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[gkryhewy]

Media Create president early hardware forecast:

3DS: 16-23 million
3DS + NGP: 42 million

http://gadget.itmedia.co.jp/gg/articles/1104/04/news114.html

That's pretty remarkable, unless he expects NGP pricing to be much more competitive than most observers are. It would seem at first glance that Nintendo has much more flexibility in hardware pricing than Sony will, in addition to a ~2M(?) unit head start in Japan. I don't see it. Will be interesting.

 

[Effect]

If the problem is people not knowing that you don't have to play with the 3D and it isn't simply another version of the DS then it should be easy to correct that. Just have a commercial showing games on a DS and then showing games on a 3DS. The footage should speak for itself. Put a focus on the slider and that buyers have a choice. I would think that should take care of any misinformation.

 

[Ratrat]

That's pretty remarkable, unless he expects NGP pricing to be much more competitive than most observers are. It would seem at first glance that Nintendo has much more flexibility in hardware pricing than Sony will, in addition to a ~2M(?) unit head start in Japan. I don't see it. Will be interesting.

he does kind of backpedal saying both will sell at least 16-17 million, software determining the rest.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

when will the charts return?

 

[Road]

when will the charts return?

Where have they gone?

 

[farnham]

When is golden week again ?

 

[Castor Krieg]

If the problem is people not knowing that you don't have to play with the 3D

What's the point of buying 3DS then? It's more expensive, plus DS games are stretched. If you plan on buying and playing DS games, buying 3DS is exactly something you would NOT do.

 

[gkryhewy]

What's the point of buying 3DS then? It's more expensive, plus DS games are stretched. If you plan on buying and playing DS games, buying 3DS is exactly something you would NOT do.

?? You can play 3DS software in 2D.

 

[Brazil]

What's the point of buying 3DS then? It's more expensive, plus DS games are stretched. If you plan on buying and playing DS games, buying 3DS is exactly something you would NOT do.

I guess you're part of the problem he mentioned.

 

[Effect]

What's the point of buying 3DS then? It's more expensive, plus DS games are stretched. If you plan on buying and playing DS games, buying 3DS is exactly something you would NOT do.

There is still the graphical and power upgrade with the 3DS. Turning the slider down or off doesn't change that. Resident Evil: The Mercenaries will still look great with the slider on or off. Street Fighter IV looks great with it on or off. The 3DS is fully worthwhile even if you aren't going to use the 3D or simply can't see it which is the case with some people. The 3DS = Wii to 360 due to smaller resolution, shaders, etc. The DS(Original/Lite/I/XL) = a N64/PS1. That's the difference that should be made clear.

This really should be clear to anyone that has seen any footage of a 3DS game and has played a DS game in the past though.

 

[Saint Gregory]

If the problem is people not knowing that you don't have to play with the 3D and it isn't simply another version of the DS then it should be easy to correct that. Just have a commercial showing games on a DS and then showing games on a 3DS. The footage should speak for itself. Put a focus on the slider and that buyers have a choice. I would think that should take care of any misinformation.

I think (and I'm not talking specifically about the Japanese market here) that the real problem is that the average person just doesn't care that much about graphical power, and that applies to both handhelds and home consoles. If you factor that in then even though the 3DS is clearly more capable that a DS at the end of the day to the average consumer it really is just a DS with 3D. If 3D isn't a big deal to you then why would you be interested right now with the game selection that's available and two competitors that are nearly half the price?

Once the 3DS starts getting compelling software that isn't available on either the DS or PSP then we'll see things pick up but until then I think that there's rough times ahead. The two odd things to me about this situation are that you would think Nintendo more than any other gaming company at this point would understand that building an expensive console based mostly around a graphical upgrade could prove to be a poor decision and the other is that somehow people think there's a chance that the NGP will fare better when there will be three (possibly) cheaper options on the market.

Really my biggest fear out of all this is that if the 3DS fails to do well in the coming months Nintendo will choose to go low tech again with the Wii successor.

 

[hamchan]

The point to get worried is when Mario Kart comes out. If that doesn't stimulate sales for a while then nothing ever will.

