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[Fuzzy]

Here's another question (that hopefully won't be ignored), what's the retail participation like for NPD Canada? Same as the US?

 

[schuelma]

It depends. Are we going to restrict it to Canadian posters only?

racist

 

[Parl]

Canada Day sees no increase in sales whatsoever. We're kidding.

No increase in alcohol sales whatsoever?

 

[pswii60]

You don't think September numbers will be affected by Halo release in any way?

Everyone who wants Halo 3 already owned an Xbox 360 in December 2005.

 

[schuelma]

Everyone who wants Halo 3 already owned an Xbox 360 in December 2005.

Oh not this again

 

[Fuzzy]

No increase in alcohol sales whatsoever?

No, we load up before May Two-Four with enough to last us through Labour Day.

 

[Gadfly]

Everyone who wants Halo 3 already owned an Xbox 360 in December 2005.

ok

 

[RBH]

Everyone who wants Halo 3 already owned an Xbox 360 in December 2005.

Yes, this is exactly what this thread needed.

 

[Square2005]

Sure, if you look at the June US NPD numbers.

Wait, is Canada Day in June?

 

[Fuzzy]

Everyone who wants Halo 3 already owned an Xbox 360 in December 2005.

That's just crazy talk, the Xbox 360 had shortages until March 2006.

Wait, is Canada Day in June?

July 1st aka during the June 2007 NPD reporting period.

 

[frankthurk]

Everyone who wants Halo 3 already owned an Xbox 360 in December 2005.

Ahh, but what you are forgetting is that they will all be buying the new Halo themed 360s thus creating a huge sales spike anyway.

Spoiler

cat helmet

 

[sonycowboy]

Oh not this again

agreed, it's a bit off topic, but it's not all that off base. Halo 2 sales did not cause a spike in Xbox sales despite selling ridiculously well day 1, month 1 and so forth.

The advantage the 360 has in this situation is:

Maybe some Halo gamers don't have a 360 yet, that is no Halo has sold this box yet
It's earlier in the generation, thus allowing single games to affect the installed base more

The 360 isn't as reliant on the one game as they've clearly got the best lineup for the reminder on the year, with the PS3 having some potentially great, but definitely unknown quantities out there.

 

[schuelma]

agreed, it's a bit off topic, but it's not all that off base. Halo 2 sales did not cause a spike in Xbox sales despite selling ridiculously well day 1, month 1 and so forth.

The advantage the 360 has in this situation is:

Maybe some Halo gamers don't have a 360 yet, that is no Halo has sold this box yet
It's earlier in the generation, thus allowing single games to affect the installed base more

The 360 isn't as reliant on the one game as they've clearly got the best lineup for the reminder on the year, with the PS3 having some potentially great, but definitely unknown quantities out there.

Oh I agree that its not completely off base, but I do think there is decent sized casual market that will jump in when Halo 3 releases. As big a spike as many xboxers think? I don't think so..but I do think there will be a spike if for no other reason than the massive massive public awareness Halo 3 will give to the console.

 

[Gadfly]

agreed, it's a bit off topic, but it's not all that off base. Halo 2 sales did not cause a spike in Xbox sales despite selling ridiculously well day 1, month 1 and so forth.

The advantage the 360 has in this situation is:

Maybe some Halo gamers don't have a 360 yet, that is no Halo has sold this box yet
It's earlier in the generation, thus allowing single games to affect the installed base more

The 360 isn't as reliant on the one game as they've clearly got the best lineup for the reminder on the year, with the PS3 having some potentially great, but definitely unknown quantities out there.

I don't expect a big jump but I think 50-100K increase in sales is possible.

The increase could also be the tail effect of the price cut/second heatsink that happened in August or in anticipation of Fall lineup (and not entirely due to Halo release).

