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[Insider Gaming] PS5 Pro To Sell 13 Million Units Over 5 Years, Analyst Predicts

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According to one analyst from Ampere Analysis, the PS5 Pro should sell similarly to that of the PS4 Pro.

Piers Harding-Rolls, a games industry analyst at the company, believes that that PS5 Pro will sell around 13 million units by 2029. As far as its launch window, the company thinks that 1.3 million or so consoles will be sold. That prediction puts it just shy of the 1.7 million PS4 Pro consoles sold during its 2016 launch window.

“We expect the price point to soften demand with some consumers, but for PlayStation enthusiasts the pricing is less of a consideration,” he writes.

Why is the PS5 Pro Price So High?

“PS5 Pro pricing reflects Sony’s adjusted strategy to protect its margin, generally supply chain inflation and a lack of direct competitor to its mid-cycle upgrade compared to last generation (where Microsoft was preparing the Xbox One X),” he said. “The lack of competition means it is an easier decision for Sony to run with a higher price point to protect its existing margins.”

“For most prospective PS5 consumers, the standard edition will represent the value sweet spot.”

The PS5 Pro releases on November 7.


Sounds About Right GIF by Djemilah Birnie
 
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ToadMan

Member
I think as a percentage of the total PS5 userbase, about a 10% to 15% uptake of the pro seems like a reasonable target doesn't it?
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
I think as a percentage of the total PS5 userbase, about a 10% to 15% uptake of the pro seems like a reasonable target doesn't it?

I think 7%-10%. And I expect Sony to sell a total of 130 million PS5s by 2028. So I have them selling a minimum of 7.5 million Pros and a max of 13 million.
 

Crayon

Member
I think as a percentage of the total PS5 userbase, about a 10% to 15% uptake of the pro seems like a reasonable target doesn't it?

Yeah sounds about right. i think the 4-pro was like twenty percent of sales after it came out, and this surely has a much higher margin so that would make up for that being a little lower.

I didn't think of this before... but the console demographic is still aging up. We are getting into significant numbers of guys getting into their fifties, as well as kids being drawn elsewhere. So as the average of the demo ages up, there's a little more money and a lot more "oh, fuck it" to buy a very expensive console.
 
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If Sony wants to save some cash they should just scrap their PR department and hire all the apologists and fanboys from Gaf and Era for a one-time payment of a PS5 Pro, you'll have to buy the disk drive and stand separately though.
 

demigod

Member
It needs to be heavily discounted or have a GTA 6 bundle, otherwise it has no chance of going over 10mil. We've already seen how many folks on this board are not going to get it.
 
I think people desperately hoping the Pro will flop are delusional, but I also think that historically mid-gen upgraded consoles have not had significant sales. This is true not just of PS4 Pro but also of things like New Nintendo Switch (the OLED) and New Nintendo 3DS (which had faster CPU and more RAM) and also all those crazy things you used to be able to plug into a Sega Genesis
 
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StereoVsn

Gold Member
I am skeptical of those numbers. I don’t think Pro is going to be selling the 20% of PS4 Pro due to price discrepancy.

PS4 Pro was $100 over PS4 vanilla. PS5 Pro is almost $300 over PS5 Disk edition or $250 for Slim DE.

I am thinking more like 10% of sales going forward will be pro. So if we think PS6 is coming in late 2028, got 4 years to sell, probably 5-6 mil sold then as nobody is going to buy Pro when PS6 is out.
 

Alebrije

Member
It needs to be heavily discounted or have a GTA 6 bundle, otherwise it has no chance of going over 10mil. We've already seen how many folks on this board are not going to get it.
Sure there is a Poll here and las time a saw it like 20% of people was ready to get the PRO, since this a videogame forum lets Say the average market for the PRO is 10 % of the current 120 millions sold , so 12 millions seems factible over 5 years.

Do not think it Even needs GTA to reach those numbers , but all is speculation now so time will tell
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Sure there is a Poll here and las time a saw it like 20% of people was ready to get the PRO, since this a videogame forum lets Say the average market for the PRO is 10 % of the current 120 millions sold , so 12 millions seems factible over 5 years.

Do not think it Even needs GTA to reach those numbers , but all is speculation now so time will tell

So with GTA6, it should sell even better right?
 

Vick

Member
It's the magical SSD all over again.
A rough 180% increase instead of a declared 45%, according to MLiD's leaked benchmark.

Assuming he ain't bullshitting, after he got previous Pro leaks 100% right, that's the purest and most outlandish definition of a secret sauce ever.
More than regular PS5 outperforming more powerful machines.
 

demigod

Member
Sure there is a Poll here and las time a saw it like 20% of people was ready to get the PRO, since this a videogame forum lets Say the average market for the PRO is 10 % of the current 120 millions sold , so 12 millions seems factible over 5 years.

