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[Mooreberg]

So MGS4 sold almost as much in a month as MGS3 did lifetime on something like 8x the user base (at time of release)? I'm now more convinced than ever that MGS2 completely torpedoed MGS3's chances of selling what it deserved to. Hopefully people with B/C capable PS3's check out Subsistence at least.

Console prices is hurting next gen game more than anything.

Well next month should be interesting now that 360 finally has their worthwhile sku below $300. There should be a big jump in sales from that, the existing library, and what is coming out. If not, than you have to start wondering if they've hit a saturation point.

 

[Nif]

So at this rate how long till the PS3 overtakes the 360 in the US?

The Dark One

If Sony releases a MGS4 every month, 2+ years. Even then, we'd be in the same place we are now, with just about everything going multiplatform. People need to get used to how things are, because nobody's going to win HD like the PS2 won its generation.

 

[supermackem]

And this shows how big sony loseing ff13 was, they wouldve seen another big bump like this come the launch of ff13.

 

[Gamer @ Heart]

:lol you really dont know what you are talking about.

You are kidding yourself if you think this game will be a gigantic hit. Being Popular in GAF is not representitive of the world.

 

[Future]

Wow at GTA. Just shows that GAF's minor criticism was on the ball. Great game, but word of mouth means its not gonna have the same legs as the GTA3 series

MGS series redeemed. An exclusive that Sony needed.

 

[fernoca]

For the sake of Little Big Planet and the PS3, I hope that Sony releases a bundle of that upcoming $399 80GB unit..with Little Big Planet..and for the same price...lots of advertising..heck, and a Super Stardust HD voucher..

 

[-Rogue5-]

I don't think Gears 2 or Resistance 2 will sell consoles simply because most people who will buy those games already have their predecessors. MGS4, on the other hand, was a game people were holding out on a PS3 purchase for. In other words, you don't hear people saying, "I'm gonna buy a 360/PS3 when Gears 2/Resistance 2 comes out!" Killzone 2 maybe, but even that is iffy.

Also, I'm still thinking that given the choice of HD consoles, casual PS2 users will upgrade to a PS3, not a 360. Partly because of blu-ray, partly because of free online, partly because they had a PS2... I don't think (exclusive hardcore) software plays a major role with casuals simply because they only get consoles for Madden and Guitar Hero (which are crossplatform). As such they're much more interested in peripheral capabilities of the system (of which blu-ray and free online could hold their own against the netflix announcement and Live).

That said, judging by the numbers, the Wii may actually be drawing casual PS2 gamers out of Sony's 110million userbase (rather than broadening the market, the Wii might actually just be pulling from a segment of an already established casual market). With regard to just the HD consoles (because Wii is a runaway train and clearly the leader) this is really anyones ball game until sub-$200 pricing... that's gonna decide who wins (between 360 and PS3) in long term.... a.k.a. who gets 2nd behind Wii.

 

[laserbeam]

I don't think Gears 2 or Resistance 2 will sell consoles simply because most people who will buy those games already have their predecessors. MGS4, on the other hand, was a game people were holding out on a PS3 purchase for. In other words, you don't hear people saying, "I'm gonna buy a 360/PS3 when Gears 2/Resistance 2 comes out!" Killzone 2 maybe, but even that is iffy.

Also, I'm still thinking that given the choice of HD consoles, casual PS2 users will upgrade to a PS3, not a 360. Partly because of blu-ray, partly because of free online, partly because they had a PS2... I don't think (exclusive hardcore) software plays a major role with casuals simply because they only get consoles for Madden and Guitar Hero (which are crossplatform). As such they're much more interested in peripheral capabilities of the system (of which blu-ray and free online could hold their own against the netflix announcement and Live).

That said, judging by the numbers, the Wii may actually be drawing casual PS2 gamers out of Sony's 110million userbase (rather than broadening the market, the Wii might actually just be pulling from a segment of an already established casual market). This is really anyones ball game until sub $200 pricing... that's gonna decide who wins long term.

By the time the consoles hit sub 200 the Wii will have already gotten such a lead that it doesnt matter if half the PS2 userbase bought a PS3 and even then the Real PS2 userbase is not 120 million. Everyone of us who bought a redesigned PS2 after our original is counted in that 120 million twice or more.

This Generation is over as far as who wins first place.

