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Wkd BO 02•17-19•17 - Americans say no to The Wall on Presidents' Day Weekend

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S

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
kswiston said:
So we have one slow week left before 7 straight weekends of major releases.

Anyone have domestic/worldwide predictions for any of the bigger releases?:

Logan
Kong: Skull Island
Beauty and the Beast
Power Rangers
Ghost in the Shell
Fate of the Furious
Click to expand...

I forgot, Logan out in 2 weeks. GITS and FF too.
 
S

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
MIMIC said:
Man, Hidden Figures has had some excellent holds. Nine weeks and has only dropped to No. 6 (so far). And also, that's pretty dismal for "A Cure For Wellness." I thought it looked like an interesting movie, but that RT score isn't comforting. Oh well.
Click to expand...

I said it in the Oscar thread, but I feel like it is the most important movie out this season. Hopefully it leads to more films too.
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
kswiston said:
Anyone have domestic/worldwide predictions for any of the bigger releases?:

Logan 210/650
Kong: Skull Island 85/270
Beauty and the Beast 575/1.3B
Power Rangers 130/400
Ghost in the Shell 130/500
Fate of the Furious 310/1.3B
Click to expand...
I can't believe there's 5 blockbusters this March and zero in August. Lionsgate messed up big time not moving Power Rangers to August.

That said, Kong feels like odd man out to me with its inconsistent tone in trailers and releasing a week before BatB, which as you can tell, I expect to be a monster.
 
F

Freeza Under The Shower

Member
I'm going through 'upcoming movies' and there is a movie called "Prevenge" coming out in March, and it's exactly what you think it is:

actual synopsis said:
Widow Ruth is seven months pregnant when, believing herself to be guided by her unborn baby, she embarks on a homicidal rampage, dispatching anyone who stands in her way.
Click to expand...

This sounds awesomely bad.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
kswiston said:
So we have one slow week left before 7 straight weekends of major releases.

Anyone have domestic/worldwide predictions for any of the bigger releases?:

Logan
Kong: Skull Island
Beauty and the Beast
Power Rangers
Ghost in the Shell
Fate of the Furious
Click to expand...

No exact box office score predictions from me but
Beauty and Fate will clean up worldwide (no brainier)

Logan will do well as Fox X movies go (maybe Deadpool numbers)

The others will disappoint at the box office.
 
H

Hero_of_the_Day

Member
ryutaro's mama said:
No exact box office score predictions from me but
Beauty and Fate will clean up worldwide (no brainier)

Logan will do well as Fox X movies go (maybe Deadpool numbers)

The others will disappoint at the box office.
Click to expand...

Fate is going to be huge. It's not going to make as much as the last one, but it will still be massively successful.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
I can't believe there's 5 blockbusters this March and zero in August. Lionsgate messed up big time not moving Power Rangers to August.

That said, Kong feels like odd man out to me with its inconsistent tone in trailers and releasing a week before BatB, which as you can tell, I expect to be a monster.
Click to expand...

You are going all in on Beauty and the Beast!

If Beauty and the Beast hits Finding Dory to Rogue One numbers domestically, I could see it doing $1.1B or so. $475-525M for that film domestically still seems bonkers to me, but the reception has been extremely positive/strong so far. Even with that in mind, $800M overseas is really high with the current exchange rates.


As for Fate of the Furious, Furious 7 would have made ~$1.4B under the current exchange rates. I think that the domestic gross will drop $50-75M, with Europe seeing similar % drops. I'm not sure about Asia or Latin America, but they could hold better (in local currency). Maybe $300M/$1.2B worldwide. I wouldn't be that surprised if the drop was larger though.


Logan could end up being bigger than $210M if it gets some crossover audience that saw Deadpool, but typically skips other X-films. I think that your prediction is pretty reasonable though. A huge boost over The Wolverine domestically, but still within the franchise norms. As for Overseas, the last Wolverine movie did $282M OS. China was $40M. At the time, that was the best haul for an X-Film, but both DOFP and Apocalypse broke $115M. I think that Logan also has a good shot at hitting $100M+. Bump the rest of the territories up by a similar percentage as the domestic bump, and your $650M seems pretty reasonable to me. I'd probably guess $600-700M.


I have less of an opinion on the other three.

