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Media Create Sales: Week 14, 2011 (Apr 4 - Apr 10)

test_account

XP-39C²
The lowest for PS3 is 1,040 (Media Create). But that was the week before the PS3 Slim though (and pricedrop i think?), so it wasnt really a normal week. The lowest normal week for the PS3 is around 4k - 5k i think.
 

Elios83

Member
Magicpaint said:
The userbase isn't going to disappear you know? It isn't active now because compelling software isn't being developed/released, but lots of people still own the system and will likely use it when DQX is released. Remember DQVI (and IIIr) and VII released very, very late into the lifespan of their respective systems and it turned out perfectly OK.

As I said it's not like I'm suggesting to switch platform and cancel the Wii version , of course it will still sell well. 4m well I don't know..... but it's clear that if they want to maximize sales for the title, making it exclusive to a dying platform is not the best thing to do.
Then what they're going to do depends on a lot of things but I think that internally there is at least some concern about the situation.
 

Alrus

Member
3DS won't pick up for a while, hopefully may/june will inject a bit of life in it until the big titles drop in. Also I'm not sure it was a great idea for level 5 to push layton as a launch title, they should have put it on the DS or waited until the install base was bigger.

Big titles do great on the Wii actually, it's been proved multiple time and there's a reason there's so much million seller on the thing. Less popular/mainstream games is where the wii shows weakness. I have no doubt DQ X will do as well as the previous console entries (Probably not as good as DQIX though).

EDF did pretty well considering it's not a budget release. Do we know the initial shipment numbers?
 

Effect

Member
Elios83 said:
As I said it's not like I'm suggesting to switch platform and cancel the Wii version , of course it will still sell well. 4m well I don't know..... but it's clear that if they want to maximize sales for the title, making it exclusive to a dying platform is not the best thing to do.
Then what they're going to do depends on a lot of things but I think that internally there is at least some concern about the situation.

You know if DQX doesn't do as well it should Square-Enix is partly to blame for that. They for the most part have largely ignored the system or put out low quality spin offs and just used the DS to drop their remakes. Those remakes and ports have made them a big presence on the DS though. Not saying they could have kept people interested in the system by themselves but they could have kept their name out there so owners would be more interested in buying their games specifically. So if DQX does poorly I don't think Nintendo can be blamed for it.
 

Bebpo

Banned
Magicpaint said:
The userbase isn't going to disappear you know? It isn't active now because compelling software isn't being developed/released, but lots of people still own the system and will likely use it when DQX is released. Remember DQVI (and IIIr) and VII released very, very late into the lifespan of their respective systems and it turned out perfectly OK.

You're right and DQX will do fine but userbases do shrink in Japan, the land of reselling. Look at the X360, there used to be a solid 100k niche userbase out there for X360 games. Then everyone bailed and sold their X360s and now there's maaaybe a 20-30k userbase max.

I'm pretty sure the Wii userbase is nowhere near the size it was at its peak and that probably has some effect on wii software in general.
 
Weird week, low sales across the boards. 3DS can't really sink lower than this week though, if it goes into the 20k's I'll be worried. Nintendogs is encouraging though; maybe more casuals are starting to pick up the 3DS based on word-of-mouth.
 

Thoraxes

Member
I think everyone is over-dramaticising the 3DS's selling potential, and a lot of people are trying to brand what kind of selling powers it has when the market is waaaaay too new for it right now.
Most systems don't sell a ton in their first year. Most systems don't launch with great games.
Once the system is out of that launch phase, we'll probably see a solid pickup of units as more games are made for the system.

Nintendo is doing fine, and I have no worries that they'll do great with the 3DS.
 

mclem

Member
Bebpo said:
You're right and DQX will do fine but userbases do shrink in Japan, the land of reselling. Look at the X360, there used to be a solid 100k niche userbase out there for X360 games. Then everyone bailed and sold their X360s and now there's maaaybe a 20-30k userbase max.

Who bought them?
 
Alrus said:
3DS won't pick up for a while, hopefully may/june will inject a bit of life in it until the big titles drop in. Also I'm not sure it was a great idea for level 5 to push layton as a launch title, they should have put it on the DS or waited until the install base was bigger.

Big titles do great on the Wii actually, it's been proved multiple time and there's a reason there's so much million seller on the thing. Less popular/mainstream games is where the wii shows weakness. I have no doubt DQ X will do as well as the previous console entries (Probably not as good as DQIX though).

EDF did pretty well considering it's not a budget release. Do we know the initial shipment numbers?