 

[Odysseus]

Oh I agree that its not completely off base, but I do think there is decent sized casual market that will jump in when Halo 3 releases. As big a spike as many xboxers think? I don't think so..but I do think there will be a spike if for no other reason than the massive massive public awareness Halo 3 will give to the console.

i wouldn't be surprised if august was the highest month before november (in terms of weekly averages). the one spoiler is the halo 360 sku, it might cause a few of the more insane variety to go out and buy the system all over again. i'm not a subscriber to the theory that everyone who wants halo 3 already has a 360, but i also don't subscribe to the theory that everyone without a 360 that wants halo 3 is going to jump in all at once as soon as the game ships. i think halo 3 has been selling consoles since day 1, and will continue to help sell consoles until day 2001. a 9/25 spike? minor.

 

[KINGMOKU]

agreed, it's a bit off topic, but it's not all that off base. Halo 2 sales did not cause a spike in Xbox sales despite selling ridiculously well day 1, month 1 and so forth.

The advantage the 360 has in this situation is:

Maybe some Halo gamers don't have a 360 yet, that is no Halo has sold this box yet
It's earlier in the generation, thus allowing single games to affect the installed base more

The 360 isn't as reliant on the one game as they've clearly got the best lineup for the reminder on the year, with the PS3 having some potentially great, but definitely unknown quantities out there.

If your talking sales-wise, and moving units, I would have to disagree with you there.

 

[Odysseus]

If your talking sales-wise, and moving units, I would have to disagree with you there.

the question remains how much inventory nintendo will be able to build up in anticipation of the holiday season. the sky is the limit otherwise.

 

[KINGMOKU]

the question remains how much inventory nintendo will be able to build up in anticipation of the holiday season. the sky is the limit otherwise.

Hardware is a huge question mark, so no debate there. I just think that sales-wise, the Wii has a better lineup going into the holidays. With GTA delayed, I dont think there is even a question.

 

[castle007]

Corrected to > 7-1

aahhh, thanks.

 

[tanod]

Tanod: I'm confused.

With the PSP, I mean that they thought there were more units out there and that they would last until the PSP2000 comes out in September. Out of stock issues show that this is not the case.

With the PS3, it's a little more complicated. They say there is enough (there probably is) in the retail channel to last through the holidays. If they make the same mistake as the PSP with the out of stock situation, they may be at a point where a $500 version of the PS3 is not available this holiday season. I make the assumption that when stock is cleared of the 60GB models, they will be releasing an 80GB model sans MotorStorm for $500. The concern should be that they don't have consoles to sell at $500.

 

[GhaleonEB]

agreed, it's a bit off topic, but it's not all that off base. Halo 2 sales did not cause a spike in Xbox sales despite selling ridiculously well day 1, month 1 and so forth.

The advantage the 360 has in this situation is:

Maybe some Halo gamers don't have a 360 yet, that is no Halo has sold this box yet
It's earlier in the generation, thus allowing single games to affect the installed base more

The 360 isn't as reliant on the one game as they've clearly got the best lineup for the reminder on the year, with the PS3 having some potentially great, but definitely unknown quantities out there.

What's intesting is no 360 game so far has really caused a hardware sales spike, despite a long string of big debuts over the past year and a half. Sales have chugged along at a very predictable rate; even Nov-Dec last year were well within seasonality despite the smash Gears of War became.

But I suspect Halo 3 will be different, partly for the reasons you outlined above, and partly because there will be a combined effect with the price cut. September sales could be up substantially from last year. In fact, they'd better be, or Microsoft should be very, very worried.

 

[Jokeropia]

Nintendo really needs to get more Wiis out there. Didn't June have one more week in it, though? I guess the drop off isn't too bad, especially considering there wasn't any real games for the system in July as opposed to the several that came out the month before.

Canada has been getting unproportionally large shipments compared to the US for most of the year, it's only fair if they balance it out a little.

Ya... nothing like this happened around the launch of the DSL... oh wait

If you're expecting a DS Lite type boost for the new PSP, I think you will be quite disappointed.

 

[Odysseus]

What's intesting is no 360 game so far has really caused a hardware sales spike, despite a long string of big debuts over the past year and a half. Sales have chugged along at a very predictable rate; even Nov-Dec last year were well within seasonality despite the smash Gears of War became.

