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Asteroid may impact Earth in 2032
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
India is used to air pollution, so maybe it wouldn’t affect them as muchThe current prediction, IF it hits.
Cyberpunkd
Member
Quiet, this is no place for logic. We are busy hyperventilating due to impending doom.
Nah, more like hit the Panama canal right after we buy it and turn it into a nice wide passageWow it might hit our new Gulf of America though
Bitmap Frogs
Mr. Community
It's small enough that fracturing is a viable solution. If you can turn it down to 4 10 meter impactors it's a nothingburger. Anything bigger however, you have to divert.
AGRacing
Member
I just watched James May in India on Amazon. It’s clear they’re still recovering from the last big asteroid impact.
TDiddyLive
Member
0neAnd0nly
Member
Here's the bad part...
There are 2, 518 days until 2032.
At its current rate of increasing probability of .8 every 4 days...
That means there will be a 506% chance of impact.
This Math totally checks out. Be warned.
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VaultBoy101
Member
At this point it seems like the logical conclusion to this timeline, so sure, get on over here.
LimanimaPT
Member
Only 2%? I loose poker hands with less then that everyday.
Donald mac Ronald
Member
It would cause a huge tsunami, mega tsunami if you will.
P:axMagellanic
Member
Aerosolised shit particles will be deadly for the rest of us.
Pegasus Actual
Member
Oi, somebody grabbed the MS Paint and had themselves a bit of a scribble innit.The current prediction, IF it hits.
Cyberpunkd
Member
Magic Carpet
Gold Member
2032? When does the review embargo end?
EverydayBeast
ChatGPT 0.001
I can’t imagine an asteroid impact, you’re dealing with something that’s massive, people life’s ending, could people survive? There might be a couple found underground.
kutthoat5150
Member
We'll lose sight of it around April-May this year at which point it won't be back near us to study again until 2028. We'll need to make a decision soon how we'll deal with it if it still poses risk and if the US will step in to help or leave it up to somebody else to figure out as it poses no risk for us but could potentially mess it up and make it worse.
Cyberpunkd
Member
That shit is so tiny if it hits Earth with 100% of it's size (so no atmosphere burn) it will be an equivalent of one atom bomb, and not the largest one at that.
From the OP:
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ah *just* one atom bomb. then it can drop in the middle of NY for all I care
BlackTron
Member
And even if it never increases at all, it's still a much bigger chance of being hit by an asteroid than winning the lottery, right now.
Either way, you're fucked.
El Muerto
Member
China sets up "planetary defense" unit over 2032 asteroid threat
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, and China is preparing to deter it by mirroring a U.S. space test.
www.newsweek.com
Pagusas
Elden Member
Couple of things... 1 if it hits India or central America, that could be tens of millions dead. Peoples lives have value.
2. this is amazingly good practice to start testing and planning for something worse.
Edgelord79
Gold Member
Maybe it will land in the Gulf of America.
TheInfamousKira
Reseterror Resettler
Planetary iron dome system when?
The Sum of Zero
Member
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hullostranger
Member
So Armageddon, Deep Impact and Don’t Look Up are a mainstream indication for Wormwood?
clem84
Gold Member
Anyone else keeps coming back to this thread to see if the percentage has gone up? lol
I'm starting to see stuff on my socials showing the possible impact sites as all equatorial spots. As you can imagine, quite a few "oh well, let it hit" comments. Ahhh, humanity, never lets me down.
Mikado
Member
China sets up "planetary defense" unit over 2032 asteroid threat
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, and China is preparing to deter it by mirroring a U.S. space test.
China: "Meh, it could be worse"
iykyk
Pagusas
Elden Member
Yeah, I feel like this is now Evillore's life purpose.
ForAcademicPurposes
Member
When that day comes, I am not dying sober.
John Bilbo
Member
Asteroid forecast from day before yesterday: 2% probability of Earthly impact.
ChuckeRearmed
Member
Welcome to Jurassic Park!
Edgelord79
Gold Member
Actually 2.2 not 2.4% based on CNEOS. Still disconcerting though.
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024 YR4
https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024 YR4
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Insane Metal
Member
Where's the 10km asteroid when we need it?
sono
Gold Member
I asked Grok what would be the theoretical blast radius
To determine the theoretical blast radius of a 70-meter asteroid impacting Earth on land, we need to consider several factors, including the asteroid's size, composition, velocity, and the energy released upon impact. Let's break this down step by step:
1. Asteroid Characteristics
Diameter: 70 meters
Density: Asteroids can be stony (density 2,600 kg/m³), iron (7,800 kg/m³), or a mix. We'll assume a stony asteroid (most common) for this calculation.
Velocity: Typical asteroid impact velocities range from 11 km/s to 25 km/s. We'll use an average of 17 km/s (a reasonable estimate for Earth-crossing asteroids).
