, nice. A shame that Spiderman 3 for Wii sold that much considering it apparantly was pretty crappy. Also, good DS numbers and extremely good Xbox360 numbers.

If you look at the TV adverts, it advertised it only for the PS3 version and the platform. I think what's surprising is how poorly the PS3 version did relative to the non advertised counterparts and it didn't seem to help the hardware any.

The spidey font PS3 logo totally backfired given the negativity swirling around both the movie and platform. Maybe they'll go back to the old font when they release a revision of the PS3 as a kind of 'return of roots' campaign that ought to get the PS gen feeling a bit nostalgic for 1999.

 

[SuperBanjo]

Reading old prediction threads is fun.

Okay, I just can't get over how many screwed predictions there are in this thread. :lol

I cannot wait to save these reports and then see if anyone can interview these guys when they're proven wrong. The Wiii won't sell nearly half as many units as the Gamecube.

I don't see the Wii (I still hate that name!) selling 12 million by the end of 2008 in NA alone, and no chance of doing it by the end of 2007 as you said might happen. I do agree that Sony has looked uncharacteristically bad with the PS3 PR so far. I think it's entirely possible that they will sink to second or possibly third this gen, but personally I don't feel they'll fall further than second. Of course, they still have to something about the price, and if Blu-Ray catches on, who knows. I just feel that a lot of people are overestimating the appeal of the Wii to the general public.

You got to give Sony a little credit... even at $600 they're bound to sell out until March... and at that price they'll have quite a big price to chip away from. Picture this; they sell all 6million units at $600, pricedrop in march to $550 to sell to those still on the fence, pricedrop next fall to $500 to reap the holiday reward, then price drop in spring 2k8 to $450, etc. etc.

They could essentially prolong sell-through by dropping the price $50 every 6months for almost the entire console life-cycle. It's a clever plan, and there are enough sony fanboys at each pricepoint that they could sellout continuously... A lot of people in GAF and the gaming community seem to write off this possibility.

PS3 will lead in 2008 or 2009. It has been written.

PS3 will be first by 2008 in USA. You can quote me on that.

Can't really blame them though - this was August 2006, when we all thought "Brand Loyalty FTW"

 

[C4Lukins]

So, now we're measuring 3rd party success by 1st party failure? That seems sensible.

I am not sure what you are getting at. The person I responded to said that 5 out of the top 10 Wii games were 3rd party and implied that it was stupid for people to deny third party success on the console. Now if there is only 6 first party games out, then of course there is going to be several third party games in the top 10. There may be more first party titles on Wii that I am just not remembering, but those 6 are the "big ones," currently.

I am not disputing the success of third party games on the Wii, just pointing out a glaring error in logic.

 

[RPS37]

I'm happy to see that I wasn't totally wrong about Crackdown getting a slight boost from the Beta.

 

[Branduil]

You got to give Sony a little credit... even at $600 they're bound to sell out until March... and at that price they'll have quite a big price to chip away from. Picture this; they sell all 6million units at $600, pricedrop in march to $550 to sell to those still on the fence, pricedrop next fall to $500 to reap the holiday reward, then price drop in spring 2k8 to $450, etc. etc.

They could essentially prolong sell-through by dropping the price $50 every 6months for almost the entire console life-cycle. It's a clever plan, and there are enough sony fanboys at each pricepoint that they could sellout continuously... A lot of people in GAF and the gaming community seem to write off this possibility.

This is my favorite one.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'm happy to see that I wasn't totally wrong about Crackdown getting a slight boost from the Beta.

Yeah, that's a nice little pop.

 

[quetz67]

Can't really blame them though - this was August 2006, when we all thought "Brand Loyalty FTW"

Thats what I think will still make a difference long term, but short term I rather believed in the movie buffs (cheapest BD player) and the millions of early adopters not caring too much about money.

What went wrong wasnt price (at least not for the early adopter phase) but lack of worthwile BD movies and games to show what your $599 machine can do (blaming Gears of War for that to a good degree).

And that is what Sony has to get right this year. Price drop is a given for me, but I think content is much more important. Show us something we can only get on PS3 and more people will be willing to pay the price for it.

 

[C4Lukins]

This is my favorite one.

I thought they would be able to sell their first ten million units at that price without much problem. I just figured with 100 million plus PS2 owners out there, 10% of them would go out and buy the thing regardless. Of course I also thought they would have a much more competitive lineup of games much earlier in the life cycle then they have managed.

 

[quetz67]

This is my favorite one.

yeah, it is easy to look back and make fun of people making valid predictions back then. It is not like being a fanboy of a console that now did better than expected makes you a better analyst.

And it is not like the people buying a Wii at $249 correspond to the majority of those not buying the PS3 at $599

 

[Grampa Simpson]

yeah, it is easy to look back and make fun of people making valid predictions back then. It is not like being a fanboy of a console that now did better than expected makes you a better analyst.

