Support NeoGAF

[Cheesemeister]

I'm missing something.

Oh Wait. Never mind. Canada*10. Are we calling that the cut-off?

I'm for letting the predictions be closed as of just over an hour ago. So yeah, I'd say that's a wrap.

mmm Forza & SPM love.

HW sales for the lazy to read paragraphs:

Wii - 37,300
DS - 35,900
PS2 - 18,200
PSP - 15,000
360 - 12,300
PS3 - 6,500
GBA - 6,100

a rough estimate of US sales would be multiplying all those figures by 10.

[WII] 373,000
[NDS] 359,000
[PS2] 182,000
[PSP] 150,000
[360] 123,000
[PS3] 65,000
[GBA] 61,000
[NGC] 30,000

 

[Fuzzy]

I'm for letting the predictions be closed as of just over an hour ago. So yeah, I'd say that's a wrap.

I don't care about my predictions counting, I just want you to include them to see how they would've ranked.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Prediction cut-off updated in the OP.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Prediction cut-off updated in the OP.

It just says "Prediction Cut-off: I really just don't know anymore. It may have already happened."

 

[Grampa Simpson]

It just says "Prediction Cut-off: I really just don't know anymore. It may have already happened."

Yep. If I knew, I'd say. For all I know sonycowboy could still show up again today and throw everything out of whack again.

 

[donny2112]

It looks like no previews will be happening this time aside from Pachter's but I don't think it's such a bad idea.

Lazard's is out, but I don't think he gave specific numbers.

Otherwise it's mostly been yours for the past few months, and I wouldn't have posted it up if it hadn't seemed to be rather late for it to not have been created yet.

That's how I started in January. It was three days before the numbers were "supposed" to come out and no Pachter thread (the defacto place for predictions beforehand). January got extended to 5 weeks and then delayed, and I've done it the last couple of months, too. I like doing it, as well.

In the future I'll be happy to leave it in your capable hands, but I'll also be happy to fill in for you in any case where you'll be otherwise occupied.

I don't have a monopoly on it, but thanks for the consideration. How do you feel about those "standard" prediction thread elements posted earlier?

I do want to add SW next month, knowing it won't get nearly the action the HW predictions will.

Less entries for software will be very welcome. There are quite a few ways for someone to write a game's name, so a parser probably wouldn't be possible. That leaves hand entry for a random assortment of games. I'll be all for the "requirements" coming back and excluding anyone who doesn't meet them. :lol

Those predictions will seperate the men from the boys.

They're also a lot of work/fun.

It's excluded if no actual NPD number is provided. Of course, if we do get a sales figure for it and you haven't made a guess, you get that amount added to your total of absolute differences used in the ranking.

I've intentionally not been including GameCube in the unit rankings because 1) I'm not sure when NPD will stop reporting it (I'm surprised it's gone on this long) and 2) it's hard enough to get people to predict for the systems that are selling.

Guys, Canadian numbers are out (its been a couple of hours), including HW. Cut off should be now I hope.

I last ran the parser at 6:51 PM Eastern, so that should be that, yes?

Canadian numbers don't help much more/any than analyst numbers. It's not like there is consistency enough between Canada and the U.S. to amount to much when it comes to predictions. Therefore, the prediction thread should still go through tomorrow.

 

[Fuzzy]

Canadian numbers don't help much more/any than analyst numbers. It's not like there is consistency enough between Canada and the U.S. to amount to much when it comes to predictions. Therefore, the prediction thread should still go through tomorrow.

Will you still be saying that when I rank first with a difference of less than 15K? :lol

 

[donny2112]

Will you still be saying that when I rank first with a difference of less than 15K? :lol

I have no problem with someone making predictions up until NPD is released and beating the pants off of me. Do it consistently, and I'll actually think you're pretty good at predictions.

 

[Fuzzy]

I have no problem with someone making predictions up until NPD is released and beating the pants off of me. Do it consistently, and I'll actually think you're pretty good at predictions.

Maybe I'll start a website and then make weekly predictions.

 

[donny2112]

Maybe I'll start a website and then make weekly predictions.

Ooh, ooh. Can you poll your local GameStops and ask members of your website to do the same to get a rough idea of sales each week?

 

[Grampa Simpson]

I don't have a monopoly on it, but thanks for the consideration. How do you feel about those "standard" prediction thread elements posted earlier?

