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[methane47]

Hey I have a question

What is the YTD for LAIR?
Anyone know?

 

[bishopcruz]

Still surprised that there isn't more discussion on UT3 only selling 27k. That is ridiculously low. Anyone have any ideas as to why this one seems to have bombed? I mean UT 2004 did at least 500k IIRC, so what has changed that the sequel fell flat on its face? There has to be a reason for it.

Or is PC gaming outside of MMOs really dead?

 

[lexi]

Still surprised that there isn't more discussion on UT3 only selling 27k. That is ridiculously low. Anyone have any ideas as to why this one seems to have bombed? I mean UT 2004 did at least 500k IIRC, so what has changed that the sequel fell flat on its face? There has to be a reason for it.

Or is PC gaming outside of MMOs really dead?

The kind of people who buy UT don't appreciate being fucked over via a shitty demo and the apparent fact development of the game seemed focused for the PS3.

 

[dammitmattt]

Definitely, which is why I siad, "this is probably no consolation to Naughty Dog." I'm just pointing out that everyone deriding the PS3 fanbase for not buying games- it's simply not the case, they're buying their games in about the same amount as 360 owners, it's just that there's less of them/

That's not true. The 360 tie ratio was always higher. PS3 owners are buying games, just not as many of the recent good exclusive titles. Uncharted and Ratchet deserve much, much better!!!

 

[bishopcruz]

The kind of people who buy UT don't appreciate being fucked over via a shitty demo and the apparent fact development of the game seemed focused for the PS3.

Explain? I hadn't heard much buzz on the demo being crap, and had always gotten the impression that UT3 was a PC game first and foremost. What there really a lot of backlash in the UT community? Just seems kinda weird that the game would bomb that badly. I mean 27k on PC isn't as bad as 27k on console, but for a UT game it is awful.

 

[Zerachiel]

Still surprised that there isn't more discussion on UT3 only selling 27k. That is ridiculously low. Anyone have any ideas as to why this one seems to have bombed? I mean UT 2004 did at least 500k IIRC, so what has changed that the sequel fell flat on its face? There has to be a reason for it.

Or is PC gaming outside of MMOs really dead?

competition.

Everyone's too busy playing TF2 to care about another shooter.

 

[Father_Brain]

Wow, Drawn to Life sold unexpectedly well. Jackson must be happy.

While not a spectacular number, that's in line with a lot of the licensed shovelware THQ puts out. Just goes to show that original IPs can sell decently if there's a decent marketing budget put behind them; De Blob could sell a few hundred K if THQ handles it similarly.

 

[Stumpokapow]

While not a spectacular number, that's in line with a lot of the licensed shovelware THQ puts out. Just goes to show that original IPs can sell decently if there's a decent marketing budget put behind them; De Blob could sell a few hundred K if THQ handles it similarly.

Yeah, it is. 200k is very spectacular for a) the first non-mobile game of a b) very small company on a c) system where it's virtually impossible to get your budget high enough that 200k is not profitable.

Advertising wise, you're looking at a game that as far as I can tell had two main outlets of advertising; a contest sponsored by IGN, and a few one-pagers in Nintendo Power. I've also seen a few standees at EB, but it's not exactly clear to me how much those cost or if they're part of broader retail-publisher relationships.

The best part is that since it's not a licenced game, the game will likely continue to sell well in catalogue sales as long as the publisher keeps it well-stocked.

 

[donny2112]

I have no 2007 sales data for it, but it's likely that it's somewhat behind TP Wii in 2007. We know it's above ~1.1 million.

How, exactly, do "we" know this?

 

[Draft]

The kind of people who buy UT don't appreciate being fucked over via a shitty demo and the apparent fact development of the game seemed focused for the PS3.

Nailed it.

 

[thestopsign]

Yeah, it is. 200k is very spectacular for a) the first non-mobile game of a b) very small company on a c) system where it's virtually impossible to get your budget high enough that 200k is not profitable.

Advertising wise, you're looking at a game that as far as I can tell had two main outlets of advertising; a contest sponsored by IGN, and a few one-pagers in Nintendo Power. I've also seen a few standees at EB, but it's not exactly clear to me how much those cost or if they're part of broader retail-publisher relationships.

