Support NeoGAF

[LakeOf9]

...conversations with a number of industry analysts have convinced me that 2024 is the year we finally start seeing Xbox's grand ecosystem strategy - and all it entails for exclusivity, multiplatform play, and cloud gaming - finally start to take shape.

Which brings us back to all those rumors of Hi-Fi Rush and Sea of Thieves coming to Switch or PlayStation. McWhirter says that, despite what naysayers online might suggest, Xbox bringing these current-exclusives to its competitors actually benefits Xbox more than Nintendo or PlayStation. "There are signs that Hi-Fi Rush underperformed relative to Microsoft's expectations in terms of its impact on Game Pass subscriptions growth and engagement and full game downloads. Releasing a late port to, say, the Switch, makes continued development of titles like it more sustainable while securing timed exclusivity on Xbox while adding value to Game Pass.

Ampere Analysis' Piers Harding-Rolls notes that it's also uniquely positioned to suggest an ecosystem strategy thanks to its "history in the PC gaming space, its key role with Windows and its long list of B2B services targeting the games sector, including Azure and developer tools," But he acknowledges too that Xbox's move seems to have been born, at least in part, out of necessity, as Xbox has fallen behind in the so-called "console wars" since the heyday of the Xbox 360.

The Series X and S have not helped it gain much ground. Omdia's console forecast suggests that Xbox Series X and S hardware sales dropped by 12.7% year over year in 2023, despite it being at phase in its lifecycle that would traditionally be considered a "growth phase" and releasing what should have been a blockbuster exclusive in Starfield.

"To make matters worse, we're expecting the seven-year-old Switch to have outsold Xbox Series X/S by almost a factor of two in 2023," says Omdia senior games analyst James McWhirter.

The analysts I spoke to agree that a strategy of curated, timed releases of former-exclusives on Nintendo and PlayStation consoles makes a lot of sense for Xbox, and further bolsters its own philosophy of putting its games wherever players happen to be. And no, vocally pro-exclusive audiences on social media likely won't deter them if there's a significant advantage to be had, especially if that audience has already enjoyed a period of exclusivity.

But the real growth Xbox seems to be banking on remains its gaming ecosystem, centered around Game Pass and xCloud, reaching as many devices as possible. Xbox is dreaming of a future in which the "Xbox audience" isn't just the people who own Xbox consoles, but contains Switch owners, PlayStation owners, mobile gamers, and more — all of them playing Xbox games. In the coming year and beyond, we can be on the lookout for mobile Game Pass, Game Pass on smart TVs, a curated selection of former Xbox exclusive games on rival consoles, and several more strands spun into the encompassing gaming web that Xbox has been steadily crafting for nearly a decade now.

Source

I guess this is the same thing everyone has been saying, which is that Xbox will become a multiplatform publishing business with the console business either becoming a small part of the overall strategy, or being gradually phased out (I assume the former, and the console is still kept as a flagshipSurface style thing)

 

[VolticArchangel]

 

[Gamer_By_Proxy]

IGN was ignoring the CEOs comments as long as they could. They just mentioned the CFOs comments like a day or two ago.

 

[bitbydeath]

Saw this but didn’t think much of it, just reporting on what everyone else is talking about.

This part is interesting though:

The rumors remain unproven, but an imminent Xbox Developer Direct has given these reports extra weight.

Something leak that I miss?

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

No popcorn for me.


Youtube videos are popping up about this topic.

This reminds me of the DRM fiasco = PR disaster.

Is going to be interesting how the narrative shapes up after tomorrow's direct.

 

[yurinka]

Microsoft isn't changing anything. They'll continue releasing games on rival consoles as they did since they bought Minecraft.

 

[T-0800]

When things don't go your teams way pretend that was the plan all along.

 

[demigod]

A day before the direct seems awfully suspicious.

 

[bitbydeath]

Microsoft isn't changing anything. They'll continue releasing games on rival consoles as they did since they bought Minecraft.

Does Minecraft support Xbox Series because they aren’t supporting PS5 ATM?

 

[LakeOf9]

Saw this but didn’t think much of it, just reporting on what everyone else is talking about.

