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Game over? Industry suffers slowdown after decades-long winning streak — Financial Times

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
This is where I fail business 101. If all the employees are getting paid, including some big compensation for the those at the top, I don't see where the never ending push for more and more dollars comes from. Must be the pressure from the stock holders.

The graph in the OP shows 2023 just slightly off peak and still way higher than just 4 or 5 years ago. Doesn't seem like they need to make a huge amount of changes just because they have started to bump the ceiling.
Regarding investors, the perfect storm is a combo of something like this:

- Increasing sales
- Increasing profits
- Increasing profit margin (%)
- Increasing market share
- Costs are kept in check (ie. SG&A and marketing costs % are the same as last year or lower which is good. The last thing investors want to see is overhead and advertising going from 15% of sales to lets say 25% of sales)

A company can grow all of these things going small. Or they can grow it going big. The main caveat is if you go big, the company is setting itself up for bigger and bigger and bigger expectations going forward. Nobody wants to see things retract. Investors like smooth sailing up. They take it if it's a rocket ride up too, but then they expect the rocket ride to keep going.

So thats why for games and movies, if they want to go large budget to get big sales and profits that's fine. But the key thing you better be able to handle doing it bigger and bigger next time and the game after that. The companies are setting themselves up for impossible to achieve performance in the future.

In business every company wants to grow sales and profits where everyone is happy. Traditional companies have an advantage that if the year is coming in great, we can sometimes purposely turn off the taps and shut down shipments or tell retailers to order in January. Doing this smooths out performance because if youre doing good already, why blow out the number even more with giant December shipments? Delay some of that to January and get the year off on a good foot. In gaming, everything is so skewed to Xmas sales and digital sales, they cant do that tactic. They arent going to shut down sales in December or prevent digital orders.
 
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IAmRei

Member
Been saying this for years, a majority of developers should of stuck with double A games or eithin 360/ps3 era budget, the saddest thing is its totally possible, we have had great mid budget games such as control, hellblade (the dmc maker game forgot what its called) a whole dark souls trilogy plus sekiro and even plague tales 1 and 2 but instead ceos crunch staff to make shitty games, even bladursgate 3 a game with a modest 120 million is doing well, instead were seeing games being made well over 160 million budget with impossible returns, look ubisoft that doesnt have a scooby of what to do and its ashame because they employ thousands of people which right not could be making a unique indie game or something decent on a smaller budget
right, i see lotta games, which is not AAA often left or ignored by most people, and yet they still have okay sales. i mean, if we can make small games which is could be promoted well, and getting lot of interesting sales, although far beyond 10 million sales each, and make it ten, i think we can do 10 million without waiting too long such as AAA production (which often too long because the scope of the project). they ddont need to be indie, just smaller scale, safe from fail too much. yet if it hits, they could sustain lot of higher production in other divisions.
 

IAmRei

Member
Where does the rising costs even come from at this point ?

Video games production scale reached its peak 6 or 7 years ago. If it takes longer and more people to develop a game it's because they suck at it, i don't see other objective reasons, i'm not trolling. Or because wages are going up in the industry i don't know.

And why are they in a hurry to release new hardware, if they don't make money on hardware, if it's bothersome for studios to work on many different supports. Just stop this nonsense, visuals are improving at a very slow pace anyway, and games are releasing across generations of hardware. And yet, i feel the console space is leaning towards a PC market approach of hardware, why is that ?
marketing cost is not cheap
graphics are also expensive, imagine lot of models texture animations and concept art is not below $300 each.
feature, more features are more time and spending
network also an issue even for bigger company if not done right

i'm also game developer, although indie and very small. even for small 3d games, i will still need one year, $250k, and several teams if i dont have any experienced people, it would be more. and mostly $250 aint small for me.
but it wont be an issue at all for big studios.

and the funny thing is : yeah, why they only pushed hardware. because all we need actually not always hardware.
we need more games, even smaller but still meaningful and fun. and if it sale well, it might not be the same with AAA sales, but still can contribute to support other divisions.
 

