Support NeoGAF

[donny2112]

Until we see what those 90 million PS2 have decided when they upgrade to a next-(current) gen console, we can not declare a winner this gen.

You (incorrectly) assume that 90 million PS2 owners will upgrade.

Spoiler

No, I'm not talking sideways about the Wii.

True casuals can drop video game playing as easy as picking it up and have no brand loyalty. If they decide to get a new video game system (Why would they if there are no games worth the entry cost to them? Wii included.), it'll likely be a "just get what everyone else has" purchase. They don't care about any video game brand. Mario? Sly? Ratchet? Blinx? Just give me generic movie game A, please.

 

[sphinx]

You (incorrectly) assume that 90 million PS2 owners will upgrade.

Spoiler

No, I'm not talking sideways about the Wii.

True casuals can drop video game playing as easy as picking it up and have no brand loyalty. If they decide to get a new video game system (Why would they if there are no games worth the entry cost to them? Wii included.), it'll likely be a "just get what everyone else has" purchase. They don't care about any video game brand. Mario? Sly? Ratchet? Blinx? Just give me generic movie game A, please.

.- Those 90 million PS2 users never upgrading is one possibility.
.- Those users getting a Wii instead of a PS3/360 at some point is another one.
.- Buying ps3 down the line in late 2008 or 2009 after a price reductiion and worthy games are available is another one.

Any console can attract casuals if the manufacturer can figure out what combination of elements will lure them to buy their product. Wii figured it out fast and easy with the wiimote. PS3 and 360 sure made one big mistake which has to do with price. They are surely realizing that high entry prices and video game consoles don't combine very well. They can react in accordance to that and try something different. They can announce a " PS3 deluxe " in 2008 together with FFXIII in japan, that could help.

the main question here is: Will sony REACT? . They can but Sony gaming division seams like a mess now, noone taking responsability for anything.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Hasn't this discussion happened hundreds of times by now? Trends don't just turn around once they're cemented. The PS2 owners wanting to upgrade in two years ago won't make their decisions completely independently of what the PS2 owners now upgrading are doing.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

the main question here is: Can sony REACT? Is it too late or not ?

Fixed.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Hasn't this discussion happened hundreds of times by now? Trends don't just turn around once they're cemented. The PS2 owners wanting to upgrade in two years ago won't make their decisions completely independently of what the PS2 owners now upgrading are doing.

Yes, but we're bored. There hasn't been a good megaton in forever.

 

[turtle553]

I don't care as much about the crazy predictions, just the part where he claims that this is all part of Sony's plan. Not to be successful right away, but to wait a few years for the PS3 to start.

 

[birdchili]

There hasn't been a good megaton in forever.

pre e3/summer lull? calm before the storm, hopefully.

i know at least one me that's itchin' for a reason or three to buy a new console...

 

[nli10]

I don't care as much about the crazy predictions, just the part where he claims that this is all part of Sony's plan. Not to be successful right away, but to wait a few years for the PS3 to start.

It was part of Sony's plan, but they expected the PSP to blow the DS out of the water and create positive PS3 buzz. In reality the PS3 is selling the now cheaper PSP.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

I'd like some of the GAF analysts to rant on the following thing:

there are more than 100-110 milliion PS2 in houses right know. that's roughly 90 million that HAVE NOT upgraded and bought a next-gen console. PS2 being very strong console right now is holding everything back.

the scenario portrayed by the ps3forum guy isn't out of the question, no matter how hard GAF laughs at it. A tad too optimistic but not delusional. Until we see what those 90 million PS2 have decided when they upgrade to a next-(current) gen console, we can not declare a winner this gen.

Who knows what will happen with a well placed price drop. Have a killer app and a price drop and anything could happen.

