StereoVsn
Gold Member
That game was released in 2012. Do you have a more recent example?
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IGN: The AAA video game bubble has burst
- Thread starter cormack12
- Start date
tkscz
Member
I wouldn't say it was the quality of the games, but I can't argue with the exclusiveness of them. Sony has "trained" it's audience to prefer cinematic games over things like platformers so I can understand why Rachet and Clank had issues selling (Astrobot as beloved as it is has only recently passed the 1 million unit mark) and FFVII: Rebirth should not have been a PS5 exclusive. Hell people who wanted a FFVII remake didn't want it to be what they currently got.
Baldur's Gate 3's success surprised me to be sure. I love CRPGs and it's an amazing game but in the past these games were niche. But even my daughter, who doesn't care for these kind of games, wanted BG3. But we don't know the budget of the game. The only thing Larian said was "several million dollars" which is very vague.
Mafia, Borderlands and Assassin's Creed Shadows I could see not reaching expectation. But no shit GTA won't be failing, that's a billion dollar baby right there.
That said, that isn't 2024 in a vaccum as even one of your examples was a game that released prior to 2024. Point being is that not every game needs to be $200 million in it's budget to be a high quality game, and it can become a problem down the road for most games, with only the obivous ones succeeding with such high budgets.
HerjansEagleFeeder
Member
I sure hope so. All of it should go down in flames.
diffusionx
Gold Member
No mention of DEI and devs that seem outwardly hostile to their audience = not a complete video.
But, considering it is IGN, it is probably as good as they could do.
But, considering it is IGN, it is probably as good as they could do.
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
Just looking at this year. The flops are:
- Suicide Squad: Self explanatory, everyone who saw Avengers flop 4 years ago saw this coming. Gaas Trash.
- Skull and Bones: GaaS trash.
- Concord: No one wants to play overwatch clones. Another gaas trash.
- Star Wars Outlaws: This one is different because it shouldve been successful but for whatever reason it didnt capture the Ubisoft open world audience. Whats weird is that the game was very well received last year. Much more so than Avatar.
- Hellblade - No one wants to play a walking simulator
Games that underperformed are:
- FF7 - 2.5 million
- Dragon's Dogma 2 - 2.5 million
- Dragon Age - 2 million
I think they sold as much as they can. They just need to make these games faster and shorter to reduce development. 2.5 million is honestly not that bad. Not every game is going to sell 20 million units.
Games that sold well:
- Helldivers 2
- Wukong
- College Football
- Space Marine 2
- Stalker
I think the industry is mostly rejecting live service trash. A single player Suicide Squad or a sequel to AC4 Black Flag would not have flopped. Outlaws is the only game that doesnt fit this mold but it previewed poorly and did not not get great reviews. It's not like we are seeing a 94 metacritic game bomb here.
I think next year when all these games launch, and all of them sell really well, people will stop with the doom and gloom.
- Kingdom come 2
- AC Shadows
- Death Stranding 2
- Ghost of Tusshima 2
- GTA6
- Marvel 1943
- Fable
- Avowed
- Doom The Dark Ages
Instead, we will see some smash hits. Some underperformers and some flops. My guess is Avowed will flop. And maybe AC Shadows.
- Suicide Squad: Self explanatory, everyone who saw Avengers flop 4 years ago saw this coming. Gaas Trash.
- Skull and Bones: GaaS trash.
- Concord: No one wants to play overwatch clones. Another gaas trash.
- Star Wars Outlaws: This one is different because it shouldve been successful but for whatever reason it didnt capture the Ubisoft open world audience. Whats weird is that the game was very well received last year. Much more so than Avatar.
- Hellblade - No one wants to play a walking simulator
Games that underperformed are:
- FF7 - 2.5 million
- Dragon's Dogma 2 - 2.5 million
- Dragon Age - 2 million
I think they sold as much as they can. They just need to make these games faster and shorter to reduce development. 2.5 million is honestly not that bad. Not every game is going to sell 20 million units.
Games that sold well:
- Helldivers 2
- Wukong
- College Football
- Space Marine 2
- Stalker
I think the industry is mostly rejecting live service trash. A single player Suicide Squad or a sequel to AC4 Black Flag would not have flopped. Outlaws is the only game that doesnt fit this mold but it previewed poorly and did not not get great reviews. It's not like we are seeing a 94 metacritic game bomb here.
I think next year when all these games launch, and all of them sell really well, people will stop with the doom and gloom.
- Kingdom come 2
- AC Shadows
- Death Stranding 2
- Ghost of Tusshima 2
- GTA6
- Marvel 1943
- Fable
- Avowed
- Doom The Dark Ages
Instead, we will see some smash hits. Some underperformers and some flops. My guess is Avowed will flop. And maybe AC Shadows.