WitchHunter

Banned
Well then continue to be flummoxed as to why AAA single player games are getting longer and longer rather than shorter and shorter.
COD MW had a 6 hour long campaign and it sold how many units? Half life around 12 hours, hl2 20 hours or so and sold how many units? And these were old times, when influencers, streamers and the like didn't exist at all. They create longer AAA titles, but the completion rate is terrible. If 20% of the player base complete a game, that's a big exclamation mark, most of the players do not even get to half of the content, they abandon the game. Nope, something is amiss.
 

Aaron Olive

Member
Meh... The narrative next year will be we're saved!
"Gaming industry sees skyrocket sales as consoles go flying off the shelves to play GTA 6."
Grand-Theft-Auto-VI-Trailer-1.00_00_56_04.Still046.jpg

high-resolution-screenshots-from-gta-vi-trailer-v0-1spo2s6wqe4c1.png



f6d90211-e59c-49b5-a863-a90a756c3b82_text.gif
 

Men_in_Boxes

Snake Oil Salesman
COD MW had a 6 hour long campaign and it sold how many units? Half life around 12 hours, hl2 20 hours or so and sold how many units? And these were old times, when influencers, streamers and the like didn't exist at all. They create longer AAA titles, but the completion rate is terrible. If 20% of the player base complete a game, that's a big exclamation mark, most of the players do not even get to half of the content, they abandon the game. Nope, something is amiss.

Publishers don't give a **** about completion rate. All they care about is buy rate.
 

Three

Member
looks to me more like there was an unusual bump in 2020/2021 (most likely due to the pandemic) and we are now back to normal growth (it may be slowing slightly, but its still currently growing)
I think the pandemic bump delayed the decline/flatline but it was happening anyway.
 

mdkirby

Gold Member
Maybe stop taking successful single player studios, whose past releases have sold huge numbers and been profitable, to then have them spend a decade and hundreds of millions making GAAS failures. We’ve seen it with Avengers, Anthem, Suicide squad. Those could have been new mass effects (or rather have not taken resources from andromeda leaving it a directionless, broken mess), a new Batman, a new deus ex. Yeah none of them print money like Fortnite, but even deus ex 1&2, the weakens in sales of those 3, yielded decent profits and 12 mil sales.

It kinda feels like crypto. Publishers/devs see “holyshit, u seen the money some people made on bitcoin? Let’s throw a load of our cash at some alt coins and we might see the same returns!” Then usually ended up losing all their money 🤷‍♂️

All that said, ai will drive down dev costs and/or turnaround in the coming years, which will help get budgets under control, or allow games to go from concept to release in 2-3yr instead of 6 (by which point market trends may well have turned against your game)
 

midnightAI

Member
I think the pandemic bump delayed the decline/flatline but it was happening anyway.
Well I think they need longer to assess it, we get these consoles are dying pieces every so often due to individual years not being quite as strong as expected.

There are many reasons they aren't as strong this year, one of the console manufacturers has dropped off massively due to various reasons (expected high profile games flopping, mainly a sub machine so no sales other than sub cost, split console strategy). And one of the three is also coming to the end of its console cycle. It is also expected that new hardware is coming from all three in the near future meaning some will have a wait and see approach. And shitty economic growth globally with high prices for everything (such as food, fuel, housing), people are watching their wallets more than ever (I haven't bought anywhere near as many games this past year, not because I don't want to but because I'd rather spend more cautiously and I certainly won't be alone in that). And despite all that there is still growth.
 

Shut0wen

Banned
right, i see lotta games, which is not AAA often left or ignored by most people, and yet they still have okay sales. i mean, if we can make small games which is could be promoted well, and getting lot of interesting sales, although far beyond 10 million sales each, and make it ten, i think we can do 10 million without waiting too long such as AAA production (which often too long because the scope of the project). they ddont need to be indie, just smaller scale, safe from fail too much. yet if it hits, they could sustain lot of higher production in other divisions.
Exactly, people forget studios like larian, cdpr and spiders started off small and games grew in scale, like spiders imo is the next studio to breakout because all there games are small without risk of loss, same with justnod
 

Fake

Member
Let's go back to the era of the 360 when you had the likes of Blur, Top Spin tennis, Alpha Protocol, instead of countless remakes of Last of Us...

The remote ideia of people defending the remake/remaster of TLOUS instead of all those gems is utterly disgraceful.
 