Mass: The volume of a 70-meter sphere is
V = \frac{4}{3} \pi r^3
, where
r = 35 \, \text{m}
.
V = \frac{4}{3} \pi (35)^3 \approx 179,594 \, \text{m}^3
Mass
m = \text{density} \times \text{volume}
:
m = 2,600 \, \text{kg/m}^3 \times 179,594 \, \text{m}^3 \approx 4.67 \times 10^8 \, \text{kg}
2. Impact Energy
The kinetic energy of the asteroid is given by:
E = \frac{1}{2} m v^2
Substituting
m = 4.67 \times 10^8 \, \text{kg}
and
v = 17,000 \, \text{m/s}
:
E = \frac{1}{2} (4.67 \times 10^8) (17,000)^2
E = \frac{1}{2} (4.67 \times 10^8) (2.89 \times 10^8)
E \approx 6.75 \times 10^{16} \, \text{Joules}
To contextualize, 1 megaton (MT) of TNT releases
4.184 \times 10^{15} \, \text{J}
. So:
E \approx \frac{6.75 \times 10^{16}}{4.184 \times 10^{15}} \approx 16.1 \, \text{MT of TNT}
This is equivalent to a 16-megaton explosion, roughly comparable to the largest nuclear weapons ever tested (e.g., Tsar Bomba was 50 MT).
3. Blast Radius Calculation
The blast radius depends on the energy released and how it propagates through the atmosphere and ground. For airbursts or surface impacts, scaling laws are used to estimate the radius of destruction. The blast radius for overpressure (damage) scales roughly with the cube root of the energy:
R \propto (E)^{1/3}
Using empirical data for nuclear explosions:
A 1 MT explosion causes severe damage (overpressure > 20 psi, destroying most structures) within ~2–3 km.
The energy scales with
R \propto (E)^{1/3}
, so for 16 MT:
R = R_{\text{1 MT}} \times (16)^{1/3}
(16)^{1/3} \approx 2.52
If
R_{\text{1 MT}} \approx 2.5 \, \text{km}
for severe damage:
R \approx 2.5 \, \text{km} \times 2.52 \approx 6.3 \, \text{km}
Thus, the blast radius for severe damage (20 psi overpressure) is approximately 6–7 km.
4. Additional Effects
Thermal Radiation: The fireball from a 16 MT explosion would cause third-degree burns (and ignite flammable materials) out to ~15–20 km, depending on atmospheric conditions.
Seismic Effects: The impact would generate an earthquake of magnitude ~6–7 locally, causing structural damage up to ~50 km, depending on the geology.
Crater Size: Using impact crater scaling laws, a 70-meter stony asteroid at 17 km/s would create a crater 1–1.5 km in diameter and ~300–400 meters deep. The immediate area (1–2 km) would be obliterated.
Ejecta and Airblast: Debris and shockwaves could extend damage (broken windows, minor structural damage) out to ~30–50 km.
5. Comparison to Real Events
The Tunguska event (1908) involved a ~50–60-meter object (likely a comet or asteroid) exploding in the atmosphere with an energy of ~10–15 MT. It flattened trees over 2,150 km² (radius ~25 km).
A 70-meter asteroid impacting on land would be slightly more energetic, with a similar or slightly larger damage radius, especially if it doesn't airburst and strikes the surface.
Final Answer
The largest theoretical blast radius for severe structural damage (20 psi overpressure) from a 70-meter asteroid impacting land is ~6–7 km. However:
Thermal effects (burns, fires) could extend to 15–20 km.
Airblast and minor damage (broken windows, debris) could extend to 30–50 km.
The crater itself would be ~1–1.5 km in diameter, with total devastation within ~2–3 km.
This is a regional-scale disaster, not global, but it would devastate a city-sized area if it struck a populated region.
Notes
These estimates depend on the asteroid's composition, velocity, and impact angle. An iron asteroid or higher velocity would increase the energy and damage.
Tools like the Impact Earth Calculator (Purdue University) or Earth Impact Effects Program can provide more precise estimates based on specific parameters.
To determine the theoretical blast radius of a 70-meter asteroid impacting Earth on land, we need to consider several factors, including the asteroid's size, composition, velocity, and the energy released upon impact. Let's break this down step by step:
1. Asteroid Characteristics
Diameter: 70 meters
Density: Asteroids can be stony (density 2,600 kg/m³), iron (7,800 kg/m³), or a mix. We'll assume a stony asteroid (most common) for this calculation.
Velocity: Typical asteroid impact velocities range from 11 km/s to 25 km/s. We'll use an average of 17 km/s (a reasonable estimate for Earth-crossing asteroids).
Mass: The volume of a 70-meter sphere is
V = \frac{4}{3} \pi r^3
, where
r = 35 \, \text{m}
.
