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[RetroGamingUK]

At this point I think these 3 brands are too big to fail, the main reason…

Digital Libraries

There’s always been brand loyalty in gaming, I remember the Nintendo vs Sega playground arguments. However now more than ever people are sticking with a brand, not because of sheer fanboyism, but because of huge investments in building digital libraries making customers feel confined to walled gardens. This, for me, is making it seem that it’s now almost impossible for anyone else to come along and be a serious challenger in the market.

I can foresee, in decades down the line, the below still dominate…

Steam
Online MAU - 132m
Hardware - HUGE

The oldest online ecosystem going all the way back to 2003, they’re the dominant PC storefront despite competition from the likes of Epic. Lack studios and IP is their only issue. With Microsoft’s misfortunes of late, there’s an opportunity for them to get a small foothold in the console space too, as they’ve done with SteamDeck.



PlayStation
Online MAU - 116m
Hardware - 180m (PS4 + PS5)

No company has managed to be successful in every console generation other than Sony, they effectively killed Sega in one go and only the 360 ever challenged them. Despite slower games output PS5 is as successful as PS4 was. At this point I don’t even think an Xbox One level fucked up would dent marketshare.



Nintendo
Online MAU - unknown
Hardware - 144m (Switch)

Dominant in handheld gaming since the late 80s with every system being a success. The only other system to be successful in this category was the PSP (82m sold) and Nintendo still beat it handsomely. With Switch 2 following a simple brand sequence and backwards compatibility.



Xbox
Online MAU - 120m (disputed both ways)
Hardware - estimated 80m (One + Series)

Not included in the thread title because Im not sure dominance would be the right word for them. Despite the Xbox One reveal fuck up, despite PC day one, despite starting to go 3rd party, despite Microsoft they’ve still managed to sell nearly 30 million Series consoles. I know people who still buy Xbox and moan about it because it’s what they’ve always done. A great example of brand loyalty and the stickiness of libraries.


From here on any potential challenger like Samsung or Tencent would have to build or buy dev studios, get third parties onboard and compete with companies where people have spent hundreds (even thousands) and game libraries that they can’t trade or sell.


What about streaming? Well any competitor is starting from scratch against these big boys.

What about mobile? The absolute failure of the likes of Resident Evil and Death Stranding on iPhone have proved that mobile gamers have been conditioned to not buy games.


What do you guys think, are the top 3 now as invulnerable as Pepsi vs Coke or iOS vs Android?

 

[Jaybe]

Nice write up and agree with leaving Xbox off. Here’s the oddity with their Game Pass strategy. I bought a launch Series X and 3 years of Game Pass. Got a couple physical games as gifts and bought Hogwarts Legacy digitally. Bought nothing else. Got disappointed in the first party software, mismanagement, and strategy from them, so sold the console. It was easy to do as effectively, I only had one purchase still tied to the digital library ecosystem. Net, Xbox’s Game Pass being a rental service made it very easy to leave the platform behind which is kind of the opposite of what most platforms aim to achieve (stickiness or friction when leaving).

 

[HogIsland]

It's a big factor, but it's not as decisive as more basic things. Like you combine PS4 and PS5 numbers, but the PS4 will be obsolete some day soon. The console model of resetting the install base every generation is not viable. Ultimately PC will win out over Playstation and Nintendo because it's one big global install base that never goes obsolete.

 

[Robb]

Maybe, but I definitely don’t see it with Nintendo personally. I don’t trust them at all with digital software. There’s been too many “re-starts”.

I’d imagine that’s one reason physical software is big on their systems.

 

[RagnarokIV]

I don't trust anyone other than Valve with a digital library.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

When I sold my 360 and physical games it was an easy decision and I never looked back. I’d only spent a bit on some Live Arcade games, it wasn’t a huge investment at all.

Phil Spencer was 100% right when he said they lost the worst generation with Xbox One which is where people started to buy full price games en-masse. But the GamePass model just made it 10x worse.