 

[-Rogue5-]

By the time the consoles hit sub 200 the Wii will have already gotten such a lead that it doesnt matter if half the PS2 userbase bought a PS3 and even then the Real PS2 userbase is not 120 million. Everyone of us who bought a redesigned PS2 after our original is counted in that 120 million twice or more

I excluded the PS2/PSTwo redundancy for the sake of simplicity. I was also talking about just the HD consoles reaching a sub-$200 pricepoint for the long term... Realistically, Wii has won overall already... I mean isn't it still hard to find in some places and nearing 30million sales WW! That's crazy.

Also, seeing how well a high profile exclusive like MGS4 did for sales is probably making the loss of FFXIII exclusivity that much harder on Sony's morale.

Anyone have the WW YTD numbers for 360, PS3, and Wii?

 

[fresquito]

That said, judging by the numbers, the Wii may actually be drawing casual PS2 gamers out of Sony's 110million userbase (rather than broadening the market, the Wii might actually just be pulling from a segment of an already established casual market). This is really anyones ball game until sub $200 pricing... that's gonna decide who wins long term.

It amazes me that some people are so out of touch with reality. Wii is the market leader, and it will be for the rest of the generation. Just look at the damn figures.

 

[-Rogue5-]

It amazes me that some people are so out of touch with reality. Wii is the market leader, and it will be for the rest of the generation. Just look at the damn figures.

Re-read my last two posts... you won't be nearly as amazed at your lapse in reality.

Edit: I also edited them to avoid kneejerks.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

Also, I'm still thinking that given the choice of HD consoles, casual PS2 users will upgrade to a PS3, not a 360. Partly because of blu-ray, partly because of free online, partly because they had a PS2... .

Its like 2005 all over again!!

When will people realise the biggest factor is PRICE, then GAMES,

Blu ray is Wayyyyyy down the list and becoming increasingly less important with blu ray player prices in decline.

 

[DC R1D3R]

Well done Team Ninja. Considering all the unnecessary flak NGII took, it hasn't done too bad.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

Well done Team Ninja. Considering all the unnecessary flak NGII took, it hasn't done too bad.

Yes it did very well, probably a couple of hundred thousands in Europe & Jpan makes half a million in month one, not bad at all.

 

[Kagari]

Is there more than just the top 10 available?

 

[laserbeam]

I excluded the PS2/PSTwo redundancy for the sake of simplicity. I was also talking about just the HD consoles reaching a sub-$200 pricepoint for the long term... Realistically, Wii has won overall already... I mean isn't it still hard to find in some places and nearing 30million sales WW! That's crazy.

Also, seeing how well a high profile exclusive like MGS4 did for sales is probably making the loss of FFXIII exclusivity that much harder on Sony's morale.

Anyone have the WW YTD numbers for 360, PS3, and Wii?

YTD Japan+USA
Wii: 5,039,906
PS3: 2,121,952
360: 1,425,329

Europe is anyones guess number wise but the order is the same

 

[polyh3dron]

And PS3 being a BR player is hurting it too.

wat?

The Sgt meant that the hike in price that came along with putting a BD drive in the PS3 has hurt the PS3, and I don't think anyone in their right mind would disagree with that. BD has been a double edged sword as far as the PS3 is concerned though, and it's not completely a bad thing like certain people with Nintendo or MS allegiances here would have us believe.

As BD becomes more popular, the other edge of that sword will become more prevalent.

 

[-Rogue5-]

Its like 2005 all over again!!

When will people realise the biggest factor is PRICE, then GAMES,

Blu ray is Wayyyyyy down the list and becoming increasingly less important with blu ray player prices in decline.

That's because none of the casuals that would appreciate built-in blu-ray have upgraded to a next-gen console yet (unless they're going to a Wii, which is very possible). And notice how I mentioned it being anyone's ball game (for 2nd next to Wii) until sub-$200 ... that's because I agree that price is the biggest factor... What I'm trying to say is if everything remains equal, and both consoles end up being $199 around the same timeframe, the casuals that are waiting for that pricepoint will probably appreciate blu-ray playback quite a bit... personally I think it'd be enough to tip the scales in the PS3's favour.

In my experience GAMES aren't that big of a deal to casuals since the vast majority of titles they want/buy are crossplatform anyway (Madden, GH, GTAIV, the Sims, etc.).