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diffusionx

Gold Member
Ubisoft spent $200 million at least on Skull & Bones, and it is a worse game than Black Flag, which I could buy right now and start playing on my PS5 for $8.99. Something is seriously wrong with the operations of these studios and customers are smart enough to understand it. The entire entertainment industry is dealing with some variation of this.

This is where I fail business 101. If all the employees are getting paid, including some big compensation for the those at the top, I don't see where the never ending push for more and more dollars comes from. Must be the pressure from the stock holders.

The graph in the OP shows 2023 just slightly off peak and still way higher than just 4 or 5 years ago. Doesn't seem like they need to make a huge amount of changes just because they have started to bump the ceiling.

The key concept here is opportunity cost. If I am putting my money into something, it means I am not putting my money into everything else. So if I put my money into vidya company A expecting a return, and it's not growing, but vidya company B is doing that, then the obvious question is what is B doing that A isn't. In the long run this is one of the main drivers of growth across the entire economy.

Let's go back to the era of the 360 when you had the likes of Blur, Top Spin tennis, Alpha Protocol, instead of countless remakes of Last of Us...

As much as I liked those games, really, they didn't sell and they didn't drive growth. If anything the market for these lower-end games is much better today than it was back then.
 
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Regarding investors, the perfect storm is a combo of something like this:

- Increasing sales
- Increasing profits
- Increasing profit margin (%)
- Increasing market share
- Costs are kept in check (ie. SG&A and marketing costs % are the same as last year or lower which is good. The last thing investors want to see is overhead and advertising going from 15% of sales to lets say 25% of sales)

A company can grow all of these things going small. Or they can grow it going big. The main caveat is if you go big, the company is setting itself up for bigger and bigger and bigger expectations going forward. Nobody wants to see things retract. Investors like smooth sailing up. They take it if it's a rocket ride up too, but then they expect the rocket ride to keep going.

So thats why for games and movies, if they want to go large budget to get big sales and profits that's fine. But the key thing you better be able to handle doing it bigger and bigger next time and the game after that. The companies are setting themselves up for impossible to achieve performance in the future.

In business every company wants to grow sales and profits where everyone is happy. Traditional companies have an advantage that if the year is coming in great, we can sometimes purposely turn off the taps and shut down shipments or tell retailers to order in January. Doing this smooths out performance because if youre doing good already, why blow out the number even more with giant December shipments? Delay some of that to January and get the year off on a good foot. In gaming, everything is so skewed to Xmas sales and digital sales, they cant do that tactic. They arent going to shut down sales in December or prevent digital orders.

The key concept here is opportunity cost. If I am putting my money into something, it means I am not putting my money into everything else. So if I put my money into vidya company A expecting a return, and it's not growing, but vidya company B is doing that, then the obvious question is what is B doing that A isn't. In the long run this is one of the main drivers of growth across the entire economy.

The fact that most large corporations are built around investors and the stock market does make that all make sense. I can see where some of the independent studios that aren't public don't have nearly as much pressure in that area.
 

SantaC

Member
those games back then had AA production values now. Something like Metal Gear Solid 2 with its production values could easily be accomplished by a modern AA studio with some mocap and talented VAs, from a technical standpoint.

what AAA studios are working on today are far more complex and grandiose to an unsustainable extent.
You have to adjust to the times. They were AAA at the time working on a difficult emotion engine with bad documentation
 
The movie and game industry is in a downward spiral.
I wonder why 🤔
Well I think downward spiral is hyperbolic, stagnated is more accurate perhaps

Movies it’s a content issue. They’re not putting shit in theaters anyone wants to see en mass. When they do, like top gun, Spider-Man, Batman, avatar, barbie, Mario they do well but they’re so few and far in between all the garbage. These studios seriously look you in the face and expect you to go to out to the theater for madam web and argylle

Gaming it’s a cost issue. These suits have sterilized and watered down gaming for the lowest common denominator so much all that’s left are the hyper casual games like sports and cod which aren’t growing sales wise. (They have a cap of about 30M copies sold since MW3 hit that over 10 years ago) and ginormous 300,400,500M dollar games that take eons to finish and release. A goddamn half decade or more. That’s simply absurd and unsustainable. That’s why you see those games released during 2007-2015 YouTube videos and posts and it’s just banger after banger compared to the dry arid wasteland of big quality releases now
 
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Aaron Olive

Member
I don't get it how would that save anyone but Rockstar?

