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Media Create Sales 3/19 - 3/25
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
Smiles and Cries
Member
BrodiemanTTR said:No one else cares about Sonic bombing?!
Sonic needs at least a Silver at the Olympics to make a comeback
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
schuelma said:
The software library isn't radically different from the Gamecube. It is, however, a Gamecube that sells, which the previous Gamecube could not do.
Jasoncheng
Member
Cheesemeister said:
XDD
NDS Puyo-Puyo! 061214
PSP Puyo-Puyo! 070321
super funk
Member
AniHawk said:
The PS3 isnt dead, its just sleeping. Like a bear during the winter. So its hibernating. But as soon as Hot Shots Golf, er, i mean the spring comes, the bear will come out of hibernation and once again go back to eating the salmon. And if anyone doesnt get it, salmon is a metaphor for Nintendo.
Busaiku said:
It's really too early to tell with the Wii given the supply issues.
The DS shows no sign of really slowing down, so that will be difficult to catch.
The PS2 is ahead of the Wii by a couple of weeks on sales, but its hard to tell what part of that is the supply issue. We also really don't know what kind of legs Wii will have.
Eteric Rice
Member
Dr. Kitty Muffins said:
Actually, it's a lot different.
It has more 3rd party games.
Even if they are ports.
My Chemical Mouse
Banned
PSP sustaining 40k a week is impressive, When does Gundam Seed come out for it, should be a nice boost on the already impressive weekly numbers.
Man, i still remember when people were saying PSP would be dead by the end of 2006....WTF were they thinking?
PSP tracking well above last year this time.
2006 - 515,500
2007 - 645,474
Man, i still remember when people were saying PSP would be dead by the end of 2006....WTF were they thinking?
PSP tracking well above last year this time.
2006 - 515,500
2007 - 645,474
Cheesemeister
Member
This Week Sales:
Since 11/27/07:
17 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
11 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.
360 - Following the trend: 2-4k. Next Gen Avg = 9,754. Post Holiday Avg = 5,172.
Wii - FOLLOWING the trend: 58-75k. Next Gen Avg = 112,374. Post Holiday Avg = 72,307.
PS3 - Following the trend (post gundabump confirmed): 19-25k. Next Gen Avg = 37,535. Post Holiday Avg = 24,272.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
● The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. A week on week perspective (upper graph) actually shows a CONTINUED slide to oblivion. 2k-5k per week for the foreseeable future.
● PS3 returns to disappointing mediocrity (20k). Gundabump confirmed, nothing more. 19-25k for the next 6 weeks.
● Surprising-but-not-shocking week for the Wii. The Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments...and those shipments might just be getting larger, just as promised. Notice: the Wii's shortages have been so severe that this is only the 2nd week-on-week gain that the Wii has ever experienced--every other week has been heavily hit by shortages. Expect the averages to raise slightly. 60-80k for the next several weeks.
Side note:
Reduce expectations for Super Paper Mario's impact on Wii unit sales. Nintendo might be holding units back but they are already selling 100% of their production. A release like this cannot make them sell any more than they can produce. Rather, see the title as something as a validation for those that own the Wii for gaming (rather than non-gaming) purposes.
Expectations for 03/26-04/01
360 - 3k
Wii - 66k << under cut last week by 10k.
PS3 - 21k
This Week's Market Share:
Market Share Week-to-Week
Significant Notes:
● The Wii has had a 1 million unit lead on the PS3 for 4 weeks. (currently 1,115,861 lead)
● The Wii has never sold less than 44k in one week.
● The Wii is averaging 72k units in the 11 week post-holiday period.
● The PS3 is averaging 24k units in the 11 week post-holiday period.
● The Wii sold 3.69x the PS3 this week, and has 2.40x LTD.
● The Wii will break 2 million in Japan in less than 2 weeks.
● The PS3 is at least two months from breaking 1 million.