And it is not like the people buying a Wii at $249 correspond to the majority of those not buying the PS3 at $599

How do you figure? I think that there is probably a very close correlation.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

It hasn't quite surpassed 5 million yet, and please remember this is factoring in the GCN sales, which account for over 1 million units.

I have the impression you're not at all satisfied with TP's WW sales, right ?

 

[RiskyChris]

I have the impression you're not at all satisfied with TP's WW sales, right ?

Nobody should be disappointed in the sales of TP. It didn't have the luxury of launching to a huge userbase like WW or OOT.

 

[quetz67]

How do you figure? I think that there is probably a very close correlation.

I think Wiis are mostly sold to children and their parents, Nintendo fans and those new markets all are talking about. Those who are generally willing to pay high prices for HD movies and games might buy a Wii too, but I dont think it will stay their only console. In the case of people seeing PS3 only as a cheap BD player, there obviously isnt any direct correlation to their game console purchase.

 

[Starchasing]

I think Wiis are mostly sold to children and their parents, Nintendo fans and those new markets all are talking about.

Yeah, i agree with you, Wii is selling to everyone but graphics whores and other consoles fanboys.

 

[quetz67]

Yeah, i agree with you, Wii is selling to everyone but graphics whores and other consoles fanboys.

probably...but nobody can say how many that are.

Watching the latest Lair trailer they should have rushed that out to vow people like they did with Rogue Squadron on GC. That would have gotten Sony some more of the graphics whores early, the gameplay of that game will be mediocre at best anyway.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Yeah, i agree with you, Wii is selling to everyone but graphics whores and other consoles fanboys.

And there is the possibility that people will start buy it with Mario Galaxy and Smash... Nintendo's strategy is definitely smarter then I thought.

 

[imastalker co.]

I think Wiis are mostly sold to children and their parents, Nintendo fans and those new markets all are talking about.

this must explain why it's selling faster than any other system ever.

 

[ZombieSupaStar]

Yeah, i agree with you, Wii is selling to everyone but graphics whores and other consoles fanboys.

eh if the wii is > than ps2 in graphics there still is room for graphic whores imo (ff12, GoW, Silent Hills), I personally like games to RUN well then LOOK nice, instead of the opposite mainly being the case on my 360 so far.


With manhunt 2 looking grim for Wii, im down to only 1 game I want on the system (Mysims).

Im a fickle gamer now, not really hardcore or casual I think but I havent gotten a Wii yet because it doesnt have enough games I want for me to jump in. When it does I will, even though I dislike motion controls and prefer traditional style, If the game is fun Ill deal with it.

 

[quetz67]

eh if the wii is > than ps2 in graphics there still is room for graphic whores imo (ff12, GoW, Silent Hills), I personally like games to RUN well then LOOK nice, instead of the opposite mainly being the case on my 360 so far.


With manhunt 2 looking grim for Wii, im down to only 1 game I want on the system (Mysims).

Im a fickle gamer now, not really hardcore or casual I think but I havent gotten a Wii yet because it doesnt have enough games I want for me to jump in. When it does I will, even though I dislike motion controls and prefer traditional style, If the game is fun Ill deal with it.

Same for me, will get a Wii later for the games that matter.

But it will never satisfy my graphics whores need and when I am talking graphics I am rather meaning power incl. stuff like physics, AI, huge believable worlds or just some believable indoor environments like in Bioshock

 

[quetz67]

this must explain why it's selling faster than any other system ever.

obviously!...what is your point?

 

[ZombieSupaStar]

Same for me, will get a Wii later for the games that matter.

But it will never satisfy my graphics whores need and when I am talking graphics I am rather meaning power incl. stuff like physics, AI, huge believable worlds or just some believable indoor environments like in Bioshock

well honestly I dont think the 512 megs of ram in the next gen systems were quite enough to push what they want at the res they want in my opinion but thats a whole other can of worms I dont wanna open right now.

but yeah I see your point, to me just give me a game that can run on the hardware you are working on, with great performance, even if it means looking worse.

 

[quetz67]

well honestly I dont think the 512 megs of ram in the next gen systems were quite enough to push what they want at the res they want in my opinion but thats a whole other can of worms I dont wanna open right now.

You did, no way of closing it again

I think 512MB are enough for a long time. In my strong belief good graphics are not made of just huge textures, but a good mixture of polygon detail, textures (that do fit in 512MB) and shaders and of course realistic lighting.

We will see lots of PC games that excel PS3/360 games in texture size and I know some believe thats the holy grail of graphics, but who needs textures that still look perfect in screenshots of 3000 pixel width? (see Crysis)

Yes I am a graphics whore but if a game is lame enough to let you care about that amount of detail, something is probably wrong.