The best part is that since it's not a licenced game, the game will likely continue to sell well in catalogue sales as long as the publisher keeps it well-stocked.

There were a surprising amount of TV commercials in October for the game, can't remember what channels, but I saw 3 or 4 of them, and I don't watch much TV.

 

[Kittonwy]

The kind of people who buy UT don't appreciate being fucked over via a shitty demo and the apparent fact development of the game seemed focused for the PS3.

They were just too wishy-washy about their commitment to whichever platform they were launching the game on. If it's a big PC title, market it as such, if it's a PS3 time-exclusive, market it as such, if it's a multi-platform title, market it as such, they tried to play their little game and got burned because of it.

 

[Stumpokapow]

How, exactly, do "we" know this?

Well, like I said in another thread, I lost my hard drive in November so I lost all my old data and can't check to see if that particular number is from public data or leaked data or my gasoline-addled brain, but if I remember correctly the GCN version made the end of year top data that we were given and was above 1m there. I'm also fairly certain that the few times Beyond3d has posted by-console top-10 lists where they give the numbers for #1 and #10, deduction has been enough to pile up the numbers since then.

If not, then I'll go with we know it because enough leaked data is still scattered across the web for people to know it and there's absolutely nothing or should be absolutely nothing ban-able about giving ballpark 500k figures from memory

 

[donny2112]

if I remember correctly the GCN version made the end of year top data that we were given and was above 1m there. I'm also fairly certain that the few times Beyond3d has posted by-console top-10 lists where they give the numbers for #1 and #10, deduction has been enough to pile up the numbers since then.

If not, then I'll go with we know it because enough leaked data is still scattered across the web for people to know it and there's absolutely nothing or should be absolutely nothing ban-able about giving ballpark 500k figures from memory

NPD had lots of problems getting the correct Zelda totals out last December. Read about it at Kotaku here and here. The short answer is that GCN Zelda: TP sold 532.9K in December 2006, not 1 million.

I don't think that the GCN Zelda is over 1 million in the U.S. alone, at this point.

Edit:
Here's the GAF thread for December 2006, too.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Woah. I have no idea what I was getting on with. Possibly shipment numbers?

Yep, shipment numbers. As I look at this document, I realize that this is what I was thinking of when I gave that number.

1.25 million in non-Japanese sales. Apparently it was released in the EU, but I'm not sure if that was online only or retail. Either way, I can pretty logically believe given the EXTREME unpopularity of the GameCube in Europe that less than 250,000 of those were shipped to Europe.

Either way, thanks for the correction. Hopefully over the holidays I'll get the chance to pour over the web and get some of my lost data back. It's harder now than it used to be given that a lot of the leaks have simply been deleted and there are no sites actually compiling the data like the Shrine used to.

 

[Roat]

Still surprised that there isn't more discussion on UT3 only selling 27k. That is ridiculously low. Anyone have any ideas as to why this one seems to have bombed? I mean UT 2004 did at least 500k IIRC, so what has changed that the sequel fell flat on its face? There has to be a reason for it.

Or is PC gaming outside of MMOs really dead?

The US market for PC games is poor outside a few select titles, but elsewhere they still sell well.

On UT3 specifically, that demo slaughtered it for me. I probably would have bought it blind otherwise. It was like elements of UT'99 ported to UE3 with an horrific interface and non-working map browser. I never went back to it.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Woah. I have no idea what I was getting on with. Possibly shipment numbers?

Yep, shipment numbers. As I look at this document, I realize that this is what I was thinking of when I gave that number.

1.25 million in non-Japanese sales. Apparently it was released in the EU, but I'm not sure if that was online only or retail. Either way, I can pretty logically believe given the EXTREME unpopularity of the GameCube in Europe that less than 250,000 of those were shipped to Europe.

Either way, thanks for the correction. Hopefully over the holidays I'll get the chance to pour over the web and get some of my lost data back. It's harder now than it used to be given that a lot of the leaks have simply been deleted and there are no sites actually compiling the data like the Shrine used to.

It was a retail release here. At least I have seen copies at retailers (Germany). I don't think it sold well though and I don't think it has been restocked ever since the first shipment, but that's just guesswork on my part.

