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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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T

thefro

Member
I really can't see any way that Obama doesn't end up with a lead in Gallup in another few days with that 51% approve/45% disapprove number up there. I think that's the lowest his disapproval has been in a long time.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
The good news about the national polls is that as many are showing movement to Obama as are showing movement to Romney, maybe more, and all before last night's debate. So no Romney momentum.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Obama has been collapsing with white voters all month...

Gallup is showing a complete implosion in the south. That includes Florida and NC, plus Virginia. Barring an explosion in Hispanic and youth voting I don't see Obama winning any of those states. Which means it's all about Ohio, and NH to a degree
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Obama has been collapsing with white voters all month...

Gallup is showing a complete implosion in the south. That includes Florida and NC, plus Virginia. Barring an explosion in Hispanic and youth voting I don't see Obama winning any of those states. Which means it's all about Ohio, and NH to a degree
Click to expand...

You are drawing inappropriate inferences from gallup sampling.
 
G

gcubed

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Obama has been collapsing with white voters all month...

Gallup is showing a complete implosion in the south. That includes Florida and NC, plus Virginia. Barring an explosion in Hispanic and youth voting I don't see Obama winning any of those states. Which means it's all about Ohio, and NH to a degree
Click to expand...

why would you take anything from a national poll and try to extrapolate that to a state's results when you have a large amount of state polls you can use?

Were you being too sensible recently?
 
F

Forever

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Obama has been collapsing with white voters all month...

Gallup is showing a complete implosion in the south. That includes Florida and NC, plus Virginia. Barring an explosion in Hispanic and youth voting I don't see Obama winning any of those states. Which means it's all about Ohio, and NH to a degree
Click to expand...

Virginia isn't totally south anymore, it's a battleground between the Northeast and the Old Confederacy.

Florida has not been "south" in culture in a long time.
 
M

markatisu

Member
gcubed said:
why would you take anything from a national poll and try to extrapolate that to a state's results when you have a large amount of state polls you can use?

Were you being too sensible recently?
Click to expand...

He needs something to do for the next few weeks, its hard to keep up the facade

If Obama has lot the White vote explain Iowa, we are one of the whitest states in the nation lol
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Forever said:
Virginia isn't totally south anymore, it's a battleground between the Northeast and the Old Confederacy.

Florida has not been "south" in culture in a long time.
Click to expand...
Or, as Palin famously put it: "Real Virginia" versus "Fake Virginia."

She was such a great help that year..
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...2012_n_2005850.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003

WASHINGTON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - President Barack Obama pulled slightly ahead of Republican Mitt Romney in a Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll on Tuesday, but the race remained essentially tied with two weeks to go until the Nov. 6 election.

Obama led Romney among likely voters by a statistically insignificant margin of 1 percentage point, 47 percent to 46 percent. The four-day online tracking poll includes some responses taken after the two candidates' final televised debate, but the full impact will not register for several days.

Obama maintains a larger advantage in the state-by-state battle that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects that Obama holds an edge in the most hotly contested states, including Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and is likely to win by a relatively comfortable margin of 322 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes.

The poll has reflected a tight race since shortly after the two candidates met for their first debate on Oct. 3. But a substantial portion of voters remain up for grabs. Roughly 20 percent of those surveyed say they could switch their votes or have not yet made up their minds.

Among the larger pool of registered voters, Obama leads Romney 46 percent to 42 percent.

The accuracy of Reuters/Ipsos online polls are measured using a credibility interval. The survey of 1,030 likely voters has a credibility interval of 3.5 percentage points.
Click to expand...

Hopium!
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Got a question about this:
Clevinger said:
Approval among all adults, not LV or RV. Doesn't mean anything if people don't bother to vote.
Click to expand...
What is the distinction between "all adults" and RV and LV? Like, does Gallup call people who are registered to vote and who are likely to vote, then specifically tries to call up people who aren't going to vote but asks them how they think Obama is doing as president?

I don't think it's an overstatement to say that tracking polls are the worst thing to happen in modern polling history.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Bowdz said:
If Obama wins Florida, I will be one happy panda on election day. It will make the night much less stressful.
Click to expand...

I see no way he wins Florida, but it would be amazing.
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Dax01 said:
Got a question about this:

What is the distinction between "all adults" and RV and LV? Like, does Gallup call people who are registered to vote and who are likely to vote, then specifically tries to call up people who aren't going to vote but asks them how they think Obama is doing as president?

I don't think it's an overstatement to say that tracking polls are the worst thing to happen in modern polling history.
Click to expand...

It's probably:
1) Are you a registered voter?
2) Do you approve of the President?
3, 4, 5, etc.) ...
 
F

Forever

Banned
Losing whites in the Deep South where he was never going to win anyway is not really a problem.

In the Midwest, where the election is likely to be decided, race is much less of an issue. In Iowa for example Obama was probably the first black person many of those people had ever seen (exaggeration but not far off). Racial tensions are not an issue there, though abortion and religious stuff might be.
 
C

Clevinger

Member
Dax01 said:
Got a question about this:

What is the distinction between "all adults" and RV and LV? Like, does Gallup call people who are registered to vote and who are likely to vote, then specifically tries to call up people who aren't going to vote but asks them how they think Obama is doing as president?

I don't think it's an overstatement to say that tracking polls are the worst thing to happen in modern polling history.
Click to expand...

All adults:

"How old are you?"

RV

"How old are you? Are you registered to vote?"

LV

"How old are you? Are you registered to vote? Are you planning to vote?"

The calls would end if they weren't old enough (all adults), weren't registered (RV), or weren't planning to vote (LV).
 
T

TiVo

Member
28858899.jpg
 
W

witness

Member
Bowdz said:
If Obama wins Florida, I will be one happy panda on election day. It will make the night much less stressful.
Click to expand...

If he wins this shitty state again, then this place would be totally redeemed for me. If he gets Florida then he just needs to win any other battleground. After voting in horrible senators and governors recently, fuck you Rubio and Rick Scott, its time to redeem yourselves Florida.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Forever said:
In the Midwest, where the election is likely to be decided, race is much less of an issue. In Iowa for example Obama was probably the first black person many of those people had ever seen (exaggeration but not far off). Racial tensions are not an issue there, though abortion and religious stuff might be.
Click to expand...

Well we have not repealed Gay marriage in Iowa yet so religion is not THAT big an issue ;)

But yes anyone that says MN, WI, IA, OH are not heavily/majority white lives in an alternate universe
 
H

Hobbestetrician

Member
CaptainSchwann said:
So according to RCP Minnesota is a battleground state now?
Click to expand...

They still have Pennsylvania and Michigan listed as toss-ups right now so I think we can safely ignore their map. I thought they were just an aggregating site but slowly started to see their right slant with the videos/articles they posted and how they decided toss-ups.
 
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