ProtoByte
Weeb Underling
I read this in article form almost a month ago, and it isn't any less dumb on video.
The comparison between Concord and Diablo 3 as an example of the savage mercilessness of AAA in 2024 is laughable. D3 was one of the earliest fuck ups in the MMO/ARPG vacuum, back when live services barely existed. There was also something viable to fix there. Concord failed because of the disgusting aesthetics, the blatant ripping off of years popular IP, and offering nothing in a crowded hero/arena shooter market.
The whole premise is nonsense. Half of the indie games they mention are literally irrelevant. They aren't preferred in sales or player numbers by the market, there's just more focus on them because this year was fucking weak sauce. Plenty of indie studios have been feeling the bite on the market, it's just that IGN and their ilk don't report on it because they don't give a shit either.
Right now, it's probably easier than ever to come out with a contemporary and competent 20-30 hour AAA single player game that isn't a blatant ripoff or engages in confused social deviant messaging, writing or aesthetics and have it sell a swift 10-20 million. There are so many things wrong with this piece, but that's the main point against it.
The comparison between Concord and Diablo 3 as an example of the savage mercilessness of AAA in 2024 is laughable. D3 was one of the earliest fuck ups in the MMO/ARPG vacuum, back when live services barely existed. There was also something viable to fix there. Concord failed because of the disgusting aesthetics, the blatant ripping off of years popular IP, and offering nothing in a crowded hero/arena shooter market.
The whole premise is nonsense. Half of the indie games they mention are literally irrelevant. They aren't preferred in sales or player numbers by the market, there's just more focus on them because this year was fucking weak sauce. Plenty of indie studios have been feeling the bite on the market, it's just that IGN and their ilk don't report on it because they don't give a shit either.
Right now, it's probably easier than ever to come out with a contemporary and competent 20-30 hour AAA single player game that isn't a blatant ripoff or engages in confused social deviant messaging, writing or aesthetics and have it sell a swift 10-20 million. There are so many things wrong with this piece, but that's the main point against it.
ProtoByte
Weeb Underling
I expect KC2 to go mostly under the radar. Will be a good game, but ultimately not remarkable enough to sell anyone who wasn't sold on the first title.
DS2, I expect to disappoint at worst, and be irrelevant to anyone who isn't high on Kojislop at best.. I am tired of pretending that his self-fellating nonsense is relevant. Sony made a mistake catering to him.
Ghost 2? Yawn. Total retread of the first fast incoming.
Marvel 1943 will flop.
Fable will flop.
Avowed will flop.
Dark Ages will probably be quite good, maybe even recapture the 2016 hype.
GTA6 had better deliver. If it disappoints, there will be a serious enthusiasm spiral that the industry will struggle to deal with.
The artful mincer
Member
30 million
TGO
Hype Train conductor. Works harder than it steams.
Lower budget with actual talented Developers with 20+ experience is the answer
Bernardougf
Member
Oh.. but there is a bubble bursting alright...
The artful mincer
Member
When does AA end AAA begin?
Nobody knows, Nobody ever clarified so it can be used for any argument,any time to paint any narrative you want.
I hate that AAA actually became a part of videogame language but I don't know why I'm surprised.
We're living on Planet stupid at the moment.
Nobody knows, Nobody ever clarified so it can be used for any argument,any time to paint any narrative you want.
I hate that AAA actually became a part of videogame language but I don't know why I'm surprised.
We're living on Planet stupid at the moment.
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Graphics are too important for some people. Look at the reaction to Balatro, from people who haven’t played it.
I just picked up V Rising during the BF sales. Looks better than the vast majority of braindead AAA games.
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
Sequels to well received games like DS, GoT and Kingdom Come do sell well. if they underperform like Dragon Age and Dragons Dogma it will likely be because they are not good like Star Wars outlaws and preview poorly.
I think Avowed might get a hate campaign like Star Wars outlaws and Dragon Age, but i think Fable looks amazing and no amount of hate campaign will bring it down.
Marvel 1943 will only flop if its a DEtroit or Heavy Rain like adventure game. If its an Uncharted style game, it will find an audience. Maybe not 10 million but definitely around 5 million.
Hypereides
Gold Member
I have a proposal to IGN's editorial team; How about you grow some humility, actually listen to your audience and engage with them for once. There's plenty of good games out there. Hardcore gamers are able to often snuff out interesting games that have largely gone unnoticed. Learn what the gaming community actually find interesting and perhaps re-adjust your baseline towards that.
AA/AAA are still largely doing fine. Its just the ones IGN is propping up that aren't.