This part is interesting though:


Something leak that I miss?

The author clarified on Era that they just meant that these rumours have more gravitas attached to them because of the emotionally charged expectations that happen with an upcoming first party event

 

[bitbydeath]

The author clarified on Era that they just meant that these rumours have more gravitas attached to them because of the emotionally charged expectations that happen with an upcoming first party event

Ah, I’m not expecting anything of that nature from the direct, noted games are too close to be coming out.

 

[LakeOf9]

Ah, I’m not expecting anything of that nature from the direct, noted games are too close to be coming out.

yeah same, I dont think there's any chance of any playstation or switch port announcements during the direct tomorrow

 

[Heisenberg007]

"Conversations with a number of industry analysts have convinced me that 2024 is the year we finally start seeing Xbox's grand ecosystem strategy - and all it entails for exclusivity, multiplatform play, and cloud gaming - finally start to take shape."

Cute of IGN to call Xbox's desperation for profit and survivability as "strategy" LOL! #gamingjournalism

 

[LakeOf9]

"Conversations with a number of industry analysts have convinced me that 2024 is the year we finally start seeing Xbox's grand ecosystem strategy - and all it entails for exclusivity, multiplatform play, and cloud gaming - finally start to take shape."

Cute of IGN to call Xbox's desperation for profit and survivability as "strategy" LOL! #gamingjournalism

It might be a strategy of desperation but it still is a strategy lol

Just not their first choice, I assume

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

The analysts I spoke to agree that a strategy of curated, timed releases of former-exclusives on Nintendo and PlayStation consoles makes a lot of sense for Xbox…

So exactly what was suggested on the Satya post. Why are people so desperate to turn this into MS getING out of hardware and becoming publisher only?

 

[Phase]

IGN gettin that Microsoft money.

 

[bitbydeath]

The analysts I spoke to agree that a strategy of curated, timed releases of former-exclusives on Nintendo and PlayStation consoles makes a lot of sense for Xbox…

So exactly what was suggested on the Satya post. Why are people so desperate to turn this into MS getING out of hardware and becoming publisher only?

Cause people want to keep ignoring the (elephant in the room) streaming only device.

 

[Daneel Elijah]

McWhirter says that, despite what naysayers online might suggest, Xbox bringing these current-exclusives to its competitors actually benefits Xbox more than Nintendo or PlayStation

Third party make more money from their game than the platform holder does. Is this guy the new Pachter?
Shit, not offense to you L LakeOf9 but I have been accoustumed by other OP to have either bait or the full article. That article is pretty big and have fascinating parts by Circana analyst Mat Piscatella and should be read in full.

 

[Gojiira]

I really wish they wouldnt frame it as some big, genius ‘strategy’ thats going to make some kind if glorious turnaround,that the last 10 years if flagging releases are all part of the plan..Its desperation and greed, they want as much of the market as possible, they cant ‘win’ by going against their rivals so third party releases at least allows them to exploit their playerbases in a last ditch effort..Guaranteed their will articles about how genius Satya or Phils strategy has been,guaranteed smh

 

[Crayon]

I'm so glad we finally get to see their grand strategy come together. They've been winning all along.

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

Cause people want to keep ignoring the (elephant in the room) streaming only device.

So the suggestion is MS are going to move to a streaming only device next gen?

 

[LakeOf9]

Third party make more money from their game than the platform holder does. Is this guy the new Pachter?
Shit, not offense to you L LakeOf9 but I have been accoustumed by other OP to have either bait or the full article. That article is pretty big and have fascinating parts by Circana analyst Mat Piscatella and should be read in full.

It should definitely be read in full. I think it's a good article and deserves the clicks, so I didnt want to copy the full thing

 

[Kilau]

Does Minecraft support Xbox Series because they aren’t supporting PS5 ATM?

MS supports the microtransaction shop in Minecraft more than anything. They finally released 4k support for current gen Xbox last month in a preview build but it still isn't a native version, it's been 4k on PlayStation for years thanks to a PS4 Pro update. Basically, what I am saying is, Minecraft isn't a good measure because MS has totally dropped the ball here.