 

[TheRipDizz]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8374&Itemid=2
Next-Gen's interesting take on the NPD showing in Nov.

This little tid bit here I agree with and have seen coming from a mile away.

"The big question: Will Nintendo be able to supply another million or more systems to the market in time for Christmas? The situation is truly uncertain, and history offers almost no guidance. Purely speculating, we'll call it for 1.1 million, and probably lower."

That Nintendo has blown up so much has gone a little to Wii supporters heads. Somehow alot of them think there are millions of Wiis sitting in a wherehouse somewhere waiting to be released in December. Why?

 

[mysticstylez]

Ya think Epic would have gotten the hint after the huge Gears of War sales. If you want a shooter to sell well, put it on the 360 when it launches.

 

[ziran]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8374&Itemid=2
Next-Gen's interesting take on the NPD showing in Nov.

This little tid bit here I agree with and have seen coming from a mile away.

"The big question: Will Nintendo be able to supply another million or more systems to the market in time for Christmas? The situation is truly uncertain, and history offers almost no guidance. Purely speculating, we'll call it for 1.1 million, and probably lower."

That Nintendo has blown up so much has gone a little to Wii supporters heads. Somehow alot of them think there are millions of Wiis sitting in a wherehouse somewhere waiting to be released in December. Why?

Yeah, going by what Reggie said, which held up for November, ~1.2 million Wii's should be available for Dec, double last year. More is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Next year is when we could see truly spectacular sales for the system, especially Nov and Dec. The thing many here don't realise (or refuse to accept) is Wii is going to become even more popular next year and Nintendo will most probably have increased production significantly.

 

[RBH]

Hey I have a question

What is the YTD for LAIR?
Anyone know?

Based on what we've seen from the NPD and Media Create numbers (along with Lair's lack of significance in the EU charts), it's probably between 150k-200k.

 

[mysticstylez]

Yeah, going by what Reggie said, which held up for November, ~1.2 million Wii's should be available for Dec, double last year. More is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Next year is when we could see truly spectacular sales for the system, especially Nov and Dec. The thing many here don't realise (or refuse to accept) is Wii is going to become even more popular next year and Nintendo will most probably have increased production significantly.

Talking about the wii's popularity, is boring anymore. We all know people want it more than anything, and that every month it will sell shitloads. I'd like to see the 360 or PS3 win for a few months just cause it would be interesting.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8374&Itemid=2
Next-Gen's interesting take on the NPD showing in Nov.

This little tid bit here I agree with and have seen coming from a mile away.

"The big question: Will Nintendo be able to supply another million or more systems to the market in time for Christmas? The situation is truly uncertain, and history offers almost no guidance. Purely speculating, we'll call it for 1.1 million, and probably lower."

That Nintendo has blown up so much has gone a little to Wii supporters heads. Somehow alot of them think there are millions of Wiis sitting in a wherehouse somewhere waiting to be released in December. Why?

Good article, pretty much agree with everything they say. Interesting that Resistance is at <500k LTD in the US I have heard 2m quoted for WW sales of resistance which seems unrealistic based on the NPDs.

Yeah, going by what Reggie said, which held up for November, ~1.2 million Wii's should be available for Dec, double last year. More is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Next year is when we could see truly spectacular sales for the system, especially Nov and Dec. The thing many here don't realise (or refuse to accept) is Wii is going to become even more popular next year and Nintendo will most probably have increased production significantly.

I think the Wii will be more popular next year, its having a snowballing effect and its reaching people who would never have considered a video game machine before. Wii Fit is going to be unbelievable imo.

Talking about the wii's popularity, is boring anymore. We all know people want it more than anything, and that every month it will sell shitloads. I'd like to see the 360 or PS3 win for a few months just cause it would be interesting.

I understand what you mean, we are not comparing apples to apples when you compare the Wii to the 360/PS3. Comparing them makes it look as though people have weighing up the systems on offer and plumping for the Wii when in fact they are not making that decision at all. Even if the 360 aracde was $199 it would have neglibile effect on Wii sales imo (although 360 sales would increase obviously). We dont really know what is going to happen to the Wii and the type of games it will have. I mean as long as the 360 sells at current levels its always going to have a steady supply of games that I want to play but can I say the same thing about my new Wii?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

This little tid bit here I agree with and have seen coming from a mile away.