But I suspect Halo 3 will be different, partly for the reasons you outlined above, and partly because there will be a combined effect with the price cut. September sales could be up substantially from last year. In fact, they'd better be, or Microsoft should be very, very worried.

i would comment on this to sort of agree with the first paragraph and provide more substance, but i don't feel like restating myself to that degree. so

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6553756&postcount=1153
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6554441&postcount=1171
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6555538&postcount=1188
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=6556167&postcount=1218

 

[jetjevons]

agreed, it's a bit off topic, but it's not all that off base. Halo 2 sales did not cause a spike in Xbox sales despite selling ridiculously well day 1, month 1 and so forth.

The advantage the 360 has in this situation is:

Maybe some Halo gamers don't have a 360 yet, that is no Halo has sold this box yet
It's earlier in the generation, thus allowing single games to affect the installed base more

The 360 isn't as reliant on the one game as they've clearly got the best lineup for the reminder on the year, with the PS3 having some potentially great, but definitely unknown quantities out there.

That's waaaaay to much logic for a GAF post dude.

 

[sonycowboy]

If your talking sales-wise, and moving units, I would have to disagree with you there.

HW wise, we all know the Wii will rule, and while the triumvrate of Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros, & Metroid will be beyond fantastic, the sales crown for SW will go to Microsoft IMO. Halo 3, COD 4, Madden, Mass Effect, Bioshock, Assassin's Creed, Guitar Hero, Rock Band, Mercenaries 2 are all going to be quite heavy hitters for the 360. And then you add the HW price drop.

Not necessarily in Canada, of course, which continues to make this off-topic.

 

[Firestorm]

HW wise, we all know the Wii will rule, and while the triumvrate of Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros, & Metroid will be beyond fantastic, the sales crown for SW will go to Microsoft IMO. Halo 3, NHL, COD 4, NHL, Mass Effect, NHL, Bioshock, Assassin's Creed, NHL, Guitar Hero, NHL, Rock Band, NHL, Mercenaries 2 are all going to be quite heavy hitters for the 360. And then you add the HW price drop.

Not necessarily in Canada, of course, which continues to make this off-topic.

There, now it applies to Canada.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

HW wise, we all know the Wii will rule, and while the triumvrate of Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros, & Metroid will be beyond fantastic, the sales crown for SW will go to Microsoft IMO. Halo 3, COD 4, Madden, Mass Effect, Bioshock, Assassin's Creed, Guitar Hero, Rock Band, Mercenaries 2 are all going to be quite heavy hitters for the 360. And then you add the HW price drop.

Not necessarily in Canada, of course, which continues to make this off-topic.

That is very true, when talking about North America sales as a whole this is relevant, but Canada has traditionally taken their own path in the console wars.

 

[Fuzzy]

There, now it applies to Canada.

Before looking for what you changed I already knew. :lol

 

[apujanata]

I'm sure I could get them to sonycowboy at some point. Hang in there, and thanks in advance for being patient.

There will never be enough thanks from me (and us) to you if you managed to do that. I (and we) will wait patiently.

US July NPD:

If the US:Canada ratio of each system for July is the same as that of June, US July NPD will look like this...

[NDS] 562,600
[Wii] 262,400
[PS2] 260,700
[PS3] 227,900
[360] 192,800
[GBA] 125,200
[PSP] 91,300

As you can see, remarkably high DS, PS2, PS3, 360 and GBA. And remarkably low Wii and PSP. Especially PSP. Still, I doubt US NPD will look like this.

If your calculation reflect the actual US July NPD, my prediction rank could be at the bottom. However, I also think it is not likely (at least for Wii to sell only 262,400).

 

[Dahbomb]

PS3 comeback has begun! :lol

 

[_Alkaline_]

lol at next-gen

 

[Parl]

No, we load up before May Two-Four with enough to last us through Labour Day.

What's this Labour Day all about then?

 

[theguy]

There will never be enough thanks from me (and us) to you if you managed to do that. I (and we) will wait patiently.