By focusing on the 90 million PS2 gamers, you lose sight of what caused them to buy a PS2 in the first place. Games, price, other smaller factors. A big portion of current PS2 gamers jumped in after a price drop. PS3 sales suggest price is a huge factor. It can also be argued that price, in comparison to the competitors, play a part. Furthermore, HW manufacturers can do a lot to prevent people from buying their product, ie poor reliability. So, you can't predict where the industry will move but the Wii is in the best position in terms of price, ability to lower the price, and hw sales to attract devs. They have a price advantage in development. All things that helped the PS1 blow up.

 

[P90]

Yes, but we're bored. There hasn't been a good megaton in forever.

There will when M@#4 is announced to be ported to the 360. :lol

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

There will when M@#4 is announced to be ported to the 360. :lol

I thought this was already announced... Perhaps it was something else. I dind't remember ...

 

[Parl]

In a sense, the Wii/PS3/360 battle has already happened.

Wii = PS1
PS3 = N64
360 = Saturn with money

One console wasn't expected to do well, was significantly less powerful, ended up having a lower price overall. Another was much more powerful, and was widely regarded as the best candidate to win based on two previous winning generations. The other is a console that came after some losses, except MS has done a much better job all round compared to Sega (and had more money).

(This as all been said before however).

 

[Cygnus X-1]

In a sense, the Wii/PS3/360 battle has already happened.

Wii = PS1
PS3 = N64
360 = Saturn with money

One console wasn't expected to do well, was significantly less powerful, ended up having a lower price overall. Another was much more powerful, and was widely regarded as the best candidate to win based on two previous winning generations. The other is a console that came after some losses, except MS has done a much better job all round compared to Sega (and had more money).

(This as all been said before however).

What I find incredible is that Sony hasn't learned anything from these past console-cycles.

 

[The_lascar]

In a sense, the Wii/PS3/360 battle has already happened.

Wii = PS1
PS3 = N64
360 = Saturn with money

One console wasn't expected to do well, was significantly less powerful, ended up having a lower price overall. Another was much more powerful, and was widely regarded as the best candidate to win based on two previous winning generations. The other is a console that came after some losses, except MS has done a much better job all round compared to Sega (and had more money).

(This as all been said before however).

Wii >>> PS1
Saturn >>>>> 360

 

[donny2112]

Wii = PS1

That comparison rubs me the wrong way. I don't think you'll ever have to set your Wii upside down to get it to play. :/ I think this whole generation is more comparable to the last one than two generations ago.

WII = PS2
360 = XBX
PS3 = GCN

Obviously it won't stay that way forever, because the GameCube was never $600, though.

 

[Eteric Rice]

That comparison rubs me the wrong way. I don't think you'll ever have to set your Wii upside down to get it to play. :/ I think this whole generation is more comparable to the last one than two generations ago.

WII = PS2
360 = XBX
PS3 = GCN

Obviously it won't stay that way forever, because the GameCube was never $600, though.

Well, it might. Really, it depends on how the companies go about it.

 

[BrodiemanTTR]

I doubt we will ever see a disaster on the level of the Virtual Boy ever again.

2009, believe.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

In a sense, the Wii/PS3/360 battle has already happened.

Wii = PS1
PS3 = N64
360 = Saturn with money

One console wasn't expected to do well, was significantly less powerful, ended up having a lower price overall. Another was much more powerful, and was widely regarded as the best candidate to win based on two previous winning generations. The other is a console that came after some losses, except MS has done a much better job all round compared to Sega (and had more money).

(This as all been said before however).

Wasn't the Saturn more popular than the N64 in Japan, and a total flop in NA? Wasn't the N64 very successful in NA? I think last gen is a much better analogy to this gen.

 

[test_account]

2009, believe.

If u mean cancelation of PS3 it still wouldnt be close to VB Still huge, but not compared to salenumbers. How many VB were sold? Atari Jaguar was also a pretty big disaster. According to info that i've found on the internet it sold like 500.000.

 

[sphinx]

Hasn't this discussion happened hundreds of times by now? Trends don't just turn around once they're cemented. The PS2 owners wanting to upgrade in two years ago won't make their decisions completely independently of what the PS2 owners now upgrading are doing.

I don't get this.. PS2 owners wanting to upgrade 2 years ago?? Do you mean " from now"?

