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NPD September predictions thread

A

Arsenal

Member
PS2 310k
NDS 365K
360 296K (Just enough to make Odysseus eat his hat)
GBA 170K
PSP 180K
GCN 25K
XBX 8K


I also think people will be very suprised by the Saint's Row numbers and overall of course the 360 should have very solid software sales (8 or so games over 100k).
 
D

djtiesto

is beloved, despite what anyone might say
I'm never in these prediction threads, but I might as well give it a try:

PS2 260k
DS 200k
360 240k
GBA 160k
PSP 180k
GC 40k
Xbox 25k
 
A

Amused_To_Death

Member
The gaming industry has strung a few solid months of sales together, with double-digit year-over-year percentage increases in revenue for June, July, and August. Although the industry-tracking NPD Group's numbers for September aren't expected to be revealed until late next week, one analyst is already saying it's going to be another big month.

Pacific Crest Securities' Evan Wilson released an industry overview this week that pegs the US gaming software sales for September at $412 million, a 19 percent increase from the same month last year.

"The growth is attributed to resurgent spending on PS2, significant growth in the Nintendo DS, the addition of Xbox 360 sales and very easy comparisons," Wilson said in his overview.

Last year's September sales were dominated by EA Sports titles, with Madden NFL 06 retaining the top spot from its August release, with NBA Live 06, Tiger Woods PGA Tour 06, NASCAR 06, and Activision's X-Men Legends II being the biggest sellers. This year's EA Sports offerings will likely face competition on the September charts from LucasArts' Lego Star Wars II and THQ's Saints Row, which Wilson believes sold more than 350,000 copies during the month.

Wilson also revised his expectations for the industry's total software take for the year. Previously, he had expected a modest growth of 3.7 percent over 2005. Now, he's a little more bullish, predicting console, handheld, and PC game sales to jump 9.6 percent, to $7.69 billion. "The launch of the Nintendo Wii and the Sony PlayStation 3 and very easy year-over-year comparisons for the balance of 2006 should drive the growth, in our view," Wilson said.

As for how much the new systems will contribute to the software sales total, Wilson expects the Wii to move more software, but not by a tremendous amount. For the year, he estimates PS3 software sales will clock in around $184 million, with the Wii tally amounting to $221 million. By comparison, the Xbox 360, which Microsoft launched last November, racked up a 2005 software sales total of $141 million. Wilson expects the console's US game sales to clock in at $1.32 billion this year.
Click to expand...


http://www.gamespot.com/news/6159411.html
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
For the year, he estimates PS3 software sales will clock in around $184 million, with the Wii tally amounting to $221 million. By comparison, the Xbox 360, which Microsoft launched last November, racked up a 2005 software sales total of $141 million.
Click to expand...
Sounds like they're really counting on PS3 2006 allocations ramping up fast, which I don't think is a given.

And wow at Saint's Row.
 
D

Deku

Banned
A Link to the Past said:
I think people are downplaying how well the black DS Lite, pink DS Lite, Pokémon and Mario vs. DK 2 will boost the DS Lite's sales.
Click to expand...
Didn't those come out very late in the month or in early october?
 
D

dyls

Member
As for how much the new systems will contribute to the software sales total, Wilson expects the Wii to move more software, but not by a tremendous amount. For the year, he estimates PS3 software sales will clock in around $184 million, with the Wii tally amounting to $221 million. By comparison, the Xbox 360, which Microsoft launched last November, racked up a 2005 software sales total of $141 million. Wilson expects the console's US game sales to clock in at $1.32 billion this year.
Click to expand...

Considering that Wii titles will be selling for ~17% less than PS3 and 360 titles, and that he's still predicting Wii software to generate ~17% and ~37% more revenue, respectively, I'd say he does expect a tremendous amount out of Wii software.
 
D

dyls

Member
Deku said:
Didn't those come out very late in the month or in early october?
Click to expand...

On the 12th actually. There should be more than two weeks worth of sales, which is why I predicted 360K DS sold in September (160 white, 200 black/pink)
 
A

A Link to the Past

Banned
Deku said:
Didn't those come out very late in the month or in early october?
Click to expand...

DS Lites came out on the 12th, Pokémon on the 19th and Mario vs. DK 2 on the 25th (so it had some effect). The DS Lites and Pokémon alone are what ensure that it won't be below 300k, and Hell, we've got Star Fox Command, which just missed the August NPD and has been selling respectively.
 