Another thing to take into account, Trophies and Achievements, it’s weird but sometimes I look at my Trophy score going back nearly 2 decades and think wouldn’t it feel strange if I just switched to a different platform and started from scratch.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

Agreed OP. Digital libraries are a big part of why these companies keep players in their ecosystems. Phil Spencer admitted this himself:
https://fortune.com/2023/05/05/micr...le-war-lost-sony-playstation-nintendo-switch/

That's why I feel that Game Pass was awesome for consumers, but a mistake for the company in the long run. But now you can see some of the attempted course correction.

 

[pudel]

Ultimately PC will win out over Playstation and Nintendo because it's one big global install base that never goes obsolete.

Ubisofts "the crew" went obsolete quite easily.

And thats why I hate all this walled gardens. Its just a snap and your game is gone. Over all stores I prefer gog.com the most. Its maximum freedom..in case of "danger" you could just download your library. But yeah, its hard to convince the industry to go more that direction....unfortunately.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

It's a big factor, but imo it's not as decisive as more basic things. Like you combine PS4 and PS5 numbers, but the PS4 will be obsolete some day soon. The console model of resetting the install base every generation is not viable. Ultimately PC will win out over Playstation and Nintendo because it's one big global install base that never goes obsolete.

There is no resetting the base every generation now. Backwards compatibility is a huge factor in choosing a new console, even more so now it’s digital.

The days where Sega can fuck up with the Saturn and Sony just take their playerbase with PlayStation seem to be over.

 

[Damigos]

Xbox was first, regarding online libraries and digital stores, but once again finished last

 

[HogIsland]

Ubisofts "the crew" went obsolete quite easily.

And thats why I hate all this walled gardens. Its just a snap and your game is gone. Over all stores I prefer gog.com the most. Its maximum freedom..in case of "danger" you could just download your library. But yeah, its hard to convince the industry to go more that direction....unfortunately.

:| where did I say that every game is guaranteed unlimited success? i'm talking about the platform.

 

[ArtHands]

It's a big factor, but it's not as decisive as more basic things. Like you combine PS4 and PS5 numbers, but the PS4 will be obsolete some day soon. The console model of resetting the install base every generation is not viable. Ultimately PC will win out over Playstation and Nintendo because it's one big global install base that never goes obsolete.

Not just the consoles. Even the PSVR2 isn't backward compatible with PSVR1 games and that wasn't an issue to many PS fans.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Xbox was first, regarding online libraries and digital stores, but once again finished last

The vast vast majority of game purchases on 360 were physical though.

 

[TropicanaTwista]

No, it's probably the biggest lie that gets spread in this industry. Most players don't go back and play old games. Even if it hasn't grown as expected, there is also a significant amount of players would use something like gamepass, where you don't own anything. I expect all of those companies to remain dominant but not because of digital libraries.

 

[Damigos]

The vast vast majority of game purchases on 360 were physical though.

But still, xbox was first

 

[Gamer_By_Proxy]

After just recently rejoining the PCMR, it does have me caring about my steam library more than I ever have. Just knowing it'll all be there for any PC I get in the future.
Seems even more permanent than being tied to a console manufacturer. I started double dipping on some games I already have on PS to also have them on my Steam library.
Like Days Gone for $12.

 

[March Climber]

It's a big factor, but it's not as decisive as more basic things. Like you combine PS4 and PS5 numbers, but the PS4 will be obsolete some day soon. The console model of resetting the install base every generation is not viable. Ultimately PC will win out over Playstation and Nintendo because it's one big global install base that never goes obsolete.

You’ll have to convince me in 2024 and beyond, where digital libraries are the future, that Playstation would suddenly go back to 2005 and make a console that would be built so differently that it would deny access to most or all of that library.

 

[ReBurn]

None of those game brands is too big to fail. It's not about what they did in the past. It's all about what they do in the current day to day. Building a digital library just means you're more likely to get screwed over one day since you don't truly own anything tangible.