If sales repeated this week's results indefinitely, barring all other factors:
● The Wii will have a 1.5 million unit lead by the middle of May.
● The Wii will have a 2 million unit the end of July. Seriously.
● The Wii will have a 3 million unit lead by December 2008.
Since 11/27/07:
17 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
11 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.
360 - Following the trend: 2-4k. Next Gen Avg = 9,754. Post Holiday Avg = 5,172.
Wii - FOLLOWING the trend: 58-75k. Next Gen Avg = 112,374. Post Holiday Avg = 72,307.
PS3 - Following the trend (post gundabump confirmed): 19-25k. Next Gen Avg = 37,535. Post Holiday Avg = 24,272.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
● The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. A week on week perspective (upper graph) actually shows a CONTINUED slide to oblivion. 2k-5k per week for the foreseeable future.
● PS3 returns to disappointing mediocrity (20k). Gundabump confirmed, nothing more. 19-25k for the next 6 weeks.
● Surprising-but-not-shocking week for the Wii. The Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments...and those shipments might just be getting larger, just as promised. Notice: the Wii's shortages have been so severe that this is only the 2nd week-on-week gain that the Wii has ever experienced--every other week has been heavily hit by shortages. Expect the averages to raise slightly. 60-80k for the next several weeks.
Side note:
Reduce expectations for Super Paper Mario's impact on Wii unit sales. Nintendo might be holding units back but they are already selling 100% of their production. A release like this cannot make them sell any more than they can produce. Rather, see the title as something as a validation for those that own the Wii for gaming (rather than non-gaming) purposes.
Expectations for 03/26-04/01
360 - 3k
Wii - 66k << under cut last week by 10k.
PS3 - 21k
This Week's Market Share:
Market Share Week-to-Week
Code:
Date____ 360 Wii PS3
11/27-12/03: 25% 49% 26%
12/04-12/10: 24% 49% 27%
12/11-12/17: 21% 50% 29%
12/18-12/24: 17% 57% 26%
12/25-12/31: 16% 56% 28%
01/01-01/07: 15% 58% 27%
01/08-01/14: 14% 59% 27%
01/15-01/21: 14% 60% 26%
01/22-01/28: 13% 60% 26%
01/29-02/04: 13% 61% 26%
02/05-02/11: 13% 61% 26%
02/12-02/18: 13% 62% 26%
02/19-02/25: 12% 62% 25%
03/26-03/04: 12% 62% 26%
03/05-03/11: 12% 62% 26%
03/12-03/18: 11% 62% 26%
03/19-03/25: 11% 63% 26%Significant Notes:
● The Wii has had a 1 million unit lead on the PS3 for 4 weeks. (currently 1,115,861 lead)
● The Wii has never sold less than 44k in one week.
● The Wii is averaging 72k units in the 11 week post-holiday period.
● The PS3 is averaging 24k units in the 11 week post-holiday period.
● The Wii sold 3.69x the PS3 this week, and has 2.40x LTD.
● The Wii will break 2 million in Japan in less than 2 weeks.
● The PS3 is at least two months from breaking 1 million.
If sales repeated this week's results indefinitely, barring all other factors:
● The Wii will have a 1.5 million unit lead by the middle of May.
● The Wii will have a 2 million unit the end of July. Seriously.
● The Wii will have a 3 million unit lead by December 2008.
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
Eteric Rice said:Actually, it's a lot different.
It has more 3rd party games.
Even if they are ports.
While true, I was refering to the overall make-up of the library. Its still largely Gamecube sequels, licensed kids games and 3rd party games that appeal to the hardcore Nintendo niche. The main exception is that the party games have taken off like a rocket this go around with the casuals.
