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[Facism]

That's ok, happy for console manufacturers to learn hard lessons.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Makes sense

Games cost way too much to make now resulting in AAA games now releasing less frequently.

 

[Smasher89]

yep 70 dollar and even more expensive in most places makes day 1 less likely, has already been a couple games ive been kinda interested in but when the pricetag is over 1 worknight for standard edition, it feels too expensive so wallet has already started the voting. That and sony as the other console makers putting online behind a paywall makes it just more likely to be bought on pc if anywere. That said if i knew the biggest sony titles would end up on pc like right now, i should just have skipped the ps5.

 

[DryvBy]

Only a tiny drop, probably due to games taking longer to make.

They wouldn't take so long if they didn't have to take their monthly time off for training on why everyone's racist, sexist, pigist, stinky, and how gamer's suck? It's a lot of work to push DEI in the workplace.

 

[neocycle]

It doesn't matter. The total investment goes up (more than double) and they put more into traditional games too.

 

[Sethbacca]

Honestly, as much as I love the big Sony over the shoulder third person narrative games that are the bread and butter of the console, they really need to diversify into some smaller less expensive game styles. People still love side scrollers, party games, and adventure games when they're produced with a focus on quality. I mean that's been Nintendo's bread and butter for literal decades. Not everything needs to have the multiple hundreds of millions of dollars and years of investment.

 

[poppabk]

Is it? Millions of people buy games at $70, heck, back in the SNES days they were more expensive than that if you take inflation into account (they were still $50-$60 back then)

And I'm not saying gamepass is bad for the consumer, it's great for them, it's bad for Microsoft/XBox, they are make nothing from it, especially as because the games are on gamepass the subs have to pay for the game development. Why do you think MS wants to put games on other platforms? It's the only way they can make money, MS is getting to the point where they can't just keep chucking money at XBox especially after spending billions buying publishers.

We really have no idea if gamepass is making money - I would assume it is close to breaking even at worst - depending on how you parse everything out. But putting games on more platforms will make more money. Do you think Sony putting their games on PC is the only way they can make money? Of course not, but it is a way to make more money.

 

[Esppiral]

Keep increasing the price of the games and you will sell even less....

 

[DeepEnigma]

If people can't afford their groceries or utilities, they're not buying full priced games.

 

[KXVXII9X]

Honestly, as much as I love the big Sony over the shoulder third person narrative games that are the bread and butter of the console, they really need to diversify into some smaller less expensive game styles. People still love side scrollers, party games, and adventure games when they're produced with a focus on quality. I mean that's been Nintendo's bread and butter for literal decades. Not everything needs to have the multiple hundreds of millions of dollars and years of investment.

And yet games like PoP: The Lost Crown sell abysmally and is justified by gamers as "no one wants Metroidvanias for $40." Or "Only Nintendo can make these games fully priced even though the quality is similar." Gamers constantly say this but make all sorts of excuses not to support said games. I would love for Sony to diversify too but that isn't happening. When they did have Japan Studios, those unique games didn't sell as much. You can have the most critically acclaimed games of all time, but if they don't sell, companies have no incentive to make them.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

Yeah. Predictions are nice.

 

[Sanepar]

$70 games will bite them back, it is a full circle.

Those that can afford to buy multiple $70 games carefree, will not have the time to play them.

Gamepass is better, to pay 2x$70 a year and get to sample all kind of games.

Can u show me how can I try any of the top20 from 2023 and 2024 on gamepass please?

Best Games of 2024

Browse the top rated games of 2024. The top critics in gaming. All in one place.

opencritic.com

Best Games of 2023

Browse the top rated games of 2023. The top critics in gaming. All in one place.

opencritic.com

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

You didn't but you made it seem like the 15B to 7.4B collapse of digital game sales is OK because it doesn't include physical

No, I didn't. I only said that physical wasn't included implying it wasn't a complete picture.

but if physical was included in both then the 50% collapse would be an even worse percentage.

How so? If physical dropped by the same percentage as digital, it will still be the same result.

I get that but it's clear that there is going to be less spend on full game releases if sales are shrinking by 50%.

Or, that there are less full game releases by publishers in 2026. 3rd Party pubs themselves are putting more and more emphasis on GaaS and FTP, so it's reasonable to assume they'll make less full priced non-GaaS, non-FTP games.

 

[Three]

How so? If physical dropped by the same percentage as digital, it will still be the same result.