 

[DC R1D3R]

That's because none of the casuals that would appreciate built-in blu-ray have upgraded to a next-gen console yet (unless they're going to a Wii, which is very possible). And notice how I mentioned it being anyone's ball game (for 2nd next to Wii) until sub-$200 ... that's because I agree that price is the biggest factor... What I'm trying to say is if everything remains equal, and both consoles end up being $199 around the same timeframe, the casuals that are waiting for that pricepoint will probably appreciate blu-ray playback quite a bit... personally I think it'd be enough to tip the scales in the PS3's favour.

In my experience GAMES aren't that big of a deal to casuals since the vast majority of titles they want/buy are crossplatform anyway (Madden, GH, GTAIV, the Sims, etc.).

I just can't see a PS3 retailing at $199 for a very long time to come. Can you?

 

[DC R1D3R]

Its like 2005 all over again!!

Heheh

You can only lead a horse to water mr_bishiuk. Some people just can't handle reality :]

 

[PetriP-TNT]

Metal Gear!!

*handgesture.gif*

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

That's because none of the casuals that would appreciate built-in blu-ray have upgraded to a next-gen console yet (unless they're going to a Wii, which is very possible). And notice how I mentioned it being anyone's ball game (for 2nd next to Wii) until sub-$200 ... that's because I agree that price is the biggest factor... What I'm trying to say is if everything remains equal, and both consoles end up being $199 around the same timeframe, the casuals that are waiting for that pricepoint will probably appreciate blu-ray playback quite a bit... personally I think it'd be enough to tip the scales in the PS3's favour.

In my experience GAMES aren't that big of a deal to casuals since the vast majority of titles they want/buy are crossplatform anyway (Madden, GH, GTAIV, the Sims, etc.).

Nexflix is a bigger name than Blu-Ray currently

 

[PetriP-TNT]

Nexflix is a bigger name than Blu-Ray currently

That might be true in USA, but rest of the world doesn't even know what "a Netflix" is.

 

[Azelover]

Hardcore gamers are smarter than most gamers, and I don't mean that in a good way for business.

Not only are they well informed they also find whatever ways around paying full price for a game, that ends up bringing first month sales up but then drops like a rock, as many people return their games after finishing them, effectively damaging the shelf life of the game.

This reality will only get worse until the point the first major financial disasters occur, as we all know increasing development costs are also a must for this audience, we'll see how long it lasts, in my personal opinion it was never sustainable or the future, this audience will be very sad indeed. One could argue they are inherently sad anyway.

 

[Azelover]

That's because none of the casuals that would appreciate built-in blu-ray have upgraded to a next-gen console yet (unless they're going to a Wii, which is very possible)

They won't upgrade to a next gen console for the reason I have explained a million times already, and that is the dilemma. For those people the HD consoles are the same as the previous you can't see that because you can see a huge difference, they can't. The majority is going DS, many are going Wii and PSP, some keeping their current generation consoles. This illusion that they will upgrade to "next-gen" will turn out to be a waiting game, because it's simply not happening.

 

[Rayven]

Thanks. Could post more of the list, maybe the top 25?

 

[jrricky]

OFFTOPIC: The dark knight is the greatest movie ive seen all year, go see it! Correction the greatest superhero movie ever made.

ONTOPIC: Typical NPD. Oh and hey Microsoft, make sure you bundle your 360 with gears of war this holiday, Sony is not pulling any punches in doing that......

If you want your console sold, bundle it with a high profile game........

Spoiler

:lol

Nintendo, keep doin what your doin..:lol :lol

Oh and the Wii is going to be top software seller from here on out.

 

[Riddick]

It's a close race between 360 and PS2.

 

[-Rogue5-]

I just can't see a PS3 retailing at $199 for a very long time to come. Can you?

I would think that if the 360 (20gig/60gig) drops to $199, Sony would have to respond accordingly. You can see that, right? If they didn't, they'd be toast.

As for blu-ray and reality; the reality is that when the systems are at/around the $199 pricepoint, having blu-ray included will probably be a major boon for casuals. Not only will you be able to download/rent through PSN, but you'll also have disc-based HD format compatibilty as well for users without a decent net connection. Effectively a win-win. Plus it plays pretty much all of the same games and has free online (which, if they know about it, casuals will appreciate).