 

[farnham]

What's the point of buying 3DS then? It's more expensive, plus DS games are stretched. If you plan on buying and playing DS games, buying 3DS is exactly something you would NOT do.

right now there is little merrit buying a 3ds

but then again that was the same with ds or gba right after launch (id say gba was a tad better with castlevania circle of the moon in the mix)

on a personal level i believe buying a 3ds will pay off only after some of the big action games or RPGs like pokemon, zelda, mario etc ship

btw. on some games (early ds games) it is actually pretty great to have the 3ds. mario 64 or metroid prime hunters for example play a lot better with the 3ds circle pad

 

[farnham]

The point to get worried is when Mario Kart comes out. If that doesn't stimulate sales for a while then nothing ever will.

first party wise NSMB (ead tokyo mario? not so much unless its 2d ), Mario Kart, Pokemon, Animal Crossing and NSMB
in japan also tomodachi collection 3ds might do big

nintendogs kinda lost its selling power. even in europe. its kinda disastrous (maybe things will get better once it hits a mass market price who knows)

 

[Barack Lesnar]

There is still the graphical and power upgrade with the 3DS. Turning the slider down or off doesn't change that. Resident Evil: The Mercenaries will still look great with the slider on or off. Street Fighter IV looks great with it on or off. The 3DS is fully worthwhile even if you aren't going to use the 3D or simply can't see it which is the case with some people. The 3DS = Wii to 360 due to smaller resolution, shaders, etc. The DS(Original/Lite/I/XL) = a N64/PS1. That's the difference that should be made clear.

This really should be clear to anyone that has seen any footage of a 3DS game and has played a DS game in the past though.

It's not even close to a 360 or in the middle between a Wii and a 360. Without the 3D it's a slightly upgraded DS with an improved friend code system. The 3D is the identity of the system. It's the selling point.

 

[AranhaHunter]

It's not even close to a 360 or in the middle between a Wii and a 360. Without the 3D it's a slightly upgraded DS with an improved friend code system. The 3D is the identity of the system. It's the selling point.

I know this is way OT, but I keep hearing about the 3DS power and some people say it's between Wii and 360 and others say it's between PS2 and XBox. Would be nice to have a clear answer, but based on what I've seen I say it's close to the latter which would still make it the most powerful gaming handheld to date.

 

[gkryhewy]

it's a slightly upgraded DS

Haha.

I know this is way OT, but I keep hearing about the 3DS power and some people say it's between Wii and 360 and others say it's between PS2 and XBox. Would be nice to have a clear answer, but based on what I've seen I say it's close to the latter which would still make it the most powerful gaming handheld to date.

It's like an xbox with modern shaders (so, somewhere between a Wii [Xbox] and a 360).

 

[evilromero]

I'm curious. Has Nintendo released any official sales data yet? I'm asking because typically we hear something at most a week out. It's possible I've just missed it though.

 

[charlequin]

Once the 3DS starts getting compelling software that isn't available on either the DS or PSP then we'll see things pick up but until then I think that there's rough times ahead.

I'm not sure why anyone is talking like there was ever anything more to the question than this. 100% of all systems sell on the basis of whether their buy-in price is worth it to customers for the software they offer. If a system has a high price, it'll sell worse than a reasonably priced version. If a system has a poor software lineup, it'll sell worse than a system with killer apps. Hardware features are never relevant except inasmuch as they affect the quality of the software or they drive up the price.

Without the 3D it's a slightly upgraded DS with an improved friend code system.

This is basically absurd. You can make similar (and equally absurd) claims about almost every system upgrade in history: the PS2 is just a slightly upgraded PSX with a hard drive bay, etc. The selling point of the 3DS is that it plays software that the DS cannot. If that software is underwhelming and doesn't include any must-have titles (as is currently the case) it's not going to do well; if and when that software expands to have such titles it will perform better.

3DS looks a bit unusual compared to Nintendo's last launch because the Wii had an A-list killer app on day one, but that's actually pretty weird; most systems have a shitty launch lineup. Inasmuch as there's a problem, it really comes down to an excessive price, which turns some of the customers who would otherwise just buy one speculatively based on hypothetical good software to come into fence-sitters.

I know this is way OT, but I keep hearing about the 3DS power and some people say it's between Wii and 360 and others say it's between PS2 and XBox.

It's broadly comparable in power to the Wii; it has less raw polygon-pushing ability but more RAM, more significant shading capabilities, and a few other perks.

 

[AranhaHunter]

It's like an xbox with modern shaders (so, somewhere between a Wii [Xbox] and a 360).

Like I said, hearing different things, what are you basing this on? Someone else on this forum that is credible said that the XBox CPU (or GPU, don't remember) run circles around the 3DS one. I guess I'll have to wait and see, but if what you're saying is true then I should expect better looking games than what was on XBox, which I haven't seen yet. It's still early though.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

This is basically absurd. You can make similar (and equally absurd) claims about almost every system upgrade in history: the PS2 is just a slightly upgraded PSX with a hard drive bay, etc. The selling point of the 3DS is that it plays software that the DS cannot. If that software is underwhelming and doesn't include any must-have titles (as is currently the case) it's not going to do well; if and when that software expands to have such titles it will perform better.