The split between digital and physical is rising in digitals favour more and more so this isn't the case.

Or, that there are less full game releases by publishers in 2026. 3rd Party pubs themselves are putting more and more emphasis on GaaS and FTP, so it's reasonable to assume they'll make less full priced non-GaaS, non-FTP games.

Yeah, that's the point. Mtx and subs is more likely to lead to GaaS/live service type games. That's what is concerning for this industry decline in full price games to me.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

The split between digital and physical is rising in digitals favour more and more so this isn't the case.

Sure, but it also depends on the reason for the drop in digital. If the prognosis is that gamers have less money from inflation and thus are waiting to buy digital games at discount after launch, then the existence of the pre-owned market for physical would see a disproportionate drop in digital full game sales versus physical.

Meanwhile I don't think the physical to digital shift will see a 50% reduction in only two years. So, it's easy to envisage a way that including physical could see a less than 50% drop overall.

Yeah, that's the point. Mtx and subs is more likely to lead to GaaS/live service type games. That's what is concerning for this industry decline in full price games to me.

Right, but that's more of an indication of the industry changing, rather than an indication of the industry struggling as you put it earlier.

 

[mayham2199]

Yeah, that's the point. Mtx and subs is more likely to lead to GaaS/live service type games. That's what is concerning for this industry decline in full price games to me.

Eh I don't even see a reason to be concerned. There are so many SP games out there I can't possibly keep up. If companies want to try something new let them. Either they will succeed or they will fail. There's nothing to be concerned with here. In fact my concern is that there are so many damn games coming out that even good games are going to get passed up with all the content out there.

 

[Three]

Sure, but it also depends on the reason for the drop in digital. If the prognosis is that gamers have less money from inflation and thus are waiting to buy digital games at discount after launch, then the existence of the pre-owned market for physical would see a disproportionate drop in digital full game sales versus physical.

I don't follow, how would pre-owned change the financials here? They wouldn't. If there is a decline in digital the decline in physical is greater if the digital vs physical split is increasing. Thus making the percentage drop greater than 50%.

Right, but that's more of an indication of the industry changing, rather than an indication of the industry struggling as you put it earlier.

That's true, fair enough.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

That was the prediction for CY26 before.
Now it's a predicted 50% drop in the games market. From $15b to $7.4b. The games industry is struggling and weirdly people are oblivious or cheering it on.

The games industry isn't struggling. The full priced game is struggling.

 

[rm082e]

With more people going digital, it's a lot easier to just check the your wish list a couple times a week to see if any are on sale. I suspect a lot more people are buying games at a discount than they used to. Buying a game at launch is literally the worst experience you're going to have with the game due to bugs and lack of content. Outside of Nintendo and people who want to play a multiplayer game with friends at launch, players have every reason to wait a few weeks to a few months to pick up a game.

 

[DeepEnigma]

The games industry isn't struggling. The full priced game is struggling.

 

[twilo99]

Demand will continue to fall as millennial gamers fade away and gen Z takes over .. it’s pretty obvious

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

I don't follow, how would pre-owned change the financials here? They wouldn't. If there is a decline in digital the decline in physical is greater if the digital vs physical split is increasing. Thus making the percentage drop greater than 50%.

What is the reason for the drop in digital?

If it's game pricing being too high at launch, then with digital gamers can only wait for a price decrease, whereas with physical more cost-conscious gamers can buy pre-owned, meaning the impact on game sales of the increase in more cost-conscious gamers is disproportionately lower for physical than digital.

 

[twilo99]

The games industry isn't struggling. The full priced game is struggling.

How are those two not directly related?

 

[Topher]

Meanwhile, PlayStation growth in Digital/Physical software has increased $1 billion from FY 22 to FY 23.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

How are those two not directly related?

GAAS is overcoming the full priced game collapse.

 

[Physiognomonics]

They themselves killed the full priced game market. They were too greedy. It worked well when games were costing $60 / €60 with fun games. And plenty others are still succeeding in this market.

Problem is they don't know how to do games like they were doing it on PS3 and PS4. They want a simple way, streamlined way, to make billions on games without risks. That's not possible.

And that's also a clever way to explain why their 1st party games are selling less and less. "we sell less because the market". BS. You sell less because you are doing shit products people don't want to play.

 

[Three]

What is the reason for the drop in digital?

If it's game pricing being too high at launch, then with digital gamers can only wait for a price decrease, whereas with physical more cost-conscious gamers can buy pre-owned, meaning the impact on game sales of the increase in more cost-conscious gamers is disproportionately lower for physical than digital.