And I pity the games that are released in the same month as GTA. They'll be buried.
Game Business for dummies 101

If I made a box 📦 sold it to market and you came to me and said Hey! I want to make a hit game on your box and I said ok but I get a 30% cut of every game you sold, would I not make money??💰 in turn increasing the sales of my box and accessories to my box??📦
 
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midnightAI

Member
The remote ideia of people defending the remake/remaster of TLOUS instead of all those gems is utterly disgraceful.
Naughty Dog made Blur, Top Spin Tennis and Alpha Protocol?

(basically, you can have both, it is up to other companies to make them you cant put this solely down to Naughty Dog, not everything is Naughty Dogs fault, who are working on their own new IP by the way)
 
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midnightAI

Member
WTF is that supposed to mean lmao.
Just replying to your comment
The remote ideia of people defending the remake/remaster of TLOUS instead of all those gems is utterly disgraceful.
I dont think Naughty Dog can affect whether 'those gems' are made so why is it disgraceful to defend a remake/remaster of TLoU? I actually think this new TLoU 2 is a great idea, a tenner for levels no-one would otherwise see, a new rogue like mode and improved graphics in the original game, not bad if you ask me. Am I now a disgrace because I didn't mention Top Spin Tennis or Blur?

(Edit: and I think the purpose of Naughty Dog doing this is the very thing that is being mentioned by the CEO, its something that can be knocked out quicker and make money while they are working on their new game and I dont have a problem with that, although I would prefer something like a new Jak and Daxter, or even just Daxterm a remake of the PSP game, that would take longer to make, and fingers crossed could still be on the cards)
 
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Fake

Member
Just replying to your comment

I dont think Naughty Dog can affect whether 'those gems' are made so why is it disgraceful to defend a remake/remaster of TLoU? I actually think this new TLoU 2 is a great idea, a tenner for levels no-one would otherwise see, a new rogue like mode and improved graphics in the original game, not bad if you ask me. Am I now a disgrace because I didn't mention Top Spin Tennis or Blur?

(Edit: and I think the purpose of Naughty Dog doing this is the very thing that is being mentioned by the CEO, its something that can be knocked out quicker and make money while they are working on their new game and I dont have a problem with that, although I would prefer something like a new Jak and Daxter, or even just Daxterm a remake of the PSP game, that would take longer to make, and fingers crossed could still be on the cards)

This have nothing to do with ND at all.

Guerrila is doing a remake of Horizon Zero Dawn mind you, and yes we have fanboys defending this kinda of move.

Unless proved wrong, those IPs are dead for good.
 

Miyazaki’s Slave

Gold Member
I thought about it. What we could end up with might be worse, but TBH it’s a chance I am willing to take.
I am fine with a digital only future…but I do worry about the content in said future.

I have already stopped watch tv and movies and as acquisitions and mergers continue, I think the quality of our content is going to take a death spiral.

But, to be fair, I’m old and outside of any consumer group publishers would give to farts about.

🥂here’s to 700 more Fortnite seasons
 
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StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
The fact that most large corporations are built around investors and the stock market does make that all make sense. I can see where some of the independent studios that aren't public don't have nearly as much pressure in that area.
Private companies have the luxury of choice.

The company can still be run by ballbusters hitting monthly and quarterly targets. I've always worked at big public places so I know the drill. But it seems every buddy who works at similar private companies are hit and miss. Some are ballbusters. But some are chill as fuck. As long as the founders are happy enough with the financials, it's good enough, there's no pressure and the family founders are golfing half the time. One buddy says he doesnt even get formal targets. His target is verbal like.... "just try to at least be as good as last year". So basically his goal is zero growth. And the execs are good enough for that.

I've even asked him to get me a job there and I'll tidy up all the numbers making the place even more profitable. He says dont bother because they wont hire someone like you. They are old school and dont want bean counters and target setters making it too corporately pissing people off. They are happy humming along modestly with zero corporate culture pressure.

For the ones that do have major targets to reach, instead of being monthly/quarterly, there's more lax. It's an annual target. So some sales guys who worked in private sector will say ya there's a target to hit. Bu as long as you can pull it off in Q4 thats good enough. Not saying it's easy for a sales guy to jam it all in the final quarter, but it's doable. Typical public companies with quarterly wall street numbers to hit dont go for that shit. You got to be consistent and trying to hit numbers consistently.
 