AA/AAA are still largely doing fine. Its just the ones IGN is propping up that aren't.
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YeulEmeralda
Linux User
Returnal, Alan Wake 2 and FF7 Rebirth didn’t exactly sell ‘dog shit’, but underwhelmed in sales. All highly rated.
FIREKNIGHT2029
Member
IGN with another moronic article
Fabieter
Member
Still last gen but titanfall 2, prey and gravity rush 2. There are few examples every gen iam sure we will get a few examples at the end of this gen.
Making a great games isn't enough
Loomy
Thinks Microaggressions are Real
This reason why this take is dumb:
He's using the 'trend' of a bunch of AAA games in 2023 replaced by a bunch of indie games in 2024 as a sign that developers/publishers and players wanting more smaller games as opposed to these multi hundred million dollar behemoths. The fact is, most of the indie games being released this year started development around 2 years ago. We're seeing results of decisions made years ago today.
Also a heavy AAA year will always be followed by lighter years.
He's using the 'trend' of a bunch of AAA games in 2023 replaced by a bunch of indie games in 2024 as a sign that developers/publishers and players wanting more smaller games as opposed to these multi hundred million dollar behemoths. The fact is, most of the indie games being released this year started development around 2 years ago. We're seeing results of decisions made years ago today.
Also a heavy AAA year will always be followed by lighter years.
semiconscious
Member
i love sucker punch, i enjoyed tshushima to an extent (went on way too long), but I have no idea what's left for this 'franchise' to accomplish. it's just so dry & soulless & lacking in personalty...
Barakov
Member
Ziff Davis is right up there with Microsoft, Google and others that need to be broken up.IGN?
Oh, you mean one of the many mouthpieces of Ziff Davis (not the full list).
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Hawkeye2890
Member
Nope. The WOKE game bubble has burst. Big difference. Devastating to IGN staff's worldview.
kazuyamishima
Member
ZehDon
Member
The entire AAA bubble has burst? Not yet.
I believe we're in the penultimate phase, though, where the market is saturated with expensive low quality titles. Over-monetisation, lack of overall quality despite soaring budgets, strings of flops. However, consumers can still identify quality work through word of mouth because there are enough consumers taking the plunge on big titles. Titles on the lower end of the AAA spectrum can survive off of word of mouth sales, usually ~3 million, which allows titles like STALKER 2 and Space Marine 2 to still find success, and titles like Wukong to utterly explode. These kinds of successes will keep the AAA space afloat for a few years yet. However, given the lead time on major titles, the market can't adapt fast enough anymore, and when their chickens come home to roost, the bubble will finally burst. We're just seeing the fruits of the pushes started end of last generation - forced DEI, GaaS trash, lecturing content, open world slop - landing with a wave of high profile failures. There's a lot more to come before this generation is over.
The last phase, when the bubble bursts, will be when high end AAA titles from established high quality studios fail. That'll highlight the lack of consumer trust in the overall market and indicate the bubble has finally burst. In this phase, there aren't enough consumers taking the plunge on even smaller AAA titles to create the word of mouth sales needed fast enough to deliver meaningful success. Ubisoft are in this last phase now, where none of their games are actually selling because consumers have lost confidence in their titles. Too many games at too high a price at too low quality. If games like Wolverine or Naughty Dog's new IP fail to sell more than two or three million copies in their launch months, that indicates consumers have lost confidence at an industry level, and have moved off of massive budget titles - even from established winning studios - completely. That'll be when the sky starts falling.
I believe we're in the penultimate phase, though, where the market is saturated with expensive low quality titles. Over-monetisation, lack of overall quality despite soaring budgets, strings of flops. However, consumers can still identify quality work through word of mouth because there are enough consumers taking the plunge on big titles. Titles on the lower end of the AAA spectrum can survive off of word of mouth sales, usually ~3 million, which allows titles like STALKER 2 and Space Marine 2 to still find success, and titles like Wukong to utterly explode. These kinds of successes will keep the AAA space afloat for a few years yet. However, given the lead time on major titles, the market can't adapt fast enough anymore, and when their chickens come home to roost, the bubble will finally burst. We're just seeing the fruits of the pushes started end of last generation - forced DEI, GaaS trash, lecturing content, open world slop - landing with a wave of high profile failures. There's a lot more to come before this generation is over.
The last phase, when the bubble bursts, will be when high end AAA titles from established high quality studios fail. That'll highlight the lack of consumer trust in the overall market and indicate the bubble has finally burst. In this phase, there aren't enough consumers taking the plunge on even smaller AAA titles to create the word of mouth sales needed fast enough to deliver meaningful success. Ubisoft are in this last phase now, where none of their games are actually selling because consumers have lost confidence in their titles. Too many games at too high a price at too low quality. If games like Wolverine or Naughty Dog's new IP fail to sell more than two or three million copies in their launch months, that indicates consumers have lost confidence at an industry level, and have moved off of massive budget titles - even from established winning studios - completely. That'll be when the sky starts falling.