"The big question: Will Nintendo be able to supply another million or more systems to the market in time for Christmas? The situation is truly uncertain, and history offers almost no guidance. Purely speculating, we'll call it for 1.1 million, and probably lower."

That Nintendo has blown up so much has gone a little to Wii supporters heads. Somehow alot of them think there are millions of Wiis sitting in a wherehouse somewhere waiting to be released in December. Why?

Obviously they were stockpiling, or they wouldn't have been able to go from 100K/week to 125K/week to 250K/week so suddenly. Given that they're stockpiling, what's the purpose? To make November and December increases more like regular November and December increases. And if that is the goal, why would they split shipments so December is barely an increase over November, which would be highly irregular? In fact, 1.1 million or lower would actually be a decrease of the weekly rate from November.

Let's even say they wanted December sales to be basically flat from November. In November they claimed 350K the week of Thanksgiving, which would mean the other three weeks were 210K apiece. They also said they expected to hit a new single-week record in December. Let's say their high week of December merely matches that 350K and the other four weeks match the rest-of-November average of 210K. Even that sums up to 1.19 million.

 

[First Children]

To those in the US, did Wii shipments increase the last 2 weeks there, like in the UK?


Also, is it possible that Wii sales surpassed 1.8 millions in November worldwide? from what we know:

US --> 981k
Canada --> 82k
Japan --> 200k ?

What about UK, Europe or Australia?

 

[[Nintex]]

To those in the US, did Wii shipments increase the last 2 weeks there, like in the UK?


Also, is it possible that Wii sales surpassed 1.8 millions in November worldwide? from what we know:

US --> 981k
Canada --> 82k
Japan --> 200k ?

What about UK, Europe or Australia?

Europe was 200k at launch I think they could've pushed 250k/300k but that isn't 1.8 million either. I expect them to ship 1.5/1.7 million in NA this december, the question is if they've been lying all the time since even if we add Europe in the best scenario they never shipped 1.8 million in any month.

 

[Philthy]

Ya think Epic would have gotten the hint after the huge Gears of War sales. If you want a shooter to sell well, put it on the 360 when it launches.

These were all probably well into production before the industry ended up the way it has. Epic is probably just happy that they got enough bank to keep them going from Gears alone. Other companies will not be as lucky.

 

[DayShallCome]

There's a nice reference article up over at niceskybox.com that brings together a lot of the data we got over the weekend with some analysis.

Dammit, now I'm excited for December already.

 

[mambadragon]

Explain? I hadn't heard much buzz on the demo being crap, and had always gotten the impression that UT3 was a PC game first and foremost. What there really a lot of backlash in the UT community? Just seems kinda weird that the game would bomb that badly. I mean 27k on PC isn't as bad as 27k on console, but for a UT game it is awful.

I think there's two reasons the game's not doing well on PC:

1. the simplest reason, class-based and more strategic shooters have taken over the UT/Quake deathmatch gameplay.

2. UT2k4 is well known to have a high learning curve, and people are assuming (and I haven't played it but I bet it's true) this is the same for UT3. The same thing happened with CS:S - when it came out there weren't any more people playing CS, just the community that slowly moved (and is still moving) over. You can probably see a dip in the amount of people playing UT2k4 that isn't that much less than those playing UT3. For me personally, they're well made games but it's impossible for me to have fun unless I go out of my way and organize a game with other newer players (and my friends are pure console gamers). Side note: I think the most amazing thing about TF2 is how it doesn't seem to be going this route at all, and people are still able to pick it up today and have fun and get kills.

 

[Jokeropia]

Europe was 200k at launch I think they could've pushed 250k/300k but that isn't 1.8 million either.

Wii sales were almost definitely higher than 250k/300k in Europe for the whole of November.

 

[lochnesssnowman]

Wii sales were almost definitely higher than 250k/300k in Europe for the whole of November.

Yeah, I think he's perhaps confusing the UK figures with the whole of Europe. For launch month, Dec last year, UK hit 200k and Europe as a whole hit 700k. http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4536&Itemid=2