This doesn't make sense still. If they buy preowned then that would still be a collapse of physical sales on Sony's books. I don't get what you're saying.

 

[twilo99]

GAAS is overcoming the full priced game collapse.

Those are great cash cows when they hit, but the hit rate seems to be extremely low so I’m not sure how that will balance out, but yes, I guess it’s helping

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

With more people going digital, it's a lot easier to just check the your wish list a couple times a week to see if any are on sale. I suspect a lot more people are buying games at a discount than they used to. Buying a game at launch is literally the worst experience you're going to have with the game due to bugs and lack of content. Outside of Nintendo and people who want to play a multiplayer game with friends at launch, players have every reason to wait a few weeks to a few months to pick up a game.

The wishlist is embraced by platform holders because it leads to increased spend. They wouldn't include it if gamers were using it to spend less.

 

[KevinK15]

I have a backlog. So when I see a game come out that I want, I wait for a sale since I know I can't get to it right away. Also, games go on sale quickly now. I also love sport games and could never justify full price when they get cut in half within a month.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Well, maybe if you could let all your signature studios keep releasing games in a reasonable pace, there wouldn't be any shrink.

I'm sure they explored this option. Remember, nobody wants to change. They didn't do this because they didn't want to get pancaked in the market by peers who spent more time and resources on competing games.

 

[midnightAI]

We really have no idea if gamepass is making money - I would assume it is close to breaking even at worst - depending on how you parse everything out. But putting games on more platforms will make more money. Do you think Sony putting their games on PC is the only way they can make money? Of course not, but it is a way to make more money.

The difference between MS and Sony in this regard is that for MS I think its a necessity, probably coming from higher ups, to actually make some money from their games, especially after spending 80 billion on publishers, they need to see a return on investment, whereas for Sony its more a case of extra money + hopefully even persuading some PC gamers into getting a PS5 to get the games earlier, but do they have to do it? probably not (my perception of that would change if suddenly new, first party, non-GaaS games started coming regularly day one)

We know it costs Xbox 1 billion a year to get third party games on Gamepass every year, their own internally developed games will be way more than than that and then you have to pay for all the other services/servers tied in with Gamepass (I know MS has their own servers but they wont be free), so I would assume its losing money.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

This doesn't make sense still. If they buy preowned then that would still be a collapse of physical sales on Sony's books. I don't get what you're saying.

Preowned leads to higher net sales overall.

Someone had to buy that preowned copy in the first place. And non-cost-conscious gamers will buy more full priced games at launch when they can exchange trade-in value of their existing games to discount buying the next big new game.

The pre-owned market drives higher net sales of games in aggregate.

 

[diffusionx]

Maybe stop releasing junk people don't want to play and expending huge resources on unnecessary remasters.

 

[Bojji]

To go from $20b to $17b....

OMG the sky is falling! Pack it up folks, no more FP SP games from Sony anymore....

/s

Inflation included?

Some folks include it in reasons for Pro price increase so...

If people can't afford their groceries or utilities, they're not buying full priced games.

Or 700$ game console.

GAAS is overcoming the full priced game collapse.

So far Gaas is leaking money from many companies. Only few GaaS games are successful and there were dozens of games that tried...

 

[SmokedMeat]

Yes, increasing game development costs and development time means fewer releases. Fewer releases means less sales.

Publishers need to start making AA games.

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

This a good thing. Too many brokies have invaded my safe space.

 

[Bojji]

Yes, increasing game development costs and development time means fewer releases. Fewer releases means less sales.

Publishers need to start making AA games.

Yep, AA games are the best. Make them on UE5 so they will look ok and cost of making will be lower. Don't pump money in fucking GaaS bullshit...

 

[Three]

Preowned leads to higher net sales overall.

Someone had to buy that preowned copy in the first place. And non-cost-conscious gamers will buy more full priced games at launch when they can exchange trade-in value of their existing games to discount buying the next big new game.

The pre-owned market drives higher net sales of games in aggregate.

But this makes no sense unless you think the trend of physical vs digital will change in favour of physical (due to preowned boosting new physical sales?).

Their aggregate will change even worse. If x and y are both declining and if a decline in x occurs while y/x is decreasing then the sum of x+y would be decreasing worse than the decline in just x.

 

[rm082e]

The wishlist is embraced by platform holders because it leads to increased spend. They wouldn't include it if gamers were using it to spend less.

