Oscar Buzz: where are the movies?

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StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
At this point most of the early Oscar Buzz pics have fallen flat.

The Changeling looks like a bust based on early reviews

Nixon/Frost - a movie about post-watergate interviews with Nixon? Doesn't feel like a winner

Body of Lies - bust based on poor/mixed reviews

The Road - post apocalyptic Viggo Morteson movie - maybe this film is amazing, but Children of Men was fucking phenomenal and got overlooked. Post apocalyptic = ignored.

The Wrestler - I think this might actually be the big winner. Its got a good cast and is getting great early buzz.

Curious Case of Benjamin Button - I think this looks truly retarded, but a lot of people think it looks compelling. It seems like Mork and Mindy with less funny to me.

What else is out there that I am missing? I hate to add to the GAF hype train, but if ever there were a year the the Dark Knight might get a serious look this could be it. Seems like a weak year.
 
Milk is still coming. That's your big winner.

The Road isn't out until '09 now, so it's inelligible for the Oscars anyway.
 
The road got pushed back, so CCoBB & The Wrestler are the only films standing in The Dark Knight & Wall-E's way.
 
In Bruges
The Dark Knight
Burn After Reading
WALL·E
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cloverfield ?

(will probably get nominated for something, not necessarily for best picture)

We'll see. A good show and good nominees are all I care about. The actual winners, not so much.
 
Goldrusher said:
In Bruges
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Favorite 2008 film of mine thus far, but I haven't heard it mentioned really anywhere, not even during it's initial release. I only found out about it because a friend of mine told me to check it out on comcast, ordered it, loved it, but I don't know if it's the kind of film that is oscar bait.
 
I'd Dark Knight has good chances at getting some nominations because of Ledger and how weak the rest just is.

I can also already tell you that the German entry will be "Der Baader Meinhof Komplex" a movie about the RAF.
 
Goldrusher said:
In Bruges
The Dark Knight
Burn After Reading
WALL·E
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Cloverfield ?

(will probably get nominated for something, not necessarily for best picture)

We'll see. A good show and good nominees are all I care about. The actual winners, not so much.
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I like the movie but no way in hell for anything but AV.
 
I saw the stage production of Frost/Nixon a couple of weeks ago, I think personally it will be in the mix.

StoOgE said:
Curious Case of Benjamin Button - I think this looks truly retarded, but a lot of people think it looks compelling. It seems like Mork and Mindy with less funny to me.
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You shut your filthy whore mouth. Never doubt Fincher.
 
There is also Gran Torino which could be great. The academy loves Clint so I think they at least give him an actor nomination.

My predictions for the best picture nominees are

Gus Van Sant:Milk
Van Sant+Penn+Hirsch+Brolin=Lots of Oscars?? Might be too gay for the Academy though (like Brokeback Mountain).

David Fincher:The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Fincher has been overlooked by the Academy thus far. Maybe 2009 is his year.

Christopher Nolan:The Dark Knight
This is kind of a question mark. Would they nominate a superhero movie? Ledger is a lock for supporting actor though.

Baz Luhrmann:Australia
Pretty much made for the Oscars. Will get nominated if it doesn't completely suck.

The last place will propably go to Revolution Road, Doubt, The Wrestler or Nixon/Frost. Revolution Road is maybe even too Oscar baity. Doubt and Nixon/Frost could be considered too stagey. The Wrestler will propably get a nomination for Rourke but might be too indie for a best picture nomination.
 
Tirade said:
Has anyone seen Happy Go Lucky? I hope that wins Best Foreign, I loved it so much!
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huh? It's English, how can it go for foreign language? Leigh is always more made for Cannes and Berlin than Oscars in any case.
 
I think Charlie Kaufman's "Synecdoche, New York" will at least get a best screenplay nomination. The Academy seems to love most things he writes.
 
There is also Slumdog Millionaire which is a crowd pleaser and I really hope Let the Right One In breaks the genre barrier and gets some nominations in at least best foreign film and cinematography.
 
I'm hoping Dark Knights gets a nom for at least Heath. Aside from that, doubt it could win much anything major.

Aside from that, yeah I think this year is feeling lack of oscar movies. Maybe Felon will get some nom's.
 
Tim-E said:
I think Charlie Kaufman's "Synecdoche, New York" will at least get a best screenplay nomination. The Academy seems to love most things he writes.
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I hope not. It is one of the most terrible things I have ever seen.

The nominations (if I were going to guess them now):
Australia
The Dark Knight
The Wrestler
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
 
hiredhand said:
There is also Gran Torino which could be great. The academy loves Clint so I think they at least give him an actor nomination.
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I think Clint gets Noms for both Gran Torino(trailer here http://www.apple.com/trailers/wb/grantorino/ )
and Changeling..

Benjamin Button looks like the real winner though as long a Fincher comes through.
Pitt and Fincher should come out of it with something..

benjamin-button.jpg






also-

Milk
Australia
Frost/Nixon
Doubt
Seven Pounds
The Wrestler
Revolutionary Road
Valkyrie (doubt it from early previews but maybe?)


so hard to judge now though because people or critics haven't watched anything yet.
 
Tirade said:
Has anyone seen Happy Go Lucky? I hope that wins Best Foreign, I loved it so much!
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As much as I loved this, too, chances of it getting nominated in any category are extremely slim.