Do not think it Even needs GTA to reach those numbers , but all is speculation now so time will tell
This is not true. You can't say the PS5 Pro will reach the same percentage as the PS4 Pro with double the pricetag of the machine. I guarantee you that more folks on this board bought the PS4 Pro than there will be folks who plan on getting the PS5 Pro.
 

Dorfdad

Gold Member
“PS5 Pro pricing reflects Sony’s adjusted strategy to protect its margin, generally supply chain inflation and a lack of direct competitor"

This is what happened when we don't have a competitive gaming market they can just rake us over the coals. Anyone happy about XBOXs failures are silly. We need competition or the PS6 will be a minor next generation system entry instead of a beast.
 
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ToadMan

Member
“PS5 Pro pricing reflects Sony’s adjusted strategy to protect its margin, generally supply chain inflation and a lack of direct competitor"

This is what happened when we don't have a competitive gaming market they can just rake us over the coals. Anyone happy about XBOXs failures are silly. We need competition or the PS6 will be a minor next generation system entry instead of a beast.

There is more competition than ever.

This kind of comment is Xbox console war salt. The quicker MS gets to full third party status, the better for everyone.
 
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Robb

Gold Member
GTA6 is one hell of a drug.

I don’t see this doing ps4 Pro numbers. But we’ll see.
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
Just over 2.5 mill a year. I'd say that makes sense.

Probably will end up making them more profit than the standard ps5 at that price. Just hardware aligned. Not software sales etc.
 
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A lot of people will want the very best place to play GTA 6 when it launches, just where will that be?
Apparently it's not delayed so I don't know that a new xbox would make it out in time. The guy who posted that "rumor" took it down after Schreier couldn't confirm it after talking to several different people at Rockstar who said they hadn't heard anything about a delay.
 
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dEvAnGeL

Member
At that price in this economy ? Good luck
This is a product for enthusiasts. Same pool of customers that buy GPUs for $1,600 and up. It isn’t meant to be the mass market console. I would even say i can be more successful than the ps4 pro. Now that Sony has released some of their games on PC. This could work to their benefit, some PC gamers that enjoyed PS franchises might end up buying one if the games they liked aren’t coming same day on PC and console as many are predicting will be the case.
 

Killjoy-NL

Gold Member
Wasn't PS4 Pro about 10% of total PS4 sales?

Maybe they estimate ~130M lifetime sales for PS5 and just went with 10%.
 

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
They are expecting a 9 year generation? I suppose PS4s are still being sold.

I think the generation will last at least 8 years for Sony but the PS5 will continue to sell big numbers into the next generation. The PS4 was robbed of its potential sales; including the PS4 Pro by supply chain issues. Sony had to discontinue the PS4 Pro when the PS5 launched because it wasn't worth making them for cheaper.

In theory, we could have seen a situation where the PS5 launched for 500, the digital launched for 400, the PS4 Pro dropped in price to 300/350, and the PS4 was 200/250. This would have positioned the PS4 Pro and PS4 as alternatives to the Switch.

The PS5 will continue to be sold through much of the PS6's life, including the PS5 Pro.

It needs to be heavily discounted or have a GTA 6 bundle, otherwise it has no chance of going over 10mil. We've already seen how many folks on this board are not going to get it.

Sony isn't going to drop the price of the PS5/Pro until after the hype of GTA6 has died down. Sony knows people don't want to play GTA6 on an XSS, hell it'll be interesting to see how that even plays out. You will generally have 3 options. By a base PS5, by an XSX, or buy a PS5 Pro.

A good percentage of people will buy the PS5 Pro for GTA6. They don't even need to bundle it, though I'm sure they could do a bundle for like $750.

We've seen how many folks on this board have said they're not going to get it. Wait until the narrative changes and those numbers change. Wait til games start more frequently hitting 30 fps on the base consoles.

The PS4 Pro didn't have GTA driving its sales and eventually (after GTA6) the PS5 and PS5 Pro will drop in price, probably some time in 2026.

People think Sony is simply focused on units sold, but they're not. They're focused on profitability.

If Sony is losing 50 dollars on the PS5 (sold at 500). If someone buys two full priced 3rd party games on it from the PS Store, they're still 8 dollars in the red...

Let's assume they're making 75 dollars on ever PS5 Pro sold. You sell 5 million of these at full price, that's 375 million in operating income that you can use to absorb hardware losses on the cheaper unit in 2025. But that entire profit margin would be wiped out by the first 3.75 million units you sold of the base unit for 100 dollars less...
 
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