Those standards are about right. The cut-off time is probably correct too, but I think that there will still be a bit of discussion on it anyway. I think that after the results are released, they should be added to the opening post as well. When these go to archive, or are locked, or are just not posted in anymore, I want them to be where anyone can just look at the first post and get an idea of what the predictions were, who won, and everything else between.

There should be almost a professional standardized sheen to the first post like you could print out the first post of several months, staple them together, and have a very good idea of the state of the video game industry in the US.

 

[donny2112]

There should be almost a professional standardized sheen to the first post like you could print out the first post of several months, staple them together, and have a very good idea of the state of the video game industry in the US.

Maybe add some graphs. :lol The trick is in not making the post so long that people stop trying to read it half way down. I like the "add the prediction winners" to the first post idea.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

My Predictions - Moved from the first post

[NDS] 475k
[WII] 400k
[PS2] 200k
[PSP] 180k
[360] 175k
[GBA] 75k
[PS3] 75k

[GCN] 12k
[XBX] 0K

 

[Fuzzy]

Ooh, ooh. Can you poll your local GameStops and ask members of your website to do the same to get a rough idea of sales each week?

I'm going to start in Canada and expand to the US later. Eventually I'll also include European countries and "other regions". I won't bother with Japan, I'll just average the different tracking services there and use those numbers.

 

[donny2112]

I won't bother with Japan, I'll just average the different tracking services there and use those numbers.

But if you're sure of your numbers, why do you need to still pay attention to the "old-school" tracking services? Wouldn't your numbers be "close enough?"

 

[Fuzzy]

But if you're sure of your numbers, why do you need to still pay attention to the "old-school" tracking services? Wouldn't your numbers be "close enough?"

But I wouldn't have any numbers of my own since I would want to focus my energies at the other emerging regions. India, South Korea, and South America would all need more of my attention.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

I think I must have missed part of the ioi argument way back when.

 

[donny2112]

India, South Korea, and South America would all need more of my attention.

Yes, yes. Wise you are. India, Oman, Indonesia. They all need more study.

Spoiler

 

[Fuzzy]

I think I must have missed part of the ioi argument way back when.

I'm just taking it to the next logical level. I'm going to sue when he steals my idea.

 

[Beer Monkey]

[NDS] 429k
[WII] 388k
[360] 210k
[PS2] 175k
[PSP] 169k
[GBA] 72k
[PS3] 79k
[GCN] 9k

 

[Deku]

Canadian numbers don't help much more/any than analyst numbers. It's not like there is consistency enough between Canada and the U.S. to amount to much when it comes to predictions. Therefore, the prediction thread should still go through tomorrow.

It's a pretty fair representation of how well the HW did, even if cdn x10 doesn't yield the actual US sales.

 

[michaeld]

Some people take these numbers way too serious.

 

[donny2112]

It's a pretty fair representation of how well the HW did, even if cdn x10 doesn't yield the actual US sales.

Find out whoever's leading the points system and take their hardware predictions for May. It'll probably be closer than 10x the Canadian numbers.

Will predicting based off the Canadian numbers help you do decently? Yes.
Will it help you win? Highly unlikely.
Are there better numbers to guess off of than the Canadian numbers? You betcha.

 

[sonycowboy]

Might be too late, but that's what happens when you work 80 hour weeks for a job. I'll likely miss the release of the data tomorrow, but EvilLore should get it or Gamedaily/Gamespot. I'll try to get her, but I'm not too sure about it.

Anyway, my rushed predictions, without looking at the Canadian numbers at all for influence.

[NDS] 430,320
[WII] 349,200
[PS2] 184,300
[360] 177,480
[PSP] 168,360
[PS3] 78,440
[GBA] 74,760
[GCN] 11,440


My particular methodology is looking at the trending for the past several months and then looking at historical trending from April to May, finally accounting for the effect of big titles released.

We'll see, but tomorrow should be more fun. The real question is has the PS3 hit rock bottom, has the Wii hit regular shipments, what does the Elite do for the 360, and do the PS2 & GBA finally show their age a bit more than they have been. NDS will be spectucular regardless, just with no Pokemon coming the same month.

 

[Cheesemeister]

Might be too late, but that's what happens when you work 80 hour weeks for a job. I'll likely miss the release of the data tomorrow, but EvilLore should get it or Gamedaily/Gamespot. I'll try to get her, but I'm not too sure about it.

