gokurho
Member
Summary by chatGPT
1. PS5’s Temporary Success and Long-term Shortcomings
In Q3, the PS5 experienced a temporary boost in sales?driven by price cuts, the introduction of the PS5 Pro, and seasonal factors. However, it ultimately fell short of the initial long-term goal of surpassing the PS4, raising concerns about its sustainable growth.
2. Nintendo’s Strategic Shift and Bold Bet on Switch2
In response to underwhelming Switch hardware performance in Q3, Nintendo is making a bold pivot toward the upcoming Switch2. With proactive steps already underway?such as securing parts and ramping up production capacity?Nintendo aims to capture market share by launching a large supply ahead of the traditional year-end sales cycle.
3. Market Expectations and Broader Industry Impact
Investors and analysts are watching closely not only the short-term numbers but also Nintendo’s potential for breakthrough growth with Switch2. If Switch2 can make a significant market impact right at launch, it could sharply contrast with the PS5’s long-term shortcomings, positioning Nintendo favorably in the next-generation console market.
Conclusion
While the PS5 managed to secure a temporary sales boost, its inability to meet its long-term objectives has cast doubt on its sustained success. In contrast, Nintendo’s decisive move toward Switch2?with strong preparations in parts procurement and production?signals a potential industry game-changer. If Switch2 succeeds at launch, it may not only redefine Nintendo’s future but also shift the entire dynamics of the console market.

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translated by Deepl
The PlayStation 5's sales of 9.5 million units are an outstanding achievement, far exceeding my expectations. However, reversing the decline in momentum remains extremely difficult.
With that in mind, the factors behind the 9.5 million units sold are attributed to:
1.The impact of price reductions
2.The effect of the PS5 Pro launch
3.Seasonal demand
During the earnings call, there was no mention of a full-year sales forecast for the PS5. However, based on my inquiries, it seems they have made some upward revisions. The fourth quarter is also expected to benefit from the release of Monster Hunter Wilds, and Toyo Securities has revised its annual forecast upward to 18.5 million units. However, this still represents a decline compared to the previous year's results.
I deeply regret missing my initial forecast. However, despite the strong sales figures, the PS5 has still not surpassed the PS4. Back when Nintendo failed to meet its second-year target of 20 million Switch units, the media was critical, and this is occasionally brought up even today.
The PS5 was committed to surpassing the PS4 by its fourth year. Since it has failed to do so, not criticizing this outcome would be strange.
Sony Group has commented that PS5 sales are on par with the PS4 despite not implementing price cuts (or even increasing prices). However, this statement overlooks the fact that they implemented a temporary price cut during the holiday season and does not account for inflation, making it somewhat inaccurate. It was none other than former CEO Jim Ryan who made the commitment that the PS5 would surpass the PS4.
Failing to meet a target is generally considered a failure by society, isn't it?
I believe that Nintendo plans to overwhelm PlayStation by supplying a massive amount of Switch 2 units at launch, creating a situation where Sony cannot catch up. They likely intend to settle the battle for this generation (against the PS6) from the very start.
Toyo Securities expects the Switch 2 to launch in July 2025, forecasting sales of 6 million units for the second quarter of the 2025 fiscal year (July–September). However, given the scale of Nintendo's preparations, this number might actually be too low. If the actual figure exceeds 6 million units, it would be an unprecedented volume.
No gaming console has ever shipped such numbers, even during the holiday season. Yet, Nintendo is seemingly aiming for an initial launch that will completely overshadow the PS5—outside of the peak sales period. When I spoke with Nintendo, they appeared cautious but confident in their approach. If successful, this could completely shatter the long-standing industry myth that consoles must launch during the holiday season to succeed.
I believe that the plan to supply a massive number of Switch 2 units at launch is worth pursuing.
If successful, Nintendo should be able to move away from a business strategy that 'leaves luck to heaven.
(This statement references the origin of Nintendo's company name, 任天堂, which is often interpreted as 'leave luck to heaven.)

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