Harkin not running for re-election. Could be an interesting and vital 2014 election now in IA.
If Republicans don't help themselves with the people they nominate, Dems don't help with all these resignations!
Harkin is retiring. Good lord dems may be so fucked if republicans don't nominate a bunch of idiots this time.
Don't worry too much about Iowa. IA went Obama 52-46 in 2012, 54-44 in 2008, barely went Bush in 2004 (50-49,) and went Gore in 2000. IA retained a justice that voted for gay marriage (after the debacle in the near aftermath of the decision, losing three justices that also voted for it.)
The Iowa Democratic Party is functioning well, they've already announced a candidate for Sec of State and they were well in the process of recruiting a strong candidate against the R governor, now they use those plans to recruit a candidate for a race they can actually win. This is pretty impressive considering the mess the last D governor left 2 years ago.
The Republican Party of Iowa is in shambles. Less than a year after ousting a competent Executive Director following his gaffe in the caucuses leading to a Paul supporter getting elected ED to fill the remaining term, they fought another bitter fight that again led to a Paul supporter getting elected ED. Following a relatively disappointing election on the down ballot races (although completely expected by anyone with a brain,) and the unsuccessful factions are sharpening their long knives. The Paul faction isn't raising the money the business or Christian factions could, and they don't have the electoral chops to overcome a money deficit.
Assessing the likely players:
- Bruce Braley (D-IA01) Will work his ass off.
- Dave Loebsack (D-IA02) Accidental candidate, too liberal for any district that doesn't include Iowa City and without Obama's coattails.
- Tom Latham (R-IA03) Very low profile in eastern Iowa, where most of the population is outside of Des Moines.
- Steve King (R-IA04) Can't win statewide, and I'm pretty sure he knows it.
- Tom Vilsack (D-Former governor) Statewide name recognition, not sure if he wants it.
- Christy Vilsack (D-Former First Lady, strong challenger to King-IA04) Statewide name recognition, not the strongest candidate, but people like her.
- Roxanne Conlin (D-Former Senate and gubernatorial candidate) Ran a decent campaign against Grassley in '10, could still have the organization to make another run.
- Chet Culver (D-Former gov) Not a chance in hell, I'm just throwing him in for completionists. Even Ds were bitching about him at the end of his last term.
Constitutional officers (Various) All of them seem pretty comfortable where they're at except maybe:
- Kim Reynolds (R-LtGov) Branstad seems to be grooming her more to take over the governor's mansion in 2018, but possible. Scant paper trail.
- Matt Schultz (R-SecState) Huge ego. Even for a politician. Might be smart enough to realize he can't ride the vote fraud bullshit much longer.
Outside those known possible candidates, the party leaderships for both parties initially strike me as not actively aiming higher. Senate Majority Leader Gronstal has the clout to make a run, but I think his time has passed and he'll stand pat. Rep. Tyler Olson (D - Cedar Rapids) sticks out to me as an up-and-comer setting himself up for bigger things, but honestly, I'm pretty clueless on a lot of the younger names in the statehouse. About 10-15 years ago, there was a clique of young Rs that everyone thought were going to move up to bigger things, but they kind of fizzled out and haven't done a lot politically since then (Corbett, Grubbs, Larson, Rants, and Siegrist if you're curious.) One of them might try to resurrect their political careers. Former UofIowa wrestling coach Dan Gable used to get mentioned as a possible R candidate, but he's just pissed about Title IX and probably saw how much UofNebraska football coach Tom Osborne hated Congress.
It's way too early to lay money on the line, but I'm thinking Christy Vilsack gets the nom, and IA finally elects its first woman to Congress. Latham gets the R nom, and IA-03 goes D.