I agree trends don't turn around once cemented but are Trends cemented already?

I think January - February 2008 is the crucial checkpoint in the console race. If Wii continues its supremacy by that time in spite of Halo 3, Sony's 1st party efforts, the consoles getting price drops and massive holidays advertising, then yeah Wii has an undisputed win for this gen.

Call me delusional but I don't think the gates are closed yet. Now, Sony and Microsoft being absolute morons and not doing anything about their situation is another story.

 

[AniHawk]

I doubt we will ever see a disaster on the level of the Virtual Boy ever again.

What about the DS. TWO SCREENS? What are they thinking?! :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

If u mean cancelation of PS3 it still wouldnt be close to VB Still huge, but not compared to salenumbers. How many VB were sold? Atari Jaguar was also a pretty big disaster. According to info that i've found on the internet it sold like 500.000.

Virtual Boy sales at non-clearance price - 60,000. Additional sales at clearance - 60,000. Total sales - 120,000. It was a goddam disaster.

I think his 2009 is more referring to SEGA's new console, which will be arriving in 2009, will not be a disaster, and will feature in its launch lineup the sequel to that SEGA game you really loved.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

2009, believe.

:lol :lol

 

[Parl]

What about the DS. TWO SCREENS? What are they thinking?! :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

I heard that less than 1% of people have bought one in TWO AND A HALF YEARS. Kids make up much more than that.

 

[test_account]

Virtual Boy sales at non-clearance price - 60,000. Additional sales at clearance - 60,000. Total sales - 120,000. It was a goddam disaster.

I think his 2009 is more referring to SEGA's new console, which will be arriving in 2009, will not be a disaster, and will feature in its launch lineup the sequel to that SEGA game you really loved.

Damn.. thats really low numbers indeed.

New Sega console eh? Who knows hehe, i wouldnt mind tho

 

[BrodiemanTTR]

and will feature in its launch lineup the sequel to that SEGA game you really loved.

At last. :lol

 

[nli10]

I think his 2009 is more referring to SEGA's new console, which will be arriving in 2009, will not be a disaster, and will feature in its launch lineup the sequel to that SEGA game you really loved.

ALEX KIDD NEXT GEN!!!!

B leave

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I don't get this.. PS2 owners wanting to upgrade 2 years ago?? Do you mean " from now"?

Yeah, my bad. Like Merlin I live time backwards, so these sorts of things happen.

I agree trends don't turn around once cemented but are Trends cemented already?

Are there any historical instances where they weren't by the time all systems had been out more than half a year?

I think January - February 2008 is the crucial checkpoint in the console race. If Wii continues its supremacy by that time in spite of Halo 3, Sony's 1st party efforts, the consoles getting price drops and massive holidays advertising, then yeah Wii has an undisputed win for this gen.

Well, I thought we were just talking about Japan, where Halo 3 won't matter, PS3 is already the cheapest it is anywhere in the world, and PS3 sales tripling would still mean it's falling behind the Wii by tens of thousands each week.

 

[John Harker]

There will when M@#4 is announced to be ported to the 360. :lol

why do people keep saying this?
of course MGS4 is coming to the x360. MG series comes out for every system. this is not new.

and yes to original guy, no megatons in awhile. people getting bored and restless. its a hostile environment these non-e3 summers. im glad i know all i do at work or id go nuts too

 

[sphinx]

Are there any historical instances where they weren't by the time all systems had been out more than half a year?

perhaps you can tell, I honestly don't know. How was it between the N64 and PS1? both JPN only and worldwide.

Well, I thought we were just talking about Japan, where Halo 3 won't matter, PS3 is already the cheapest it is anywhere in the world, and PS3 sales tripling would still mean it's falling behind the Wii by tens of thousands each week.

Japan is the worst case for Sony. Nintendo not noly provides the better value with their products but completely dominates in mindshare. Is NES or SNES all over again. Nintendo's presence in japan is so overwhelming that people hardly consider turning around to look for other options.

