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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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O

Officerrob

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=EJR

Obama is clearly ahead in Ohio but I don't believe the race is over there. All Romney needs is a hail mary there, and voter suppression/GOP sec of state can do the rest.

Colorado seemed to be heading to Obama but has tightened recently, and I think Virginia will be razor thin
Click to expand...

Harry fucking Reid got re-elected in 2010 because of the democratic ground game in that state, Obama isn't losing Nevada
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Spoiler alert

obama wins
Click to expand...

But what about Stannis...if PD says he is Stannis

Aaron Strife said:
I freely admit that it sounded like damage control at the time and it kind of was, but Thompson's flaws as a candidate have become pretty clear since winning the primary. One, he's a terrible fundraiser (running in a contested primary against a self-funder didn't do him any favors), two, his laughable run for presidency and the weirdness that came from it is manifesting itself in the Senate race (attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian, "No one better than me to get rid of Medicare!"), and three, his governorship was so long ago that any goodwill he had has fizzled out since then.

It's kind of funny that he passed on running against Feingold in 2010 when everyone was clamoring against him and assuming Russ was safe otherwise, then he lost to a rich nobody. Now he's running against a Madison liberal, lesbian, rah rah rah and getting his butt kicked.
Click to expand...

Baldwin's lead coincides with Obama pulling ahead of Romney too. I think it has all to do with Democrats coming home to roost and Dem enthusiasm going up after the DNC (helps with LV model). At this point I think WI is a tough one for Romney or Thompson to win baring any major Obama missteps.

GhaleonEB said:
So I gotta know what I did to get lumped in with Kosmo and PhoenixDark. I am self aware enough to know that I have not been able to contribute to the threads as substantially as I would prefer - my work schedule has been bananas - but I gotta say, that stings. If I'm really that bad, I'll be happy to bow out.
Click to expand...

I don't know, you aren't crazy like us...

Edit:
One thing Obama has done in the past is pulled through when all seemed down. He is fiercely competitive, but I think a part of him can't believe that so many Americans are buying into Romney's ridiculous, impossible policy proposals. I expect him to come out swinging next debate and fire Democrats up even more.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
bishoptl said:
Ease up, Ghaleon, Jackson's yanking your chain for shits n giggles.
Click to expand...

I honestly can't tell. My own humor is so dry that it sails past everyone as often as it lands, so you'd think I'd pick up on it. :lol

I figure an explanation is in order for that one.

This my 4th week in a row of working 70 hours plus; I got home at 9:30 at night today and didn't see my kids today, yet again. I was told I may be called into work tomorrow, for the fourth time in five weekends. So my brain is just fried, I sit down to unwind, and see myself getting called out alongside Kosmo. And my mind fills with fuck for a moment.

So, yeah. I can be one dense mofo. Not trying to tell a sob story, just wanted to try and walk back a dumb post by providing some context.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
Baldwin's lead coincides with Obama pulling ahead of Romney too. I think it has all to do with Democrats coming home to roost and Dem enthusiasm going up after the DNC (helps with LV model). At this point I think WI is a tough one for Romney or Thompson to win baring any major Obama missteps.
Click to expand...

Playing with the electoral math, Wisconsin and Iowa coming home to Obama makes his path to victory so much easier. With those two states gone, Romney's road to 269 becomes so much narrower.. he pretty much has to sweep all of the large states that are left.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Did Nate say he would bet on Romney right now?

So I would bet on Mr. Romney right now given the odds the model offers — but I’d have done so more confidently before the morning’s jobs report.
Click to expand...

In his latest blog post.

HylianTom said:
Playing with the electoral math, Wisconsin and Iowa coming home to Obama makes his path to victory so much easier. With those two states gone, Romney's road to 269 becomes so much narrower.. he pretty much has to sweep all of the large states that are left.
Click to expand...

I need some mother fucking polls from some good pollsters. Everybody should be polling all swing states this weekend!

