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Official July 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

I

Innotech

Banned
jonabbey said:
The 360 doesn't bundle a hi-def movie disc player. A fair number of folks have been buying HDTV sets, and the PS3 is finally an across-the-board stellar Blu-Ray and DVD player, what with all the firmware upgrades.

Still..

[NDS] 400,000
[WII] 345,000
[PSP] 210,000
[PS2] 190,000
[PS3] 175,000 - Price drop, 5 free Blu-Ray disc deal, retailer Blu-Ray movie promotions
[360] 160,000 - Big publicity for XBox 360 hardware issues, no price drop
Click to expand...

its still 500$ which isnt a huge leap from 600. I know people want the Ps3 to rebound, but its a 4 week month apparently and even a rise in sales per week isnt going to vault the thing over 200k. 165k maybe
 
G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
I am surprised at some of the low numbers predicted for PS3. IMO, it will do more than 200K. Maybe even 250K.

PS3 60G is still available and was (is?) number 1 in Amazon ranking.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
[NDS] 455,000
[PSP] 235,000
[Wii] 325,000
[PS2] 220,000
[PS3] 135,000
[360] 152,000
[GBA] 93,000

[PS2] NCAA Football 2008 - 550,000
[360] NCAA Football 2008 - 460,000
[PS2] Harry Potter: The Order of the Phoenix - 300,000
[Wii] Mario Strikers Charged - 260,000
[PS2] Guitar Heroes: 80's Edition - 190,000
[Wii] Wii Play - 150,000
[NDS] Harry Potter: The Order of the Phoenix - 125,000
[360] All Pro Football 2k8 - 120,000
[Wii] Pokemon Battle Revolution - 110,000
[PS3] Ninja Gaiden Sigma - 90,000
Click to expand...
 
C

capslock

Is jealous of Matlock's emoticon
NDS [425,000]
Wii [310,000]
PS2 [230,000]
PSP [230,000]
XBox 360 [225,000]
PS3 [160,000]
GBA [80,000]
 
I

Innotech

Banned
Gadfly said:
I am surprised at some of the low numbers predicted for PS3. IMO, it will do more than 200K. Maybe even 250K.

PS3 60G is still available and was (is?) number 1 in Amazon ranking.
Click to expand...
actually right now the xbox360 is #1
 
Yoboman

Yoboman

Member
Innotech said:
its still 500$ which isnt a huge leap from 600. I know people want the Ps3 to rebound, but its a 4 week month apparently and even a rise in sales per week isnt going to vault the thing over 200k. 165k maybe
Click to expand...
It is a month where PS3 will be rebounding and that's the point. The difference between 100k and 200k isn't that large, it just seems to be infeasible because it hasn't been to the mark in awhile. On a month where the sales surge from a price drop, I don't see how it's as unlikely as you make it seem, it's not a plateau month
 
T

thestopsign

Member
Gadfly said:
I am surprised at some of the low numbers predicted for PS3. IMO, it will do more than 200K. Maybe even 250K.

PS3 60G is still available and was (is?) number 1 in Amazon ranking.
Click to expand...

Amazon rankings have never meant much anywhere in the world. Sure it can give you a general barometer on how things are going, but beside it you don't have any figures to back it up. The PS3 will get a bump, but not as big as what 300$ to 200$ is or any other price drop, because the price is still pretty high up there.
 
S

Sharp

Member
Gadfly said:
I am surprised at some of the low numbers predicted for PS3. IMO, it will do more than 200K. Maybe even 250K.

PS3 60G is still available and was (is?) number 1 in Amazon ranking.
Click to expand...
It's pretty close to impossible for the PS3 to be over 200k this month, actually. Even using Sony's original estimate of a 135% increase in sales for the first two weeks after the price drop, which obviously didn't last (and which we knew wouldn't last at the time), it still wouldn't have sold more than 200k. With the new, revised figure, chances are even more shockingly low that it will sell over 200k. Odysseus, in other words, is safe. And this month, the 360's pricedrop, however frustrating in a blue-balls sort of way it may be, is going to overshadow the PS3's, which may cause further declines in sales. I expect a nice boost for the holidays, though, and by extremely good sales in December (> 800k).
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Gadfly said:
I am surprised at some of the low numbers predicted for PS3. IMO, it will do more than 200K. Maybe even 250K.

PS3 60G is still available and was (is?) number 1 in Amazon ranking.
Click to expand...
Sony announced 113%, caveatted by that coming from their top five retailers. 250k would be a 317% jump. Do you really think Sony's own numbers are off that far?
 