Hmm it definitely won't do as good as IX, but how well did VII or VIII do (with bargain and re-releases)? I was under the impression that they both sold extremely well. I'm guessing X will do 2-2.5 million on Wii with re-releases, which is good enough for best selling 3rd party game on a home console this generation.
 

mclem

Member
Thoraxes said:
I think everyone is over-dramaticising the 3DS's selling potential, and a lot of people are trying to brand what kind of selling powers it has when the market is waaaaay too new for it right now.
Most systems don't sell a ton in their first year. Most systems don't launch with great games.
Once the system is out of that launch phase, we'll probably see a solid pickup of units as more games are made for the system.

Nintendo is doing fine, and I have no worries that they'll do great with the 3DS.

I think it's somewhat worrying in light of the Wii having done so well right out of the gate, but I don't think it's necessary doom and gloom yet. It really does need a big mass-appeal title some time this year, though (Mario Kart?)
 

Spiegel

Member
AranhaHunter said:
Hmm it definitely won't do as good as IX, but how well did VII or VIII do (with bargain and re-releases)? I was under the impression that they both sold extremely well. I'm guessing X will do 2-2.5 million on Wii with re-releases, which is good enough for best selling 3rd party game on a home console this generation.

No, that would be a disaster

DQVII - 4M
DQVIII - 3.8M
DQIX - 4.35M
 

Effect

Member
mclem said:
Who bought them?

Stores maybe. There is also the possibility that if they got the red ring people simply didn't buy new ones. Also they could have gone in storage or be boxed away once people decided they no longer wanted to play them. Maybe they got recycled if they couldn't sell them to someone else. A number of ways the userbase can shrink. This could be applied to the Wii as well. With that, it being so small, I can easily see it simply being packed away. It's not like there is a reason to keep it out to play movies or anything.

I know personally once I stopped playing and buying PS2 game I kept mine out just for dvds. My PS3 is in the same position now. If not for that it might have been packed away along with my Xbox, Cube, and PS1 and other systems. Also possible that some 360's out there in Japan are no longer gaming machines but DVD machines
 
AranhaHunter said:
Hmm it definitely won't do as good as IX, but how well did VII or VIII do (with bargain and re-releases)? I was under the impression that they both sold extremely well. I'm guessing X will do 2-2.5 million on Wii with re-releases, which is good enough for best selling 3rd party game on a home console this generation.

If DQX only sell 2- 2.5 million that's a huge drop off , not only from IX but also XIII and XII.
They both sold over 3.5 million if i remember right .
 
Bebpo said:
Then everyone bailed and sold their X360s and now there's maaaybe a 20-30k userbase max.

kinect Sales and MHF disagree with this, if you basically give something away for free you've got 100k userbase!


AranhaHunter said:
Hmm it definitely won't do as good as IX, but how well did VII or VIII do (with bargain and re-releases)? I was under the impression that they both sold extremely well. I'm guessing X will do 2-2.5 million on Wii with re-releases, which is good enough for best selling 3rd party game on a home console this generation.

You can get an 60gb used 360 with Katamari and Ace combat for less then 10,000 yen now.
 

kswiston

Member
AranhaHunter said:
Hmm it definitely won't do as good as IX, but how well did VII or VIII do (with bargain and re-releases)? I was under the impression that they both sold extremely well. I'm guessing X will do 2-2.5 million on Wii with re-releases, which is good enough for best selling 3rd party game on a home console this generation.

DQVII broke 4M and VIII was at 3.8M or so I believe. DQVI was over 3M as well.

I doubt DQX will sell as low as 2M. Final Fantasy XIII almost sold that on 5M PS3s and Mainline Dragon Quest games have sold at least 1M units better than mainline FF games in the last 10 years.

I think disappointing sales for DQX would be 3M or less. I don't think the Wii entry will hit 4M, but there is a large enough userbase for the game to pass 3M.
 

Alrus

Member
AranhaHunter said:
Hmm it definitely won't do as good as IX, but how well did VII or VIII do (with bargain and re-releases)? I was under the impression that they both sold extremely well. I'm guessing X will do 2-2.5 million on Wii with re-releases, which is good enough for best selling 3rd party game on a home console this generation.

2.5m would be pretty awful for the series... I'm pretty sure it'll do much better than that. Square should start promoting it at one point this year though, just to remind people this game exists and where it's headed...

mclem said:
I think it's somewhat worrying in light of the Wii having done so well right out of the gate, but I don't think it's necessary doom and gloom yet. It really does need a big mass-appeal title some time this year, though (Mario Kart?)

Mario Kart, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi Collection (I'm sure it's coming). Those will boost sales by a lot. A 2D mario could help a lot too (Japan seems to like them a lot more than the 3D ones).
 
marc^o^ said:
DQX and Zelda released on a moribund platform is an anomaly, which leads me to think next Nintendo console will be backward compatible. People could buy a new console to play these in HD.
Do you think that including backwards compatibility in a home console makes sense? I mean from a busyness stand point wouldn´t make more sense to make a dual release of those 2 games.
 
