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Official July 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

J

JCBossman

Banned
[WII] 320,000
[PS3] 145,000
[360] 182,000

The price cut for the PS3 and the Blu-ray offer will get the PS3 a good 50,000+ more sales than last month, and the warranty extension will boost the 360 by 25K,Wii is my biggest guess?
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
JCBossman said:
[WII] 320,000
[PS3] 145,000
[360] 182,000

The price cut for the PS3 and the Blu-ray offer will get the PS3 a good 50,000+ more sales than last month, and the warranty extension will boost the 360 by 25K,Wii is my biggest guess?
Click to expand...

i don't think something like a warranty extension is going to have an effect on sales. if anything, i think 360 sales will sag somewhat as rumors of the price drop spread over the last couple weeks of the period, obviously to more than rebound in august.
 
M

Markster

Member
Alright, I'm doing this all boring-like:
A straight-up linear extrapolation based on the average week of may and june.
I couldn't find April NPD, so no quadratic extrapolation for me. :(

Much to my surprise, most of the systems went up over that period! Alright, let's hope that all those kids that didn't get end-of-school-year gifts from daddy got themselves a job, and are going to buy one on their own.

[PS3] 76,092 - probably higher, thanks to price/value adjustment
[PS2] 248,480
[PSP] 243,583
[360] 162,600
[WII] 275,789 - seems low, but then again, supply finally met demand.
[NDS] 477,533
[GBA] 101,449
[NGC] 9,000 - there wasn't any data from june, so I'm just guessing this one based on May, and a hope that people are slowly deciding to stop buying it.
 
S

sleeping_dragon

Banned
PepsimanVsJoe said:
No worries. I have the Sleeping Dragon on my side.



How can I go wrong with Zhuge Liang?
Click to expand...

but im still human after all. :D but i will tell you this, the battle of red cliff (not talking about John Woo movie btw) wont be coming anytime soon, this is icing on the cake, wait til December and everything will be very interesting.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Odysseus said:
i don't think something like a warranty extension is going to have an effect on sales. if anything, i think 360 sales will sag somewhat as rumors of the price drop spread over the last couple weeks of the period, obviously to more than rebound in august.
Click to expand...
I adjusted my 360 sales down two notches, one for the PS3 price cut - some lost sales in its wake - and another because of rumors/expectations of a price cut. I didn't drop it a LOT - but I think those are factors that will play into July sales a bit.
 
O

Odysseus

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
I adjusted my 360 sales down two notches, one for the PS3 price cut - some lost sales in its wake - and another because of rumors/expectations of a price cut. I didn't drop it a LOT - but I think those are factors that will play into July sales a bit.
Click to expand...

yeah, i didn't drop it much, and that may very well come back to bite me. a straight weekly average transition would put it around 160k, and i predicted 150k.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Odysseus said:
yeah, i didn't drop it much, and that may very well come back to bite me. a straight weekly average transition would put it around 160k, and i predicted 150k.
Click to expand...
Exactly what I did.

Kind of a non-prediction, but I think we'll see some deja vu with Microsoft's NPD PR. Sony deflected their low June numbers by the first disclosure of how the price cut impacted sales after the June period. I'm anticipating the same from Microsoft this month.
 
W

watership

Member
Odysseus said:
i don't think something like a warranty extension is going to have an effect on sales. if anything, i think 360 sales will sag somewhat as rumors of the price drop spread over the last couple weeks of the period, obviously to more than rebound in august.
Click to expand...

Exactly. 360 potential buyers went through a "wait and see" period last month (One of at least 5 such periods people talk about. Wait for x number of games. wait for new chips. wait for price drop. wait for non breaking systems) If there is a sale bump do to the warranty, I'll be surprised.
 
P

PepsimanVsJoe

Member
Things are looking up.

Sorry Segata but even though I'm not familiar with kadfly's post history I think he's way more credible than you.

I am so dead. Like Phoenix Wright sweating gifs dead.

Mods:
I will be at work next Thursday so I'll miss most of the NPD thread. Can I be granted at least one mercy post? It would make my banning all the sweeter if I could just say "zOMG" or something equally retarded.
 
G

Gadfly

While flying into a tree he exclaimed "Egad!"
Odysseus said:
!
Click to expand...
People are underestimating the effect of PS3 price drop and wait and see attitude of potential 360 buyers (in anticipation of a price drop) in July.
 
B

B-Rad Lascelle

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
They said it was up 135% in the first two weeks in their NPD PR for the "top five retailers". In the PR on the first page, they said a cumulative of 113% for the first four weeks for the same five retailers. (Which translates to around 90% increase for the last two weeks, a drop from 135% the first two.)
Click to expand...
If you do the math and work out the per-week breakdown with a direct 113% increase from June's numbers (albeit with the Sony top-five retailer spin), you're looking at just under 168K in sales for July.

I'd ballpark the final NPD tally at around 150-160K or thereabouts. If it works out to anything less, it'll be hard to take any of Sony's sales hyperbole at face value.
 
P

PepsimanVsJoe

Member
Gadfly said:
People are underestimating the effect of PS3 price drop and wait and see attitude of potential 360 buyers (in anticipation of a price drop) in July.
Click to expand...

And that's what is up.
By next week the haters will be going down like a twinkie at a fat camp.

I hate myself.
 
C

Cooter

Lacks the power of instantaneous movement
[NDS] 515,000
[WII] 370000
[PSP] 240000
[PS3] 120000
[PS2] 230000
[360] 170000
[GBA] 87000
 
D

Dalauz

Member
[NDS] 460,000
[WII] 366,000
[PSP] 200,000
[PS3] 140,000
[PS2] 230,000
[360] 175,000
[GBA] 89,000

/edit Thanks for the head up Cheesmeiter! changed wii 366,00 to 366,000 and PS2 23,000 to 230,000.
 
S

Stop It

Perfectly able to grasp the inherent value of the fishing game.
[NDS] 445k
[WII] 340k
[PSP] 239k
[PS2] 205k
[360] 190k
[PS3] 145k
[GBA] 82k
 
T

Tempy

don't ask me for codes
[PS3] 140,000 - First time player! PS3 slight boost!
[PS2] 210,000 - Everything else I've eyeballed low.
[PSP] 250,000
[360] 145,000
[WII] 315,000
[NDS] 460,000
[GBA] 87,000
 
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