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Media Create Sales: Week 12, 2011 (Mar 21 - Mar 27)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
vicissitudes
Banned
Jokeropia said:
Thank goodness they didn't then. *popcorn.gif*
I think a LOT of people aren't looking at the circumstances
3DS
- Has a low number of games
- Has an even lower number of high quality games
- Is much more expensive
- May be supply constrained
- Is competing against two MUCH more established platforms i.e. DS and PSP
The DS did not have any of the competition and was a completely new concept, i.e. two screen and touch screen. The 3DS is simply taking that to a higher level, and won't have as much of a "wow" level of impact on the market.
If you guys were really expecting it to rocket past all the competition just because it's "new" you were only setting yourself up for disappointment. It's doing well considering. Now if it's still performing at these levels by this time next year then yes Nintendo has a problem
3DS
- Has a low number of games
- Has an even lower number of high quality games
- Is much more expensive
- May be supply constrained
- Is competing against two MUCH more established platforms i.e. DS and PSP
The DS did not have any of the competition and was a completely new concept, i.e. two screen and touch screen. The 3DS is simply taking that to a higher level, and won't have as much of a "wow" level of impact on the market.
If you guys were really expecting it to rocket past all the competition just because it's "new" you were only setting yourself up for disappointment. It's doing well considering. Now if it's still performing at these levels by this time next year then yes Nintendo has a problem
FINALFANTASYDOG
Member
Brazil said:
It really doesn't help that their advertising catch phrase in japan is basically DS in 3D!
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
They cited additional Disgaea 4 shipments so while this is a way too simple approach if we look at:Chris1964 said:
Estimated sales jump to 2.1b yen from 1.9b yen.
Say those extra 200m yen at 5000Y a piece (random estimate) it'd be 40k extra copies they weren't expecting to ship.
Operating profit up to 278m from 143m, it'd be 135m yen or ~3375Y profit on each copy (if it was 40k).
I don't doubt they shipped more than they thought but heavily doubt all money is coming from that, so we're probably talking they expected to ship 100k and since its about that already they shipped an additional 20k or so. Kinda funny that little can affect them so much.
I know it will sound like I am apologist but I think that nintendo doesn´t care much about this first phase of the 3DS in the market.
Launching hardware in March with no game in a established million selling series* and with such an unfriendly price, is something nintendo DECIDED, they knew that it would have consequences and common sense tells me that nintendo knew this would be the outcome, give or take. I think they aimed for (or considered and accepted taking the risk of getting) a lukewarm launch because they knew releasing a next gen DS in november with a killer-app would have resulted in an absolute impossibility to keep up with demand, resulting in loss of sales. They are now going for the early adopter nintendo hardcore gamer and they will build hype going towards november, which is anyway when they are going to sell the most, with any early adopter already with the console in the hands.
if this turns to be the truth, we will probably learn that the Mario 3D tanooki thing will be released in Fall/winter 2011 with possibly Pokemon Gray coming at that same timeframe, after a E3 announcement. At that point, nintendo will very like get on track to keep and secure its handheld domination, unless NGP somehow gets an exclusive, relevant monster hunter portable game on launch.
does this make sense?
(*I mean games like mario and pokemon that keep releasing sequels that sell in the millions, not nintendogs, a series that shows has no life in itself, it was obviously some casual boom back when it launched)
Launching hardware in March with no game in a established million selling series* and with such an unfriendly price, is something nintendo DECIDED, they knew that it would have consequences and common sense tells me that nintendo knew this would be the outcome, give or take. I think they aimed for (or considered and accepted taking the risk of getting) a lukewarm launch because they knew releasing a next gen DS in november with a killer-app would have resulted in an absolute impossibility to keep up with demand, resulting in loss of sales. They are now going for the early adopter nintendo hardcore gamer and they will build hype going towards november, which is anyway when they are going to sell the most, with any early adopter already with the console in the hands.
if this turns to be the truth, we will probably learn that the Mario 3D tanooki thing will be released in Fall/winter 2011 with possibly Pokemon Gray coming at that same timeframe, after a E3 announcement. At that point, nintendo will very like get on track to keep and secure its handheld domination, unless NGP somehow gets an exclusive, relevant monster hunter portable game on launch.
does this make sense?
(*I mean games like mario and pokemon that keep releasing sequels that sell in the millions, not nintendogs, a series that shows has no life in itself, it was obviously some casual boom back when it launched)
rosjos44 said:
Yes, and considering the audiences it probably had much more of an effect on Nintendo. Nintendo relies on women, kids, old people. Now granted this is launch time so the ratio of core traditional male gamers will be high, but those other groups don't go all the way down to zero. Some of them do show up for launch, but they can't show up for the 3DS launch because they are too stressed out by the tsunami.
Ratrat said:
That does not mean every were is supply constrained. 20k to increase to 50 + k in a week? they have supply but I agree they are not pumping as many PSPs out of the factories like they used to.
1.5 million or so available during launch is impressive and I did not expect them all to sell out considering what happened over their and the cost of the system.
