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Media Create Sales: 10 - 16 July
- Thread starter medrew
- Start date
Barf_the_Mog
powerless or are they? o_O
I caught the error, but it still might reach 17 million units with december, pokemon, FF III, right?
Clever Pun
Member
It's all about producing enough to meet demand. If they can do that....
Oh oh :lolioi said:
It seems kia is ahead of GAF's common sense by about 2 months
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=3623186&postcount=140
GaimeGuy said:
Well, no- I've just picked a random number out of the air that seems roughly feasible.
Before I'd go through month by month and try to estimate the weekly sales pattern with sales dropping to 50k by whenever then boosting back upto 150k then 450k and so on.
Now I just think it is pointless bothering as you really cannot use any past models or trends to predict what will happen next with the DS, it really is in a world of it's own now...
Actually 13.5M seems at the low end of what the DS should achieve. If the DS averages 150K through November(including this 262K week) that puts it at around 12.5M sold. It should then easily be able to do 2 million in the 5 weeks for December putting it at 14.5M. To be honest right not looks as if the weekly average will be above 150K a week for the rest of the year, possibly even around 200K a week. That would put it at 14.5M with December to go.ioi said:
And you gotta remember this time last year the DS was averaging less than 35K a week, a fraction of what it doing right now. In fact it was this week last year the DS finally passed 1M YTD. Considering this year the system is averaging 4 or 5 times what it did last year you'd have to say that this December will top last years, and should do so handily. Of course in doing so it would mean record breaking sales for any territory for a system.
That does present a real logistical problem though. If the pattern keeps up the DS should theoretically be doing 8-10 Million in December alone. Now sure, that's probably unlikey, but even 4 million is a logistical nightmare. With the way the DS appeals to entirely different markets at the same time I would not write off any possibility. But it is definitely hard to say how that will pan out. I would say right now that 15M by year end is a lowball estimate. With a high end estimate being:
20 weeks @ 200K = 4M
5 weeks December @ 6M
Putting DS around 19.5 million by year end. (And yes, I know the theretical 8-10M would mean it smashes this
)LordPhlegm
Member
20 weeks averaging 200K a week? That seems rather high, but I rarely follow sales data.
Barf_the_Mog
powerless or are they? o_O
You have to think, though, that within those 20 weeks Pokemon, FF III, and a black DS will be released. Some weeks may be as low as 100,000 units, while others may be as high as 350,000.
There is no way that DS sell that much (6m in December alone), I personaly think 14.5m - 15m is a great estimate (more like 14.5m considering supply issues). It can sell a lot more if Nintendo can make 3m DS Lite units per month.heidern said:Actually 13.5M seems at the low end of what the DS should achieve. If the DS averages 150K through November(including this 262K week) that puts it at around 12.5M sold. It should then easily be able to do 2 million in the 5 weeks for December putting it at 14.5M. To be honest right not looks as if the weekly average will be above 150K a week for the rest of the year, possibly even around 200K a week. That would put it at 14.5M with December to go.
And you gotta remember this time last year the DS was averaging less than 35K a week, a fraction of what it doing right now. In fact it was this week last year the DS finally passed 1M YTD. Considering this year the system is averaging 4 or 5 times what it did last year you'd have to say that this December will top last years, and should do so handily. Of course in doing so it would mean record breaking sales for any territory for a system.
That does present a real logistical problem though. If the pattern keeps up the DS should theoretically be doing 8-10 Million in December alone. Now sure, that's probably unlikey, but even 4 million is a logistical nightmare. With the way the DS appeals to entirely different markets at the same time I would not write off any possibility. But it is definitely hard to say how that will pan out. I would say right now that 15M by year end is a lowball estimate. With a high end estimate being:
20 weeks @ 200K = 4M
5 weeks December @ 6M
Putting DS around 19.5 million by year end. (And yes, I know the theretical 8-10M would mean it smashes this
i cant wait to see the first day numbers for :
DS Atsumare! Power Pro-kun no DS Koushien
DS Crash Bandicoot Festival
DS Mario Basketball 3 vs 3
DS Mushiking: Road to Greatest Champion 2
DS Tamogotchi 2
all in the same day ( the 27th ) . next week well rock even more for the DS
DS Atsumare! Power Pro-kun no DS Koushien
DS Crash Bandicoot Festival
DS Mario Basketball 3 vs 3
DS Mushiking: Road to Greatest Champion 2
DS Tamogotchi 2
all in the same day ( the 27th ) . next week well rock even more for the DS
From the famous "Predictions for PSP sales by end of 2005" thread ...
I'm not trying to belittle early opinions of the PSP's sales forecast.
That said, I find it quite ironic that this statement could be given about the DS in Japan this year, and the only part people would disagree with is "they may not be that hard to find in August or September." FFIII in August and Pokemon in September.
Shortages until next Spring at the earliest seems almost a lock, now, in Japan.
Edit: I may be banned soon for accidentally bumping that old thread.
sonycowboy said:
I'm not trying to belittle early opinions of the PSP's sales forecast.