I still think DQ X should be cross platform Wii-3DS. They're pretty similar hardware-wise, and both systems need software. I really see no reason not to.
 
kswiston said:
I think disappointing sales for DQX would be 3M or less. I don't think the Wii entry will hit 4M, but there is a large enough userbase for the game to pass 3M.

I have a hard time seeing the game doing over 3 million, but I've been wrong plenty of times before. Maybe if the rumor is true and the price drops ~5,000 in May and sales pick up, I will have an easier time saying 3 million for the game.

SlipperySlope said:
I still think DQ X should be cross platform Wii-3DS. They're pretty similar hardware-wise, and both systems need software. I really see no reason not to.

I don't think there's ever been a DQ game that was multiplatform at launch.
 

ollin

Member
It will be interesting what happens during the holiday season.

PSP (price cut), PS3 (20,000 Yen), and NGP VS Wii (price cut), Wii HD, and 3DS
 
farnham said:
nintendo needs to fire iwata for how he handled 3ds and 2010 and beyond wii

this is an embarassment

Nintendo's main issue is with 3rd parties. They simply can't sustain two systems at once by themselves. Nobody can. Nobody ever has.

And now you have this new predicament of having to support a new handheld, as well as prepare for the upcoming console. So that's four systems they have to keep up on. So they do what they can, and completely drop support for two of the systems (I don't think they're making any more major DS software, are they?)

Iwata's potential success will be in if, and how, he brings 3rd parties into the fold. The first example of that is the 3DS. The DS was alright with 3rd parties, but it was missing a few major Japan games (FF 13 and Monster Quest) and most Western games. We'll see what kind of support the 3DS gets, but Epic's lack of acknowledgement isn't encouraging.
 

Elios83

Member
ollin said:
It will be interesting what happens during the holiday season.

PSP (price cut), PS3 (20,000 Yen), and NGP VS Wii (price cut), Wii HD, and 3DS

Indeed it will be a really interesting situation to look at.
 

kswiston

Member
AranhaHunter said:
I have a hard time seeing the game doing over 3 million, but I've been wrong plenty of times before. Maybe if the rumor is true and the price drops ~5,000 in May and sales pick up, I will have an easier time saying 3 million for the game.

If DQX is a 2012 release, it will be launching on an installed base of 13M or so systems. Ignoring the fact that there have already been a few 3-4M selling games on the Wii, Monster Hunter 2G was able to break 3M on a similar number of systems. So install base is not an issue.

Also, A Dragon Quest title will get people to break out their Wiis, even if they have spent the last year or two collecting dust.



AranhaHunter said:
I don't think there's ever been a DQ game that was multiplatform at launch.

Not that I think it will be multi-plat, but the same could have been said for almost every AAA Japanese franchise heading into this gen.
 

wrowa

Member
SlipperySlope said:
Nintendo's main issue is with 3rd parties. They simply can't sustain two systems at once by themselves. Nobody can. Nobody ever has.
Farnham is just trolling, don't give him the attention he wants.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
3DS should "rebounce" a bit in those week leading to OoT 3D release.

12th May Steel Diver
19th May Dead or Alive Dimensions
26th May One Piece Unlimited Cruise SP
End of May eShop Launch // Systemupdate
2nd June RE Mercenaries 3D with Revelations Demo
16th Juni Zelda OoT 3D
End of June - Tales of the Abyss ( not confirmed)
14th July StarFox 64 3D

But really big sales wont happen before Animal Crossing or Mario Kart 3DS hit the market. So yeah this holiday season....
 
SlipperySlope said:
The DS was alright with 3rd parties, but it was missing a few major Japan games (FF 13 and Monster Quest) and most Western games. We'll see what kind of support the 3DS gets, but Epic's lack of acknowledgement isn't encouraging.

Your fallacy here is assuming that Western support for a handheld could ever be good enough to be critical to its overall success or failure, as long as the Western industry maintains its overall HD Uber Alles mentality. No, I don't see NGP changing this; UE3 support will obviously make it easier to port content (whether assets or entire games) from HD consoles, but that won't in itself convince Western publishers to actually pour significant resources into such titles.
 
SlipperySlope said:
Nintendo's main issue is with 3rd parties. They simply can't sustain two systems at once by themselves. Nobody can. Nobody ever has.

And now you have this new predicament of having to support a new handheld, as well as prepare for the upcoming console. So that's four systems they have to keep up on. So they do what they can, and completely drop support for two of the systems (I don't think they're making any more major DS software, are they?)