 

[Holammer]

After just recently rejoining the PCMR, it does have me caring about my steam library more than I ever have. Just knowing it'll all be there for any PC I get in the future.
Seems even more permanent than being tied to a console manufacturer. I started double dipping on some games I already have on PS to also have them on my Steam library.
Like Days Gone for $12.

Check sites like CDkeys, you can get even better deals there. Like High on Life at 90% off right now for example (I'mma grab that).

 

[AJUMP23]

nothing is guaranteed.

 

[HogIsland]

You’ll have to convince me in 2024 and beyond, where digital libraries are the future, that Playstation would suddenly go back to 2005 and make a console that would be built so differently that it would deny access to most or all of that library.

that's not my point. this isn't hard. yes i also believe Sony will preserve backwards compatibility. the problem is the present and future. publishers do not want approve a game that costs $300m+ to make, that will take 5-7 years to develop targeting consoles with totally unpredictable install bases. you don't know if your game is gonna hit when ps6 has 10M users or 100M users. next-gen customers want to see the whiz-bang features of their new console, but publishers want to support the old console as long as possible. this is a contradiction at the heart of console gaming. Sony's approach with Pro consoles really doesn't address this problem. AAA game development is more compatible with incremental (but compatible!) hardware updates like PC or mobile.

 

[TrebleShot]

Steam is way out in front, theres very basic things PSN isnt offering such as no questions asked refunds on games with limited play time.
Gifting, User Reviews, Forums, PS input to rival Steam input, PC Launcher with Dual entitlement etc.

If Sony wanted to go to the next level they would just copy valve and become a store front/launcher that you could install on any device and all the details info transfers over to your PS5/6, sort of like Steam OS , youd have people installing it on everything going.

 

[FewRope]

I legit think only a nuclear war event can destroy Steam

 

[HogIsland]

Steam is way out in front, theres very basic things PSN isnt offering such as no questions asked refunds on games with limited play time.
Gifting, User Reviews, Forums, PS input to rival Steam input, PC Launcher with Dual entitlement etc.

If Sony wanted to go to the next level they would just copy valve and become a store front/launcher that you could install on any device and all the details info transfers over to your PS5/6, sort of like Steam OS , youd have people installing it on everything going.

If Sony leaves Steam for their own store/launcher, their PC initiative is cooked. The way to win on PC is support Steam APIs more deeply.

 

[Kacho]

But now you can see some of the attempted course correction.

What do you mean?

 

[March Climber]

that's not my point. this isn't hard. yes i also believe Sony will preserve backwards compatibility.

Oh, well we agree then all is good.

publishers do not want approve a game that costs $300m+ to make, that will take 5-7 years to develop targeting consoles with totally unpredictable install bases. you don't know if your game is gonna hit when ps6 has 10M users or 100M users. next-gen customers want to see the whiz-bang features of their new console, but publishers want to support the old console as long as possible. this is a contradiction at the heart of console gaming. Sony's approach with Pro consoles really doesn't address this problem. AAA game development is more compatible with incremental (but compatible!) hardware updates like PC or mobile.

Uh sir…this thread is about digital libraries. You have gone off on a tangent about AAA costs and the PS4 not being supported anymore, when this is merely about the ability to play those PS4 titles on the next system, and the next one, and the next one.

 

[Gamer_By_Proxy]

Check sites like CDkeys, you can get even better deals there. Like High on Life at 90% off right now for example (I'mma grab that).

yea I check there too. Believe I got kingdom come deliverance off there not too long ago. Little cheaper than the steam sale.

 

[FalsettoVibe]

What do you mean?

GP Price increases and tiers with no day one games. Subbing for games vs buying is not as clear cut anymore.

 

[Skifi28]

nothing is guaranteed.

I can guarantee this.

