At this point I think these 3 brands are too big to fail, the main reason…
Digital Libraries
There’s always been brand loyalty in gaming, I remember the Nintendo vs Sega playground arguments. However now more than ever people are sticking with a brand, not because of sheer fanboyism, but because of huge investments in building digital libraries making customers feel confined to walled gardens. This, for me, is making it seem that it’s now almost impossible for anyone else to come along and be a serious challenger in the market.
I can foresee, in decades down the line, the below still dominate…
Steam
Online MAU - 132m
Hardware - HUGE
The oldest online ecosystem going all the way back to 2003, they’re the dominant PC storefront despite competition from the likes of Epic. Lack studios and IP is their only issue. With Microsoft’s misfortunes of late, there’s an opportunity for them to get a small foothold in the console space too, as they’ve done with SteamDeck.
PlayStation
Online MAU - 116m
Hardware - 180m (PS4 + PS5)
No company has managed to be successful in every console generation other than Sony, they effectively killed Sega in one go and only the 360 ever challenged them. Despite slower games output PS5 is as successful as PS4 was. At this point I don’t even think an Xbox One level fucked up would dent marketshare.
Nintendo
Online MAU - unknown
Hardware - 144m (Switch)
Dominant in handheld gaming since the late 80s with every system being a success. The only other system to be successful in this category was the PSP (82m sold) and Nintendo still beat it handsomely. With Switch 2 following a simple brand sequence and backwards compatibility.
Xbox
Online MAU - 120m (disputed both ways)
Hardware - estimated 80m (One + Series)
Not included in the thread title because Im not sure dominance would be the right word for them. Despite the Xbox One reveal fuck up, despite PC day one, despite starting to go 3rd party, despite Microsoft they’ve still managed to sell nearly 30 million Series consoles. I know people who still buy Xbox and moan about it because it’s what they’ve always done. A great example of brand loyalty and the stickiness of libraries.
From here on any potential challenger like Samsung or Tencent would have to build or buy dev studios, get third parties onboard and compete with companies where people have spent hundreds (even thousands) and game libraries that they can’t trade or sell.
What about streaming? Well any competitor is starting from scratch against these big boys.
What about mobile? The absolute failure of the likes of Resident Evil and Death Stranding on iPhone have proved that mobile gamers have been conditioned to not buy games.
What do you guys think, are the top 3 now as invulnerable as Pepsi vs Coke or iOS vs Android?