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[ClovingWestbrook]

Ask not what your poll can do for you. Ask what you can do for your poll.

I did not have sexual relations with that poll, Unskewedpolls.com...

 

[eBay Huckster]

Rasmussen polls not looking good

And this increasingly means about as much as Zogby polls not looking good

 

[polyh3dron]

Rasmussen polls not looking good, Romney has reached 50 percent. He clearly did continue to have momentum even after the second debate. Thank god for last night, Obama just needs to tie him in national voting on election night.

dude, it's rasmussen.

 

[pigeon]

Rasmussen polls not looking good, Romney has reached 50 percent. He clearly did continue to have momentum even after the second debate. Thank god for last night, Obama just needs to tie him in national voting on election night.

Just gonna use POP-GAF gifs to reply to posts of this nature from now on.

 

[RDreamer]

What confuses me about both Ras and Gallup is that their approval numbers show one thing and their voting choice numbers show something else entirely.

Likely voter models are probably funky

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Likely voter models are probably funky

I may be wrong but I think Ras actually uses the LV model for their approval ratings.

 

[GaimeGuy]

Just received a call from the obama campaign asking me to volunteer for their Get Out The Vote initiative and spend a few hours driving people to and from the polls on election day (I'm in Eagan, Minnesota).

 

[Cloudy]

Charlie Cook keeps going back to just how damn difficult it'll be for Romney to get close to 270. Of course, this is going to be ignored by most other TV personalities..

Why would they pay attention to this? They are actively trying to pull him over the finish line. I guess they are bored with Obama lol

 

[eBay Huckster]

t-minus 20 minutes until PANIC HOUR part too goddamn many

 

[polyh3dron]

lol popGAF is invading all the threads

i am sooo excite

 

[B-Dubs]

Ask not what your poll can do for you. Ask what you can do for your poll.

No no no no no, this lane is NOT for polling!

 

[HylianTom]

And more hopium..

http://votamatic.org/into-the-home-stretch/

Into the Home Stretch
(Drew Linzer, Emory Univ.)

With the debates complete, and just two weeks left in the campaign, there’s enough state-level polling to know pretty clearly where the candidates currently stand. If the polls are right, Obama is solidly ahead in 18 states (and DC), totaling 237 electoral votes. Romney is ahead in 23 states, worth 191 electoral votes. Among the remaining battleground states, Romney leads in North Carolina (15 EV); Obama leads in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin (44 EV); and Florida, Virginia, and Colorado (51 EV) are essentially tied. Even if Romney takes all of these tossups, Obama would still win the election, 281-257.

The reality in the states – regardless of how close the national polls may make the election seem – is that Obama is in the lead. At the Huffington Post, Simon Jackman notes “Obama’s Electoral College count lies almost entirely to the right of 270.” Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium recently put the election odds “at about nine to one for Obama.” The DeSart and Holbrook election forecast, which also looks at the current polls, places Obama’s re-election probability at over 85%. Romney would need to move opinion by another 1%-2% to win – but voter preferences have been very stable for the past two weeks. And if 1%-2% doesn’t seem like much, consider that Romney’s huge surge following the first debate was 2%, at most.

From this perspective, it’s a bit odd to see commentary out there suggesting that Romney should be favored, or that quantitative, poll-based analyses showing Obama ahead are somehow flawed, or biased, or not to be believed. It’s especially amusing to see the target of this criticism be the New York Times’ Nate Silver, whose FiveThirtyEight blog has been, if anything, unusually generous to Romney’s chances all along. Right now, his model gives Romney as much as a 30% probability of winning, even if the election were held today. Nevertheless, The Daily Caller, Commentary Magazine, and especially the National Review Online have all run articles lately accusing Silver of being in the tank for the president. Of all the possible objections to Silver’s modeling approach, this certainly isn’t one that comes to my mind. I can only hope those guys don’t stumble across my little corner of the Internet.

I do love the incredible gap between mathematical reality and.. how things are being reported. And yet, we're going to see hordes of people shocked on Election Night when Obama takes it. Shocked, I tell you.

 

[brianmcdoogle]

Likely voter models are probably funky

how'd you get so funky?
funky poll
did ya do the monkey?

 

[PhoenixDark]

And this increasingly means about as much as Zogby polls not looking good

Ras was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2008. Enough of the nonsense

Obama isn't touching 50% even in the tracking polls he's leading. That's a problem. I think we have to wait and see how the race changes based on the debate - if at all - but it makes no sense to dismiss a poll for literally no reason. Ras' numbers tend to wind up correct in late October, and we're almost to that point.