It is mainly all about Ohio right now. I will take up anybody on an Avatar bet that the next NBC/WSJ/Marish, ABC/Wapo, PPP, Quinnipac polls will show OH as a dead heat +- 2 points. It will go back to tossup.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
Did Nate say he would bet on Romney right now?



In his latest blog post.



I need some mother fucking polls from some good pollsters. Everybody should be polling all swing states this weekend!
Click to expand...

He's saying the forecast model can be conservative when it comes to random movements in the polls, and he's betting on Romney getting a larger bounce that what the model has shown so far. This is all in the paragraph before what you quoted.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
bishoptl said:
The hell do you do for a living?

And why aren't you in bed?
Click to expand...

I work in corporate finance, as a cost analyst for a large manufacturing firm. It's basically the annual crunch period, with the added bonus of a shifting market, new team members and a new internal finance system in the mix. Whee!

I'm not in bed because I'm in deep denial that the day is over. It can't be. I haven't had any fun yet, dammit!
Puddles said:
It's kind of weird seeing Jackson make a joke. I always assume he's an android, probably from the same developer that made Opiate. I guess they gave him a humor app.
Click to expand...

I have to look up the words he uses at least once a day.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
Did Nate say he would bet on Romney right now?



In his latest blog post.
Click to expand...

No, he was commenting on whether Romney's bump from the debate (so far) is driven by an actual shift in voter enthusiasm for him, or simply is biased by heavy news consumers throwing the numbers off; he thinks the former is likely the case.

His post reads a lot like the basic arguments I've been making today. The question is whether this upward trend is temporary or not.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
speculawyer said:
Harry Reid was running against a crazy lady and barely won.
Click to expand...

But he also 1) had the largest target on his back of any Dem up for reelection, 2) ran in a swing state with the highest unemployment rate in the country, and 3) survived a very red wave election. Barely, but he pulled it off.

Also, let's not forget that he helped pick that crazy lady by helping to trash her primary opponent. It wasn't just good luck, it was doing what he had to do to survive. I learned a lot about Harry Reid that election. After watching him pull his punches for two years, I didn't realize what he had in him until that election cycle.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
speculawyer said:
Harry Reid was running against a crazy lady and barely won.
Click to expand...

A lot of polling companies had written his future off.

The one that got it exactly right http://media.lasvegassun.com/media/.../NVStatewideRANSeptemberInterviewSchedule.pdf showed NV-Pres dead heat in their last polls.

PPP, which still had Reid leading in their last polls showed a favorable Obama result.

Problem for Romney in NV is the state republican party is bad for GOTV, while Reid's machine is masterful.

But he also 1) had the largest target on his back of any Dem up for reelection, 2) ran in a swing state with the highest unemployment rate in the country, and 3) survived a very red wave election. Barely, but he pulled it off.

Also, let's not forget that he helped pick that crazy lady by helping to trash her primary opponent. It wasn't just good luck, it was doing what he had to do to survive. I learned a lot about Harry Reid that election. After watching him pull his punches for two years, I didn't realize what he had in him until that election cycle.
Click to expand...

Yea, Reid was masterful in getting himself re-elected that year. Similar thing with Michael Bennet of CO.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
But he also 1) had the largest target on his back of any Dem up for reelection, 2) ran in a swing state with the highest unemployment rate in the country, and 3) survived a very red wave election. Barely, but he pulled it off.

Also, let's not forget that he helped pick that crazy lady by helping to trash her primary opponent. It wasn't just good luck, it was doing what he had to do to survive. I learned a lot about Harry Reid that election. After watching him pull his punches for two years, I didn't realize what he had in him until that election cycle.
Click to expand...

It was partially his fault that the Democrats were in that position to begin with. More than anyone else, I hold him responsible for ruining the opportunity Obama had during the first two years of his administration.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I honestly can't tell. My own humor is so dry that it sails past everyone as often as it lands, so you'd think I'd pick up on it. :lol

I figure an explanation is in order for that one.

