Cheesemeister
Member
Rankings with the following numbers...
NPD said:
the parser said:
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Official May 2007 NPD Prediction Thread
- Thread starter Grampa Simpson
- Start date
Cheesemeister
Member
AstroLad said:
Actually, it's the sum of GAF predictions divided by the number of GAF predictions. So, GAF as a whole.
Flakster99
Member
schuelma said:
Hehe. Bottom 6% here. Next month I'll take my time and wait till the last day to make my prediction.
Cheesemeister
Member
Rankings with precise numbers for everything but Xbox.
NPD said:
the parser said:
Earthstrike
Member
134. kpop100 - 208,673
134. Earthstrike - 208,673
Exact tie here.
I saw one a bit above too.
Would ties be expected given the number of significant digits in the numbers?
134. Earthstrike - 208,673
Exact tie here.
I saw one a bit above too.
Would ties be expected given the number of significant digits in the numbers?
sonycowboy
Member
JDSN said:
You do even better if you use my scoring system (minus the 25 point bonus which is a bitch to try and do with Excel (will likely need a program to do it). It rewards you based on your percentage for each system, so you aren't overly punished for being off on the Wii and NDS when you absolutely nailed the others.
Here's the folks with over 140 points.
NOTE: Fanduck was the first to have all ordinal positions correct, so he would have won. Nobody else in the top 20 got all correct. The PSP > PS2 got almost everyone and for those it didn't, the PS3 > GBA got them.
It's a damn tough thing to get those right.
sonycowboy
Member
All this workup on the prediction thread and NO responses?
I think both formula's need a little working on. And I think voting should ideally be secret as I'm quite sure it influences folks predictions.
I think both formula's need a little working on. And I think voting should ideally be secret as I'm quite sure it influences folks predictions.
Cheesemeister
Member
sonycowboy said:
Everyone's too busy in the other 3 sales threads. I have to wonder if prediction results need a new thread when precise numbers come in.
As far as voting goes, voting in public encourages participation... Though I have a few thoughts as to how I'd go about implementing a website for it that would retain the forum community factor.
Wyndstryker
Member
#77
Didn't do too bad lol.
Didn't do too bad lol.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
I voted with my gut, and I beat Patcher at #123.
sonycowboy said:
I have it setup to calculate it in Access. I just need the user prediction raw data.
Cheesemeister said:
If you setup a website to do software predictions, too, I can provide the system/title combinations.
Can you PM me the printout of user's and their individual system predictions?
Edit:
On the subject of the actual predictions, I think I did pretty darn good this month by being off by < 150K. That was only good enough for #58, though. :lol
sonycowboy
Member
Perhaps the top 10 can give us pearls of wisdom. Or more reasonably, what their prediction methodologies are. Overall, GAF just killed this month with good predictions.
Top 10 by absolute
Top 10 by my voting system (not including bonus)
Top 10 by absolute
Top 10 by my voting system (not including bonus)
I honestly don't get why the PSP went up this month. Why not in April, the first full month of the price drop? Maybe the general public wasn't aware of the price drop until just about every store advertised the new price in every Sunday's ad for May. If that's the case, it would indicate that the PSP is getting into more mainstream hands now.
Was there any increase in PSP software for May over April?
Was there any increase in PSP software for May over April?
sonycowboy
Member
Donny and Cheese,donny2112 said:
Look at the Sphinx's numbers compared to actuals. Because he predicted 219k on the PSP, he won, even though he was ~more off than many others on the rest of the HW. The average on GAF was off by 55k on the PSP, killing many many folks (more off than the Wii or the NDS on average, amazingly)
In my rankings, he was also 2nd. Only 48th in the percentage amount, but jumped 25 points because of the ordinal ranking. So, I'd have to agree that that gives way too many points when it moves someone from 48th -> 2nd. With that formula it should only give like a 5 point bonus or so.
sonycowboy
Member
Dice Man said:
You might be #2 in both, it depends on if someone less than 25 points away from you got all the positions right. Given the close scores, I'd say you'd fall a few positions once Donny get's to run that formula for the 25 point bonus.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
amazing, that's the first time i've ever even registered :lol
Clever Pun
Member
17th... hmm... I guess that's top 20 at least. Still, one of my worst performances of the year
sonycowboy said:
apujanata brought that up, and we decided to reduce it to a 15 point score for the cardinal positions. There is also a bonus for finishing in the top 10 by units, though. See the thread here.