We can't rely on one poll, and aggregates matter more etc etc...but still, it's a rather puzzling and troubling turn of events. And it's pretty much been happening for almost a month

 

[GaimeGuy]

Complain if you must, but that's a great headline for Obama. It makes it a foregone conclusion that he spanked Romney hard. If the only "issue" is one of politeness, is also works against the "apology" meme.

Seriously, however they meant it, great headline.

I hate the "lol angry black man" vibe of the criticism though.

 

[HylianTom]

I'm still seeing a good chance for a split. Mua-ha-ha..!

 

[pigeon]

Ras was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2008. Enough of the nonsense

Being accurate is utterly meaningless if you massage the data. Using their methodology, PoliGAF could put out a poll right now that would be one of the most accurate polls of 2012 because WE READ FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.

 

[Clevinger]

We can't rely on one poll, and aggregates matter more etc etc...but still, it's a rather puzzling and troubling turn of events. And it's pretty much been happening for almost a month

Maybe all that SuperPAC money is finally starting to show results.

I can't remember where I read it, but I there was some study that said attack ads work best two weeks from the election, otherwise voters just forget about them. So maybe Rove and co are going all out right now.

 

[apana]

According to Yahoo News a Romney-Biden administration is possible. I never knew about these rules until now, don't read the yahoo comments.

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-biden-administration-could-happen-223736689--abc-news-politics.html

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Anyone see that Rasmussen poll out of MN? Only O+5, perhaps Romney should make a move there.

 

[LegendofJoe]

Why the hell isn't it a federal holiday?

Good question. Another one I have is why in the name of democracy and good leadership are both gerrymandering and partisan election boards considered acceptable?

 

[codhand]

We hold these polls to be self-evident.

 

[speculawyer]

Anyone see that Rasmussen poll out of MN? Only O+5, perhaps Romney should make a move there.

Oh I hope he does. Waste your time there. Please.

 

[gcubed]

Ras was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2008. Enough of the nonsense

Obama isn't touching 50% even in the tracking polls he's leading. That's a problem. I think we have to wait and see how the race changes based on the debate - if at all - but it makes no sense to dismiss a poll for literally no reason. Ras' numbers tend to wind up correct in late October, and we're almost to that point.

We can't rely on one poll, and aggregates matter more etc etc...but still, it's a rather puzzling and troubling turn of events. And it's pretty much been happening for almost a month

if you solely go by the last poll before the GE, yes, they were up there. Thats a pretty precarious definition to start from though. Thats not counting how horrific they were in 2010

 

[Clevinger]

According to Yahoo News a Romney-Biden administration is possible. I never knew about these rules until now, don't read the yahoo comments.

http://news.yahoo.com/romney-biden-administration-could-happen-223736689--abc-news-politics.html

I could live with that. Paul Ryan getting screwed over is a pretty decent deal despite losing.

 

[B-Dubs]

Good question. Another one I have is why in the name of democracy and good leadership are both gerrymandering and partisan election boards considered acceptable?

Because fuck people that's why.

 

[Y2Kev]

Oh I hope he does. Waste your time there. Please.

Just more evidence of the Obama campaign falling apart.

 

[Downhome]

I could live with that. Paul Ryan getting screwed over is a pretty decent deal despite losing.

It is a million times better than Obama/Ryan.

Forget about reality for a moment, and just imagine the fun we could have watching that sort of thing play out. Comedians would have a ton of stuff to pull from. Imagine all the behinds the scenes stories.

Biden could step down after a couple years and then announce he is running for President vs. Romney.

Seriously though, I could see a lot getting done with Romney/Biden. I think they would be much more willing to work together and compromise.

 

[PoweredBySoy]

Just received a call from the obama campaign asking me to volunteer for their Get Out The Vote initiative and spend a few hours driving people to and from the polls on election day (I'm in Eagan, Minnesota).

I'm in St Louis Park. Come pick me up.

 

[Chichikov]

Why the hell isn't it a federal holiday?

So we don't have too many poor people voting.

Try to think when was the last time either candidate mentioned the poor and you can see it's working.

 

[norinrad]

Anyone know what would become of lying Ryan if his buddy Mitt misses the boat without cheating?

 

[Sirpopopop]

It is a million times better than Obama/Ryan.

I could see a lot getting done with Romney/Biden. I think they would be much more willing to work together and compromise.

The Republican plan is to do the following;

- Repeal Obamacare.
- Cut taxes.
- Increase military spending.
- Grant block Medicaid.
- Turn Medicare into a voucher system.

Biden will not agree to any of that. There is no reason for him to compromise one inch on any of that.