 

[bitbydeath]

So the suggestion is MS are going to move to a streaming only device next gen?

Yep, it was leaked already.

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

Yep, it was leaked already.

It was leaked that they aren't releasing a console that will play hardware locally and are replacing it with a streaming device?

 

[Heisenberg007]

It might be a strategy of desperation but it still is a strategy lol

Just not their first choice, I assume

The irony is that it was IGN's podcast where Phil said in 2020 that "We have a plan to win this generation of consoles." And IGN reported on it

 

[Killjoy-NL]

 

[bender]

The irony is that it was IGN's podcast where Phil said in 2020 that "We have a plan to win this generation of consoles." And IGN reported on it

Reminds me of the time that I had to plan to play for the Harlem Globetrotters.

 

[Represent.]

So the consoles wars are officially over.

Nintendo makes handhelds.

Microsoft bowed out, became multiplat.

Sony has officially won. Slow clap

 

[bitbydeath]

It was leaked that they aren't releasing a console that will play hardware locally and are replacing it with a streaming device?

Yep.

The company imagined you playing these games using the combined power of a sub-$99 gadget — possibly a handheld — and its xCloud platform simultaneously.

Microsoft’s next Xbox, coming 2028, envisions hybrid computing

“Full convergence”

www.theverge.com

 

[Hero of Spielberg]

Yep.

Microsoft’s next Xbox, coming 2028, envisions hybrid computing

“Full convergence”

www.theverge.com

Be interesting to see if they can get it to work. Doesn;t bode well for people with poor internet cinnections.

 

[Physiognomonics]

Damage control. Renaming multiplatform as new kind of exclusivity

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Here's what Xbox should do, and it's quite simple.

Drop the exclusivity bullshit. You just bought a $70B company and you are contractually obligated to bring it to Playstation AND Switch now, for a VERY long time. Why allow Activision, a series that is wildly popular, to be multiplatform, but let you new IPs like Hi-Fi-Rush be sent out to die just because it's on a very small userbase relative to what it could be released on? Makes no fucking sense. Your console is getting outsold in Europe massively (they have like what, 5% marketshare if that???).

1. Xbox "hardware" becomes more specialized and niche and comes in two form factors that have access to the full suite of Windows and an Xbox UI that are GamePass launchers as well.

• A "Steam Deck" style Series S type console that is NOT obligated to play every game, but can play what will run on it across the entire PC universe. Can either be handheld alone or docked. Sold at a premium.
• A "Gaming PC" style Series X that is both more expensive than any console we've seen before ($800-1000+), but that has upgradeable components (GPUs, etc).

Generations now no longer really exist for Microsoft hardware. It's just new smaller iterations available more frequently. The chassis may eventually need to be upgraded, but they will be pretty infrequent.

2. ALL Xbox Studios titles released on Playstation/Switch where possible.

3. Microsoft gets to "Gatekeep" their GamePass service to their own console (begrudgingly, since I don't think Sony will allow this). So they still get some sort of exclusivity type arrangement that entices people to buy their hardware.

But yeah, it's not sustainable to keep releasing all these niche Bethesda games (other than Starfield/Elderscrolls) and titles from Ninja Theory, Obsidian, etc. as exclusives. They are basically being sent out to die and the consumer isn't reacting to this by buying Xboxes, they are reacting to it by NOT buying Xbox or their games at all.

 

[twilo99]

Here's what Xbox should do, and it's quite simple.

Drop the exclusivity bullshit. You just bought a $70B company and you are contractually obligated to bring it to Playstation AND Switch now, for a VERY long time. Why allow Activision, a series that is wildly popular, to be multiplatform, but let you new IPs like Hi-Fi-Rush be sent out to die just because it's on a very small userbase relative to what it could be released on? Makes no fucking sense. Your console is getting outsold in Europe massively (they have like what, 5% marketshare if that???).

1. Xbox "hardware" becomes more specialized and niche and comes in two form factors that have access to the full suite of Windows and an Xbox UI that are GamePass launchers as well.