Why did everybody jump to conclusions so fast about the 3DS failing?
I'm pretty sure that Japan in its current state is not going to be that interested in a new system that has few games and a comparatively high price point. Its clear that the price of the system is directed for enthusiast and hardcore technophiles, rather than the mainstream and casual audiences.
Though the launch wasn't the best, the 3DS does have a staggered release schedule and there are many titles that should be available this year alone from third parties and Nintendo themselves. This is unique for a system, since other than launch periods or Holidays, most new systems have anemic first years. This won't be the case with the 3DS.
More importantly is where the 3DS will stabilize, and how audiences react to Pilotwings, Tales of the Abyss, and Zelda over the next few weeks.
I'm pretty sure that Japan in its current state is not going to be that interested in a new system that has few games and a comparatively high price point. Its clear that the price of the system is directed for enthusiast and hardcore technophiles, rather than the mainstream and casual audiences.
Though the launch wasn't the best, the 3DS does have a staggered release schedule and there are many titles that should be available this year alone from third parties and Nintendo themselves. This is unique for a system, since other than launch periods or Holidays, most new systems have anemic first years. This won't be the case with the 3DS.
More importantly is where the 3DS will stabilize, and how audiences react to Pilotwings, Tales of the Abyss, and Zelda over the next few weeks.
BowieZ said:
DK Wii ? All the games listed have been really successful. Not enough to fuel the 1M+ list wars but still Kingdom Hearts level of decency. I guess Nintendo can live with that. I don't mind DK staying behind the Galaxy twins but reaching 1M would be a source of immense satisfaction and a clear signal that the DK adventure genre is far from dead in Japan.
BishopLamont
Banned
It'll still pass them either way. Be prepared.AniHawk said:
Alot of people are underestimating Nintendogs' performance, the original games never sold truckloads, it sold little amounts for a very long time, I don't doubt this will perform similarly, even if it doesnt sell as much as the original did in the long run.
They're not. It's just that the console is still expensive and there's no must-have game yet, right now the console is selling on the hardware potential, streetpass, 3d etc etc. Any games getting picked up in this launch period is just for the hardware, we're still waiting for games that will make people want a 3DS.iidesuyo said:
Japanese market value (Famitsu / hardware + new software)
1987 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 300.570 / 300.570
1988 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 321.410 / 621.980
1989 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 358.990 / 980.970
1990 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 362.880 / 1.343.850
1991 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 392.370 / 1.736.220
1992 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 429.320 / 2.165.540
1993 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 432.780 / 2.598.320
1994 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 455.120 / 3.053.440
1995 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 494.550 / 3.547.990
1996 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 511.330 / 4.059.320
1997 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 534.590 / 4.593.910
1998 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 515.770 / 5.109.680
1999 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 479.940 / 5.589.620
2000 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 512.410 / 6.102.030
2001 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 486.250 / 6.588.280
2002 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 472.490 / 7.060.770
2003 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 432.870 / 7.493.640
2004 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 427.620 / 7.921.260
2005 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 496.500 / 8.417.760
2006 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 625.790 / 9.043.550
2007 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 687.950 / 9.731.500
2008 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 582.610 / 10.314.110
2009 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 542.640 / 10.856.750
2010 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 493.660 / 11.350.410
Unfortunately we miss Famicom's first strong years.
1987 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 300.570 / 300.570
1988 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 321.410 / 621.980
1989 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 358.990 / 980.970
1990 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 362.880 / 1.343.850
1991 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 392.370 / 1.736.220
1992 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 429.320 / 2.165.540
1993 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 432.780 / 2.598.320
1994 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 455.120 / 3.053.440
1995 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 494.550 / 3.547.990
1996 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 511.330 / 4.059.320
1997 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 534.590 / 4.593.910
1998 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 515.770 / 5.109.680
1999 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 479.940 / 5.589.620
2000 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 512.410 / 6.102.030
2001 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 486.250 / 6.588.280
2002 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 472.490 / 7.060.770
2003 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 432.870 / 7.493.640
2004 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 427.620 / 7.921.260
2005 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 496.500 / 8.417.760
2006 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 625.790 / 9.043.550
2007 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 687.950 / 9.731.500
2008 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 582.610 / 10.314.110
2009 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 542.640 / 10.856.750
2010 Total Value (Millions Yen) - 493.660 / 11.350.410
Unfortunately we miss Famicom's first strong years.
Cygnus X-1
Member
Chris1964 said:
Do we have some numbers regarding the initial shipment?
demonturkey
Member
Anyone here able to clarify on this?
A few websites are claiming it's a rumour that some Monster Hunter game is going to be revealed for the 3DS at Capcom Captivate.
No idea if that is what it actually says or if this website is trustworthy/a load of balls.
(Thought there would be more people savy with translations here than in any number of the plethora 3DS threads.)
A few websites are claiming it's a rumour that some Monster Hunter game is going to be revealed for the 3DS at Capcom Captivate.