What's her name?

Anyways, I'll throw you crazy kids a bone and set a timer to download this thread at 4 PM Eastern today/tomorrow (Thursday). Good luck!

Current stats...

Number of contestants: 191

PS2 - Avg. = 187,996; Expected Range = 175,000 to 275,000
PSP - Avg. = 169,985; Expected Range = 160,000 to 200,000
PS3 - Avg. = 78,356; Expected Range = 65,000 to 100,000
XBX - Avg. = 897; Expected Range = 122 to 2,000
360 - Avg. = 180,497; Expected Range = 145,000 to 220,000
GBA - Avg. = 78,563; Expected Range = 70,000 to 90,000
NGC - Avg. = 11,073; Expected Range = 4,000 to 15,000
NDS - Avg. = 439,193; Expected Range = 400,000 to 500,000
WII - Avg. = 347,295; Expected Range = 250,000 to 400,000

List of contestants, ranked supposing the Pachter numbers were the actuals...

1. Pachter - 0
2. perfectchaos007 - 109,000
3. Earthstrike - 110,000
4. Freki - 117,000
5. Deku - 125,000
6. jarrod - 128,000
7. bmf - 130,000
7. kpop100 - 130,000
9. jamesinclair - 131,000
10. All Hail C-Webb - 135,000
11. Hyllian - 143,000
12. Omnicent - 153,000
13. Shin Johnpv - 160,000
14. starship - 162,000
15. Sule - 165,000
15. Warm Machine - 165,000
15. JoshuaJSlone - 165,000
18. Xzbeat - 166,000
19. dark_preacher - 167,000
20. schuelma - 170,000
20. Taurus - 170,000
22. C4Lukins - 174,000
23. apujanata - 175,000
24. the thoroughbred - 176,000
25. Michan - 177,000
26. beermonkey@tehbias - 178,000
27. Frankfurter - 179,000
28. Patton - 180,000
28. Orlics - 180,000
30. TheKingsCrown - 181,000
30. STG! - 181,000
32. Jammy - 183,000
33. Fio Maravilha - 185,000
34. Saitou - 190,000
35. Mrbob - 194,000
36. Fredescu - 195,000
37. TwinsDad - 196,000
37. Empty_One - 196,000
39. sp0rsk - 200,000
39. BrodiemanTTR - 200,000
39. LOCK - 200,000
39. Sgt. Killjoy - 200,000
39. jepense - 200,000
44. Stop It - 201,000
45. Bildi - 202,000
46. B_Rik_Schitthaus - 204,000
46. AirBrian - 204,000
48. Jokeropia - 205,000
49. Branduil - 206,000
50. NinSoX - 207,000
51. mood - 208,000
51. argon - 208,000
51. DayShallCome - 208,000
54. Kurosaki Ichigo - 210,000
54. jey_16 - 210,000
54. fanduck - 210,000
54. verplant - 210,000
58. Heidir - 211,000
58. duderon - 211,000
60. Ch Totoro - 212,000
60. Blablurn - 212,000
62. Square2005 - 216,000
63. bycha - 220,000
63. tanod - 220,000
63. MindCollizion - 220,000
66. felipeko - 221,000
66. Chibbi Brady - 221,000
68. ShutEye - 224,000
69. Maxwell House - 225,000
69. Segata Sanshiro - 225,000
69. MikeMyers - 225,000
69. Cheebs - 225,000
73. GAF Average - 225,241
74. vicious_killer_squirrel - 226,000
75. RubberJohnny - 228,000
76. Nicktals - 230,000
76. Tf53 - 230,000
76. The M.O.B - 230,000
76. Pedobear - 230,000
76. Brakara - 230,000
81. kkg1701 - 235,000
81. Diablos54 - 235,000
83. Gekkonidae - 237,000
84. sonycowboy - 237,140
85. GoldenEye 007 - 238,000
86. Dice Man - 240,000
86. TheKurgan - 240,000
86. Wyndstryker - 240,000
89. borghe - 241,000
90. JDSN - 242,000
91. Parl - 243,000
92. titiklabingapat - 245,000
92. KevinRo - 245,000
92. AzureNightmareXE - 245,000
95. Hero - 246,000
96. SuperPac - 249,000
97. Sho_Nuff82 - 250,000
97. rikitikitik - 250,000
97. dammitmattt - 250,000
97. devilscallmedad - 250,000
97. Darunia - 250,000
102. Vagabundo - 251,000
103. duk - 254,000
103. Drensch - 254,000
105. Barf_the_Mog - 255,000
105. rage1973 - 255,000
107. Chiggs - 258,000
108. Mariah Carey - 259,000
109. GhaleonEB - 265,000
109. Innotech - 265,000
109. Mr. Pointy - 265,000
109. JavyOO7 - 265,000
109. DSWii60 - 265,000
114. Cedeo - 269,000
115. underfooter - 270,000
115. Clever Pun - 270,000
115. Lorul2 - 270,000
118. LiquidMamba - 272,000
118. cvxfreak - 272,000
120. corez - 276,000
121. scionguyXB - 277,000
122. Gaborn - 279,000
123. legend166 - 280,000
124. Mr. Pachunga Chung - 282,000
125. USD - 290,000
125. VanMardigan - 290,000
125. SpacLock - 290,000
125. shagg_187 - 290,000
129. Fuzzy - 291,000
130. davepoobond - 295,000
130. Brak - 295,000
130. Snaku - 295,000
133. donny2112 - 300,000
133. kisakiproject - 300,000
133. Rancid Mildew - 300,000
133. clo1_2000 - 300,000
137. JJConrad - 300,001
138. AniHawk - 302,000
139. turtle553 - 311,000
140. gollumsluvslave - 312,000
140. CoryCubed - 312,000
142. hadareud - 320,000
142. sazzy - 320,000
144. pswii60 - 321,000
145. besada - 322,000
146. Pope Benedict XVI - 330,000
146. Mojo - 330,000
146. Odysseus - 330,000
149. DeaconKnowledge - 332,000
150. Miguga64 - 333,000
151. Orgen - 334,000
152. Chumly - 335,000
153. Forgotten Ancient - 340,000
154. John Dunbar - 341,000
155. Haunted One - 342,000
156. BuzzJive - 344,000
157. Alkaliine - 345,000
158. ksamedi - 349,000
159. Ash Sparrow - 350,000
159. BloodAdo - 350,000
161. dyls - 351,000
162. dirtmonkey37 - 360,000
162. PhoenixDark - 360,000
162. neondriver - 360,000
165. MasterMFauli - 364,000
166. Cruceh - 365,000
166. Bo130 - 365,000
168. dogonfire - 374,000
169. Crowza - 375,000
170. jj984jj - 378,000
171. oo Kosma oo - 385,000
172. Eteric Rice - 386,000
173. evlcookie - 387,000
173. Joe Molotov - 387,000
175. flipping_heck - 390,000
175. SpudBud - 390,000
177. Borys - 395,000
178. Flakster99 - 397,000
179. Hammer24 - 410,000
179. DiatribeEQ - 410,000
181. CNL - 420,000
182. Kenka - 423,000
183. crazythan - 425,000
184. kassatsu - 438,000
185. Zerostatic - 467,000
186. :enemyglider: - 490,000
187. Dizzan - 507,000
188. Ynos Yrros - 510,000
189. Merovingian - 1,120,000
190. Gahiggidy - 1,150,993
191. VALIS - 1,158,000