• A "Steam Deck" style Series S type console that is NOT obligated to play every game, but can play what will run on it across the entire PC universe. Can either be handheld alone or docked. Sold at a premium.
• A "Gaming PC" style Series X that is both more expensive than any console we've seen before ($800-1000+), but that has upgradeable components (GPUs, etc).

Generations now no longer really exist for Microsoft hardware. It's just new smaller iterations available more frequently. The chassis may eventually need to be upgraded, but they will be pretty infrequent.

2. ALL Xbox Studios titles released on Playstation/Switch where possible.

3. Microsoft gets to "Gatekeep" their GamePass service to their own console (begrudgingly, since I don't think Sony will allow this). So they still get some sort of exclusivity type arrangement that entices people to buy their hardware.

But yeah, it's not sustainable to keep releasing all these niche Bethesda games (other than Starfield/Elderscrolls) and titles from Ninja Theory, Obsidian, etc. as exclusives. They are basically being sent out to die and the consumer isn't reacting to this by buying Xboxes, they are reacting to it by NOT buying Xbox or their games at all.

There you go that’s a solid plan.

I don’t know why everyone is so concerned about the hardware aspect of this whole thing, I don’t think it’s that big of a deal for them to keep making consoles at different price points, etc.

 

[Nitty_Grimes]

2024 is the year apparently that we finally start seeing Xbox's grand ecosystem strategy...

Roll on January 18th 2025...

2025 is the year that we finally start seeing Xbox's grand ecosystem strategy...

 

[Daneel Elijah]

It should definitely be read in full. I think it's a good article and deserves the clicks, so I didnt want to copy the full thing

Absolutely.

 

[TheGodfather07]

Looks like its definitely happening and here comes the positive spin from the media. Microsoft getting the word out through them. I always knew it would happen but not this soon. I think Microsoft gave up after seeing how bad xbox sold last year. They knew there's no way they could turn this around now. Especially after seeing xbox literally die in Europe.

 

[twilo99]

Looks like its definitely happening

What exactly do think is happening?

 

[quest]

Looks like its definitely happening and here comes the positive spin from the media. Microsoft getting the word out through them. I always knew it would happen but not this soon. I think Microsoft gave up after seeing how bad xbox sold last year. They knew there's no way they could turn this around now. Especially after seeing xbox literally die in Europe.

What positive spin there is none. If they delayed these 4 games for a long time to bring to playstation day 1 it will end any support from players ever. Playstation players don't care about these games. To delay them for those who do is only a negative and Microsoft should sell everything off and move one if true.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Here's what Xbox should do, and it's quite simple.

Drop the exclusivity bullshit. You just bought a $70B company and you are contractually obligated to bring it to Playstation AND Switch now, for a VERY long time. Why allow Activision, a series that is wildly popular, to be multiplatform, but let you new IPs like Hi-Fi-Rush be sent out to die just because it's on a very small userbase relative to what it could be released on? Makes no fucking sense. Your console is getting outsold in Europe massively (they have like what, 5% marketshare if that???).

1. Xbox "hardware" becomes more specialized and niche and comes in two form factors that have access to the full suite of Windows and an Xbox UI that are GamePass launchers as well.

• A "Steam Deck" style Series S type console that is NOT obligated to play every game, but can play what will run on it across the entire PC universe. Can either be handheld alone or docked. Sold at a premium.
• A "Gaming PC" style Series X that is both more expensive than any console we've seen before ($800-1000+), but that has upgradeable components (GPUs, etc).

Generations now no longer really exist for Microsoft hardware. It's just new smaller iterations available more frequently. The chassis may eventually need to be upgraded, but they will be pretty infrequent.

2. ALL Xbox Studios titles released on Playstation/Switch where possible.

3. Microsoft gets to "Gatekeep" their GamePass service to their own console (begrudgingly, since I don't think Sony will allow this). So they still get some sort of exclusivity type arrangement that entices people to buy their hardware.

But yeah, it's not sustainable to keep releasing all these niche Bethesda games (other than Starfield/Elderscrolls) and titles from Ninja Theory, Obsidian, etc. as exclusives. They are basically being sent out to die and the consumer isn't reacting to this by buying Xboxes, they are reacting to it by NOT buying Xbox or their games at all.