1. 15 points for getting hardware positions correct.
2. 20 points * (percentage of correct units for hardware system); anything over 100% difference = 0 points. Maximum points: 140
3. Bonus points for finishing in the top 10 by units for the month:
#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point
We may want to adjust again depending on how the points come out from this.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
Brak said:
PSP certainly came out of nowhere. That was my biggest discrepency.
donny2112 said:
Originally, I suggested 5-10 points bonus for the correct cardinal position. We can reduce the 15 points to 10 or 5. It should not be below 5, since it will be very, very insignificant.
Like most Neogaffers, I am way, way off on PSP.
PS2 : 19.76 (closest)
360: 19.35 (second closest)
PS3 : 19.17 (third closest)
GBA : 17.65
NDS : 17.79
Wii : 16.94 (second worst)
PSP : 15.38 (worst)
You noticed that too, eh? Someone could have simply found the GAF average an hour or two before the deadline, entered those, and ended up at 11th or 12th position on the difference poll. Or tweaked the numbers around slightly in an attempt to get closer to the top. (I didn't do that.)sonycowboy said:
GAF was phenomenally accurate, en mass, at predicting NPD this month. Is it normally this good? I would guess the GAF average is always fairly high but rarely THIS high.
Methodology: I simply found a huge sample of user data from a set of users with proven similar market trends, weighted the values from that sample data according to past trends, and adjusted THAT weighted data based on anecdotal evidence from GAF and gut instinct. Of course, my "huge sample of user data" was the May Canadian NPD.
Lots of people were estimating US NPD by taking Canada NPD and multiplying it by a factor of ten for all consoles. I took this a step further, went back to look at Canada and US NPD data from April, and arrived at a ratio for the sales for each system in the two territories. Like this:
Code:
RATIO OF APRIL HARDWARE SALES: USA / CAN
[NDS] = 13.49570201
[Wii] = 8.551068884
[PSP] = 15.12396694
[PS2] = 10.77777778
[360] = 13.59375000
[PS3] = 11.38888889
[GBA] = 10.63291139
[Sum] = 11.46666667Then simply take all those values, multiplied by the reported May Canada NPD numbers, and come up with a set of base numbers, like this:
Code:
EXTRAPOLATED MAY USA NPD HARDWARE SALES, FROM MAY CANADA NPD DATA:
[NDS] = 13.49570201 * 35900 = 484500
[Wii] = 8.551068884 * 37300 = 319000
[PSP] = 15.12396694 * 15000 = 226900
[PS2] = 10.77777778 * 18200 = 196200
[360] = 13.59375000 * 12300 = 167200
[PS3] = 11.38888889 * 6500 = 74000
[GBA] = 10.63291139 * 6100 = 64900
Code:
PREDICTED MAY 2007 USA NPD HARDWARE SALES:
[NDS] 447000
[WII] 335000
[PSP] 219000
[PS2] 196000
[360] 164000
[PS3] 71000
[GBA] 67000
[GCN] 7000May 2007 NPD Points Results
1. The Sphinx - 162.48
2. Dice Man - 146.12
3. Fuzzy - 142.24
4. cvxfreak - 141.94
4. LiquidMamba - 141.94
6. TwinsDad - 141.18
7. davepoobond - 139.43
8. kassatsu - 137.92
9. rage1973 - 135.19
10. borghe - 134.75
Last 3 months
1. The Sphinx - 392.65
2. BuzzJive - 389.05
3. apujanata - 379.49
4. Heidir - 371.27
5. Jokeropia - 366.74
6. Tf53 - 365.33
7. Clever Pun - 365.15
8. Branduil - 362.84
9. Bildi - 360.00
10. TheKurgan - 359.64
2007
1. BuzzJive - 616.13
2. sonycowboy - 616.05
3. argon - 608.37
4. GhaleonEB - 601.32
5. donny2112 - 600.42
6. Clever Pun - 589.90
7. JoshuaJSlone - 587.83
8. rage1973 - 576.92
9. duderon - 576.00
10. starship - 573.40
I'll be updating the website with the points for the year tomorrow.