 

[perfectchaos007]

Hmm, me and pachter think alike. I wonder if that's a good or bad thing.

 

[apujanata]

Hmm, me and pachter think alike. I wonder if that's a good or bad thing.

both you and pachter have the following words in your id : p, a, c, h, t, e, r.

Hmm. Amazing coincidence.

Edit : I am #24 at pachter's List. I hope pachter is not right
Cheesemeister, how about a list where you use NPD Canada x 10 as the base, instead of pachter's prediction ?

Anyways, I'll throw you crazy kids a bone and set a timer to download this thread at 4 PM Eastern today/tomorrow (Thursday). Good luck!

4 PM is cutting it a little too close. How about 9AM ? 8 hours before the supposed release time.

 

[Square2005]

Why are some predictors off by over a million (ie. Gahiggidy)? Extremist fanboys or amazingly sales ignorant...?

 

[Grampa Simpson]

Why are some predictors off by over a million (ie. Gahiggidy)? Extremist fanboys or amazingly sales ignorant...?

Joke characters. Or didn't vote for most systems. I'm pretty sure Ynos Yrros is a joke character.

 

[Cheesemeister]

Cheesemeister, how about a list where you use NPD Canada x 10 as the base, instead of pachter's prediction ?

4 PM is cutting it a little too close. How about 9AM ? 8 hours before the supposed release time.

Just going by the established practice. I've got previous downloads of this thread backed up just in case.

Using Canada x10 as though they were the actuals...

1. Joe Molotov - 0
2. Chumly - 112,000
3. BuzzJive - 137,000
4. JJConrad - 137,001
5. Cruceh - 144,000
6. DiatribeEQ - 149,000
7. Cedeo - 154,000
8. turtle553 - 168,000
9. hadareud - 173,000
10. Zerostatic - 174,000
11. Forgotten Ancient - 177,000
11. SpudBud - 177,000
11. neondriver - 177,000
14. Borys - 178,000
15. Ch Totoro - 179,000
16. pswii60 - 180,000
17. legend166 - 183,000
18. DeaconKnowledge - 187,000
18. Wyndstryker - 187,000
18. Brakara - 187,000
21. Branduil - 191,000
21. :enemyglider: - 191,000
23. kkg1701 - 192,000
24. bycha - 193,000
24. Pedobear - 193,000
26. DayShallCome - 195,000
27. Tf53 - 197,000
27. LOCK - 197,000
29. sonycowboy - 197,460
30. titiklabingapat - 198,000
31. duk - 199,000
32. Nicktals - 201,000
32. Drensch - 201,000
32. LiquidMamba - 201,000
32. cvxfreak - 201,000
36. Heidir - 202,000
36. duderon - 202,000
38. TheKurgan - 203,000
39. mood - 205,000
40. davepoobond - 212,000
41. VanMardigan - 213,000
41. Clever Pun - 213,000
43. SuperPac - 216,000
44. donny2112 - 217,000
44. JDSN - 217,000
44. Hammer24 - 217,000
44. Rancid Mildew - 217,000
48. Maxwell House - 218,000
48. MikeMyers - 218,000
48. borghe - 218,000
51. argon - 219,000
52. oo Kosma oo - 220,000
53. GAF Average - 220,295
54. Empty_One - 221,000
55. Ash Sparrow - 223,000
55. GoldenEye 007 - 223,000
55. BloodAdo - 223,000
55. Kurosaki Ichigo - 223,000
55. beermonkey@tehbias - 223,000
60. Jammy - 224,000
61. the thoroughbred - 225,000
62. schuelma - 227,000
62. The M.O.B - 227,000
64. rage1973 - 228,000
64. Frankfurter - 228,000
66. Square2005 - 229,000