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midnightAI

Member
This have nothing to do with ND at all.

Guerrila is doing a remake of Horizon Zero Dawn mind you, and yes we have fanboys defending this kinda of move.

Unless proved wrong, those IPs are dead for good.
Well, for one, we don't know that HZD is actually happening, sure, there are leaks but nothing concrete... Yet. That one I couldn't defend, it has a PC port already and Decima has already been updated for next gen use looking at Burning Shores DLC and DS2.

But TLoU2 remaster I do understand, it was getting a PC version with all the enhancements that come with next gen + additional modes, levels etc. so why not cash in with a cheap upgrade.
 

Buggy Loop

Member
Why so grim? Games like BG3 and palworld will continue to pop up every once in a while..

Bunch of managers have their panties in a twist because they probably spent so much marketing research to see if purple hair "Diversity & Inclusion" is a factor and they're flabbergasted when the GOTY doesn't go to them.
On top of sniffing NFT anti-consumer and poor Gaas practices. Sucks for the employees sucked into this mess but at the same time, you can tell your boss to fuck off. Ubisoft basically was kneecaped by the above and now the teams that were managed by Square-Enix and then sold off to Embracer group with those same goals are facing extinction.

It'll balance out, for the better.
 

Fabieter

Member
I love valve but damn i think they are partly responsible for a slowdown. We dont have numbers for their revenue and profits but compared to other pubs and platformholder they are rwally small and dont invest in games alot which means gaben is probably taking alot of the profit out of the conpany. Wish valve would do more than maintaining their store and cash in from other devs who do the risky parts.
 

StreetsofBeige

Gold Member
Bunch of managers have their panties in a twist because they probably spent so much marketing research to see if purple hair "Diversity & Inclusion" is a factor and they're flabbergasted when the GOTY doesn't go to them.
On top of sniffing NFT anti-consumer and poor Gaas practices. Sucks for the employees sucked into this mess but at the same time, you can tell your boss to fuck off. Ubisoft basically was kneecaped by the above and now the teams that were managed by Square-Enix and then sold off to Embracer group with those same goals are facing extinction.

It'll balance out, for the better.
And thats the problem with creative industries. Once you get some weird people twisting politics into the final product youre going to get issues eventually.

Other industries arent like that. Sure, most big companies will promote on their careers page they are all about DEI and they'll do their one-month rainbow logo on Linkedin when it's pride month. But the final products are typically use marketing that is generically aimed at the buying group, and it'll likely have little/zero politics or weird GAAS kind of nickel and diming. No doubt, the car dealership will try to sell you rust protection and extended warranty, but generally most non-gaming and non-creative industries arent so laden with blatant DEI or GAAS/NFT stuff.

It's funny because nothing stops a furniture maker, lawn mower manufacturer, or milk bottler from changing their TV ads and message to be about LBGT mowing lawns to buy Honda mowers or Crate & Barrel doing marketing to sell living room gear by having gay people eating dinner and sending the purchaser endless nickel and diming adds ons like how about buying more seats, a coffee table and a night stand too. All these companies could if they wanted to, but they all seem to know when to cut the cord on "too much politics and upselling". But gaming is an industry where it runs wild.

Just look around your home and out of all the stuff you own how many products are heavy into politics, are made by social media loudmouths or GAAS kind of selling? Probably hardly any. But your game library will definitely be one of them.
 
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Audiophile

Member
I don't get it how would that save anyone but Rockstar?

And I pity the games that are released in the same month as GTA. They'll be buried.

Given that it's probably going to be on of the biggest entertainment launches ever, I suspect everything that isn't COD or a sports title will be avoiding that release window like a plague.

Wouldn't be surprised if pretty much everyone targeting 2025 is waiting for the official release and there'll end up being a solid 45-60 day lull either side of it.
 

Audiophile

Member
More AA games. Less cost. Also, make PSN games again. But fun ones. 😅
Yup, Super Stardust HD/Ultra had been in rotation for 16yrs. Bought SSDHD in 2007 on my OG PS3 and I was playing the SSDUltra version regularly on PS4/PS5 up til I sold my PS5 last year; and I'll be playing it again when I get a Pro.

