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NPD September predictions thread

G

GhaleonEB

Member
JMPovoa said:
Judging by your predictions it seems like September is just another regular month. When does it really start to pick up? October or November?
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October should be pretty normal, judging from years past. November is going to be insane, ditto for December. Lots a huge titles and two system launches = mass carnage. Cats and dogs playing together, the works.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
JMPovoa said:
Judging by your predictions it seems like September is just another regular month. When does it really start to pick up? October or November?
Click to expand...

November is normally a really big month along with December, but you can start seeing the effect on sales in October also.
 
A

argon

Member
Speevy said:
I think pretty much everyone has it as the leading console. How so?
Click to expand...

Hrmm well I could be completely wrong on this, but PS2 sales seem to have been improving since the price drop and show no signs of slowing down, so I've factored in a small increase in weekly sales over last month.

I have July at 241k and August at 262k, which showed an impressive 8.7% increase. So August comes out to around 65k/week. Now let's say there's another 2% increase this month, that comes out to 66k/week or ~330k for a 5-week NPD period.

My numbers/guesses are probably inaccurate but we'll see what happens =)
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Stopsign said:
November is normally a really big month along with December, but you can start seeing the effect on sales in October also.
Click to expand...
his question got me curious, so I did a little number crunching. I checked to see what percentage of console sales come in November-December (I don't track hand helds).

From 2002 - 2005, the PS2 had 42%, the XBox 43% and the GCN 58% (inflated by the 2004 holiday price cut - that year Nov-Dec = 78% of all GCN sales).

On average for those years, the three systems sold 46% of their units in November and December alone.

Just a bit of speculation - if the 360 does 250k in October, and has the same % sold over the holidays as the first XBox did in it's second year, it will do 2,361,174 in Nov + Dec, for 5,023,775 in the US at the end of the year.
 
S

Striek

Member
So going by those PCS estimates, hes either predicting the PS3 will sell ~70% the amount of the Wii, or the Wii will have a (relatively) poor tie-ratio.

argon said:
I think you guys are really underestimating PS2 sales.
Click to expand...
Last year...

August - 253k
September - 268k

This year...

August - 262k
September - ? 330k ?

I don't see it happening.
 
S

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
My Prediction:

DS - 367k
PS2 - 286k
X360 - 262k
PSP - 190k
GBA - 184k
GC - 53k
XBX - 10k
 
S

Striek

Member
Dalauz said:
why alot of you guys is going for 45k+ NGC this month(npd month i mean), im missing a release?
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Eh, 45k would still be by far its lowest 5-week month ever.

Btw; Square2005 were your predictions really worth bolding? They're uninteresting in the utmost.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Darmstadtium said:
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that every system will be higher than that.
Click to expand...

Probably not Xbox.

Darmstadtium said:
This is a 5 week month isn't it?
Click to expand...

Yes.

Dalauz said:
why alot of you guys is going for 45k+ NGC this month(npd month i mean), im missing a release?
Click to expand...

GCN has been over 10K/week the last three months. With September being a 5-week month, 45K might be undershooting it. ;)
 
J

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
Last Month:
NDS - 278k
PS2 - 262k
360 - 204k
GBA - 156k
PSP - 146k
GCN - 41k
XBX - 9k


Last Year:
PS2 - 268k
GBA - 185k
NDS - 168k
PSP - 146k
XBX - 124k
GCN - 108k




My Predictions:
NDS - 375k
PS2 - 300k
360 - 250k
GBA - 170k
PSP - 160k
GCN - 45k
XBX - 10k
 
S

Square2005

Banned
Just made this: Sales over the past year:
hwuspyrfo5.png

It's colorful!
Couldn't fit teh 360 using an online graph-maker...

Shriek, those are my first U.S. HW predictions - that's why they're boldened.
 
H

heidern

Junior Member
GhaleonEB said:
Just a bit of speculation - if the 360 does 250k in October, and has the same % sold over the holidays as the first XBox did in it's second year, it will do 2,361,174 in Nov + Dec, for 5,023,775 in the US at the end of the year.
Click to expand...

Of course the sales were bolstered earlier this year due to pent up demand from last years launch shortages. The first xbox also was helped by the price cut in May and the bundling during the holidays. On the other hand it could benefit from the ps3 shortages and if Gears of War hits it big, bigger than the first Splinter Cell the that could help counter that.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
heidern said:
Of course the sales were bolstered earlier this year due to pent up demand from last years launch shortages. The first xbox also was helped by the price cut in May and the bundling during the holidays. On the other hand it could benefit from the ps3 shortages and if Gears of War hits it big, bigger than the first Splinter Cell the that could help counter that.
Click to expand...
The thing is, the 360 really didn't see much of a spike when supply got better; it got up to 295k in April, but that's right after both GRAW and Oblivion shipped as well. Not nearly enough to throw off the yearly total much at all.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Just a bit of speculation - if the 360 does 250k in October, and has the same % sold over the holidays as the first XBox did in it's second year, it will do 2,361,174 in Nov + Dec, for 5,023,775 in the US at the end of the year.
Click to expand...


:(
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Odysseus said:
I swear. This will be the one Christmas Microsoft defies all odds and actually has their stuff together.
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no, that would mean they would have a bundle in the US like they do in every other major market for the holidays (japan, canada, europe)
 
A

AniHawk

Member
GhaleonEB said:
no, that would mean they would have a bundle in the US like they do in every other major market for the holidays (japan, canada, europe)
Click to expand...