This my 4th week in a row of working 70 hours plus; I got home at 9:30 at night today and didn't see my kids today, yet again. I was told I may be called into work tomorrow, for the fourth time in five weekends. So my brain is just fried, I sit down to unwind, and see myself getting called out alongside Kosmo. And my mind fills with fuck for a moment.

So, yeah. I can be one dense mofo. Not trying to tell a sob story, just wanted to try and walk back a dumb post by providing some context.
Click to expand...
I know that feel bro.

Not in corporate finance, but deal with banks. We used to work 12-14 hours some days. At least I hope you're getting OT for all that work.
 
I

isoquant

Member
newyorkercover2.jpg


538 says he would bet on Romney?

Where's your messiah now?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
Ghaleon, who is going to win this election?

I see you as pretty level headed.
Click to expand...

Obama wins by a healthy electoral margin, Dems keep Senate, and narrow the gap in the House but do not take it.
RustyNails said:
I know that feel bro.

Not in corporate finance, but deal with banks. We used to work 12-14 hours some days. At least I hope you're getting OT for all that work.
Click to expand...
Salary. Has its upsides, but boy do the downsides rear up at times like this.

Puddles said:
It was partially his fault that the Democrats were in that position to begin with. More than anyone else, I hold him responsible for ruining the opportunity Obama had during the first two years of his administration.
Click to expand...

I agree. His failings to prevent the recovery act from getting weakened, and failing to pass or even bring up the follow up jobs bills did much to slow the recovery, or at least not boost it. The shellacking Dems took could have been much mitigated had the Senate not dawdled for so long.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
speculawyer said:
Harry Reid was running against a crazy lady and barely won.
Click to expand...
You'd be surprised how much of that was engineered by his campaign. And I wouldn't say 6 points is "barely."

GhaleonEB said:
Obama wins by a healthy electoral margin, Dems keep Senate, and narrow the gap in the House but do not take it.
Click to expand...
This is how I see it now. I think Dems will get very close to 218 but just fall short.

Speaking of Reid, assuming Democrats don't win the House this year, his would be a great playbook to use in 2014. Obama could come out with a comprehensive immigration reform bill in the beginning of 2014, watch it fail, try to pass even the DREAM Act and watch that fail, then use that to motivate Hispanics (as well as getting blacks out to the polls, which Obama can do on his own). One unsung element of Reid's victory in 2010 was that the Nevada Democratic Party got Hispanic candidates to run for local elections, boosting Hispanic turnout across the state to support their own, and naturally voted for Reid.

They could also use student aid reform to get college students out. Youth and minorities, the missing ingredients in the past GOP-favored elections.
 
I

isoquant

Member
Officerrob said:
That's not what he said at all
Click to expand...

I was being slightly facetious.

He said 'So I would bet on Mr. Romney right now given the odds the model offers'

He did also say:

The FiveThirtyEight forecast did show a clear shift toward Mr. Romney on Friday, giving him a 15.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College — up from 12.9 percent on Thursday.

My subjective view is that, despite the somewhat mixed messages that the polls gave about the magnitude of Mr. Romney’s bounce, this is still too conservative.
Click to expand...
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
L

Loudninja

Member
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
What if it's viewed as a push?
Click to expand...

I think that helps whoever is leading the Polls at that point.

No it wont at all.
Click to expand...

It is a town-hall style debate. I think Obama won the last one decisively against McCain. People seeing how these guys are going to respond to questions from Normal people like them. Romney has a big opportunity to bridge the empathy gap here, Obama has a big opportunity to paint a vivid picture of where we were and where we are.

I expect that forum to also go somewhat into Social issues where Romney is more out of mainstream and it will be a lot harder for him to just flip his positions (He can't say he favors Roe v Wade, he can't walk back on opposing Gay Marriage or DADT repeal, etc).
 
A

AniHawk

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
218 you say...? lol

I think the race after the debate is at:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=EKk

The 2nd debate will either seal Obama's fate or seal Romney's fate.

