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[charlequin]

I see, but when will X be ready to release? Holiday 2011? Anything later and it'll be out on a dead platform as it is right now. Wont that hurt the sales significantly?

Not really. It's Dragon Quest. People aren't going to buy it to have something random to play that week; they're going to buy it because it's a huge national event. They'll take their Wiis out of the closet and dust them off for that. (Even better if there's a Wii 2 already out or coming out soon that's BC with the original Wii.)

DQX will most likely stick on Wii; it's more interesting to talk about DQXI. 3DS?

It's not that interesting to talk about since it's just a proxy for "what system will be the most successful system in 2014." Only one of what will probably be five total next-gen handhelds and consoles has been announced yet, so it's a bit early to have that conversation. :lol

 

[Kinan]

What a terrible Move launch...

08. / 00. [PS3] Beat Sketch! (SCE) - 22.165 / NEW

Of all move games, the most selling is a "non-game" ...

 

[Takao]

Clearly DQX is Wii/PSP to be on two increasingly irrelevant platforms at once!

 

[farnham]

Clearly DQX is Wii/PSP to be on two increasingly irrelevant platforms at once!

when was this announced ?

 

[Takao]

when was this announced ?

I was joking.

 

[Metroid Killer]

Not really. It's Dragon Quest. People aren't going to buy it to have something random to play that week; they're going to buy it because it's a huge national event. They'll take their Wiis out of the closet and dust them off for that. (Even better if there's a Wii 2 already out or coming out soon that's BC with the original Wii.)

Which was sorta my point. With Dragon Quest being Dragon Quest wouldn't Iwata be much more interested in having the title as a launch title for Wii2, compared to being released on a sinking ship? Or do you think that a BC Wii2 would be pushed by it anyway (assuming DQX will be released relatively close to the launch of Wii2)?

It made sense to release big title on PS2 even after the next gen took off, because the PS2 managed to find it's niche and remain strong, but with the Wii doing as poorly as it is, I would imagine that Nintendo can't wait to ditch it and get some steam going for Wii2.

I guess my qustion is how much Iwata can/want affect the DQX release?

 

[Boney]

The only way DQX would come out for Wii 2, it'd have to be delayed 5 more years... at least 5 years.

 

[Rolf NB]

12. / 00. [PS3] Time Crisis: Razing Storm (Bandai Namco) - 12.653 / NEW
16. / 00. [PS3] Resident Evil 5: Gold Edition (Move Special Pack) (Capcom) - 9.399 / NEW
19. / 00. [PS3] Sports Champions (SCE) - 6.349 / NEW

Interesting split for initial Move software sales. Light gun extravaganza > pointer-enhanced version of traditional gamepad game > genuine motion control game. Kinda how I've come to feel about the Wii, heh.

Pretty low numbers all around though. Needs moar install base.

Beat Sketch! is bundled with the Move controller in Japan, right? I assume that's why it placed as high.

 

[farnham]

Which was sorta my point. With Dragon Quest being Dragon Quest wouldn't Iwata be much interested in having the title as a launch title for Wii2 compared to being released on a sinking ship. Or do you think that A BC Wii2 would be pushed by it anyway (assuming DQX will be released relatively close to the launch of Wii2).

It made sense to release big title on PS2 even after the next gen took off, because the PS2 managed to find it's niche and remain strong, but with the Wii doing as poorly as it is, I would imagine that Nintendo can't wait to ditch it and get some steam going for Wii2.

I guess my qustion is how much Iwata can affect DQX release?

not at all
he should be grateful that hori even considered putting dqx on wii

 

[Hellion]

I could see people trading in vanquish...

Still need to pick up Ninja Storm 2. I'm happy for Cyber Connect 2.

 

[duckroll]

Argh! Forgot to get my predictions in for next week. Oh well.

Was too busy playing New Vegas. ;_;

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Unbelievable SCEJ did nothing for the launch of MOVE. If there was a new MnG game + Move bundle, it would've been quite different. Or, let Claphanz make Japan's Sports Champions. They have zero effort this generation.

They are busy doing superb boxarts for SCEE games:

 

[SlipperySlope]

this is not going to happen

simply because armor project does not want to publish on systems that dont have an adequate userbase.

It could perhaps be a multi-release. Like Zelda TP did. Release on Wii, Wii 2, and 3DS at the same time?

Edit - This would be a benefit to both Nintendo and SE. It would sell more copies, and at the same time help promote the new systems. Seems win/win to me.