Chibbi Brady
Member
Wow, Sim City DS drops out of the top 50 altogether again. It did the same 2 weeks ago, only to jump back up to 13th last week. Definitely missed out on some sales becasue of the shortages, be interesting to see if it jump back up the charts next week.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
If Wii continues strong, it should be able to catch up with PS2. Here's an image using weekly numbers for PS2/GCN/PS3/Wii through 52 weeks. Notice around week 40 PS2 really has a lull. It never really got a holiday bump in Japan in 2000, because so much stock was being used for the launches in North America and Europe. Wii should be able to make a lot of ground up due to that.Busaiku said:
DS it will pretty easily pass up in the near future; in fact it did a few weeks ago by Famitsu's measure. However, as Saitou says, once it reaches the comparison point where DS really explodes (55 weeks or so) it will be hard to stay that way unless Wii itself has exploded and is selling 100K consistently.
Well, let's see, using MC's numbersjustchris said:
(GCN LTD - Wii LTD) / (Wii weekly)
(4,174,777 - 1,910,353) / (75,571)
2,264,424 / 75,571
29.96
30 weeks if it stays at this week's amount.
Looking at things another way, how much would Wii need average to pass GCN by the end of its first year as AniHawk said? Let's say by then GCN is up to 4.2 million maximum. This having been Wii's 17th week, there are 35 left until its first year ends.
(4,200,000 - 1,910,353) / 35
2,289,647 / 35
65418.49
So 65.5K each week on average.
But in this world, when the bear wakes up, the salmon are 25 feet tall!super funk said:
I actually do think PS3 japanese sales are absolutely unbelivable in light of:
1) Seemingly 0 enthusiam for Blu-Ray vs. some in US;
2) The fact the it is absolutely clear now that the only Japanese-oriented games you are ever gonna get on it are the rather meager first party offerings and the MGS4 and FF13. This IS a different ballgame than buying it for Western-oriented stuff (which they cannot be doing too by the looks of software sales);
1) Seemingly 0 enthusiam for Blu-Ray vs. some in US;
2) The fact the it is absolutely clear now that the only Japanese-oriented games you are ever gonna get on it are the rather meager first party offerings and the MGS4 and FF13. This IS a different ballgame than buying it for Western-oriented stuff (which they cannot be doing too by the looks of software sales);
Eteric Rice
Member
Dr. Kitty Muffins said:
You're partially right, but what do you expect? It is (after all) the successor of the Gamecube. Final Fantasy XIII and MGS4 are sequels to PS2 franchises, yet I see no complaints.
The more unique games will take a little time, though we already have a few.
As for third party, SSX Blur, Godfather, etc, aren't aimed at the Nintendo fans. To be honest, there aren't many titles that Nintendo fans would jump on from third parties (cept Trauma Center and maybe Elebits). As for the kids games, they are part of the casual audience. You'd be surprised how much something like "Cars" sells.
Vinnk said:
Thanks Vinnk. Your report really deliver. Especially about the Blue Dragon Edition X360, which no one asked about, but you reported anyway.
Poor Jusco and Best Denki. They need to clear up their PS3 stock.
And I believe your #4 report confirm that : used-copy games really eat into new-copy games sales. BTW, I have never sold any of my games copy to the market. I sometime sell them to relatives, but only occasionally.
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
Eteric Rice said:
Well, to be frank, I didn't expect more of the same since the last console (a mild failure) was such an obvious turnoff to those who didn't buy a cube. It doesn't matter though. Obviously Nintendo only needed to somehow change perceptions and they didnt need to do that by changing their software make-up. I just find it curious to see those who bitched about the type of games on the cube who now sing the Wii's praises having no problem with the same type of content. It says alot about some types of gamers.
Dr. Kitty Muffins said:
The same can be said of the PS3. It works wonder eh?
A system's library is defined by what sells. Wii Sports and Wii Play are million sellers. It's pretty likely, and in some case with certainty, that Wii Music, Wii Health, DQS, Mario and Sonic, will sell. None of these games were on the GC.
Okay, I'm calling it in Japan. I have been hesitant, but with the Wii actually going up in sales with nothing coming out in Japan, It's now painfully obvious that its supply constrained.