3DS looks a bit unusual compared to Nintendo's last launch because the Wii had an A-list killer app on day one, but that's actually pretty weird; most systems have a shitty launch lineup. Inasmuch as there's a problem, it really comes down to an excessive price, which turns some of the customers who would otherwise just buy one speculatively based on hypothetical good software to come into fence-sitters.

PS2 was a huge leap over PS1 in terms of power, and also had DVD. Yes, it was just an "upgrade" but you have to take into account how significant that upgrade was, otherwise you're simply using semantics to argue your point.

The improved friend code system is nice. The gyro and AR could add some neat gameplay elements. But in terms of power and innovation (with the 3D turned off, which is what we're discussing), I see it as a slightly more powerful version of the DS and I think a lot of casual observers who are considering a purchase would agree. This isn't an inaccurate stigma attached to the system; I believe it has some merit.

EDIT- See Gameboy -> DS. You go from a single screen to a dual screen. You go from pushing buttons to buttons + a stylus. Now that's a huge leap and a strong enough differentiation to entice consumers.

 

[gkryhewy]

Like I said, hearing different things, what are you basing this on? Someone else on this forum that is credible said that the XBox CPU (or GPU, don't remember) run circles around the 3DS one. I guess I'll have to wait and see, but if what you're saying is true then I should expect better looking games than what was on XBox, which I haven't seen yet. It's still early though.

The trick is that (as far as I know) none of the teardowns have identified the 3DS' specific CPU or GPU, making very precise comparisons difficult. This is why you'll see things that are all over the place.

Expect something like an Xbox or Wii (see charlequin's post), and you're probably pretty close to the mark.

slightly more powerful version of the DS

Haha.

 

[Spiegel]

PS2 was a huge leap over PS1 in terms of power, and also had DVD. Yes, it was just an "upgrade" but you have to take into account how significant that upgrade was, otherwise you're simply using semantics to argue your point.

The improved friend code system is nice. The gyro and AR could add some neat gameplay elements. But in terms of power and innovation (with the 3D turned off, which is what we're discussing), I see it as a slightly more powerful version of the DS and I think a lot of casual observers who are considering a purchase would agree. This isn't an inaccurate stigma attached to the system; I believe it has some merit.

3DS is not a sightly more powerful version of the DS. It is, at least, one generation more powerful version of the DS.

 

[cw_sasuke]

PS2 was a huge leap over PS1 in terms of power, and also had DVD. Yes, it was just an "upgrade" but you have to take into account how significant that upgrade was, otherwise you're simply using semantics to argue your point.

And from Mario 64 DS to Resident Evil Revelations isnt a huge leap ?

 

[farnham]

PS2 was a huge leap over PS1 in terms of power, and also had DVD. Yes, it was just an "upgrade" but you have to take into account how significant that upgrade was, otherwise you're simply using semantics to argue your point.

The improved friend code system is nice. The gyro and AR could add some neat gameplay elements. But in terms of power and innovation (with the 3D turned off, which is what we're discussing), I see it as a slightly more powerful version of the DS and I think a lot of casual observers who are considering a purchase would agree. This isn't an inaccurate stigma attached to the system; I believe it has some merit.

EDIT- See Gameboy -> DS. You go from a single screen to a dual screen. You go from pushing buttons to buttons + a stylus. Now that's a huge leap.

hmm DS is sub PSone in terms of power 3DS is about the same as PS2 in terms of power (from what ive seen at least)

 

[Pureauthor]

PS2 was a huge leap over PS1 in terms of power, and also had DVD. Yes, it was just an "upgrade" but you have to take into account how significant that upgrade was, otherwise you're simply using semantics to argue your point.

The improved friend code system is nice. The gyro and AR could add some neat gameplay elements. But in terms of power and innovation (with the 3D turned off, which is what we're discussing), I see it as a slightly more powerful version of the DS and I think a lot of casual observers who are considering a purchase would agree. This isn't an inaccurate stigma attached to the system; I believe it has some merit.

EDIT- See Gameboy -> DS. You go from a single screen to a dual screen. You go from pushing buttons to buttons + a stylus. Now that's a huge leap.