67. Gekkonidae - 230,000
67. Warm Machine - 230,000
69. Hero - 231,000
69. CoryCubed - 231,000
71. ksamedi - 232,000
72. dammitmattt - 233,000
72. gollumsluvslave - 233,000
72. Darunia - 233,000
72. fanduck - 233,000
72. Pope Benedict XVI - 233,000
72. starship - 233,000
72. C4Lukins - 233,000
79. besada - 235,000
80. Segata Sanshiro - 236,000
80. Dizzan - 236,000
80. John Dunbar - 236,000
83. Saitou - 237,000
84. Barf_the_Mog - 238,000
84. Jokeropia - 238,000
84. Chibbi Brady - 238,000
87. dark_preacher - 240,000
88. AniHawk - 241,000
88. Bildi - 241,000
88. AirBrian - 241,000
91. apujanata - 242,000
91. NinSoX - 242,000
91. JoshuaJSlone - 242,000
94. verplant - 243,000
95. Dice Man - 245,000
96. kisakiproject - 247,000
96. clo1_2000 - 247,000
98. GhaleonEB - 248,000
98. Bo130 - 248,000
98. STG! - 248,000
101. Gaborn - 252,000
101. DSWii60 - 252,000
103. rikitikitik - 253,000
103. USD - 253,000
103. jey_16 - 253,000
103. Mojo - 253,000
107. Vagabundo - 254,000
107. Parl - 254,000
109. ShutEye - 255,000
109. vicious_killer_squirrel - 255,000
111. dyls - 256,000
112. jj984jj - 257,000
113. Omnicent - 258,000
113. Diablos54 - 258,000
115. jamesinclair - 260,000
116. Sule - 262,000
117. kpop100 - 263,000
118. Alkaliine - 264,000
119. dogonfire - 265,000
119. Ynos Yrros - 265,000
121. bmf - 267,000
121. Taurus - 267,000
123. Mr. Pointy - 270,000
124. flipping_heck - 271,000
125. Fio Maravilha - 272,000
125. Freki - 272,000
127. CNL - 273,000
127. dirtmonkey37 - 273,000
127. TwinsDad - 273,000
127. SpacLock - 273,000
131. Cheebs - 274,000
132. Haunted One - 277,000
133. KevinRo - 278,000
133. Hyllian - 278,000
135. Chiggs - 279,000
136. BrodiemanTTR - 281,000
136. shagg_187 - 281,000
138. Brak - 282,000
138. Miguga64 - 282,000
138. Michan - 282,000
141. sp0rsk - 283,000
141. devilscallmedad - 283,000
141. PhoenixDark - 283,000
141. MindCollizion - 283,000
141. jepense - 283,000
146. scionguyXB - 286,000
147. Mrbob - 287,000
148. Stop It - 292,000
149. kassatsu - 295,000
149. Xzbeat - 295,000
151. felipeko - 296,000
151. Fredescu - 296,000
153. tanod - 297,000
154. B_Rik_Schitthaus - 299,000
154. Blablurn - 299,000
156. Patton - 301,000
157. Earthstrike - 305,000
158. Shin Johnpv - 307,000
159. Snaku - 312,000
160. RubberJohnny - 313,000
160. Odysseus - 313,000
162. Mariah Carey - 314,000
163. perfectchaos007 - 328,000
163. Fuzzy - 328,000
165. All Hail C-Webb - 332,000
166. jarrod - 333,000
167. Mr. Pachunga Chung - 335,000
168. Deku - 342,000
169. Orgen - 353,000
170. MasterMFauli - 357,000
170. corez - 357,000
172. Lorul2 - 361,000
173. evlcookie - 366,000
174. sazzy - 381,000
175. Sho_Nuff82 - 383,000
176. JavyOO7 - 384,000
177. Pachter - 387,000
178. Innotech - 388,000
179. Orlics - 393,000
180. Kenka - 394,000
181. AzureNightmareXE - 398,000
182. crazythan - 412,000
183. Flakster99 - 434,000
184. TheKingsCrown - 438,000
185. Sgt. Killjoy - 443,000
186. Crowza - 460,000
187. underfooter - 495,000
188. Eteric Rice - 507,000
189. VALIS - 889,000
190. Merovingian - 957,000
191. Gahiggidy - 1,049,993