I legit think only a nuclear war event can destroy Steam

No war needed. Just Gabe retiring (or worse) and watching his successor selling to the highest bidder.

 

[HogIsland]

Uh sir…this thread is about digital libraries. You have gone off on a tangent about AAA costs and the PS4 not being supported anymore, when this is merely about the ability to play those PS4 titles on the next system, and the next one, and the next one.

the thread asks whether digital libraries "guaranteed future dominance". I'm explaining why they don't.

 

[March Climber]

the thread asks whether digital libraries "guaranteed future dominance". I'm explaining why they don't.

He’s saying how they guarantee future dominance because of how someone who owns hundreds of digital playstation games has a much, much lower percent chance of suddenly moving to Xbox, when that would essentially mean their entire library is gone.

Again, Phil Spencer pointed this out ages ago and people mocked him for it.

Your tangents touch on aspects that don’t matter to people who are already invested in that ecosystem. If anything, you should have used those arguments on Nintendo as it would be more effective.

 

[HogIsland]

He’s saying how they guarantee future dominance because of how someone who owns hundreds of digital playstation games has a much, much lower percent chance of suddenly moving to Xbox, when that would essentially mean their entire library is gone.

Again, Phil Spencer pointed this out ages ago and people mocked him for it.

Your tangents touch on aspects that don’t matter to people who are already invested in that ecosystem. If anything, you should have used those arguments on Nintendo as it would be more effective.

HAVE ... ?

 

[00_Zer0]

Trusting Nintendo not to sever ties with Nvidia sometime in the future is haphazard at best. Both companies are known to be hard liners when it comes to their strict demands, and neither company is afraid to walk away from deals when it doesn't suit their needs.

If they know what's good for their eco system Nintendo should just stay with Nvidia for the long haul though. Gaining consumers trust is far more important in the long run than saving a few pennies on a cheaper GPU solution

Without continuous BC compatibility guaranteed Nintendo would look the weakest. They are just now looking respectable after their stellar Switch success so to walk away from Nvidia after Switch 2 would be a bad look at this point.

It looks like Sony and MS are stuck using AMD GPUs if they want perfect backwards compatibility, but I believe both will stick with the same strategy and keep BC and continuous access to older libraries from previous consoles.

I am more of a PC gamer though even though I will always own a Nintendo console, so if I trust anyone it would be Valve/Steam with my digital library. I have been a customer for going on 20+ years and I have had constant access to my library the whole time so I do not foresee that changing at all.

 

[DryvBy]

I think this is absolutely the case. Digital ecosystems are about securing you as a customer. You're tied to their system, your profile, your games and everything else are locked in. I think that's why they try so hard to market/sucker people into accepting a digital-only future and why I hate these weird digital-only missionaries online. You own nothing but a playable NFT.

 

[NeverYouMind]

Nintendo has closed every digital marketplace they ever created. Sony will shutdown PS3, PSP, and Vita stores at some point as Xbox shut down the 360 Marketplace. The consoles will not be fully backwards compatible and the digital libraries on them will likely perish as hardware succumbs to built in obsolescence. Physical media is on its way out and digital backups on PC are the only ones that will continue existing in perpetuity. That said, I am fairly confident that Steam and GOG will stick around even if certain items get delisted.

 

[pudel]

No war needed. Just Gabe retiring (or worse) and watching his successor selling to the highest bidder.

Yes, thats one thing to fear. Another thing would be Microsoft. Imho, if MS really wanted, they could take over completely the windows based PC gaming and turning it into a walled garden. It would just be the biggest dick move of all times with so many unknown implications...that even MS is afraid of it... at least right now. Valve isnt going the linux path just out of fun. I think they want to make sure to always be on a free OS.

 

[mayham2199]

I'm not so sure. I think for a lot of core gamers yes. I'm not so sure casual care as much. The casual console market is huge and that's a lot of potential customers that can be moved.

