If the Steam Deck is a Porsche, then so was the PSP back in the day.
I disagree. PSP launched at $249.99. If it started at $399 like Steam Deck does for the most stripped version and just played PC games, the result would be the same. A product that would not eat into Nintendo's base in any way.
Let‘s imagine if Nintendo hadn’t released the DS at the same time as the PSP, but had instead decided to wait a couple more years, since the GBA was still selling very well. Do you think the PSP wouldn‘t have taken a significant chunk out of the handheld market, despite it‘s much higher price? It did pretty well anyway, despite having to compete with the phenomenon that was the DS, but I’m pretty sure without the DS around during its first couple of years it would‘ve done even better.
I think that both Nintendo and Sony expanded the portable market at this time. In other words, not every sale was a one taken away from the other. I think a lot of gamers who had a PSP but no Game Boy were Playstation players who would not have gotten a GB anyway. I also think many portable addicts got both. Of course, all this is irrelevant as I don't think the PSP is a great analogy to the Steam Deck. I also don't think Nintendo released it as a direct response to PSP. The original DS was a Frankenstein monstrosity and that's how Nintendo described it at the time, an experiment. It didn't look like something you would put out to fight the PSP. It was not expected or intended to be a replacement for the supremely successful Game Boy brand, but its runaway success led to it being the successor to the GB and the famed Lite variant that, in my opinion, actually was intended to fight PSP with some style points.
What ultimately prevented the DS from sharing the fate of the N64 and Gamecube and allowed it to dominate were it’s unique features, and games that used those features – an advantage that the Switch 2 most likely won‘t have, unless Nintendo decides to do something crazy again.
We're getting into conjecture and opinion here. Every Nintendo portable system has sold gangbusters and you're telling me the "only reason" DS didn't fail as hard as Gamecube is...its unique features? If it had just been Game Boy DX instead and was only $120, how do we know it wouldn't have sold as well as the last GB, or who knows, even more than the DS did? We really don't know, we never will, it's all speculation. There are many plausible outcomes here.
The Switch 2 will probably just be a more powerful Switch, and thus not that much different from the Deck. Under these circumstances, it might be dangerous for Nintendo to wait too long and allow the Deck to build up a large install base. The Deck‘s base will probably be mostly made up of enthusiasts (especially at first), but they are the ones who buy the most games, and are willing to accept higher prices for hardware than other consumers.
Nintendo wants enthusiast money, but they will not sacrifice casual money to get it. Nintendo is first and foremost a place to play Mario Kart. At full price. Because people are clamoring to play their exclusive games. Best IP in gaming + hardware price point casuals can swallow = market on a different planet than Steam Deck.
Let's say Steam Deck builds up its install base. Nintendo would feel the same way about those gamers as they did about those playing on PC instead of Wii. Open platforms have always been there, you still need to pay the Yakuza for Smash.
I simply don't see Deck taking many sales away from Switch. What few it does take away, Nintendo doesn't care. For every 1 of them, there are 100,000 kids bugging mom for Pokemon, Kart, Zelda, etc. I'm sorry but the Deck is a drop in a piss bucket to Nintendo and always will be.