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PeteBull
Member
Gotta strongly diseagree on DD2 underperforming- it did above expectactions vs its budget, and again diseagreeing with DA:V underperforming- it is big flop, not concord alike flop that lost 99,9% of its budget, but it still lost big time, probably close to what SW:O did.
Proof with hard data/info:
Dragon’s Dogma 2 Has Sold 3.3 Million Units
And ofc we got no info at all about SW:O or DA:V sales, coz they really sold terribly vs expectactions
ProtoByte
Weeb Underling
There's a reason AC bounces from setting to setting. And over the past decade, I can't think of a more worn out setting than feudal Japan.
Death Stranding 1 has sold 10 million copies. Sounds good, but that's after the PC port (which I can almost guarantee are majority double dips), the directors cut, and the port of the directors cut. Then you have to factor in how many people bought that game, and then were disappointed by it. The only thing worse than a shit game that no one plays is a shit game that a lot of people play, because it poisons the well. Not expecting any real evolution on Kojima's part for this one either, other than Alan Wake 2 arthouse overindulgence.
Ghost is actually quite a modest seller compared to other first party titles, and what it is in comparison to Death Stranding. Again, you're looking at inflated numbers from the directors cut and port - I think it's preemptive and silly, but there's already a fracture in the hype because of the new MC and the casting thereof.
Kingdom Come sold 6 million; great sales for the size of the studio, but you tell me if you think what you've seen for the sequel (graphics aside, because I know your opinion on that) is enough to enhance or broaden the appeal.
So then, it's gonna flop? Lol
Look, I like Amy Hennig, but she clearly doesn't have the best taste in projects right now. This new studio is going to sfduffle with game design big time. You can already tell that all of the money and time is going into '40s leather textures.
And that's the thing: Nobody gives a damn about 1943 in the Marvel universe. Especially not the PG-13 crap they're gonna push. It's just about the least interesting story they could tell for a game like this. If Guardians of the Galaxy can bomb, this is going to be about as irrelevant as it gets.
ArtHands
Thinks buying more servers can fix a bad patch
Those are highly successful mostly because of PC, so they don’t count in the eyes of IGN.
Jaybe
Member
Agree with all of this. Also will add the amount of waste that many AAA studios put on motion capture cinematics to tell stories that are awful is absurd. I’d rather they trim back on this and not require so many copies sold to be profitable.
Kacho
Gold Member
ZoukGalaxy
Member
Meanwhile at Nintendo HQ
"burst", sure Jan.
"burst", sure Jan.
Unknown Soldier
Member
Most like the woke games bubble has burst
Non-woke games are selling as great as they ever have
Non-woke games are selling as great as they ever have
Embearded
Member
Didn't watch the video but i'say its oversimplification.
Different AAA games have different ROI goals because of the way they spend their budgets. It's not a matter of AAA but more of a resource management and to know your market.
A game like Spiderman will sell more than Final Fantasy because it targets a bigger audience so they can risk the higher budget.
Different AAA games have different ROI goals because of the way they spend their budgets. It's not a matter of AAA but more of a resource management and to know your market.
A game like Spiderman will sell more than Final Fantasy because it targets a bigger audience so they can risk the higher budget.
PeteBull
Member
New ninny handheld and gta6 are coming in 2025, so we can 4sure expect some crazy numbers both software and hardware incoming, and i mean +50% if not even +100% growth vs 2024, aka year on year, so no worries, gaming business is fine, otherwise publishers wouldnt blow few hundo milions of usd budget on games that can be seen as flops from miles away.
Ofc in the end
Ofc in the end
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Trilobit
Member
I have no idea why companies think that they have some sort of moral high ground to lecture their customers from. The last bastion of morality are capitalistic companies. I might lend my ear a little to non-profits that actually try to better the world, but not to quasi neo-religious ideologists that paint their hair blue and screech on twitter as if their prescription on Xanax had been cancelled a month ago. I can't even overstate how little bearing game developers have on my personal moral values, even less so when they try to shame people like some kind of overzealous priests in the 19th century.
semiconscious
Member
'nuff said...
delirium trigger
Member
The same people who make dei games have some serious entitlement. They think because they "worked hard" it's your obligation to buy their shitty game.
Games have flopped our entire lives. That's why... you need to make games that people actually want to play.
Games have flopped our entire lives. That's why... you need to make games that people actually want to play.