I still think things might change, I don't know by how or to what extend in sony's favor but I refuse to believe that japanese will not react to stellar software and a price drop. I might say I believe the same applies worldwide, that's why I don't think everything is cemented.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Are there any historical instances where they weren't by the time all systems had been out more than half a year?

Only one that I know of, but for entirely different circumstances.

I believe the Genesis had a higher WW install base than the SNES for a while before the SNES eventually overtook it.

 

[Phife Dawg]

I don't get this.. PS2 owners wanting to upgrade 2 years ago?? Do you mean " from now"?

I agree trends don't turn around once cemented but are Trends cemented already?

I think January - February 2008 is the crucial checkpoint in the console race. If Wii continues its supremacy by that time in spite of Halo 3, Sony's 1st party efforts, the consoles getting price drops and massive holidays advertising, then yeah Wii has an undisputed win for this gen.

Call me delusional but I don't think the gates are closed yet. Now, Sony and Microsoft being absolute morons and not doing anything about their situation is another story.

Japan is pretty much a lost cause for MS. Sony is struggling and fail to put out any compelling software. I say if Sony doesn't totally blow away the competition at TGS (which I think is pretty unlikely given that most big games are western centric) Japan is sealed.

The Americas are more open though I don't think Sony has a big chance there either. By phasing out the 20gig they pretty much forced themselves into a corner. I don't think even a 100,- $ price drop would kick start sales. It all depends on how Sony will market their new software titles. But other than SOCOM to an extent they don't have much drawing power being new franchises. 360 has both GTAIV and Halo3 and thus an advantage.

So I think it'll be more of a race between Wii and 360.

Sony still has good chances in Europe since 360 isn't anything to write home about around here. But since Wii is also competing for that first/second place I don't think we'll see the domination Sony once had over Europe. Remember Europe in general is a very price sensitive market.

Does that mean it's all set and done? I don't think so as well but I can guarantee one thing, Sony won't come out on top like they did last gen, there will be no magical turning around to the dominant Sony we knew. At best they can keep this race close and come out on top in Europe and give the 360 a run for it's money in the Americas.

 

[Deku]

Japan is pretty much a lost cause for MS. Sony is struggling and fail to put out any compelling software. I say if Sony doesn't totally blow away the competition at TGS (which I think is pretty unlikely given that most big games are western centric) Japan is sealed.

With all due respect I don't think this needs to be repeated every week. Everyone knows, it's a bit condescending at this point.

 

[Sharp]

It really doesn't. MC threads should go back to being 15 posts long.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

With all due respect I don't think this needs to be repeated every week. Everyone knows, it's a bit condescending at this point.

You're right. It happens every week though. A troll pops in on the weekend, says black is white and up is down, and everyone rushes to correct them. 50 posts in it's dead obvious that the troll is in fact a troll, but the thread is already ruined. Somehow the troll doesn't get banned most of the time either, which I don't get.

This week was different though. The troll was pro Nintendo.

 

[mabuza]

You're right. It happens every week though. A troll pops in on the weekend, says black is white and up is down, and everyone rushes to correct them. 50 posts in it's dead obvious that the troll is in fact a troll, but the thread is already ruined. Somehow the troll doesn't get banned most of the time either, which I don't get.

This week was different though. The troll was pro Nintendo.

this post is a joke right?

 

[Deku]

It really doesn't. MC threads should go back to being 15 posts long.

It's only 11 pages for me

You're right. It happens every week though. A troll pops in on the weekend, says black is white and up is down, and everyone rushes to correct them. 50 posts in it's dead obvious that the troll is in fact a troll, but the thread is already ruined. Somehow the troll doesn't get banned most of the time either, which I don't get.

This week was different though. The troll was pro Nintendo.

the tard? I think he's someone's joke account.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

this post is a joke right?

Read through the past few. See for yourself.