AlternativeUlster said:
I really hope Let the Right One In breaks the genre barrier and gets some nominations in at least best foreign film and cinematography.
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Sweden opted to submit Everlasting Moments as their candidate. I know the Academy has revised the foreign film category slightly, creating the option to nominate an additional film (or two?) from any country if they believe it deserves to be in the running, but Right One doesn't strike me as the sort of thing they'd go for.
 
I was so looking forward to The Road. John Hillcoat, Nick Cave, Cormac McCarthy? Where the fuck could it possibly go wrong?

But yeah, I agree with the basic premise of the thread, which is that this is a shitty year for Oscar contenders so far.
 
mr stroke said:
Benjamin Button looks like the real winner though as long a Fincher comes through.
Pitt and Fincher should come out of it with something..
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If Pitt and Fincher had some kind of history together, maybe.
 
miyamotofreak said:
I like the movie but no way in hell for anything but AV.
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It definitely deserves to be in the running for effects. The CGI was very impressive anyway, but to do it on a shaky cam with very little static reference was incredible.
 
You know what I'd love? If the Oscars actually started to become relevant again.

I'm not saying that popular movies are always the best, but it's almost as if a prerequisite for an Oscar nomination now is the question "Have too many people seen this movie?"
 
I'm really surprised to see only one mention of Wall-E. If ever an animated movie was going to crack the best picture nominations, it would be that one. So absolutely amazing.
 
wasn't blindness supposed to be a strong oscar contender as well? it ended up getting pretty bad reviews.
 
Freest Rolexes said:
I'm really surprised to see only one mention of Wall-E. If ever an animated movie was going to crack the best picture nominations, it would be that one. So absolutely amazing.
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It totally deserves best picture from what I've seen this year, but the Academy is so far up its own ass on animated movies that it'll be relegated to that diminutive "oh cute another pixar movie won its cute little animation award" category.

Certainly one of the best animated films ever made though. We're talking up there with fuckin' Bambi and Peter Pan and stuff.

P.S. As a casual Kaufman fan, I can see how you can go from liking a script he does to being pissed off by it. Malkovich constantly toed the line of "oh, this is clever" vs. "this is such masturbatory bullshit."
 
Cosmic Bus said:
Sweden opted to submit Everlasting Moments as their candidate. I know the Academy has revised the foreign film category slightly, creating the option to nominate an additional film (or two?) from any country if they believe it deserves to be in the running, but Right One doesn't strike me as the sort of thing they'd go for.
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Well that sucks. Ah well. When I walk into Magnolia demanding a job to work their Oscar campaign maybe I can change things.
 
bud said:
wasn't blindness supposed to be a strong oscar contender as well? it ended up getting pretty bad reviews.
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:lol for the first time I was going to quote you and noticed your special tag.

It was booed at Cannes which caused them to reedit the film. Did you know there was originally a Danny Glover voice over? The movie wasn't terrible by any means. I think it is alright but it feels like it is just something that is just there. Meh.
 
My thoughts:

Burn After Reading - have people seen this? If you have, you'll know that it will not get a single nomination. (Hint: I liked it but it is an Oscar film)

The Road: delayed until 09.

The Wrestler: saw it at TIFF. Phenomenal film. Best actor nom for Rourke.

JCVD, Slumdog: saw both at TIFF. Both awesome; maybe noms in Doc or Foreign.

Dark Knight: supporting actor nom and win for Ledger. That's all.

Changeling, Body of Lies, Synecdoche, Blindness: complete critic busts. no noms. (maybe screenplay for Kaufman)

Wall-E: best animated picture lock.

In Bruges: awesome but not oscar film. (plus too early in year)

Still to come:

Milk, Rev. Road, Benjamin Button, Australia, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Gran Torino




LOL @ Cloverfield. Some people are clueless.
 
Rachel getting married... think you guys forgot that one



soundtrack will batman win, also best supporting actor will go to the joker!!
 
robertsan21 said:
Rachel getting married... think you guys forgot that one



soundtrack will batman win, also best supporting actor will go to the joker!!
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Oh yeah, that should be a locked actress nomination.
 
Plinko said:
You know what I'd love? If the Oscars actually started to become relevant again.

I'm not saying that popular movies are always the best, but it's almost as if a prerequisite for an Oscar nomination now is the question "Have too many people seen this movie?"
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So you want them to nominate average blockbusters instead of smaller great films. What popular films from this year deserve a nomination(maybe besides Batman and Wall-E)? It is not the Academy's fault that nowadays only huge blockbusters can make money.
 
I honestly will never understand GAF's perpetual hard-on for all things Pixar. If Wall-E had ended about half-way through I may somehow understand where some of you pushing for best picture are coming from. As it stands the film quickly devolves space station onwards into a pretty forgettable romp outside the fantastic animation and designs.

AlternativeUlster said:
Loved them all. This film is just flat out annoying and you wanted to beat the shit out of Charlie Kaufman after he made it.
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Noted, as Aristotlekh alluded to personally I thought Malkovich was his weakest effort with it often erring on the side of a little too much for me. As I understand Synecdoche really goes for bust also, but I respect Kaufman's work to really give it a fair crack.
 
Plinko said:
You know what I'd love? If the Oscars actually started to become relevant again.

I'm not saying that popular movies are always the best, but it's almost as if a prerequisite for an Oscar nomination now is the question "Have too many people seen this movie?"
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What?
What was the last movie to win The Academy award that didn't break 100 mil?
If anything, too many shit blockbuster movies (which I will not name for the sake of not derailing this thread) have won best film in the past decade or so.
 
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