 

[dolemite]

Does it mean that Move bombaed in Japan? The sales bump is negative after all.

 

[Takao]

They are busy doing superb boxarts for SCEE games:

Hahaha, what the hell is that? Start the Party: Crayon Shin-Chan edition?

 

[SlipperySlope]

Does it mean that Move bombaed in Japan? The sales bump is negative after all.

Seems like it. I'm especially surprised how low Sports Champions is. Wii Party outsold it.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Congratulations to Road twice! That's a seriously impressive result in the points rankings.

Results 	By Units 		By Points 	
1 	31666 	Road 			 20,81% 	Road 	
2 	44727 	FINALFANTASYDOG 	120,74% 	FINALFANTASYDOG 	
3 	52000 	Spiegel 		149,86% 	Chris1964 	
4 	62813 	Chris1964 		150,64% 	MemoirsofMimi 	
5 	79000 	Kurosaki Ichigo 	155,22% 	The_lascar 	
6 	79469 	MemoirsofMimi 		165,62% 	Spiegel 	
7 	90000 	Aru 			175,42% 	Kurosaki Ichigo 	
8 	90000 	The_lascar  		213,05% 	Aru 	
9 	117000 	Orgen 			267,92% 	duckroll 	
10 	129000 	duckroll 		366,39% 	Orgen 	
	
10/18-10/24 	Sales 	Chris 	Memoi 	Road 	Spieg 	Orgen 	Aru 	Kuro 	duckr 	The_l 	FINAL 	
WII Super Mario 308000 	345678 	361453 	333333 	300000 	342000 	270000 	330000 	375000 	260000 	300082 	
PS3 Naruto 2 	64000 	67890 	72345 	66666 	75000 	77000 	53000 	90000 	95000 	85000 	84343 	
PS3 Vanquish 	48000 	56789 	53765 	44444 	70000 	91000 	75000 	70000 	60000 	60000 	57034 	
360 Vanquish 	11000 	23456 	22906 	11111 	22000 	38000 	25000 	20000 	30000 	20000 	18432 	

Difference 	0 	62813 	79469 	31666 	52000 	117000 	90000 	79000 	129000 	90000 	44727 	
Difference (%) 	0,00% 	149,86% 150,64% 20,81% 	165,62% 366,39% 213,05% 175,42% 267,92% 155,22% 120,74% 	

WII Super Mario 0 	37678 	53453 	25333 	-8000 	34000 	-38000 	22000 	67000 	-48000 	-7918 	
PS3 Naruto 2 	0 	3890 	8345 	2666 	11000 	13000 	-11000 	26000 	31000 	21000 	20343 	
PS3 Vanquish 	0 	8789 	5765 	-3556 	22000 	43000 	27000 	22000 	12000 	12000 	9034 	
360 Vanquish 	0 	12456 	11906 	111 	11000 	27000 	14000 	9000 	19000 	9000 	7432

Past Predictions Results:
10/04-10/10 Predictions Results
09/27-10/03 Predictions Results
09/13-09/19 Predictions Results

 

[jett]

Nintendo's just printing money with that rom collection.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Nintendo's just printing money with that rom collection.

not even a rom collection, it's literally just a single rom

 

[AranhaHunter]

It could perhaps be a multi-release. Like Zelda TP did. Release on Wii, Wii 2, and 3DS at the same time?

Edit - This would be a benefit to both Nintendo and SE. It would sell more copies, and at the same time help promote the new systems. Seems win/win to me.

I'm not sure if this is a serious post or not..... :/

 

[farnham]

not even a rom collection, it's literally just a single rom

also its not even the later released refined rom

 

[A Twisty Fluken]

not even a rom collection, it's literally just a single rom

Though in his defense it's collection.rom

 

[Road]

Congratulations to Road twice! That's a seriously impressive result in the points rankings.

I cheated.

 

[duckroll]

So I guess with Vanquish totally bombing worldwide, Mikami is going back into retirement? Looks like those people saying Vanquish would be the next Godhand were more correct than they expected! :lol

 

[Chris1964]

If azalyn's 300k initial shipment is correct Mario never received a second shipment. Dengeki and/or Media Create will give the sellthrough and it must be very high.

Only Nintendo could have a shortage with this game.

Ah, and Sega was expecting 1-1,5m for Vanquish :lol

 

[duckroll]

To quantify how big of a bomb Vanquish is. I should point out that Bayonetta on Xbox360, sold more in the first week in Japan, than Vanquish did combined. :lol

 

[donny2112]

Congratulations to Road twice! That's a seriously impressive result in the points rankings.

