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Official October 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 4 p.m. EST on Friday, November 9th.

Now extended until Wednesday for this month only.

Format use is now required if you want your entry counted. We've had some problems with non-formatted posts accidentally overwriting the previous intended predictions, so we've now gone exclusively to using the parser format for prediction entries. As suggested, the thread is earlier this month than previously so as to allow more discussion of the predictions themselves.

Format:

[360]
[GBA]
[NDS]
[PS2]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Examples:

Code:
Good              Bad
[PS2] 123K        [PS2] 123.5K
[PS2] 123,000     [PS2] 123.000
[PS2] 123000      [PS2] - 123000
[PS2] 123456      [PS2] one-hundred and twenty-three thousand

The Official Software Prediction thread is here, but if you want to predict for games outside of that list, put them in quote tags or else they may be picked up as hardware predictions. Also, you can put comments on the same line spaced after the number for the hardware predictions.


NPD Release: November 15th @ 4:00 p.m. EST (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EST)
NPD Coverage: October 7 - November 3 (4 weeks, September was 5 weeks)


September 2007 Results (5-week month) - thanks to sonycowboy and NPD

sonycowboy said:
PlayStation 2 215K
PlayStation 3 119.4K
PlayStation Portable 284.5K
Xbox 360 527.8K
Wii 501K
Nintendo DS 495.8K
Game Boy Advance 75K
sonycowboy said:
360 HALO 3* MICROSOFT (CORP) 1 3.3 million
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA 2 282K
NDS LEGEND OF ZELDA: PHANTOM HOURGLASS NINTENDO OF AMERICA 3 224K
PS2 MADDEN NFL 08 ELECTRONIC ARTS 4 205K
360 SKATE ELECTRONIC ARTS 5 175K
360 MADDEN NFL 08 ELECTRONIC ARTS 6 173K
WII METROID PRIME 3: CORRUPTION NINTENDO OF AMERICA 7 167K
360 BIOSHOCK TAKE 2 INTERACTIVE (CORP) 8 150K
NDS BRAIN AGE 2: MORE TRAINING IN MINUTES A NINTENDO OF AMERICA 9 141K
PS3 HEAVENLY SWORD SONY (CORP) 10 139K
* - combined



Potentially significant releases from October 7 - November 3

360 - FIFA 08 (10/9), The Orange Box (10/9), Beautiful Katamari (10/15), Tony Hawk's Proving Ground (10/15), Oblivion: Shivering Isles (10/16), 360 Arcade Hardware (10/22), Ace Combat 6 (10/23), Guitar Hero III (10/28), The Simpsons Game (10/30), Virtua Fighter 5 Online (10/30)
NDS - FIFA 08 (10/9), Flash Focus: Vision Training (10/15), Tony Hawk's Proving Ground (10/15), EA Playground (10/22), Phoenix Wright 3 (10/23), The Simpsons Game (10/30)
PS2 - FIFA 08 (10/9), Guitar Hero III (10/28), The Simpsons Game (10/30), Manhunt 2 (10/30)
PS3 - FIFA 08 (10/9), Folklore (10/9), NBA 08 (10/12), Tony Hawk's Proving Ground (10/15), Oblivion (10/16), PS3 80GB Price Drop - $499 (10/18), Eye of Judgment (10/23), Ratchet & Clank Future (10/23), Guitar Hero III (10/28), Stranglehold (10/30), The Simpsons Game (10/30), PS3 40GB - $399 (11/2)
PSP - FIFA 08 (10/9), Final Fantasy Tactics (10/9), PSP Slim - Battlefront (10/9), SW Battlefront: RS (10/9), NBA 08 (10/12), Castlevania: Dracula X (10/23), The Simpsons Game (10/30), Manhunt 2 (10/30)
WII - FIFA 08 (10/9), Tony Hawk's Proving Ground (10/15), EA Playground (10/22), Zack & Wiki (10/23), Guitar Hero III (10/28), Battalion Wars II (10/30), The Simpsons Game (10/30), Manhunt 2 (10/30)
 

Thraktor

Member
Out of interest, does anyone do graphs for the US data like PantherLotus and others used to do in Media-Create threads? The NPD threads are too big for me to trawl through looking for one, but even a simple graph showing monthly console and handheld hardware sales over the past year would make trends much easier to pick out.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
I would add the holiday bundles to the 360 list of important releases, but it's tricky to gauge since there wasn't a hard launch like with the Arcade SKU; they just trickled out into market without much fanfare.

