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[Alcibiades]

My bet is on Spidey 2 because it's only serious competition before release is The Prisoner of Azaban (almost a month before), and in July only I, Robot looks like it might give it some serious competition (2 weeks after release)...

Shrek has made over $310 million in just 3 weeks, so I think it will definitely gross more than The Passion (which has about $370)...

I can't believe the media went on so much about how it would be difficult to outdo The Passion for #1 movie of 2004...

I think it will be between Shrek 2 and Spidey 2, depending on whether Fox can get I, Robot to start generating buzz and whether Time Warner can get some decent marketing going for Catwoman... If they can, then Spidey might slow down a bit in July, and Shrek will have a longer summer season than Spidey 2...

I hope Shrek 2 wins cause it's an awesome movie and I LOVE most of the animated films DreamWorks makes...

IMO, The Passion disappointed during the Easter season... NewMarket said they expected to end about $400 million, and they are $30 million behind...

It's amazing Shrek 2 has done so well though, because it had Troy open 5 days before, The Day After Tomorrow open the week after it's debut, and The Prisoner of Azkaban in it's 3rd weekend... VERY, VERY, heavy competition, yet it's managed to do very well...

 

[Naked Snake]

My uneducated guess: Passion > Spider-Man 2 > Shrek 2

Edit: Just read the above post, my uneducated guess was off indeed. So I guess it's Spider-Man 2 > Shrek 2 > Passion

 

[Alcibiades]

Yeah, Shrek 2 is absolutely going nutz here in the US...

It's already broken a ton of records (including "Fastest Movie to $300 million" and "Highest Threatre Count")...

 

[snaildog]

Why do they always say that these movies are competing with each other? Movies are cheap entertainment, they're on every night, and they run for about two months. I can understand the big blockbusters overshadowing smaller films, but not each other; don't people just go to both? Personally after seeing a good movie I'm keen to go to another one.

 

[Scrow]

I'd say Spidey 2 > Shrek 2 > Passion

 

[Seth C]

I'm going to say Spider-Man 2 is going to win. So far there has been no bad publicity for it, and I don't expect there to be any. Honestly, if you liked the first one you're going to love the second one...and a whole lot of people liked the first.

 

[evil ways]

Spider-Man 2 by far. Shrek 2's fanbase and major audience are the kids, who will probably go see it once, buy the toys then forget about it until it's out on DVD, while Spider-Man 2 not only has kids as well but the rabid comic book loving masses who will probably see the movie more than 2 times.

 

[Alcibiades]

Spider-Man 2 by far. Shrek 2's fanbase and major audience are the kids, who will probably go see it once, buy the toys then forget about it until it's out on DVD, while Spider-Man 2 not only has kids as well but the rabid comic book loving masses who will probably see the movie more than 2 times.

actually, DreamWorks was already getting reports of repeat viewings, and I think like 50% of the audience wasn't kids or parents, so the fanbase extends far beyond kids...

Otherwise, it wouldn't be where it is right now at $300 million...

I still think Spidey 2 will win, but definitely not by a super-wide margin...

 

[Vicious]

Well, I think it's pretty obvious that both Shrek 2 and Spider-Man 2 will beat The Passion, and both will probably go over $400 million.

I think Spider-Man 2 will probably out-gross everything this year.

 

[Bowser]

I second the

Spidey 2 > Shrek 2 > Passion

sentiment.

 

[Dead]

I think Spider Man 2 will underperform

 

[Spike Spiegel]

To be honest, I'm still a little worried by the fact that Spider-Man 2 got bumped to the 4th of July weekend.

 

[Pattergen]

Spiderman 2 is going to be really tough to predict. Right now I think Shrek 2 and Spiderman 2 will end up with similar box office takes.

 

[element]

Spidey, Shrek 2, Passion

 

[Diablos]

New York Minute!

 

[jenov4]

1. Shrek 2
2. Spiderman 2
3. The Passion

Only because Shrek 2 has more staying power than Spiderman 2.. look at how well Finding Nemo did.

 

[SteveMeister]

Shrek 2 first. Why? Because it'll be at or near $400M before Spider-Man's even released. There's basically no competition for it, unless you want to count Garfield, until Two Brothers is released on the 25th. It'll pass The Passion's total take within 2 weeks. This is primarily for two reasons: 1, it's in more theaters than any other movie has been, ever. And 2, it's only 85 minutes long. More showtimes per day means more $$$.

Spider-Man 2 will do extremely well... will it beat Shrek 2? It's possible, but it'll have to have legs, because it's going to be much longer and we don't know how many theaters it's going to be in yet. Even Harry Potter 3 isn't in as many theaters as Shrek 2 is.

The Passion is finished -- it may make another $1M, but it's fading fast. It will not match Return of the King's total take. For a comparison, this past weekend was The Passion of the Christ's 15th week, and it made $98,010, showing in 440 theaters. Contrast that to Return of the King. In the same weekend (following its 15th week), ROTK made $705,817 -- over seven times as much as The Passion -- and was playing in 1,021 theaters. There really isn't any way The Passion is going to gain the almost $8M it's going to need to pass Return of the King.

 

[Kuroyume]

The passion? Give me a break... These will be the top 3 in BO numbers...

1) Blade 3
2) Spiderman 2
3) Harry Potter 3

 

[Pattergen]

Blade 3 isn't a summer movie and it won't gross anywhere near what Shrek 2 has already made.

 

[MrPing1000]

1. Shrek 2
2. Spiderman 2
3. The Passion

agreed

 

[Triumph]

1. Fahrenheit 9/11
2. Some porn flick
3. Shrek 2

Oh shit, I thought the thread title was "Which 2004 releases will make the most off of YOUR money?" NEVERMIND!!!