That said, I find it quite ironic that this statement could be given about the DS in Japan this year, and the only part people would disagree with is "they may not be that hard to find in August or September." FFIII in August and Pokemon in September.
Shortages until next Spring at the earliest seems almost a lock, now, in Japan.
Edit: I may be banned soon for accidentally bumping that old thread.
donny2112 said:From the famous "Predictions for PSP sales by end of 2005" thread ...
I'm not trying to belittle early opinions of the PSP's sales forecast.
That said, I find it quite ironic that this statement could be given about the DS in Japan this year, and the only part people would disagree with is "they may not be that hard to find in August or September." FFIII in August and Pokemon in September.
Shortages until next Spring at the earliest seems almost a lock, now, in Japan.
Edit: I may be banned soon for accidentally bumping that old thread.
lol, that Broshnat guy was spot on ;-)
This time last year, sales of 600K in December, 300K in May and 260K in July were impossible. It remains to be seen what other records it can break, but considering the increasing quality in the software I don't see why the idea of increasing DS sales should be written off. Over the next 10 weeks there's gonna be FFIII, Winning Eleven and the Black DS and Pokemon. On top of that there's things like Tamagotchi and Tales. Oh and of course the possiblity that Touch Generations will make further inroads. Who knows, maybe the cooking software will go on to sell a million, mostly to brand new DSers?kia said:
As for supply issues, no doubt they are the biggest factor in limiting things. But even with current levels they'd be able to hit 14.5M or more and yet Nintendo are upping production even now up from 1.5M to 2.2M. I think a good estimate is around 16.5M. That would need 175K a month(This 4 weeks average is virtually guaranteed to be above that due to this week) with a 3.5M December.
Clever Pun
Member
It still blows my mind that we are talking about perpetual shortages of the DS in Japan until NEXT spring.
What is the likelihood that Nintendo will be pushing 3 million in their production by the end of the year? Basically I'm wondering how long it takes to increase production on something like the DSL?
What is the likelihood that Nintendo will be pushing 3 million in their production by the end of the year? Basically I'm wondering how long it takes to increase production on something like the DSL?
A Link to the Past
Banned
IMO, Pokémon gamers haven't come over to the DS yet. When D/P comes out, sales for games aimed at younger gamers will increase by a lot. That's a definite for North America and Europe; I'm thinking games like Ice Age aren't doing as well on DS than on GBA because Pokémon gamers and Ice Age gamers are one group of gamers.
Thats exactly how I feel, but,I feel its even more pronounced in the States.A Link to the Past said:
It could be the thing that spurs the DS into insano levels in the U.S., becuase if NSMB is any sort of gauge,the demand may increase to stupid levels.
Its almost insane that the only thing seemingly limiting the amount of DS's sold, is sheer production capacity. If the DS takes off in the United States like I think it will when the Pokebomb hits, there is NO WAY IN HELL Nintendo can produce enough unts to fufill demand.
donny2112 said:From the famous "Predictions for PSP sales by end of 2005" thread ...
I'm not trying to belittle early opinions of the PSP's sales forecast.
That said, I find it quite ironic that this statement could be given about the DS in Japan this year, and the only part people would disagree with is "they may not be that hard to find in August or September." FFIII in August and Pokemon in September.
Shortages until next Spring at the earliest seems almost a lock, now, in Japan.
Edit: I may be banned soon for accidentally bumping that old thread.
Midas said:
That's funny. Because I actually thought the same as Midas when the PSP came out. Funny how it seems that statement LITERALLY applies to the NDS now. Uncanny.
Those workers at the plants gotta be working crazy overtime. I wonder if Nintendo pays them well?
Mr. Pointy
Member
I thought that too. The PSP just had that brilliant launch. But the DS got Nintendogs and that sealed it for me.heavenly said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
5 months * 4.3 weeks/month = 22-ish weeks.fresquito said:
Or to be more accurate, whenever we get the final hardware numbers tomorrow, that will be week 29, so there should be 23 more. Still, 7 million is a tall order. However, I find I've used that phrase before...
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=3003408&postcount=321
JoshuaJSlone said:
I also found this old image from March where I showed my estimate of weekly DS/L hardware sales in an attempt to come up with a yearly total. Clearly... not so correct.
They'll have to really push supply to have that many available... but I guess this week they were able to sell 100K over the norm, so who knows.Barf_The_Mog said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
(Double the post for double the avatar.)
They will produce 11m units till the end of the year at this pace (2.2m/month) and you think they will ship 7m of them in Japan? and only 4m to NA, Europe and other territories?heidern said:
Also December of last year was when the DS craze has begun, so its unaccurate to say because DS sales this year is at 4-5 times more than the same time last year (which its sales was weak and it hadn't exploded yet) then its sales in December should be around 4 times more than December of last year which put this December sales at your theoritical estimate of 8m-10m.
And finally I dont think there isn't (won't be) demand for DS to sell more than 14.5m but I think Nintendo cant supply enough units to do that. As I said if they ramp up production to 3m units per month, then its another story and we will see more sales but I dont think its going to happen.
PS. I'm the first one who predicted +14m LTD sales for DS at the end of the year