In terms of power, it's no less significant a leap from PS1 to PS2. In terms of control scheme/fiddly bits, then yes, it's a bit of a poor show aside from the addition of an analog stick, but it's not like the PS1 -> PS2 transition introduced a lot of new stuff to the dualshock either.

 

[Sadist]

And that's where you are wrong. Even with the 3D off the 3DS is quite more powerfull than it's predecessor. If people actually want to argue this, they are either blind or very, very misinformed. I actually had this discussion with someone else on another messageboard who actually said "The 3DS is only slightly more powerfull than the original: it has the exact games and the DS can probably pull this off as well."

I asked him which games these were because I would love to compare them to SSFIV, the Resident Evil games and Kid Icarus for instance. Didn't get a reply back.

 

[Effect]

It's not even close to a 360 or in the middle between a Wii and a 360. Without the 3D it's a slightly upgraded DS with an improved friend code system. The 3D is the identity of the system. It's the selling point.

This completely invalidates what you have to say regarding the system.

Resident Evil: Deadly Silence (Nintendo DS) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_HCmFl9hNc

This is Resident Evil 1 remake right?

Resident Evil: Revelations (Nintendo 3DS) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLk3rqQ95vg

Resident Evil: The Mercenaries 3D (Nintendo 3DS) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5xJ9fUbcdc

Just for the sake of showing something else not Resident Evil based.

Call of Duty: Black Ops (Nintendo DS) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iSa6lT9pzo

Conduit 2 Tech Demo (Nintendo 3DS) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=xoMU3Ktxt6Y#t=63s

Slightly upgraded...... -_-

 

[Barack Lesnar]

And from Mario 64 DS to Resident Evil Revelations isnt a huge leap ?

It's essentially a Wii, which is essentially 2001 hardware in terms of tech. There are smart phones that were released a year or two ago that are more powerful. Compare this with the NGP, which according to rumors, might be similarly priced ($250-300 without 3G) and has some dramatic changes from the PSP even ignoring the huge leap in power: Touch screen, rear touch pad, dual analog sticks, gyro...

I was expecting a Gameboy -> DS type of leap in innovation and features and I didn't get that. It remains to be seen how many games truly utilize the 3D as a core function in terms of gameplay (could be a problem since there's people who turn it off). Nintendo knocked it out of the park with the Wii in terms of innovation and differentiation... I'm just not seeing that with the 3DS. Hell, it's got the DS name in there. It's like they went backwards with everything they learned from the Wii and its branding.

EDIT- I wasn't strictly referring to the power. Looks like you're right about the leap in power from DS to 3DS so I concede that point, but I was talking about the whole package.

 

[gkryhewy]

Interesting: in poking around teardowns to see if anyone had parsed out more specific specs yet, I see that EE Times seems to think that the processor shots have confirmed dual core, which is pretty cool:

http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-...lidehow--Inside-the-Nintendo-3DS?pageNumber=8

It's essentially a Wii, which is essentially 2001 technology

What you seem to be deliberately overlooking is the fact that the DS was 1993 technology.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

What you seem to be deliberately overlooking is the fact that the DS was 1993 technology.

Way to ignore the rest of my post. I concede I was wrong about the jump in power from DS to 3DS, although I still think it should be higher specced considering the power we're seeing in the portable space today, and even a year+ ago. The power was only a part of my point.

 

[gkryhewy]

Way to ignore the rest of my post. I concede I was wrong about the jump in power from DS to 3DS, although I still think it should be higher specced considering the power we're seeing in the portable space today, and even a year+ ago. The power was only a part of my point.

You conceded after I posted. Sorry I didn't anticipate your self-correction.

 

[Rolf NB]

It's broadly comparable in power to the Wii; it has less raw polygon-pushing ability but more RAM, more significant shading capabilities, and a few other perks.

3DS performance expectations seem way overstated. The only info I can find about the CPUs is dual 266MHz ARM11s, and that's really not competitive with Wii or Xbox levels of performance. The GPU fillrate looks roughly on par with the Gamecube. If you look at it per pixel (both views on the top screen combined are still 38% less pixels than 480p), it might just about match the Wii, but any statements above that, approaching Xbox 360 etc, are wishful thinking.

The large amount of RAM is the most competitive aspect of the system IMO.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

It's cool

 

[Lord_Byron28]

hmm DS is sub PSone in terms of power 3DS is about the same as PS2 in terms of power (from what ive seen at least)

DS was slightly above N64 and 3DS is better in some areas than GCN and in some areas not as good as GCN.