Sure, but that's not my point - The number of units sold at $70 is probably lower now that the platform holders have made it easier to buy games on sale. Discounts lead players to spend more overall because they feel like they're getting great deals, but the publisher looking at the number of units moved at full price is still seeing a smaller percentage of their total sales than they used to.

We've known this for many years. There were indi devs talking about how Steam sales would see their units sold go 10x or more just by dropping the price 25%.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Or 700$ game console.

Or a $1500+ graphics card.

Good thing there are still options and waiting for sales. FOMO needs to die, for backlog's sake.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

So far Gaas is leaking money from many companies. Only few GaaS games are successful and there were dozens of games that tried...

Games as the platform is where we're headed. How many plastic platforms did the market support over the previous 40 years?

 

[Bojji]

Games as the platform is where we're headed. How many plastic platforms did the market support over the previous 40 years?

Many tried in 80s and 90s but since that we had stable MS, Sony and Nintendo stream of platforms until now. Only new failed launches are from something like Google stadia or ouya?

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

“Considerably”? Seems like such an odd choice of words, given it looks more like they expect sales to remain near-flat in that category. It’s more about the growth they *project* (not the same as actually happening) in GaaS/ live service games.

And you could argue because Sony releases so few major single-player games nowadays, 45% of the revenue share is awfully confident.

But they would know more about their internal pipeline of unannounced games than we do.

After Concord, personally I wouldn’t be quite so bullish on GaaS growth over at PlayStation. But that’s just me.

After all, nobody, particular over at PlayStation, had any idea Helldivers II would be so huge. They didn’t plan for it at all and the success still happened, all the same.

 

[Pasta la Vista]

Since game prices have raised to $70 I rarely buy games at release anymore. Last one I bought at that price was Stellar Blade.
Its so much easier to just wait for deep sales now especially since you will get a better, more complete game the longer you wait.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

Since game prices have raised to $70 I rarely buy games at release anymore. Last one I bought at that price was Stellar Blade.
Its so much easier to just wait for deep sales now especially since you will get a better, more complete game the longer you wait.

This logic sort of amuses me, if it’s to be taken literally. So $60 is fine, but $70 for a (what is sometimes) a 100-200 hour game that took 6 years to make instead of 3, or 4, and just thinks to themself “omg that’s so unreasonable”, as the consumer swings by Starbucks on their way home for a $7 beverage. I don’t get the outrage. And I doubt it’s anywhere near the level that someone on enthusiast gaming forums make it out to be.

Sure, people are becoming more selective about which big game to drop $70 on. Absolutely. If that’s the point, then sure there’s definitely truth to that.

Anecdotally, ToTK has sold over 20 million copies without any sales at all, basically every one at $70, and that didn’t seem to slow it down at all. Sure, maybe that was a special case. Maybe people were starved for 3D Zelda. Or maybe the brand has become so massive that $70 didn’t make a material difference in sales, at all.

Would love to see any of Nintendo’s internal marketing research on that. Would be fascinating.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Sure, but that's not my point - The number of units sold at $70 is probably lower now that the platform holders have made it easier to buy games on sale. Discounts lead players to spend more overall because they feel like they're getting great deals, but the publisher looking at the number of units moved at full price is still seeing a smaller percentage of their total sales than they used to.

I assume "full priced game market" includes games on sale.

Many tried in 80s and 90s but since that we had stable MS, Sony and Nintendo stream of platforms until now. Only new failed launches are from something like Google stadia or ouya?

No. Games are the platform, not launchers, not plastic boxes.

Minecraft, Fortnite, Roblox...Star Citizen. These are the new platforms of the future.

 

[Bojji]

No. Games are the platform, not launchers, not plastic boxes.

Minecraft, Fortnite, Roblox...Star Citizen. These are the platforms new platforms of the future.

Future is dead then.

Gen z and gen alpha are playing free garbage, that's what will destroy gaming in the long run.

 

[PatientGamer]

I'm worried about the fact they'll be spending 60% on GAAS trash. Who exactly is their target market to do a complete 180 from their bread and butter? 16-24 year old, Gen Zs with lots of time on their hands?

 

[RCU005]

Don’t let them fool you! It’s not that the market for full priced, single player games will shrink because of the consumers, it’s because they want to. It will shrink because they will no longer offer such products.

If it was up to them, they’d be making 100% live service games.

This industry is heading to the trash