- Both $200M and $400M WW seem plausible for Ghost in the Shell depending on reviews. I don't think the license is strong enough to carry the film if it is absolute trash. If it is middling to good, that and ScarJo will get some interest.
- Who knows for Kong. I don't think he has as big a fanbase as Godzilla, so something closer to Pacific Rim seems reasonable.
- Power Rangers looks like absolute trash to me. However, almost all of these 90s nostalgia films have looked like absolute trash to me (including Jurassic World). The trailers are getting a lot more buzz than I thought they would after watching them myself, so I guess your numbers could be close. If I was just basing my guess on the trailers without any external buzz to go off of, I would have halved that number.
 
T

twinturbo2

butthurt Heat fan
shira said:
StiLLL top 10
sBGHao4.jpg

Dem legs
Click to expand...
The salt over La La Land cleaning house next week is going to be immense. I may stay off of twitter that night.
 
K

kswiston

Member
twinturbo2 said:
The salt over La La Land cleaning house next week is going to be immense. I may stay off of twitter that night.
Click to expand...

I don't know why people will care that much. La La Land might take 1 of the 4 acting awards. Even if it takes picture,director, and screenplay, it's not like the other contenders are going to be completely shut out.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
kswiston said:
I don't know why people will care that much. La La Land might take 1 of the 4 acting awards. Even if it takes picture,director, and screenplay, it's not like the other contenders are going to be completely shut out.
Click to expand...

Still haven't seen ALL the BP nominees, but for me, the two most well-made films I've seen this year are The Handmaiden and Green Room.

(I'd give BP to Moonlight before I gave it to La La Land, though)
 
K

kswiston

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
Still haven't seen ALL the BP nominees, but for me, the two most well-made films I've seen this year are The Handmaiden and Green Room.

(I'd give BP to Moonlight before I gave it to La La Land, though)
Click to expand...


The Academy (and the related guilds that make the academy) has their specific tastes the same as any awards committee. Sentimentality of the type found in La La Land always plays well. I think that the film was well made and generally well acted, so I have no problem with it winning, even if it's not the best film of the year in my subjective opinion. I would also be happy to see Moonlight win. I haven't seen Fences yet. Manchester was well acted, but I didn't think the film as a whole was as strong as some of the others. I wouldn't be up in arms if that won either though.

I haven't seen the Handmaiden yet, but this year's pics for Foreign Language film are a bit puzzling.
 
O

OrangeAtlas

Member
I've seen every Best Picture nominee (except Lion) and The Handmaiden is still probably my favorite movie of last year. It'd probably get no recognition anyways, but the fact that it's been entirely excluded from nominations is a tragedy.
 
K

kswiston

Member
OrangeAtlas said:
I've seen every Best Picture nominee (except Lion) and The Handmaiden is still probably my favorite movie of last year. It'd probably get no recognition anyways, but the fact that it's been entirely excluded from nominations is a tragedy.
Click to expand...

South Korea got to pick their nominee, so blame them I guess.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
kswiston said:
You are going all in on Beauty and the Beast!

If Beauty and the Beast hits Finding Dory to Rogue One numbers domestically, I could see it doing $1.1B or so. $475-525M for that film domestically still seems bonkers to me, but the reception has been extremely positive/strong so far. Even with that in mind, $800M overseas is really high with the current exchange rates.


As for Fate of the Furious, Furious 7 would have made ~$1.4B under the current exchange rates. I think that the domestic gross will drop $50-75M, with Europe seeing similar % drops. I'm not sure about Asia or Latin America, but they could hold better (in local currency). Maybe $300M/$1.2B worldwide. I wouldn't be that surprised if the drop was larger though.


Logan could end up being bigger than $210M if it gets some crossover audience that saw Deadpool, but typically skips other X-films. I think that your prediction is pretty reasonable though. A huge boost over The Wolverine domestically, but still within the franchise norms. As for Overseas, the last Wolverine movie did $282M OS. China was $40M. At the time, that was the best haul for an X-Film, but both DOFP and Apocalypse broke $115M. I think that Logan also has a good shot at hitting $100M+. Bump the rest of the territories up by a similar percentage as the domestic bump, and your $650M seems pretty reasonable to me. I'd probably guess $600-700M.


I have less of an opinion on the other three.