Resogun, Dead Nation & Nex Machina were all great too. Then there's thatgamecompany's fl0W, Flower & Journey.

When that whole PSN mini game push started I was downloading a new small title every 3-4mths. Filled those gaps between AA & AAA titles; and some went on to become staples in my library such as SSHD.
 
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Fake

Member
Well, for one, we don't know that HZD is actually happening, sure, there are leaks but nothing concrete... Yet. That one I couldn't defend, it has a PC port already and Decima has already been updated for next gen use looking at Burning Shores DLC and DS2.

But TLoU2 remaster I do understand, it was getting a PC version with all the enhancements that come with next gen + additional modes, levels etc. so why not cash in with a cheap upgrade.

Quite sure is real. The source is confirmed by Tom Henderson with have one of the most credential in leaks/rumors departament.
To the Horizon multiplayer game that was confirmed, I guess he can meet the same fate as the TLOUS factions.


And again, I not against remaster, but remastering a bloody new game is stupid to the maximum level. Get a 10~20 years old game and do something about, but we are remasting 1~2 years game with is absoluty insane. Huge waste of resources and man power.
 
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Mobilemofo

Member
Yup, Super Stardust HD/Ultra had been in rotation for 16yrs. Bought SSDHD in 2007 on my OG PS3 and I was playing the SSDUltra version regularly on PS4/PS5 up til I sold my PS5 last year; and I'll be playing it again when I get a Pro.

Resogun, Dead Nation & Nex Machina were all great too. Then there's thatgamecompany's fl0W, Flower & Journey.

When that whole PSN mini game push started I was downloading a new small title every 3-4mths. Filled those gaps between AA & AAA titles; and some went on to become staples in my library such as SSHD.
I have the "house marque" collection . I enjoyed them all.
 

Red5

Member
Millions poured into several failed GAAS projects all the way since the infamous Anthem by Bioware, every major AAA publishers chasing their own golden Goose dream, instead of investing that money into established franchises or new ones like Mass Effect.
 

FoxMcChief

Gold Member
Maybe if dipshit, trend-chasing CEO's weren't regularly destroying their own companies with demonstrably stupid anti-consumer business practices, industry might be healthier. People are sick of the bullshit. See: Palworld, Helldivers, etc...
Well said.
 

Aaron Olive

Member
Quite sure is real. The source is confirmed by Tom Henderson with have one of the most credential in leaks/rumors departament.
To the Horizon multiplayer game that was confirmed, I guess he can meet the same fate as the TLOUS factions.


And again, I not against remaster, but remastering a bloody new game is stupid to the maximum level. Get a 10~20 years old game and do something about, but we are remasting 1~2 years game with is absoluty insane. Huge waste of resources and man power.

I believe that HZD is getting it’s remastered treatment because it is being connected to a Movie or TV franchise like the rest of their games….

This is what has been happening already.

Until Dawn
Death Stranding
TLOU
GOW
Uncharted

Physint for PS6
 
This is where I fail business 101. If all the employees are getting paid, including some big compensation for the those at the top, I don't see where the never ending push for more and more dollars comes from. Must be the pressure from the stock holders.

The graph in the OP shows 2023 just slightly off peak and still way higher than just 4 or 5 years ago. Doesn't seem like they need to make a huge amount of changes just because they have started to bump the ceiling.
1st of all, all you see is the revenue, you haven't seen the cost. So what if the cost to generate that revenue was based on projected growth?
Let's say in 2018, the revenue was 100 Billion (hypothetical), based on spending $80 Billion with a $20 billion profit (or 25%), now projecting 5% growth a year, so by 2023, you are projecting revenue to be 25% more, at $125 Billion, and at the same margin you spend 80% of that, which is $100 billion, but revenue was flat and came in at $100 billion, so now instead of at 25% profit, you are just breaking even.
And break even is losing money, because the opportunity cost of that $100 billion you spent. You could have just bought US treasuries at 5% interest and generated $5 Billion in profits, you could have bought an S&P 500 index fund and generated 23% returns at $23 Billion in 2023. So your investors who gave their money to you instead of doing one of those thing are pissed.
 
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