If I was the Obama campaign, I would deploy Clinton full time in OH. Would have been awesome if Hillary had just resigned 6 months ago to give Obama a top surrogate.
Click to expand...

he can lose florida, ohio, and virginia, and still win with new hampshire, colorado, and nevada.

i don't know about his chances in florida, but it sounds like things are going pretty well in ohio. however, i doubt he loses any of the three latter states.
 
F

Fox318

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Obama wins by a healthy electoral margin, Dems keep Senate, and narrow the gap in the House but do not take it.

Salary. Has its upsides, but boy do the downsides rear up at times like this.



I agree. His failings to prevent the recovery act from getting weakened, and failing to pass or even bring up the follow up jobs bills did much to slow the recovery, or at least not boost it. The shellacking Dems took could have been much mitigated had the Senate not dawdled for so long.
Click to expand...

Most important thing over the next 4 years is going to be the high courts.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
AniHawk said:
he can lose florida, ohio, and virginia, and still win with new hampshire, colorado, and nevada.

i don't know about his chances in florida, but it sounds like things are going pretty well in ohio. however, i doubt he loses any of the three latter states.
Click to expand...

CO is an interesting state...Democrats have done well there statewide and hold both Senate seats + Governor. Obama has been outspending Romney by a lot on the air but hasn't pulled forward clearly. I think the debate being there helps Romney, we will wait to see polls, but I am betting on its a dead heat.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Close to. Unless a wave starts building over this next month, it's probably out of reach.

I'd say 15-20 seats.-ish.
Click to expand...

Oooh you meant house seats, I thought you were talking about Obama getting 218 EVs. lol

Nope.

If it's a push, the media gives the edge to Obama so they can hype Round 3.

In a perfect world (for the media) Obama comes roaring back in the Town Hall to set up the above scenario...
Click to expand...

A push favors the guy who is leading...one would think.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
Romney claimed that we're worse off now than we were when Obama was inaugurated, didn't he? I'm pretty sure I remember him saying that.

If that come up again, Obama needs to absolutely hammer him on it. It's ridiculous. Things aren't ideal right now, but in late 2008 things looked to be headed for a Fallout world in short order.
 
E

el retorno

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
CO is an interesting state...Democrats have done well there statewide and hold both Senate seats + Governor. Obama has been outspending Romney by a lot on the air but hasn't pulled forward clearly. I think the debate being there helps Romney, we will wait to see polls, but I am betting on its a dead heat.
Click to expand...

you're trying to hard to discount obamas advantages
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
Puddles said:
Romney claimed that we're worse off now than we were when Obama was inaugurated, didn't he? I'm pretty sure I remember him saying that.

If that come up again, Obama needs to absolutely hammer him on it. It's ridiculous. Things aren't ideal right now, but in late 2008 things looked to be headed for a Fallout world in short order.
Click to expand...

Obama needs an 81 point game next debate.

He needs to be loose and dominate.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
pigeon said:
Nate finally posted his article, in which he says that Romney's chances this moment are probably better than 15%. I'm not convinced -- he's been arguing for the horse race all year. We shall see!
Click to expand...

The overseas gambling sites (sportsbooks not Intrade) have had Romney at 20% (no change since debates) so that sounds reasonable
 
I

ISOM

Member
I think when it comes down to it whatever the polling says when people actually have to get up and vote. People will mark obama and the election won't be as close as the media is trying to make it seem even if the polls are close and within the margin of error in some states.
 
N

norinrad

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
Obama needs an 81 point game next debate.

He needs to be loose and dominate.
Click to expand...

I kind of associate him with myself, I have never been a confrontational guy and people in the past have viewed that as being weak, but to me its not a weakness as long as you have all the facts.

What Obama needs to do is to just take the gloves off and hammer 47% with all the facts that even his master Karl Rove won't be able to dig him out of it.


Btw I always somehow hope Texas will go blue :p
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
I like these maps where people are giving Romney Florida like it's a forgone conclusion.

Voucher talk says hi.

If was the Obama campaign, I'm hammering that messaging home for the next 30 days.
 
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