 

[Stop It]

Just going by the established practice. I've got previous downloads of this thread backed up just in case.

Using Canada x10 as though they were the actuals...

Dear god I hope the actuals aren't like that, I'd be almost as bad as Pachter (I'm 148th according to that).

 

[RiskyChris]

Eh I forgot to guess this week, here's a quickly thrown together list of crap.

[NDS] 440k
[WII] 330k
[360] 180k
[PS2] 175k
[PSP] 155k
[GBA] 68k
[PS3] 70k
[GCN] 8k
[XBX] 0

I saw like 3x as many Wiis in April as I did in May, so I'm assuming supply was a tad more dry.

 

[F#A#Oo]

NDS] 420,320
[WII] 379,200
[PS2] 180,300
[360] 172,480
[PSP] 163,360
[GBA] 79,760
[PS3] 78,440
[GCN] 9,440

 

[spwolf]

NDS] 520,120
[WII] 45,200
[PS2] 200,450
[360] 162,320
[PSP] 195,400
[GBA] 80,000
[PS3] 968,440


:lol

 

[AniHawk]

[PS2] 200,450
[PSP] 195,400

What bizarre fantasy land do you live in where Sony is in any way relevant?

 

[Parl]

I don't usually make predictions but I'm curious how close the numbers I posted in the Canadian thread might be.

[NDS] 485K
[WII] 319K
[PSP] 227K
[PS2] 196K
[360] 167K
[PS3] 74K
[GBA] 65K

Those numbers have a strong resemblance to extrapolating May Canada NPD at the same ratio US NPD was to Canada NPD in April. What that the intention?

 

[dammitmattt]

Those numbers have a strong resemblance to extrapolating May Canada NPD at the same ratio US NPD was to Canada NPD in April. What that the intention?

That is exactly what he did in the Canadian thread. Took the April percentages and applied them to May to get these numbers. It's good as a measuring stick to compare against for shits and giggles, but dishonest to pass it off as your "guess."