It's important to note that I'm talking about casuals who don't have a preference/affliation with either MS or Sony... That is to say, if someone wants to play Gears 2 or Resistance 2 specifically, they'll go out of their way to get a 360/PS3 and nothing will change that... That said, I think that type of person has already bought their HD console(s), so they aren't included in the sub-$200 casual category I'm referring to (the ones that make up at least half of the 120mil PS2's sold.)

Now if netflix is worldwide or the pricing is amazing ($10/mth, unlimited streaming movies/shows), than that's great and will benefit the 360 massively... will it sell better to casuals than a physical format like BD? I have no clue and I don't think anyone can answer that with any degree of certainty. (side note: can't you already stream netflix movies through PS3's webbrowser?)

@Azelover: The casual gamer you've described is the one I'm talking about and I don't disagree with you, but that's why I think peripheral capabilities (like Blu-Ray or Netflix, etc.) will help sell the "next-gen" systems to those casuals who don't really notice the improvement of HD gaming's graphics. That's also why it's the sub-$200 that counts... even if it's a none-noticable graphics upgrade for $200, it'll be an always online, blu-ray player with digital distribution functionality, that also plays Madden in HD. Eventually people will make the leap (unless they're already buying Wiis, which is quite possible.)

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

What's going on with the hardware prediction results then? Someone locked the prediction thread, I want to see how badly I did! :lol

 

[Yoshi]

btw, whats PS3 exclusives release schedule?

Aren't you working for Sony and should by far be the best choice to answer this question? Sometimes I realy come to think you're a joke character...

eh, it is only possible system for it now... only system where you can have user generated content in the game actually.

If you leave out Wii and 360, yeah, it may be the only one. I remember a vertain fighting game with a stage editor for the Wii and iirc my 360 has a nice little thing called HDD where you could store a fuckton of levels. Nevertheless it's pointless, because this is a Sony game so I don't really get why you are even discussing this matter.

On NPD:
Great success for Nintendo and really great start for MGS. While I personally don't like MGS at all it's nice to see a good game succeed . GTA4 out of the top ten makes the charts all the more sympathic to me .

 

[radeonxt]

I expected mgs 4 to reach the million without bundles, at least. But it moved a lot of hw!

 

[szaromir]

Rogue5 - if one of aspects is as important as you make it out to be, then expect a megaton later this year.

 

[Brannon]

Impressive!

Ouch for 360 though.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So I believe Wii's half-year total puts it a few hundred thousand beyond GCN's best full-year total.

System: Average weeks ownership (Average purchase date)

Wii: 38.7 (October 9, 2007)
PS3: 39.3 (October 4, 2007)
X360: 65.6 (April 4, 2007)

I can't understand why Wii and DS figures haven't made sales-age irrelevant to you people by now.

??? Record-breaking events make stat-watching irrelevant?

So its just coincidental that the PS3 had a huge bump when MGS4 was released?

I bought PS3 when MGS4 was released... so I could sell it on GAF and get a Blu-ray* player for $50 cheaper.

and PS1/PS2/media

@Azelover: The casual gamer you've described is the one I'm talking about and I don't disagree with you, but that's why I think peripheral capabilities (like Blu-Ray or Netflix, etc.) will help sell the "next-gen" systems to those casuals who don't really notice the improvement of HD gaming's graphics.

Will the people who can't notice those improved graphics notice the improvement of image in Blu-ray movies?

What's going on with the hardware prediction results then? Someone locked the prediction thread, I want to see how badly I did! :lol

Though I know it's usually bad form to question modding decisions, seconded.

At worst donny2112 could end up posting the results with the older ones at his site, though it's a bit out of date at present.

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

Though I know it's usually bad form to question modding decisions, seconded.

At worst donny2112 could end up posting the results with the older ones at his site, though it's a bit out of date at present.

Thanks, I'll have to keep an eye on his website, or for a new thread that gets created here.

Although I pretty much nailed the 360 results the rest were..... less than stellar I must say! :lol Luckily I don't think I'm alone there.

 

[juicyfruitas]

Did I miss something or did msoft not issue a customary NPD day press release?

If so, they must really be smarting over the June NPD #'s

 

[gofreak]

LBP will sell within the existing base well, but it ain`t pushing people to the PS3.