Xbox should just become a 3rd party publisher with their own Ouya at most.

 

[Heisenberg007]

Here's what Xbox should do, and it's quite simple.

Drop the exclusivity bullshit. You just bought a $70B company and you are contractually obligated to bring it to Playstation AND Switch now, for a VERY long time. Why allow Activision, a series that is wildly popular, to be multiplatform, but let you new IPs like Hi-Fi-Rush be sent out to die just because it's on a very small userbase relative to what it could be released on? Makes no fucking sense. Your console is getting outsold in Europe massively (they have like what, 5% marketshare if that???).

1. Xbox "hardware" becomes more specialized and niche and comes in two form factors that have access to the full suite of Windows and an Xbox UI that are GamePass launchers as well.

• A "Steam Deck" style Series S type console that is NOT obligated to play every game, but can play what will run on it across the entire PC universe. Can either be handheld alone or docked. Sold at a premium.
• A "Gaming PC" style Series X that is both more expensive than any console we've seen before ($800-1000+), but that has upgradeable components (GPUs, etc).

Generations now no longer really exist for Microsoft hardware. It's just new smaller iterations available more frequently. The chassis may eventually need to be upgraded, but they will be pretty infrequent.

2. ALL Xbox Studios titles released on Playstation/Switch where possible.

3. Microsoft gets to "Gatekeep" their GamePass service to their own console (begrudgingly, since I don't think Sony will allow this). So they still get some sort of exclusivity type arrangement that entices people to buy their hardware.

But yeah, it's not sustainable to keep releasing all these niche Bethesda games (other than Starfield/Elderscrolls) and titles from Ninja Theory, Obsidian, etc. as exclusives. They are basically being sent out to die and the consumer isn't reacting to this by buying Xboxes, they are reacting to it by NOT buying Xbox or their games at all.

I agree, but there won't be a console in the future if they go multiplatform (which it seems they are going).

They will end up with a 10-15 million userbase at best with that strategy, and that is simply not viable enough to keep the business afloat. At that point, it'd be more profitable to drop the hardware and the subsidy costs it entails.

 

[StueyDuck]

Games journalism really is in the shitter isn't it.

Ign, arguably one of the biggest gaming media organisation's just made a reddit post and tried to pass it off as real life journalism

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

They will end up with a 10-15 million userbase at best with that strategy, and that is simply not viable enough to keep the business afloat.

It is if they get decent margins on the hardware. That’s why I said it would be sold at a premium. It won’t be a big driver of their business compared to third party, but I think they’ll want to keep their hardest core fans still engaged with their entire ecosystem

The end goal is to eventually phase out hardware entirely and go to the cloud, but in the here and now they need to remain relevant

 

[Seyken]

The mental gymnastics are strong with this one.

They make the correct analysis, that Xbox exclusive games are underperforming. But to say that it benefits Microsoft more than the others to bring said games to the competition is just some crazy ass 4D chess.

They want people to use their gamepass platform, but this move essentially pushes PS5 and Switch users away from it? Since they know they can just wait for Microsoft's games in their platform of choice?

 

[bitbydeath]

Here's what Xbox should do, and it's quite simple.

Drop the exclusivity bullshit. You just bought a $70B company and you are contractually obligated to bring it to Playstation AND Switch now, for a VERY long time. Why allow Activision, a series that is wildly popular, to be multiplatform, but let you new IPs like Hi-Fi-Rush be sent out to die just because it's on a very small userbase relative to what it could be released on? Makes no fucking sense. Your console is getting outsold in Europe massively (they have like what, 5% marketshare if that???).

1. Xbox "hardware" becomes more specialized and niche and comes in two form factors that have access to the full suite of Windows and an Xbox UI that are GamePass launchers as well.

• A "Steam Deck" style Series S type console that is NOT obligated to play every game, but can play what will run on it across the entire PC universe. Can either be handheld alone or docked. Sold at a premium.
• A "Gaming PC" style Series X that is both more expensive than any console we've seen before ($800-1000+), but that has upgradeable components (GPUs, etc).