Edit:
:lol
Nice, The Sphinx. Maybe we should end the predictions early, after all. :lol
1. The Sphinx - 162.48
2. Dice Man - 146.12
3. Fuzzy - 142.24
4. cvxfreak - 141.94
4. LiquidMamba - 141.94
6. TwinsDad - 141.18
7. davepoobond - 139.43
8. kassatsu - 137.92
9. rage1973 - 135.19
10. borghe - 134.75
Last 3 months
1. The Sphinx - 392.65
2. BuzzJive - 389.05
3. apujanata - 379.49
4. Heidir - 371.27
5. Jokeropia - 366.74
6. Tf53 - 365.33
7. Clever Pun - 365.15
8. Branduil - 362.84
9. Bildi - 360.00
10. TheKurgan - 359.64
2007
1. BuzzJive - 616.13
2. sonycowboy - 616.05
3. argon - 608.37
4. GhaleonEB - 601.32
5. donny2112 - 600.42
6. Clever Pun - 589.90
7. JoshuaJSlone - 587.83
8. rage1973 - 576.92
9. duderon - 576.00
10. starship - 573.40
I'll be updating the website with the points for the year tomorrow.
Edit:
:lol
Nice, The Sphinx. Maybe we should end the predictions early, after all. :lol
The Sphinx said:
Well, I think most of us are also "extrapolating", in addition to "predicting" (at least, I know I did). However, I do believe having the Canada May NPD data enabled you to get better result. I choose not to change my prediction, and I paid for it.
My sugestion is that we should let the result stand for this month, but in the future, we should cut off the predictions a day earlier.
Code:
Last 3 months
1. The Sphinx - 392.65
2. BuzzJive - 389.05
3. apujanata - 379.49
4. Heidir - 371.27
5. Jokeropia - 366.74
6. Tf53 - 365.33
7. Clever Pun - 365.15
8. Branduil - 362.84
9. Bildi - 360.00
10. TheKurgan - 359.64I am happy I get #3 on the last 3 months list. I hope to improve it in the future.
I note that the difference between #1 and #10 is around 8.4% (from the #1 value), which means that it is a tight race.
donny2112 said:May 2007 NPD Points Results
1. The Sphinx - 162.48
2. Dice Man - 146.12
3. Fuzzy - 142.24
4. cvxfreak - 141.94
4. LiquidMamba - 141.94
6. TwinsDad - 141.18
7. davepoobond - 139.43
8. kassatsu - 137.92
9. rage1973 - 135.19
10. borghe - 134.75
Last 3 months
1. The Sphinx - 392.65
2. BuzzJive - 389.05
3. apujanata - 379.49
4. Heidir - 371.27
5. Jokeropia - 366.74
6. Tf53 - 365.33
7. Clever Pun - 365.15
8. Branduil - 362.84
9. Bildi - 360.00
10. TheKurgan - 359.64
2007
1. BuzzJive - 616.13
2. sonycowboy - 616.05
3. argon - 608.37
4. GhaleonEB - 601.32
5. donny2112 - 600.42
6. Clever Pun - 589.90
7. JoshuaJSlone - 587.83
8. rage1973 - 576.92
9. duderon - 576.00
10. starship - 573.40
I'll be updating the website with the points for the year tomorrow.
Edit:
:lol
Nice, The Sphinx. Maybe we should end the predictions early, after all. :lol
Can you expand the list so that it cover Top 30, just like M-create ? or even Top 50, like Famitsu ?
It will make the race more interesting, since more people are encouraged to refine their prediction (instead of the current 10)
perfectchaos007
Member
Darn, well, at least I beat Pachter. But theres almost no where to go but up for me.
Cheesemeister
Member
BuzzJive said:Nice work big Cheese!
Handhelds absolutely killed me this month. Since I know you dig this sort of thing - can you do a console only chart
Sure. Results with 360, PS3, and WII only...
the parser said:
_Alkaline_
Member
Wow, I'm way too conservative. I got killed by my low Wii predictions.
gollumsluvslave
Member
Orig predictions:-
Getting PS2 and PSP almost exactly the opposite cost me a few places though, and so did underestimating both NDS and Wii by 20k each.
Pretty darned close on 360 and PS3 though, which are the ones I've really been paying attention too over the last few months.
360 now at 38k a week - it's most definitely starting a decline. Price Drop necessary.
Not too shabby for 16th place
Getting PS2 and PSP almost exactly the opposite cost me a few places though, and so did underestimating both NDS and Wii by 20k each.Pretty darned close on 360 and PS3 though, which are the ones I've really been paying attention too over the last few months.
360 now at 38k a week - it's most definitely starting a decline. Price Drop necessary.