360 -> 50 mil worldwide by 2011.
I'll stand by that, despite the slow start out of the gates. Microsoft is doing too many things right (and some wrong) to not improve on Xbox's sales by a significant margin. The year head-start, the price advantage, the XBL advantage, strong software support, etc. The early launch in Japan with weak software and weak advertising was idiotic and the Euro marketing has been crap so far as well, but it's not too late to improve things.
I think in Europe, the Xbox's life was way too short and people remember that, so they want solid proof this time that Microsoft is really committed before joining the party, so to speak. They also remember the quick price drops last time, so there's probably a bunch of people thinking it's going to happen again. The soccer exclusivity was a brilliant move, but they can't stop there. They have to position 360 as a cheaper, yet viable alternative to the hard-to-find PS3 this holiday season. They *can* certainly achieve this, but they've gotta be smarter about it.
In Japan, it's not over for 360 yet either, imo. They can still carve out a respectable niche for the hardcore and at least provide a platform for some quirky japanese games and give more japanese developers a reason to bring their games over so it can spread to a wider western audience. XBL should help as well, especially with games like Lumines and Karaoke Revolution (where downloadable content makes sense).