I will go as far to state here and now that if this continues at this pace, and gets even worse for Sony, (This is my own personal opinion) that the up-coming FF game will, without a doubt be ported to the Wii within short order, or all-together moved to the Wii that may sound bold, and it may even sound ridiculous given the already extended dev time, but its not due to launch anytime soon, and S-E would be flat-out reatrded, and throwing hordes of cash/sales down the toilet by not going with the Wii on this one. You cannot send out a premiere title to die in the forest, and porting it to the 360 wont help matters either.
Japan is a lost cuase for Sony at this point. The trend is almost identical for that of the DS/PSP when the DS took off. I just cannot see how S-E would throw piles of money, and copies sold down the toilet. It's not even about moneyhas either. If a small % of people actully buy the game, as opposed to other FF games, you could actually hurt the luster of the series by having such low sales.
There I said it, and I am going to stick with it.
I will go as far to state here and now that if this continues at this pace, and gets even worse for Sony, (This is my own personal opinion) that the up-coming FF game will, without a doubt be ported to the Wii within short order, or all-together moved to the Wii that may sound bold, and it may even sound ridiculous given the already extended dev time, but its not due to launch anytime soon, and S-E would be flat-out reatrded, and throwing hordes of cash/sales down the toilet by not going with the Wii on this one. You cannot send out a premiere title to die in the forest, and porting it to the 360 wont help matters either.
Japan is a lost cuase for Sony at this point. The trend is almost identical for that of the DS/PSP when the DS took off. I just cannot see how S-E would throw piles of money, and copies sold down the toilet. It's not even about moneyhas either. If a small % of people actully buy the game, as opposed to other FF games, you could actually hurt the luster of the series by having such low sales.
There I said it, and I am going to stick with it.
Wow, I think you're insane, but kudos for taking a stand. We shall see. I do think Japan is about to largely shift development to the Wii, but I can't see FF moving over after so much money has already been poured into it.
moku said:
moku said:
I'd just like to point out... How many serious Square-Enix efforts have been on the PSP? Plenty of PSP games do well, it's just up the developers to take that chance. Just like the upcoming Crisis Core, FFXIII will do well regardless of the situation the PS3 is in at the time of it's release.
I definitely see DQ titles on Nintendo systems for the time being. Dragon Quest X will probably be a Wii title with some DS/Wii connectivity, my guess. Final Fantasy... I dunno. Nomura's a graphics whore. At least, that's my understanding. And it is at least a surefire hit on the PS3 rather than the Wii (which is unproven for hardcore games in Japan) or 360 (where it would only sell in America)
Cheesemeister
Member
moku said:
Noted for later.
Clever Pun
Member
just wanted to say thanks to Vinnk and JoshuaJSlone for their continuously awesome posts.
but Moku:
but Moku:
Smiles and Cries
Member
AniHawk said:
DQ not going to the leading platform would be a change in policy thats for sure
I still don't expect FF on Wii
There is no way they can put the current project on Wii no matter how you look at it since they made White Engine for powerful next-generation consoles. The only thing they could do is release the original version they were making for PS2 on Wii but that would not change the FF project on PS3.
Avalon said:
PSP SE games:
Final Fantasy I
Final Fantasy II
Final Fantasy Tactics
Final Fantasy VII: Crisis Core
Itadaki Street
Valkyrie Profile: Lenneth
DS SE games:
Final Fantasy III
Final Fantasy Fables: Chocobo Tales
Final Fantasy Tactics Advance 2
Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles
Final Fantasy XII: Revenant Wings
Mario Hoops
Itadaki Street DS
Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime
Dragon Quest IX
Dragon Quest Monsters Joker
Children of Mana
Heroes of Mana
Front Mission 1st
It's a Wonderful World
Egg Monster Hero
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
I don't know about FF13 going to the Wii, but I think it's time we call this for the Wii in Japan.
Smiles and Cries
Member
AniHawk said:
SE likes money