Microsoft doesn't need a bundle when they have Gears of War. Besides, it's the next best thing for people looking for a PS3 at launch (poor unfortunate souls).
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
no, that would mean they would have a bundle in the US like they do in every other major market for the holidays (japan, canada, europe)
Click to expand...


Yeah, actually I'm not too high on their chances to break any records this year. I haven't caught up on the 1up Yours thread, but I agree with Shane and Luke that 360's line up really isn't so hot. Despite being out for a year, it's still pretty much "slim pickins," particularly with only Gears of War being a big gun for the holiday. The only thing it really has going for it is that PS3 will be scarce. Just one or two of those games that slipped into 2007 would have been provided a nice boost.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Odysseus said:
Yeah, actually I'm not too high on their chances to break any records this year. I haven't caught up on the 1up Yours thread, but I agree with Shane and Luke that 360's line up really isn't so hot. Despite being out for a year, it's still pretty much "slim pickins," particularly with only Gears of War being a big gun for the holiday. The only thing it really has going for it is that PS3 will be scarce. Just one or two of those games that slipped into 2007 would have been provided a nice boost.
Click to expand...

They probably were best suited for 2007 anyway. Not only do you get better games, but when the PS3 is finally available in stock, the 360 will be getting a bunch of new great games every quarter.

It'll be a glorious time. And Halo 3 hype will be in full effect. I can already hear the buzzing. The buzzing of bees.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
AniHawk said:
They probably were best suited for 2007 anyway. Not only do you get better games, but when the PS3 is finally available in stock, the 360 will be getting a bunch of new great games every quarter.

It'll be a glorious time. And Halo 3 hype will be in full effect. I can already hear the buzzing. The buzzing of bees.
Click to expand...

Halo 3 is probably the only game that can sell systems outside of a holiday season, except for maybe GTA IV. The rest of those games would have been incentives to sway holiday decisions, but won't likely move any hardware otherwise. I think Luke had it right when he said this was the time for Microsoft to make a move and it just hasn't happened yet. They'll still be in relatively good position after New Year's, so it's not that big of a deal, but they could have made Sony's headache bigger.

Edit: I spoke too soon, I think there are other games and franchises that move systems, obviously, like Final Fantasy and Mario or Zelda. But I think true system selling individual games are literally only a handful. All the other decisions I think are based on collective lineups and not really tied to when something is released. That's just my opinion, anyway.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Odysseus said:
Halo 3 is probably the only game that can sell systems outside of a holiday season, except for maybe GTA IV. The rest of those games would have been incentives to sway holiday decisions, but won't likely move any hardware otherwise. I think Luke had it right when he said this was the time for Microsoft to make a move and it just hasn't happened yet. They'll still be in relatively good position after New Year's, so it's not that big of a deal, but they could have made Sony's headache bigger.
Click to expand...

There were like 5 different people asking when Halo 3 was coming out today. Pretty much everyone had heard the "IT'LL LAUNCH WHEN PS3 LAUNCHES" line (thanks a lot to whatever thieving "genius" thought that up), so they were expecting it SOON.

But uh... Nope. Most likely next holiday. Think about it doofuses, it took 3 years to make Halo 2. Why would it take less to make Halo 3? Jeez.
 
D

donny2112

Member
AniHawk said:
But uh... Nope. Most likely next holiday. Think about it doofuses, it took 3 years to make Halo 2. Why would it take less to make Halo 3? Jeez.
Click to expand...

I'm still thinking next Summer, though, if that's the case, you'd think we'd have heard more by now. The thinking is GTA4 next October, so Halo 3 in the Summer (with a $50 price drop) to prevent cannabalizing sales. Also, that would put Halo 3 launching at about the time PS3 shortages may be letting up.
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
AniHawk said:
There were like 5 different people asking when Halo 3 was coming out today. Pretty much everyone had heard the "IT'LL LAUNCH WHEN PS3 LAUNCHES" line (thanks a lot to whatever thieving "genius" thought that up), so they were expecting it SOON.

But uh... Nope. Most likely next holiday. Think about it doofuses, it took 3 years to make Halo 2. Why would it take less to make Halo 3? Jeez.
Click to expand...

Do you think that may hurt MS this holiday season? I mean people expecting Halo 3 to be out with getting the 360 this season too.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
I caved in and submit my official predictions.

Gamecube FTW

NDS: 346k
PlayStation 2 322k
X360: 264k
GBA: 187k
PSP: 185k
NGC: 44k
XBX: 8.6k
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
donny2112 said:
I'm still thinking next Summer, though, if that's the case, you'd think we'd have heard more by now. The thinking is GTA4 next October, so Halo 3 in the Summer (with a $50 price drop) to prevent cannabalizing sales. Also, that would put Halo 3 launching at about the time PS3 shortages may be letting up.
Click to expand...
7/7/07

beleive
 
A

AniHawk

Member
mckmas8808 said:
Do you think that may hurt MS this holiday season? I mean people expecting Halo 3 to be out with getting the 360 this season too.
Click to expand...

I don't think it'll hurt MS. Sony is basically a nonfactor, and if MS has a huge megagame anyway that diverts even more attention.

Of course, I'm leaving Nintendo out of this. I have no ****ing clue what they're going to do
-but in the West I predict FAIL FAIL FAIL
 
Norse

Norse

Member
2nrnf49.gif



:lol :lol :lol


wth is this from?

I used to think it was shane from 1up yours before he answered a ps3 question. hehe....but now that I've seen shane, its obviously not him.
 
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