 

[Parl]

That is exactly what he did in the Canadian thread. Took the April percentages and applied them to May to get these numbers. It's good as a measuring stick to compare against for shits and giggles, but dishonest to pass it off as your "guess."

Based on Feb ratios

Wii: 437,500
DS: 761,500
PS2: 231,500
PSP: 283,500
360: 226,500
PS3: 135,500

If these ratios follow a fixed trend, and counting 9 weeks between Feb and April and 4 weeks between April and May, and without being bothered to make any guesses at some curves and stuff (because Canada's correlation between with US each month seems to have no... correlation), here's May US NPD...

DS: 362,111
Wii: 266,333
PSP: 202,000
PS2: 180,000
360: 140,500
PS3: 46,500

 

[Sule]

That is exactly what he did in the Canadian thread. Took the April percentages and applied them to May to get these numbers. It's good as a measuring stick to compare against for shits and giggles, but dishonest to pass it off as your "guess."

Then you could argue that nobody really ''guesses''. Everybody has his or her own technique for ''guessing''. For example:

My particular methodology is looking at the trending for the past several months and then looking at historical trending from April to May, finally accounting for the effect of big titles released.

Using trends from the past months, historical trends etc. Nobody is really guessing. Although I could agree with you the way he got his numbers (and the Canada x 10) are a lot less ''guessing'' than sonycowboy's and other techniques.

 

[Parl]

Then you could argue that nobody really ''guesses''. Everybody has his or her own technique for ''guessing''. For example:



Using trends from the past months, historical trends etc. Nobody is really guessing. Although I could agree with you the way he got his numbers (and the Canada x 10) are a lot less ''guessing'' than sonycowboy's and other techniques.

I think it's a better idea for us all to predict the numbers before Canada numbers come though. That's not to say I think there's much of a correlation between Canada and US numbers, but there's possible hints that can be taken on board when predicting that those who like to predict early cannot.

For instance, if you notice particularly similarities/differences between Canada and US over time, like how much they're interested in driving games like Forza 2, you can have a better knowledge of the impact Forza 2 had on 360 sales, for instance.

 

[tahrikmili]

Those numbers have a strong resemblance to extrapolating May Canada NPD at the same ratio US NPD was to Canada NPD in April. What that the intention?

He's betting on a strong linear correlation between the two NPDs, is that illegal?

 

[Vagabundo]

He's betting on a strong linear correlation between the two NPDs, is that illegal?

Maybe we not suppose to use any other sources for dat except our own gut reports.

I'm not sure of the exact rules of this game.

 

[Sule]

I think it's a better idea for us all to predict the numbers before Canada numbers come though. That's not to say I think there's much of a correlation between Canada and US numbers, but there's possible hints that can be taken on board when predicting that those who like to predict early cannot.

For instance, if you notice particularly similarities/differences between Canada and US over time, like how much they're interested in driving games like Forza 2, you can have a better knowledge of the impact Forza 2 had on 360 sales, for instance.

I agree with you. The prediction's should have stopped this morning or even better, yesterday, just to make sure. The thread was open long enough for everybody to have a chance to post their prediction's.

 

[saelz8]

Numbers come out today

 

[Zerostatic]

I'm ranked near the bottom of the list according to Patcher but I'm the 10th according to the Canada formula. Sounds like a formula for success to me!

 

[Kenka]

Oh my god. I'm pretty low. On BOTH lists

Anyway, numbers come out today ? Great news.

 

[Merovingian]

List of contestants, ranked supposing the Pachter numbers were the actuals...

Why were my numbers all fcked in the other non official ranking? And in this too? Is it because the ranking is based on the overall between all the systems, and i only predicted for 3 of them?

 

[Burai]

Some people take these numbers way too serious.

Screw you. Just because I named my kids NPD and Media Create doesn't mean I take these too seriously.

 

[Stop It]

Why were my numbers all fcked in the other non official ranking? And in this too? Is it because the ranking is based on the overall between all the systems, and i only predicted for 3 of them?

That is exactly why, for all of the consoles you haven't guessed, it adds the total (Either Pachters guesstimate or the Cad *10) of the console to your deviation, after all, it is run through a parser.

 

[_Alkaline_]

Screw you. Just because I named my kids NPD and Media Create doesn't mean I take these too seriously.

:lol

By the way Cheese can you please answer my question on page 8?