No idea if that is what it actually says or if this website is trustworthy/a load of balls.
(Thought there would be more people savy with translations here than in any number of the plethora 3DS threads.)
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
thestopsign
Member
I'm expecting the 3DS to mimic the DS's first year sales pretty closely. The DS hovered around 25-30k for most of the year, with bumps at appropriate moments for software or other factors. Depending on when the NGP comes out, it should have solid 2m+ lead hardware wise going into the holidays. Not as great as I originally thought the lead would be, but it should be a nice buffer for Nintendo, especially right as the stronger titles are coming out.
BlackNMild2k1
Member
I don't know if this was mentioned, but the hardware numbers on the Medai Create site are different from whats in the OP
M-Create
3DS 50,710
PSP 50,479
NeoGaf
PSP 51.095
3DS 50.710
http://m-create.com/ranking/
M-Create
3DS 50,710
PSP 50,479
NeoGaf
PSP 51.095
3DS 50.710
http://m-create.com/ranking/
BlackNMild2k1
Member
Takao said:PSP Go is a PSP revision, and not a new platform. If you read the entirety of the OP you'd realize that in the totals they're combined.
Ah, that makes sense, forgot about combining in the PSPgo.
Outside of the 3D screen, the 3DS just 'repackages' everything including the 'innovations' that Nintendo has made in the last couple of years. There's more or less nothing new:Bizzyb said:
- Pilotwings - recycled from Wii Sports Resort
- Mii's - already introduced with the Wii
- AR Games - somewhat new but they messed around with stuff like WarioWare before and there's plenty of this stuff available elsewhere
- E-shop/browser etc. - not available at launch
- Nintendogs + Cats - from what I've seen not quite as impressive or 'ground breaking' as the first Nintendogs game, people even call it 'more of the same' and there's plenty of other pet sims out there
This leads to one conclusion, Hideki Konno is super fucked because multiple games will bomb or underperform on his watch while the 3DS struggles to get out of the door.
Lord_Byron28
Member
Using this logic one could argue that the outside the touch screen the DS just repackages everything.[Nintex] said:
-Dual screen was used for the G&W
-GCN could already do online
-Super Mario 64 DS is just a recycled Super Mario 64.
Can we really blame Konno on Pilot Wings and Nintendogs? That seems more of a Nintendo wide decision than Konno's. I also have to completely disagree with the AR and Wario Ware being the same. The e-shop/online/web browser took a little while on Wii/DS as well. I believe it took over a year(maybe it was two) for WiiWare to arrive on the system and I don't think any titles really took advantage of their Online services until 1/2 year-1 year after launch. So I think again it's less Konno's fault and more Nintendo's because Nintendo as a company was already going to continue with digital distribution regardless of who the lead designer was.
The only faults he should be held accountable for are the battery life and high price, imo. IMO, he capitalized on a lot of growing trends in the market and overall designed a pretty good system. He capitalized on 3D while taking out the most annoying factor of it. He capitalized on Street/spot pass which allows for greater emphasis on multiplayer, interaction amongst users and also helps fight against piracy/used games. As well as making a full generational leap with better graphics, controls(analogue and gyro), and making it more user friendly. I also don't believe he is super fucked either way because Iwata seems a lot more trial and error compared to Yamauchi. If this fails he may not be lead designer again but I'm sure he will still play a heavy role in designing upcoming hardware.
Not too mention the system isn't doing that badly. I expected the succesor to the DS to perform better and hit the ground running so to speak. However, considering price, the tsunami that just hit and launching in a non-holiday season it's performing very well. I'd say we could make an accurate judgement of the whole situation after the holidays/a year has gone by.
I think DKCR 3DS is very probably and makes a lot of sense as well. I'd be slightly surprised if Retro wasn't developing it. However, I'd say there's about a 1% chance if it's made it will be a port of the Wii game. Unless you're one of those people that think NSMB=NSMB Wii.
That's why it had such a bumpy start.Lord_Byron28 said:
There's plenty of AR stuff out there so it isn't exactly new, that's what I was saying. And yes we can blame Konno since Nintendo put him forward as the 'face' of the 3DS, given all the interviews it's pretty clear that he was in charge of the Nintendo 3DS line-up.
Price is all Iwata or Nintendo sales department or both... also, when did we last hear from Sakamoto after Other M bombed? Not a single peep about the game, franchise or its creator since.(well, outside of that Team Ninja guy adding a Metroid stage to DOA)
Nintendo's sole reason for not launching the 3DS in 2010 was because they were convinced it would sell better in 2011 because they had more supply available. According to Iwata himself they're holding back games that are 'ready' to give other titles some space. A complete failure in judgment. Also, you can't keep blaming the tsunami, it certainly had 'some' effect on sales in that region but sales of other systems hardly changed.
I'm not sure if Retro would want to develop more DKC games. I believe Nintendo will have another Retro Studios 'incident' if they keep letting them pump out sequels. It would be best if they made something new or rebooted something else next.