 

[Clevinger]

Anyone know what would become of lying Ryan if his buddy Mitt misses the boat without cheating?

You mean if Romney loses? He'd hopefully lose a bunch of influence, he'd hopefully stop being the GOP's budget messiah, and it will likely effectively end his presidential aspirations.

 

[PhoenixDark]

if you solely go by the last poll before the GE, yes, they were up there. Thats a pretty precarious definition to start from though. Thats not counting how horrific they were in 2010

Gallup was off too in 2010, as were many. Few predicted that wave correctly.

It's not just Ras' final poll iirc, their average is also very accurate. Silver doesn't throw Ras polls out, why should we. If Obama doesn't gain some ground and reverse Romney's "momentum" this thing just may be over.

If not...well, we'll be hearing a lot about voter fraud

 

[Chichikov]

Anyone know what would become of lying Ryan if his buddy Mitt misses the boat without cheating?

Romney said he's retiring from politics, and I think he has to, he won't be getting the nomination again and I'm not sure what other office he can run to.
Ryan would go back to be yet another Republican congressman.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

Why the hell isn't it a federal holiday?

Because if it's a holiday, I'm going to do something fun on my day off, not stick around home just so I can stand in some line.

Of course we've had this discussion before, and somehow my idea that voting places should be run efficiently enough that people shouldn't have to spend more than 15-20 minutes voting was determined to be crazy.

 

[pigeon]

Gallup was off too in 2010, as were many. Few predicted that wave correctly.

It's not just Ras' final poll iirc, their average is also very accurate. Silver doesn't throw Ras polls out, why should we. If Obama doesn't gain some ground and reverse Romney's "momentum" this thing just may be over.

If not...well, we'll be hearing a lot about voter fraud

 

[gcubed]

Gallup was off too in 2010, as were many. Few predicted that wave correctly.

It's not just Ras' final poll iirc, their average is also very accurate. Silver doesn't throw Ras polls out, why should we. If Obama doesn't gain some ground and reverse Romney's "momentum" this thing just may be over.

If not...well, we'll be hearing a lot about voter fraud

i dont think anyone here is throwing it out. Nate adjusts the lean out of it though.

 

[Clevinger]

i dont think anyone here is throwing it out. Nate adjusts the lean out of it though.

Isn't the lean only like 1.5 points or something?

 

[The Librarian]

Because if it's a holiday, I'm going to do something fun on my day off, not stick around home just so I can stand in some line.

Of course we've had this discussion before, and somehow my idea that voting places should be run efficiently enough that people shouldn't have to spend more than 15-20 minutes voting was determined to be crazy.

Ah, yes, just make polling stations more efficient.

*bam!*

Holy efficiency!

 

[Fenderputty]

Because if it's a holiday, I'm going to do something fun on my day off, not stick around home just so I can stand in some line.

Of course we've had this discussion before, and somehow my idea that voting places should be run efficiently enough that people shouldn't have to spend more than 15-20 minutes voting was determined to be crazy.

IIRC that's because you coupled the above reasonable position with the unreasonable agreement that voter ID laws should be upheld and don’t negatively impact any one group more than the other.

I doubt anyone thinks streamlining the process and making it easier to vote is a bad thing.

 

[syllogism]

Rasmussen has Obama up in Wisconsin and Ohio so I don't see why you would focus on his national numbers

 

[Cloudy]

Gallup slow to update. Bad news for Obama?

 

[The Librarian]

Rasmussen has Obama up in Wisconsin and Ohio so I don't see why you would focus on his national numbers

Recently or aggregates?

 

[apana]

I don't really think voter fraud will be a big talking point in response to an Obama win. Voter fraud is a more general issue that Republicans will continue talking about regardless of what happens. Also if President Obama wins through the electoral college then it would be especially sweet to see Republicans complaining about that type of voting system and asking to move to the popular vote. It would make things even easier for Democrats.

 

[TiVo]

I'm all for joining Lindsey Graham's twitter and telling him to eat crow election night.
Who's with me?

 

[Effect]

Is there any group doing a post-debate poll just to see what the change is? Either today or tomorrow?

 

[mckmas8808]

I still think NC is very underrated for Obama.

NC this year will probably be Obama's Indiana of 2008. Most people didn't see it coming and he won it close.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

I hate the "lol angry black man" vibe of the criticism though.

Other than those who are already voting against, I think Angry Obama is a welcome sight for most.

 

[HylianTom]

I'm all for joining Lindsey Graham's twitter and telling him to eat crow election night.
Who's with me?

Honestly, I'd rather tell Lindsey to eat something else. But yeah, I'd be down for that.