V = \frac{4}{3} \pi (35)^3 \approx 179,594 \, \text{m}^3
Mass
m = \text{density} \times \text{volume}
:
m = 2,600 \, \text{kg/m}^3 \times 179,594 \, \text{m}^3 \approx 4.67 \times 10^8 \, \text{kg}
2. Impact Energy
The kinetic energy of the asteroid is given by:
E = \frac{1}{2} m v^2
Substituting
m = 4.67 \times 10^8 \, \text{kg}
and
v = 17,000 \, \text{m/s}
:
E = \frac{1}{2} (4.67 \times 10^8) (17,000)^2
E = \frac{1}{2} (4.67 \times 10^8) (2.89 \times 10^8)
E \approx 6.75 \times 10^{16} \, \text{Joules}
To contextualize, 1 megaton (MT) of TNT releases
4.184 \times 10^{15} \, \text{J}
. So:
E \approx \frac{6.75 \times 10^{16}}{4.184 \times 10^{15}} \approx 16.1 \, \text{MT of TNT}
This is equivalent to a 16-megaton explosion, roughly comparable to the largest nuclear weapons ever tested (e.g., Tsar Bomba was 50 MT).
3. Blast Radius Calculation
The blast radius depends on the energy released and how it propagates through the atmosphere and ground. For airbursts or surface impacts, scaling laws are used to estimate the radius of destruction. The blast radius for overpressure (damage) scales roughly with the cube root of the energy:
R \propto (E)^{1/3}
Using empirical data for nuclear explosions:
A 1 MT explosion causes severe damage (overpressure > 20 psi, destroying most structures) within ~2–3 km.
The energy scales with
R \propto (E)^{1/3}
, so for 16 MT:
R = R_{\text{1 MT}} \times (16)^{1/3}
(16)^{1/3} \approx 2.52
If
R_{\text{1 MT}} \approx 2.5 \, \text{km}
for severe damage:
R \approx 2.5 \, \text{km} \times 2.52 \approx 6.3 \, \text{km}
Thus, the blast radius for severe damage (20 psi overpressure) is approximately 6–7 km.
4. Additional Effects
Thermal Radiation: The fireball from a 16 MT explosion would cause third-degree burns (and ignite flammable materials) out to ~15–20 km, depending on atmospheric conditions.
Seismic Effects: The impact would generate an earthquake of magnitude ~6–7 locally, causing structural damage up to ~50 km, depending on the geology.
Crater Size: Using impact crater scaling laws, a 70-meter stony asteroid at 17 km/s would create a crater 1–1.5 km in diameter and ~300–400 meters deep. The immediate area (1–2 km) would be obliterated.
Ejecta and Airblast: Debris and shockwaves could extend damage (broken windows, minor structural damage) out to ~30–50 km.
5. Comparison to Real Events
The Tunguska event (1908) involved a ~50–60-meter object (likely a comet or asteroid) exploding in the atmosphere with an energy of ~10–15 MT. It flattened trees over 2,150 km² (radius ~25 km).
A 70-meter asteroid impacting on land would be slightly more energetic, with a similar or slightly larger damage radius, especially if it doesn't airburst and strikes the surface.
Final Answer
The largest theoretical blast radius for severe structural damage (20 psi overpressure) from a 70-meter asteroid impacting land is ~6–7 km. However:
Thermal effects (burns, fires) could extend to 15–20 km.
Airblast and minor damage (broken windows, debris) could extend to 30–50 km.
The crater itself would be ~1–1.5 km in diameter, with total devastation within ~2–3 km.
This is a regional-scale disaster, not global, but it would devastate a city-sized area if it struck a populated region.
Notes
These estimates depend on the asteroid's composition, velocity, and impact angle. An iron asteroid or higher velocity would increase the energy and damage.
Tools like the Impact Earth Calculator (Purdue University) or Earth Impact Effects Program can provide more precise estimates based on specific parameters.
Hudo
Gold Member
Not even on GAF, I can escape Latex.
The most excruciating part of math courses by far.
ForAcademicPurposes
Member
Scott Manley's room is awesomesauce
I'm kinda curious if "big space" (i.e. SpaceX, Blue Origin, NASA, etc) actually WANT this thing to hit, preferably in a manner that is dramatic but not directly affecting first world operations, just so it would create a MASSIVE call for a planetary defense system and push trillions their way. Obviously I don't think we have the capability to MAKE this thing hit us, I just wonder if some groups would be happy if it did (and only hit along that low equatorial path not directly affecting the US or Europe). It would potentially be the largest hit in a century and I'm sure we would have time to both mitigate any loss of human life but also capture the impact in glorious 4K.
ForAcademicPurposes
Member
Please target my workplace Asteroid-kun.
I will die.
Of laughter.
I will die.
Of laughter.
Lunarorbit
Member
I thought I saw a 1 in 32 chance just yesterday.
We got this boyz!
We got this boyz!