I

Innotech

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
Sony announced 113%, caveatted by that coming from their top five retailers. 250k would be a 317% jump. Do you really think Sony's own numbers are off that far?
Click to expand...
exactly.
if it was a 5 week month MAYBE, and even then a huge stretch. I think 135-160k is a more reasonable estimate and that is still plenty high for the Ps3.
 
T

tha_con

Banned
These are the numbers as I see them in my dreams:

[WII] 340,000
[NDS] 310,000
[PS2] 190,000
[PSP] 200,000
[PS3] 100,000
[360] 135,000
[GBA] 82,000
 
S

Sharp

Member
tha_con said:
I'm shocked by all the high PS3 numbers. I honestly think 100 to 110 K is the highest we'll see.
Click to expand...
This is just as unlikely. Again, according to Sony, in just the first two weeks the PS3 was already at over 90k. Another two weeks at 20k a week (lowballing) would give you 130k, and given what Sony has said I'd expect it to do considerably more than that.
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
tha_con said:
I'm shocked by all the high PS3 numbers. I honestly think 100 to 110 K is the highest we'll see.
Click to expand...

Price drop. If the PS3 is around 100-110k than the price drop would have had negligible effect. I don't think a $100 drop is going to have a negligible effect.
 
E

Evlar

Banned
ZealousD said:
Price drop. If the PS3 is around 100-110k than the price drop would have had negligible effect. I don't think a $100 drop is going to have a negligible effect.
Click to expand...
Actually 110k would be around a 38% increase, which isn't negligible. Not trying to influence anyone's guesses or anything...
 
Yoboman

Yoboman

Member
tha_con said:
I'm shocked by all the high PS3 numbers. I honestly think 100 to 110 K is the highest we'll see.
Click to expand...
They drop by $100 and you expect a 1.5k increase over last month?:lol
 
R

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
The Sphinx said:
Actually 110k would be around a 38% increase, which isn't negligible. Not trying to influence anyone's guesses or anything...
Click to expand...

What?

The PS3 sold 98.5K for June...
 
U

USD

Member
[NDS] 430,000
[WII] 310,000
[PSP] 220,000
[PS2] 200,000
[360] 150,000
[PS3] 150,000
[GBA] 80,000
[GCN] 8,000
 
RPS37

RPS37

Member
[NDS] 480,000
[WII] 360,000
[PSP] 190,000
[PS3] 160,000
[PS2] 200,000
[360] 180,000
[GBA] 80,000
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
[PS2] 240,000
[PSP] 250,000
[PS3] 167,000
[360] 160,000
[GBA] 80,000
[NGC] 5,000
[NDS] 480,000
[WII] 330,000

Software said:
1) NCAA Football 2008 PS2 500k
2) NCAA Football 2008 360 375k
3) Guitar Hero: Rocks the 80's PS2 300k
4) Wii Play Wii - 250k
5) Mario Party 8 Wii - 225k
6) All Pro Football 2008 360 - 175k
7) The Darkness 360 - 170k
8) Pokemon Diamond NDS - 160k
9) Pokemon Pearl NDS - 150k
10) Resident Evil 4 Wii - 120k

Total software = 500 million :D
Click to expand...
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Sharp said:
This is just as unlikely. Again, according to Sony, in just the first two weeks the PS3 was already at over 90k. Another two weeks at 20k a week (lowballing) would give you 130k, and given what Sony has said I'd expect it to do considerably more than that.
Click to expand...

Wait, Sony said it was over 90k in two weeks? I thought they just provided a percentage increase with a few random retailers?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Oblivion said:
Wait, Sony said it was over 90k in two weeks? I thought they just provided a percentage increase with a few random retailers?
Click to expand...
They said it was up 135% in the first two weeks in their NPD PR for the "top five retailers". In the PR on the first page, they said a cumulative of 113% for the first four weeks for the same five retailers. (Which translates to around 90% increase for the last two weeks, a drop from 135% the first two.)
 
T

TheKurgan

Member
[NDS] 450k
[WII] 310k
[PSP] 230k
[PS2] 200k
[360] 170k
[PS3] 180k - PS3 finally beats 360 and GBA - Fanboys go wild!
[GBA] 90k
 
P

PepsimanVsJoe

Member
There's only one prediction that matters to me.

<----

I've gone over the other posts that say the PS3 will break 200k....yep I'm doomed.
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
[NDS] 450,000
[WII] 350,000
[PSP] 220,000
[PS2] 250,000
[360] 160,000
[PS3] 170,000
[GBA] 90,000
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
I can't tell which would be the bigger source of meltdowns/trolling:

- PS3 breaking 200k
- PS3 failing to break 200k
- PS3 outselling 360
- PS3 barely outselling 360
- PS3 selling less than the 360
- PS3 selling less than 100k despite the top 5 retailers

In any case, it should be the most entertaining month since March.
 
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