If your calculation reflect the actual US July NPD, my prediction rank could be at the bottom. However, I also think it is not likely (at least for Wii to sell only 262,400).

Sonycowboy, be sure to remind me the next time we comm. so that I can get these for your readers. No guarantees but I don't think Canada will raise too much of a stink. This is something we don't mind providing on occasion. Folks, remember that we cannot give away the bank but with so many developers on here, I see the value in occasionally providing more than the standard "feed" to gaffers.

 

[plagiarize]

PS3 comeback has begun! :lol

more jumping the gun.

price drops generally cause sale spikes that slow down in following months (i'm not saying sales return to what they were before, i'm just saying that the month of a price drop is almost always bigger than the month after it, barring things like holidays and such).

the PS3 only beat the 360 by a small margin.

the 360 dropped price in August.

it'll be a few months before we find out what effect these price drops have had on the long term sales of the systems.

it's plausible that the ps3 could be on top once everything shakes down for this round of price drops, but less likely than the 360 continuing to outsell it after it's own sales spike cools.

 

[sonycowboy]

more jumping the gun.

price drops generally cause sale spikes that slow down in following months (i'm not saying sales return to what they were before, i'm just saying that the month of a price drop is almost always bigger than the month after it, barring things like holidays and such).

the PS3 only beat the 360 by a small margin.

the 360 dropped price in August.

it'll be a few months before we find out what effect these price drops have had on the long term sales of the systems.

it's plausible that the ps3 could be on top once everything shakes down for this round of price drops, but less likely than the 360 continuing to outsell it after it's own sales spike cools.

With the price drop, a superior Madden, and Bioshock, I think the victory (if it exists) will be very short lived for the PS3. And forget about the rest of the year. The gap is going to widen for the short term. At this point, Sony's going to have to focus on riding out 2007 and having the heavy hitters in early 2008 be truly great.

 

[Square2005]

What's this Labour Day all about then?

It's probably just like the U.S. Labor Day: a three day weekend at the beginning of September. Three day weekends always boost sales...

 

[Fuzzy]

It's probably just like the U.S. Labor Day: a three day weekend at the beginning of September. Three day weekends always boost sales...

This is why you shouldn't post about things you don't know about. Labour Day is when the majority of babies are born in Canada.

 

[Odysseus]

This is why you shouldn't post about things you don't know about. Labour Day is when the majority of babies are born in Canada.

and that's why it's nine months to the day after canadian valentine's day.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Re: Sony comeback

You know that much publicized the Ps3 being number one on Amazon stuff a month ago? It's all but disappeared now while the Wii continues to command the top spot.

Using that as a general trendline, I expect PS3 for August to be 25% less than July's results with September possibly back down under 100k.

 

[Fuzzy]

and that's why it's nine months to the day after canadian valentine's day.

Do I have to smack you down for not knowing what you're talking about also? You're only have right, so many babies are born on Labour Day because of the amount of time after Valentine's Day but your math is off. Pregnancies don't last 9 months in Canada, they're only 7 months (Feb-Sept).

 

[SickBoy]

Wii sales down in canada?

Based entirely on anecdotal evidence and my own personal experience, I think the Wii is slowing down faster in Canada than the U.S... I keep hearing it's still nigh-impossible to find in the States, while I've seen them countless times now on store shelves here.

I'm sure they still come in and sell out, but I'm guessing it happens over the course of hours/days rather than a morning. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo has eased supply a little bit to get more into retail in the U.S.

 

[donny2112]

I'm sure they still come in and sell out, but I'm guessing it happens over the course of hours/days rather than a morning.

That's how it is in the U.S. Stock is lasting for a couple of days if the shipment was during the week. Weekend shipments still get people lining up for them and sell out within the day, though.

 

[sonycowboy]

That's how it is in the U.S. Stock is lasting for a couple of days if the shipment was during the week. Weekend shipments still get people lining up for them and sell out within the day, though.

I still haven't seen one on shelves since the holidays. And I look. Not constantly but whenever I'm in stores, which is quite often.