- Both $200M and $400M WW seem plausible for Ghost in the Shell depending on reviews. I don't think the license is strong enough to carry the film if it is absolute trash. If it is middling to good, that and ScarJo will get some interest.
- Who knows for Kong. I don't think he has as big a fanbase as Godzilla, so something closer to Pacific Rim seems reasonable.
- Power Rangers looks like absolute trash to me. However, almost all of these 90s nostalgia films have looked like absolute trash to me (including Jurassic World). The trailers are getting a lot more buzz than I thought they would after watching them myself, so I guess your numbers could be close. If I was just basing my guess on the trailers without any external buzz to go off of, I would have halved that number.
Click to expand...

Good stuff in this post.

I could see BatB edging out FotF worldwide but I think it will be really close if BatB gets shining reviews. It could be Ms. Watson's post Potter breakout performance.
 
B

BronsonLee

Member
BATB hits a billy beyond that it's a crapshoot IMO

PhoncipleBone said:
I would believe you if the directors' guild awarded him ahead of time.
Click to expand...

There are two snubs which I will never forgive:
Boyhood for that fuckin bird film
Rocky not getting Best Supporting cause Spielberg wanted to circle jerk again
 
W

WaffleTaco

Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
I honestly wish they had moved one of the best pictures out of being nominated and put in Zootopia. It's probably the best animated movie of the decade and having it being recognised for its achievements would have been great.

BronsonLee said:
BATB hits a billy beyond that it's a crapshoot IMO



There are two snubs which I will never forgive:
Boyhood for that fuckin bird film
Rocky not getting Best Supporting cause Spielberg wanted to circle jerk again
Click to expand...
I think Boyhood being nominated at all was stupid. The only thing interesting about that film is it being filmed over like 12 years or whatever. Birdman was a much better film in nearly every aspect.
 
O

OrangeAtlas

Member
WaffleTaco said:
I honestly wish they had moved one of the best pictures out of being nominated and put in Zootopia. It's probably the best animated movie of the decade and having it being recognised for its achievements would have been great.
Click to expand...

Only 9 of 10 possible films were nominated this year. That empty spot is just screaming for a mainstream film that people actually saw.
 
B

BronsonLee

Member
WaffleTaco said:
I think Boyhood being nominated at all was stupid. The only thing interesting about that film is it being filmed over like 12 years or whatever. Birdman was a much better film in nearly every aspect.
Click to expand...

Birdman won because it was Inarritu and a movie about Hollywood, they couldn't fuckin help themselves

He didn't deserve it for Revenant either

ryutaro's mama said:
I yelled at my screen when that bullshit happened.
Click to expand...

And the award goes to this shit who's going to sound like he has marbles in his mouth in a 150 million dollar animated film
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
lightskintwin said:
I think that was the year that made massive ad campaigns to win an Oscar a thing and drove a wedge between the Weinsteins and Speilberg.
Click to expand...

Yeah, 98 was the year people finally really noticed how purchasable an Oscar was.

The political machinations had been there for awhile before that point, but that was the year the Weinsteins pursued it so nakedly that media couldn't not remark upon it.
 
P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
Harvey Weinstein is a goddamn villian. I still can't believe he was able to get The Reader five oscar nominations.

Though, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close suggests that Daldry may have compromising photos of academy members.
 
R

Ridley327

Member
Biggest-Geek-Ever said:
Harvey Weinstein is a goddamn villian. I still can't believe he was able to get The Reader five oscar nominations.

Though, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close suggests that Daldry may have compromising photos of academy members.
Click to expand...

For all the diabolical shit Weinstein is responsible for, I can't completely hate the guy. He is still a major reason for the existence of the current independent film market and, even though few actually stayed on with him, he did get a lot of important names out there from cast and crew alike that may not have gotten recognition otherwise. It's one of those "give the devil his due" situations.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
I am still salty over Malcolm X getting completely snubbed...how the fuck does that even happen?

But let's give it to Denzel for fucking Training Day of all his movies.
 
L

lightskintwin

Banned
OrangeAtlas said:
I've seen every Best Picture nominee (except Lion) and The Handmaiden is still probably my favorite movie of last year. It'd probably get no recognition anyways, but the fact that it's been entirely excluded from nominations is a tragedy.
Click to expand...

Y'know what, I checked and The Handmaiden actually made a qualifying run in America and was eligible for other categories. It got completely ignored.

ryutaro's mama said:
I am still salty over Malcolm X getting completely snubbed...how the fuck does that even happen?

But let's give it to Denzel for fucking Training Day of all his movies.
Click to expand...

Agreed, although you shouldn't be surprised why it happened. Do the Right thing was also snubbed for Best Picture and Best Director too.
 
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