Generations now no longer really exist for Microsoft hardware. It's just new smaller iterations available more frequently. The chassis may eventually need to be upgraded, but they will be pretty infrequent.

2. ALL Xbox Studios titles released on Playstation/Switch where possible.

3. Microsoft gets to "Gatekeep" their GamePass service to their own console (begrudgingly, since I don't think Sony will allow this). So they still get some sort of exclusivity type arrangement that entices people to buy their hardware.

But yeah, it's not sustainable to keep releasing all these niche Bethesda games (other than Starfield/Elderscrolls) and titles from Ninja Theory, Obsidian, etc. as exclusives. They are basically being sent out to die and the consumer isn't reacting to this by buying Xboxes, they are reacting to it by NOT buying Xbox or their games at all.

Devils advocate, I think it's a slippery slope.
You're cutting off areas of business going that method and once you cut them off they may never return.
Eg. Putting all games on Playstation/Nintendo systems means less people are likely to buy Xbox consoles, no matter what form it comes in, and the kicker is that it may even destroy GamePass if the majority of GamePass subscribers are tied to these systems.

I think they just need to go back to basics.
-No day 1 on PC and GamePass
-Stop making games fit for GamePass, and by this I mean they should make huge AAA single player only games
-Make everything exclusive (including COD) once the multi-platform requirement expires
-Bring someone in that can reevaluate all their studios, and turn them around (Purple hairs out, coders in)

 

[bender]

It is if they get decent margins on the hardware. That’s why I said it would be sold at a premium. It won’t be a big driver of their business compared to third party, but I think they’ll want to keep their hardest core fans still engaged with their entire ecosystem

Decent margins for Microsoft would eliminate one of the primary drivers of getting their hardware in the first place and put you in a price range where you are in competition with tens of not hundreds of other hardware manufacturers. At that point you'd be better off trying to go the Steam Machine route.

It's honestly why I think they want to get out of the console hardware business. Remember they were selling the S/X at $100-200 loss per unit sold not to mention R&D. They've given the console hardware business 20+ years and their biggest success was marred by massive hardware failures that cost them over a billion to remedy. They followed that up with hardware that only managed 68% of the sales and their current hardware probably isn't going to equal that.

 

[tylrdiablos]

So the consoles wars are officially over.

Nintendo makes handhelds.

Microsoft bowed out, became multiplat.

Sony has officially won. Slow clap

Which reminds me... how are SEGA doing? Are they massively profitable after dropping the Dreamcast? (Weren't they doing well from Japanese arcades for a while?)

 

[foamdino]

Since last week, so many of the usual MS cheerleading US based games/tech media have suddenly started writing about a "change in direction" or a "new strategy". There have been rumours about HiFi Rush and Sea of Thieves going multi-plat and MS CEO has had two interviews with quite clear statements that they want to put games on PS and Nintendo hw.

Many people predicted that gamepass was an attempt to completely change what the games industry was about - if you cannot beat Sony/Nintendo at the traditional game, throw away the board and start a new game where you have first-mover advantage - Phil Spencer even compared Sony to blockbuster and boasted about MS being ahead.

It's all of a piece.

MS want consumer subscribers - if they get them by making successful hw that's great, however they are still subsidising (and taking a loss on) series X/S hw after 4 years on the market, customers prefer to buy PS or Nintendo hw and subs have stalled as a consequence.

Last 10 days or so lots of rumours about multiplat games, prior to that lots of info about subs stalling, prior to that Tom Warren (mouthpiece extraordinaire) having a bit of a crisis.

Something is up, there's way too much background noise around XBox significantly pivoting (to what is the question, but becoming the biggest 3rd-party publisher seems to be a decent guess).

 

[jm89]

Come on Phil say something.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Come on Phil say something.

Phil seems to have been sidelined. Maybe today at the Direct?

Anyway, I've always said that Spencer was put in place to oversee this transition. It was obvious the moment he took over in the first half of last-gen that MS going 3rd party was a serious possibility.