 

[Rolf NB]

Interesting: in poking around teardowns to see if anyone had parsed out more specific specs yet, I see that EE Times seems to think that the processor shots have confirmed dual core, which is pretty cool:

http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-...lidehow--Inside-the-Nintendo-3DS?pageNumber=8

The DS already had two CPUs (ARM9@133MHz, ARM7@33MHz). It was an absolute given that the 3DS would have at least two CPU cores. They are necessary for backwards compatibility.

 

[AgentChris]

Capcom should have alternating Monster Hunters every year between NGP and 3DS.
MHNG - 2012
MH3D - 2013

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

What you seem to be deliberately overlooking is the fact that the DS was 1993 technology.

Just to continue this thread:
Game boy was 1976 techonology!

 

[apana]

lol at 3D not being a big leap. You may not like 3D and consumers may not respond to it, but that doesn't mean it isn't as big a leap as previous handheld consoles. Also DS to 3DS is a huge jump in terms of power. Bigger than the jump between the N64 and Gamecube. I've seen a lot of revisionist history about the DS, like it was seen as some kind of big revolution when it was released. It actually had a slow start but the library of games, cost, etc. all raised it to heaven.

 

[charlequin]

it might just about match the Wii, but any statements above that, approaching Xbox 360 etc, are wishful thinking.

I agree! I... think that's basically what I said, even!

 

[Chris1964]

When is golden week again ?

http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2282.html

When we get Media Create and Famitsu top 1000 I'll give an update of the database.

 

[donny2112]

3DSXL with full 3-D movie support (Netflix premium, special cartridges, whatever) will be my killer app. Don't see much for 3DS currently to justify Wii's launch price without must-have Wii launch games (for me, anyways) nor Wii's scarcity.

Zelda will fix everything. If not Zelda, then Mario. If not MArio then Starfux.

Paging chalkboard makers, stat!

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

I don't watch TV that often, but I noticed 3ds commercials were back yesterday, anybody have any idea when they restarted?

 

[cw_sasuke]

Am i the only one who thinks that Capcom wll release al Lost Planet Portable Version on NGP in its first year which with the right adjustment could become semi-big ? No Monster Hunter but sellin far better than LP2 on consoles.

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu Sales: Week 14. 2011 (Mar 28 - Apr 3)

01. / 00. [NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 - Professional (Square Enix) {2011.03.31}
02. / 00. [PSP] Amagami (EBKore+) (Kadokawa Shoten) {2011.03.31}
03. / 01. [PSP] Final Fantasy IV: Complete Collection (Square Enix) {2011.03.24}
04. / 00. [PSP] BlazBlue: Continuum Shift II (Arc System Works) {2011.03.31}
05. / 02. [PS3] Dynasty Warriors 7 (Koei Tecmo) {2011.03.10}
06. / 00. [PS2] Amagami (EBKore+) (Kadokawa Shoten) {2011.03.31}
07. / 00. [3DS] Pro Baseball Family Stadium 2011 (Bandai Namco) {2011.03.31}
08. / 07. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) {2010.12.01}
09. / 04. [PSP] Dissidia: 012 (Duodecim) Final Fantasy (Square Enix) {2011.03.03}
10. / 06. [3DS] Professor Layton and the Mask of Miracle (Level 5) {2011.02.26}

 

[Orgen]

Chris, what's the last LTD known for Friend Collection? (either Famitsu or Media Create)

I see the game a lot of weeks on the 30-50 positions and I was wondering if the game could cross the 4 million LTD when it's said and done.

Thanks in advance!

 

[Chris1964]

{2009.06.15 - 2011.01.30} 0010. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) {2009.06.18} - 100.371 / 3.550.150
{2009.06.15 - 2011.01.02} 0008. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) {2009.06.18} - 101.998 / 3.536.227

 

[sixteen-bit]

It's nice to see Continuum Shift II chart.

 

[Magicpaint]

How well is FFIV Complete doing versus FFIV Advance?

 

[Rolf NB]

I agree! I... think that's basically what I said, even!

We agree on two of the three major spec points. Wii and 3DS are pretty closely matched in RAM and normalized GPU performance. The slow dual CPUs in the 3DS however will hold it back from matching the best Wii/Xbox or even Gamecube games, in terms of interactivity, number of simultaneous objects/actors

Spoiler

/Pikmin

, physics and such.

The CPUs are hardly even upgraded when compared to everything else in the device: 3.2x DS levels when taken in the most optimistic way is not much of a generational leap. And that's pretending native DSi mode (with higher CPU clocks) never existed -- which it might as well, granted.