 

[BlackTron]

Eh. When companies are riding high, old libraries don't matter because they have new hotness as leverage. When they're the underdog or suffering, maintaining BC becomes critical.

 

[nightmare-slain]

Deleted

 

[Sooner]

This sounds like, "We lost the most important generation" quitter talk.

You can't believe the key to success is both locking people in with their digital game purchases AND encouraging gamers to just rent games (that we choose) instead of purchasing them.

 

[HogIsland]

you don't own games if you have a physical copy either. you own some of the game.

yeah a physical games ownership absolutist, (which ironically seems to coincide with strong faith in console gaming) would have to wait 2 years to get the last revision of a physical game in most cases. boxed games are just a transferable license key.

 

[rodrigolfp]

At this point I think these 3 brands are too big to fail

Sony almost went "bankrupt" with the PS3. Do you really think they are too big to fail?

Ubisofts "the crew" went obsolete quite easily.

And there are people doing a private server for it. Any game can be resurrected on PC.

 

[Hollowpoint5557]

I have 400 digital Xbox games and 300 PS games and had no problems with switching to PC and dropping the consoles. If I knew how to safely sell my accounts I would but being "locked in to my digital library" means nothing to me. MS and Sony have lost their fucken minds with pricing and I was sick of being nickel and dimed. Been console gaming since Atari and now I'm out. This is a hobby, not a necessity so peace.

 

[Mahavastu]

Not just the consoles. Even the PSVR2 isn't backward compatible with PSVR1 games and that wasn't an issue to many PS fans.

I guess it was one of the main factors that the PSVR2 failed...
Beside that Sony did not even showed support beside the bare minimum...

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Nintendo has closed every digital marketplace they ever created. Sony will shutdown PS3, PSP, and Vita stores at some point as Xbox shut down the 360 Marketplace. The consoles will not be fully backwards compatible and the digital libraries on them will likely perish as hardware succumbs to built in obsolescence. Physical media is on its way out and digital backups on PC are the only ones that will continue existing in perpetuity. That said, I am fairly confident that Steam and GOG will stick around even if certain items get delisted.

This isn’t about digital marketplaces though, if you’ve already purchased a game closing the store doesn’t prevent you from downloading the games onto a new machine.

As for backwards compatibility, I think that largely depends on Sony sticking with AMD and Nintendo sticking with nVidia

Regarding the PS3 BC issue, again that generation was vastly physical and Sony went with a niche/difficult to emulate architecture which Id expect wouldn’t happen again.

 

[AndrewRyan]

I agree digital libraries are one of the primary reasons to stick with a platform.

Steam: They got me for life or at least until Gabe steps down.

Nintendo: Huge Switch library will compel me to buy Switch 2. Primarily for exclusives.

Sony: Let my PS+ subscription lapse after 10 years. Ditching PS3 BC was the beginning of this end. The future of Sony going forward is on Steam for me.

 

[Mownoc]

Nah, I swap my main gaming platform all the time. Peoples digital libraries aren't as massive an obstacle to switching platform as people make out.

I switched to Xbox Series the beginning of 2021 despite having hundreds of games on PS4 the previous gen.

 

[rodrigolfp]

if you’ve already purchased a game closing the store doesn’t prevent you from downloading the games onto a new machine.

Where can you download digital Wii/Wiiware games???

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Where can you download digital Wii/Wiiware games???

Again, libraries skewed far more physical back then, so digital BC wasn’t as much an importance when designing the architecture of the new machines.

 

[dmaul1114]

Digital libraries, achievement/trophy scores and friends list definitely make it harder for many to switch platforms.

At least those who care about those things. Moot for me as I rarely replay games so I don’ care about abandoning a digital library, never paid much attention to achievement/trophy scores and don’t do a ton of online gaming and crossplay makes a lot of that moot as a lot of my gaming friends have moved to PC so I can crossplay with them in most things we want to play while I’m still on consoles this gen (and I play to switch to PC after this gen—or later in the gen).