Note to all: Pick one number per title and stick with it.

 

[sixteen-bit]

So I guess with Vanquish totally bombing worldwide, Mikami is going back into retirement?

we must stop that from happening

 

[BlazingDarkness]

To quantify how big of a bomb Vanquish is. I should point out that Bayonetta on Xbox360, sold more in the first week in Japan, than Vanquish did combined. :lol

wow.

 

[Stumpokapow]

If azalyn's 300k initial shipment is correct Mario never received a second shipment. Dengeki and/or Media Create will give the sellthrough and it must be very high.

Only Nintendo could have a shortage with this game.

I /think/ they said they were going to print it until the end of the holidays so new shipments should eventually come in. And since it's a collector's item I'd say the risk from the used market is lower than usual.

 

[sphinx]

So I guess with Vanquish totally bombing worldwide, Mikami is going back into retirement? Looks like those people saying Vanquish would be the next Godhand were more correct than they expected! :lol

wait, are there Vanquish sales figures for the first months in EU and NA already? I totally missed them. Did it make it to the NPD top 10?

 

[[Nintex]]

Wii: 11.971

I wonder when it'll drop below 10.000 and where the bottom is. Nintendo hasn't said or done anything about the Wii situation since E3 2010. My guess is they've already moved on to 3DS and that's where Zelda and Pikmin 3 will end up unless they say fuck it, cut their losses and ship Zelda early 2011 to try and bank in the US and Europe. Also, I feel sad for Sakaguchi he just can't seem to join the 'winning' team for once, next up he'll go make a PSP game that bombs terribly.

 

[duckroll]

wait, are there Vanquish sales figures for the first months in EU and NA already? I totally missed them. Did it make it to the NPD top 10?

There are no numbers yet, but let's put it this way: on launch week in the UK, Vanquish was #12. :lol

 

[apana]

Damn what is up with Kirby, it seems like its doing really bad? The Wii is the worst of all. I guess it really is dying off.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I really thought Vanquish would have done better .
It's only hope is if it does better in other parts of EU and USA then maybe they can get to a million.
It's not even going to get 100 000 in Japan like i thought .

 

[test_account]

Does it mean that Move bombaed in Japan? The sales bump is negative after all.

I guess it depends on how you see it. PS Move didnt seem to have much affect on the PS3 console sales indeed (at least in the the first week), so that way maybe it bombed. But if Move itself bombed, i think it is too early to say since it is an accessory. It might sell slow, but steady over a longer period of time and end up selling good overall when time has gone by. I guess it depends much on how good software support it gets.

Has any official Move sales expectations been made by Sony by the way?

 

[TheFLYINGManga_Ka]

NoA still hasn't said any word on the Super Mario All-Stars Collection.

I think it's going to be just the red Wii/DSXL. I just have this bad feeling that NoA isn't going to bring the All-Star Collection over, for whatever bizarre reason.

 

[tetrisgrammaton]

if SQ has any kind of sense (I'm not convinced they do), they'll move DQX to 3DS. it will have the install base of Wii in a year or two

 

[Stumpokapow]

I guess it depends on how you see it. PS Move didnt seem to have much affect on the PS3 console sales indeed (at least in the the first week), so that way maybe it bombed. But if Move itself bombed, i think it is too early to say since it is an accessory. It might sell slow, but steady over a longer period of time and end up selling good overall when time has gone by. I guess it depends much on how good software support it gets.

Well we don't get accessory numbers but we do get software numbers and I think it's fair to say that, both on a weekly basis and longterm, if Move software sells well, Move is doing well. If Move software sells poorly, Move is doing poorly.

 

[Olaeh]

I wonder when it'll drop below 10.000 and where the bottom is. Nintendo hasn't said or done anything about the Wii situation since E3 2010. My guess is they've already moved on to 3DS and that's where Zelda and Pikmin 3 will end up unless they say fuck it, cut their losses and ship Zelda early 2011 to try and bank in the US and Europe. Also, I feel sad for Sakaguchi he just can't seem to join the 'winning' team for once, next up he'll go make a PSP game that bombs terribly.

You don't mean mean Skyward Sword, do you? that would be pretty bold. Pikmin 3 I don't doubt (In fact it seems likely), but I'd expect they'd still release SS on Wii and just port it over to 3DS if anything. They did still give GCN owners TP, so hopefully they'll still throw us a bone. I guess it's too late in the gen to try and do much about the Wii situation. 3DS and Wii2 are their focus.