S

sonycowboy

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Sounds like they're really counting on PS3 2006 allocations ramping up fast, which I don't think is a given.

And wow at Saint's Row.
Click to expand...


1) They've only put it at an extra 30% SW sales for the 360, which only had 600k units for the year. Assuming a similar tie ratio, that would put HW sales required for the PS3 at 785k. If the tie ratio, was somewhat worse, you're looking at 850k or so HW required to get that extra 30% SW sales.

2) I do expect SR to do quite well as well.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
You'll be back for Halo 3. You know you will. :p
Click to expand...

Well, it was an impossible deal anyway. I'd have to buy a 360 to sell one. AND THAT AIN'T HAPPENING UNTIL THE DERN THING IS MORE STABLE.

And $300.

And I have an HDTV.

OK, I could possibly go for $350.

But that would require Halo 3 and/or Mass Effect to be available.
 
C

CabbageRed

Member
One million units of fun for everyone! ^_^ Its a message of love and hope for all!

... I'll take whatever sonycowboy said, remove 75k from 360 and spread it accross Sony systems.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
sonycowboy said:
1) They've only put it at an extra 30% SW sales for the 360, which only had 600k units for the year. Assuming a similar tie ratio, that would put HW sales required for the PS3 at 785k. If the tie ratio, was somewhat worse, you're looking at 850k or so HW required to get that extra 30% SW sales.
Click to expand...

For all that Wii software- that's expecting well over a million right? Zelda will have half of that, easily.
 
J

jett

D-Member
Okami - 1 million units.

It's what it should sell anyway, game is so friggin' good...doubt TP will be as good.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
sonycowboy said:
1) They've only put it at an extra 30% SW sales for the 360, which only had 600k units for the year. Assuming a similar tie ratio, that would put HW sales required for the PS3 at 785k. If the tie ratio, was somewhat worse, you're looking at 850k or so HW required to get that extra 30% SW sales.
Click to expand...
Had I taken a few minutes to do the math, I would have realized you're right. Plus, the game prices are going to be $90, so that adds up fast. (j/k)
 
D

donny2112

Member
Complete/Total

May entries: 12/15
June entries: 23/26
July entries: 38/38
Aug. entries: 51/55
Sept. entries: 35/42 (so far)

Can the mods discuss whether the winner of these prediction contests can get a special member tag and let us know the decision? Thanks! :)
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
jett said:
Okami - 1 million units.

It's what it should sell anyway, game is so friggin' good...doubt TP will be as good.
Click to expand...

Yeah, TP will be far better. :p



Those Wii software sales would amount to 4.4 million, roughly. Hopefully Zelda will get over 2 million at LEAST.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
jett said:
Okami - 1 million units.

It's what it should sell anyway, game is so friggin' good...doubt TP will be as good.
Click to expand...

Okami will probably win GotY.

TP is ready to push OoT aside for the Best Game of All-Time spot, so it can let Okami win a measly GotY award.
 
D

donny2112

Member
argon said:
I think you guys are really underestimating PS2 sales.
Click to expand...

You have predicted it the highest along with Scotch at 330K, but 30 people have it at 250K or above. ;)

Oblivion said:
Those Wii software sales would amount to 4.4 million, roughly. Hopefully Zelda will get over 2 million at LEAST.
Click to expand...

Maybe combined with the GameCube sales, TP will be over 2 million this year. :p
 
T

thestopsign

Member
Hardware
----------------------------------------------------------
DS - 330,000
Xbox 360 - 250,000
PS2 - 270,000
PSP - 190,000
GBA - 175,000
GCN - 40,000
Xbox - 10,000

Software
----------------------------------------------------------
1.) Madden 2007 PS2
2.) Saint's Row X360
3.) Madden 2007 X360
4.) Pokemon Mysterious Dungeon DS
5.) Dead Rising X360

Mario Basketball 3 on 3 - 75,000
Megaman ZX - 30,000
Loco Roco - 50,000
Ultimate Ghouls and Ghosts - 10,000
Star Fox Command - 80,000
Okami - 70,000 (Hopefully it will be like Shadow of the Collosus though.)
 
J

JMPovoa

Member
Judging by your predictions it seems like September is just another regular month. When does it really start to pick up? October or November?
 
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