I think, on paper, it has a lot more potential to push consoles into new hands than something like Resistance or Gears. There's nothing like it out there yet, there's nothing like it on the system. Gears and Resistance (and games of their ilk) have already established audiences.

A lot of this is potential right now though. A lot depends on marketing. I would prefer if it were launching onto a cheaper PS3 too. I'm loathe to make any hard predictions, but this game simple looks too good and too marketable. It seems to appeal to everyone, it has depth and novelty..a marketing department couldn't hope for a better product to sell in many ways.

 

[Timen]

 

[Doc Evils]

MGS4 megaton. woot woot.

 

[E-phonk]

I think, on paper, it has a lot more potential to push consoles into new hands than something like Resistance or Gears. There's nothing like it out there yet, there's nothing like it on the system. Gears and Resistance (and games of their ilk) have already established audiences.

A lot of this is potential right now though. A lot depends on marketing. I would prefer if it were launching onto a cheaper PS3 too. I'm loathe to make any hard predictions, but this game simple looks too good and too marketable. It seems to appeal to everyone, it has depth and novelty..a marketing department couldn't hope for a better product to sell in many ways.

Completely agree. LBP needs to be pushed like it's the biggest thing out there. It can convince a lot of people for a lot of different reasons - a bit like a mario game that both pleases the nintendo crowd, the core gaming crowd and the mainstream gamer, something a FPS game never could.

 

[AniHawk]

I think, on paper, it has a lot more potential to push consoles into new hands than something like Resistance or Gears. There's nothing like it out there yet, there's nothing like it on the system. Gears and Resistance (and games of their ilk) have already established audiences.

A lot of this is potential right now though. A lot depends on marketing. I would prefer if it were launching onto a cheaper PS3 too. I'm loathe to make any hard predictions, but this game simple looks too good and too marketable. It seems to appeal to everyone, it has depth and novelty..a marketing department couldn't hope for a better product to sell in many ways.

I'm rooting for LBP. It would be so awesome to see it become a huge success, and then see other companies making platformers again to try and cash in on it too.

 

[MysticDragon8907]

I didn't buy Ninja Gaiden 2 and saved my money for MGS 4.

Microsoft needs to fix their sku pricing. $ 299 for a 20GB is a good price, but if they finish that line and start $349 for 60GB, they will be in the same problem they are now.

There is nothing wrong with a 60GB 360 for 349.99. That price is fine

 

[gofreak]

This isn't to say I think LBP's success, on a larger scale, is guaranteed. I think the hardware price could limit its capability to push through new hardware - at least in so far as hardware prices have been limiting HD hardware sell-through to date. It's the one thing making me nervous about it, but we'll see. Perhaps it can have legs regardless, and continue to sell as hardware prices come down - it's pretty well positioned for that, I think. Word-of-mouth could be great for it (one reason I think they really should think about exposing things like in-game user screenshots publically on the web..so everyone can have a window in on it and see just how cool it is).

 

[Cynar]

What's interesting to me on that chart that hasn't been mentioned is the Wii version of Lego Indiana Jones outsold all the other versions. Believe that's the first time that's happened for a 3rd party game.

Nope, Guitar Hero 3 outsold others on Wii.

 

[CloudNL]

Bad sales for 360.
Good job PS3 and MGS4!
Good job!

 

[szaromir]

There is nothing wrong with a 60GB 360 for 349.99. That price is fine

Actually, there is everything wrong with this SKU. Thankfully, we can expect pricedrops in late August-September window.

 

[kottila]

Nope, Guitar Hero 3 outsold others on Wii.

Not in the first month and it hasn't caught up to the 360 or PS2 version yet. I believe that Sega Superstar Tennis outsold the other versions, but I don't remember seeing any numbers.

 

[StriKeVillain]

Microsoft keep adding incentives on top of a price point instead of lowering the price. At the end of the day you're still paying the same price for a small incremental upgrade.

They're in it to make profit though not to win it. I can understand some of their logic. They want to make as much money as possible and still beat the PS3.

 

[BishopLamont]

Old Gen > Next Gen when it comes to LEGO Indiana Jones.

Wii/DS/PS2 = 820k
360/PS3/PSP = 280k (93.3k each split evenly)

The chartz site has the 360 version alone at 200k. What a joke.