I'm really unsure on 360 and PS3 sales. How much did the $100 cut impact the 80 GB model? How far did 360 sales drop off, and did the Arcade/holiday bundles mitigate it any?

Tough month to call.
 
I forgot about the 80gig PS3 reduction still I reduced PS3 sales because it was a 4 week month and because Sony unwisely announced a $100 cheaper model a month a head of time

Edit! Did not know the figures will include 4 days of sales of the 40gig!
 
My hardware analysis said:
This month is all about software. Even though none of the games released was a system seller, the performance of several games will paint a good picture of how healthy a marketplace each console has. How will Ace Combat and Virtua Fighter fare on 360? How will Guitar Hero sell on Wii? How will Ratchet sell on PS3?

The only really interesting hardware number is the 360, to see how sharp the post-Halo drop was. There were also reports of the Premium and Elites selling out in a variety of places in the week after Halo-ton. I'd say anything under 250k would be a serious uh-oh, and anything over 350k would be very impressive. So I find my prediction somewhere in the middle.

The PS3 should have small sales spike due to the 80GB dropping in price, and the 4 days of 40GB release. However, speculation of the price drop and declining sales in general may offset. I don't see Ratchet really doing much of anything. Still I think 30k a week average is possible.

The Wii and DS are selling 100k a week, and I don't see anything changing that other than larger shipments from Nintendo.

I think this will be the first month when we look at PS2 sales and say "yeah, it's dying". I forsee a dip below 200k due to a big chunk of the Guitar Hero audience moving on, and Sony will have wished they dropped to $99 this Christmas.

I've given up trying to figure out the PSP.

[360] 325k
[GBA] 65k
[NDS] 410k
[PS2] 195k
[PS3] 120k
[PSP] 240k
[WII] 425k
 

donny2112

Member
Thraktor said:
Out of interest, does anyone do graphs for the US data like PantherLotus and others used to do in Media-Create threads? The NPD threads are too big for me to trawl through looking for one, but even a simple graph showing monthly console and handheld hardware sales over the past year would make trends much easier to pick out.

http://www.angelfire.com/planet/donny2112/

The main page is handhelds. The home consoles page is a link at the top.

mr_bishiuk said:
Edit! Did not know the figures will include 4 days of sales of the 40gig!

2 days.
 

Tideas

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
I would add the holiday bundles to the 360 list of important releases, but it's tricky to gauge since there wasn't a hard launch like with the Arcade SKU; they just trickled out into market without much fanfare.

I'm really unsure on 360 and PS3 sales. How much did the $100 cut impact the 80 GB model? How far did 360 sales drop off, and did the Arcade/holiday bundles mitigate it any?

Tough month to call.

considering there ws already a $500 PS3, not much. So I'm hoping no one is expecting the PS3 to pull anything above 130k with a $500 console
 

RBH

Member
[360] 350,000
[GBA] 70,000
[NDS] 435,000
[PS2] 185,000
[PS3] 101,000
[PSP] 250,000
[WII] 430,000
 

Laurent

Member
[360] 420K
[GBA] 70K
[NDS] 520K
[PS2] 200K
[PS3] 120K
[PSP] 200K
[Wii] 550K

Halo effect is still there, Brain Age effect is perhaps still there as well...

GBA at 40K?! NO WAY...
 

JJConrad

Sucks at viral marketing
This just feels wrong. The month hasn't even closed yet. I don't think we need 5 days to discuss the predictions ... by the third day it'll all turn to crap and/or get buried on page 10.


To demonstrate my protest I'm going to run out and buy 150,000 PS3s today just make you guys look dumb. Who will look foolish then, huh!?
 
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