It's a shame. Wii has some awesome games and awesome stuff around the corner. I guess Japan really did just give up on it It's all up to the red Wii and Donkey Kong now!

 

[test_account]

Well we don't get accessory numbers but we do get software numbers and I think it's fair to say that, both on a weekly basis and longterm, if Move software sells well, Move is doing well. If Move software sells poorly, Move is doing poorly.

Indeed. It might be hard to say with some games that have optional Move support (like Killzone 3 for example, if it sells 50k, did any of those 50k people buy Move as well because of this game?). But ye, overall Move software sales will at least give some indication if Move is selling good or bad as you say, that is true

 

[faridmon]

To quantify how big of a bomb Vanquish is. I should point out that Bayonetta on Xbox360, sold more in the first week in Japan, than Vanquish did combined. :lol

Yeah, but isn't more than a normal shooter would sell? I mean Bayonetta was closer to a japanese game than Vanquish is. It is a shooter and those never sell a lot over there. However, it would be very sad if its bombed in the west as well.

 

[dolemite]

...

Has any official Move sales expectations been made by Sony by the way?

I think it's 4-5 million units before the end of the fiscal year.

 

[Chris1964]

[WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo) - 250.585 / 1.002.048
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 934.739 / 4.001.347
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 339.901 / 855.836
[WII] Super Mario Collection: Special Pack (Nintendo) - 307.755 / 307.755

[PS3] Naruto: Narutimate Storm (Bandai Namco) - 44.065 / 81.305
[PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 (Bandai Namco) - 63.675 / 63.675

[PS3] Bayonetta (Sega) - 135.242 / 199.902
[360] Bayonetta (Sega) - 64.325 / 88.686
[PS3] Vanquish (Sega) - 48.318 / 48.318
[360] Vanquish (Sega) - 11.204 / 11.204

Yeah, but isn't more than a normal shooter would sell? I mean Bayonetta was closer to a japanese game than Vanquish is. It is a shooter and those never sell a lot over there. However, it would be very sad if its bombed in the west as well.

If?

 

[duckroll]

Yeah, but isn't more than a normal shooter would sell? I mean Bayonetta was closer to a japanese game than Vanquish is. It is a shooter and those never sell a lot over there. However, it would be very sad if its bombed in the west as well.

What's a normal shooter? Modern Warfare 2 in Japan opened with 3x the sales of Vanquish.

 

[Chris1964]

Next week releases - the calm after the bombs... err the storm

03/11/10 [NDS] Radiant Historia (Atlus Co.)
04/11/10 [NDS] Craft Mama (Square Enix)
04/11/10 [NDS] Do-Konjou Shougakussei: Bon Bita - Hadaka no Choujou Ketsusen!! Bita vs. Dokuro Dei! (Bandai Namco)

03/11/10 [PSP] ToraDora Portable! [PSP the Best] (Bandai Namco)

04/11/10 [PS3] Fallout: New Vegas (Bethesda Softworks)

04/11/10 [360] Fallout: New Vegas (Bethesda Softworks)

 

[charlequin]

I guess my qustion is how much Iwata can/want affect the DQX release?

Not even a little bit.

Edit - This would be a benefit to both Nintendo and SE. It would sell more copies

It really wouldn't.

 

[[Nintex]]

You don't mean mean Skyward Sword, do you? that would be pretty bold. Pikmin 3 I don't doubt (In fact it seems likely), but I'd expect they'd still release SS on Wii and just port it over to 3DS if anything. They did still give GCN owners TP, so hopefully they'll still throw us a bone. I guess it's too late in the gen to try and do much about the Wii situation. 3DS and Wii2 are their focus.

It's a shame. Wii has some awesome games and awesome stuff around the corner. I guess Japan really did just give up on it It's all up to the red Wii and Donkey Kong now!

Yes, I mean skyward sword, I'm not sure but there's little to no hype for this Zelda game and I don't think Nintendo wants it to bomb after 4+ years in development.

 

[Chris1964]

Yes, I mean skyward sword, I'm not sure but there's little to no hype for this Zelda game and I don't think Nintendo wants it to bomb after 4+ years in development.

You are taking the crown from farnham with this prediction.

 

[StealthGoblin]

Move games sales and a lack of HW spike aren't good news for Sony.