Media Create Sales 4/9 - 4/15
Media Create Sales 4/16 - 4/22
Media Create Sales 4/23 - 4/29
Media Create Sales 4/30 - 5/6
Media Create Sales 5/14 - 5/20
Media Create Sales 5/21 - 5/27

 

[mabuza]

Read through the past few. See for yourself.

Media Create Sales 4/9 - 4/15
Media Create Sales 4/16 - 4/22
Media Create Sales 4/23 - 4/29
Media Create Sales 4/30 - 5/6
Media Create Sales 5/14 - 5/20
Media Create Sales 5/21 - 5/27

you eshpect me to read through all of them? the **** is wrong wit u?

 

[Grampa Simpson]

you eshpect me to read through all of them? the **** is wrong wit u?

You asked. Also, are you typing with a lisp?

 

[Deku]

:lol ok i take it all back.

 

[Gaborn]

Slightly off topic but I noticed that last week Cheesemeister changed his second graph from referring to the life to date of the console to just as "consoles." Obviously not a major change (I missed it last week when the first post was made and would've assumed it started this week if not for bmf's post just now) but was there any explanation for the small change? I know it doesn't alter anything major, actually it probably clarifies things for people who don't understand the acronym, but was that all there was to it?

 

[Cheesemeister]

Slightly off topic but I noticed that last week Cheesemeister changed his second graph from referring to the life to date of the console to just as "consoles." Obviously not a major change (I missed it last week when the first post was made and would've assumed it started this week if not for bmf's post just now) but was there any explanation for the small change? I know it doesn't alter anything major, actually it probably clarifies things for people who don't understand the acronym, but was that all there was to it?

Since the LTD pie chart wasn't changing much week-to-week, I'm now displaying the weekly marketshare for the 3 consoles instead.

 

[Neo C.]

What I find incredible is that Sony hasn't learned anything from these past console-cycles.

They have learned the wrong lesson. Well, if everyone came to the right conclusion by looking in the past, we wouldn't see so many repeating mistakes in the politics.

The way Sony has taken wasn't irrational: The success of their past consoles came always along with a new storage medium (CD, DVD). From their point of view, it is logical the introduce a new medium again (Blu-Ray). Their past consoles also made a jump in terms of graphic, so there were never a possibility to create something like the Wii with such a small jump of performance.
Without a doubt their mistake is not looking after the price.

 

[Gaborn]

Since the LTD pie chart wasn't changing much week-to-week, I'm now displaying the weekly marketshare for the 3 consoles instead.

Ahhhhh, THAT explains it! much more useful than I thought at first glance, thanks very much!

 

[Walter Matthau]

Virtual Boy sales at non-clearance price - 60,000. Additional sales at clearance - 60,000. Total sales - 120,000. It was a goddam disaster.

I think his 2009 is more referring to SEGA's new console, which will be arriving in 2009, will not be a disaster, and will feature in its launch lineup the sequel to that SEGA game you really loved.

I've been waiting for the sequel to that SEGA game I really loved.

 

[Axord]

With all due respect I don't think this needs to be repeated every week. Everyone knows, it's a bit condescending at this point.

For m-c thread regulars, sure, that's the consensus. But a think plenty of others aren't paying attention and may wander in randomly, still.

Sony fans really never had a reason to follow or understand the numbers before.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Sony fans really never had a reason to follow or understand the numbers before.

Archived MC threads say otherwise. Sony fans used to come in and use Sony domination as an unscalable ivory tower from which they could fire arrows at Gahiggidy and other insane N-fans... much like what happens now, but in reverse.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Archived MC threads say otherwise. Sony fans used to come in and use Sony domination as an unscalable ivory tower from which they could fire arrows at Gahiggidy and other insane N-fans... much like what happens now, but in reverse.

It's a nice change of pace.

 

[felipeko]

It's a nice change of pace.

Something like that:

PSP software sales are horrible. End of story. There's no 'compared to DS' because by ANY standards PSP software has been extremely sluggish, ESPECIALLY if you're talking about Japan.

*pulls out the Moster Hunter Freedom card*
A great game and also a popular one will sell.

Isn't what N-fans used to say? :lol