Iwata's potential success will be in if, and how, he brings 3rd parties into the fold. The first example of that is the 3DS. The DS was alright with 3rd parties, but it was missing a few major Japan games (FF 13 and Monster Quest) and most Western games. We'll see what kind of support the 3DS gets, but Epic's lack of acknowledgement isn't encouraging.
Doubt either handheld will get any meaningful support from big western 3rd parties. Ports ahoy.
 
Awesome EDF2 Portable start there...


About PS3, it had some really low numbers just before GT5 Prologue Spec III (and its bundle) hit and of course before PS3 Slim. If we took out those, the lowest any normal week was 7,438 (April 2008).

Its interesting to note though, that the PS3 Slim worst week since its launch has been 17,175.
 

Bizzyb

Banned
kswiston said:
Wii has been heading towards a 15M LTD for years now. Since at least 2009. A price cut and DQX will boost sales some, but the system is not going to have a reversal of fortunes. The market for home consoles seems to have shrunk a great deal this gen.


Release DQX on a dying system with software interest slipping as fast as hardware sales?

guinness_brilliant.jpg
 
Going by Media Create, here are PS3's sub-10K weeks before Slim. Grouped them into consecutive weeks.

Week starting
2007-05-07: 8,839
2007-05-14: 8,659
2007-05-21: 9,627
2007-05-28: 8,998
2007-06-11: 9,481
2007-06-18: 9,581

2008-04-07: 8,232
2008-04-14: 7,438
2008-04-21: 9,107

2008-05-05: 8,054
2008-05-12: 7,701
2008-05-19: 9,071
2008-05-26: 9,169

2008-07-28: 9,508
2008-08-04: 9,673

2008-08-18: 9,020
2008-08-25: 9,775
2008-09-01: 8,317
2008-09-08: 8,053
2008-09-15: 8,156
2008-09-22: 8,275
2008-09-29: 7,232
2008-10-06: 5,734
2008-10-13: 4,725
2008-10-20: 3,931 (Next week is 40K, so this was another "Wait for something" situation)

2009-07-06: 9,864
2009-07-13: 8,865
2009-07-20: 8,997
2009-07-27: 8,760
2009-08-03: 5,826
2009-08-10: 5,944
2009-08-17: 2,052
2009-08-24: 1,040
 
farnham said:
nintendo needs to fire iwata for how he handled 3ds and 2010 and beyond wii

this is an embarassment

Well its not really embarrassing if they release a new console this year since these precipitous wii sales have reached new lows, as planned. 3DS could have been delayed...
 

ULTROS!

People seem to like me because I am polite and I am rarely late. I like to eat ice cream and I really enjoy a nice pair of slacks.
gkryhewy said:
DQVII was released for PSX after the PS2 launched.

Final Fantasy IX also came out the same year DQVII came out.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
FINALFANTASYDOG said:
Chris - do you have the lowest week for software sales on record?
Maybe Create has stated that the lowest week ever they have tracked is the week {2001.10.15 - 2001.10.21} with top 100 software sales being 297.843.

I don't have Media Create data for that week but Famitsu has:

Famitsu Sales: Week 42, 2001 (Oct 15 - Oct 21)

01. / 01. [PS2] Dynasty Warriors 3 (Koei) {2001.09.20} - 39.727 / 538.620 (-32%)
02. / 03. [PS2] Time Crisis II (Namco) {2001.10.04} - 12.552 / 85.011 (-45%)
03. / 06. [PS2] Bravo Music (SCE) {2001.10.11} - 12.412 / 30.246 (-30%)
04. / 02. [GBA] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Capcom) {2001.10.12} - 10.816 / 34.726 (-55%)
05. / 05. [PS2] Formula 1 2001 (SCE) {2001.10.11} - 10.465 / 29.105 (-44%)
06. / 16. [GCN] Luigi's Mansion (Nintendo) {2001.09.14} - 8.556 / 185.683 (+41%)
07. / 09. [PS2] Hot Shots Golf 3 (SCE) {2001.07.26} - 8.422 / 728.736 (-5%)
08. / 07. [PS2] Ace Combat 04: Shattered Skies (Namco) {2001.09.13} - 8.320 / 330.955 (-30%)
09. / 00. [PS1] SuperLite 1500 Series: The Tetris (Success) {2000.07.19} - 8.178 / 188.676
10. / 04. [PS2] Touge 3 (Atlus Co.) {2001.10.11} - 8.145 / 26.983 (-57%)
11. / 12. [GBA] Wario Land 4 (Nintendo) {2001.08.21} - 7.600 / 233.511 (+1%)
12. / 00. [GBA] Puyo Pop (Sega) {2001.10.18} - 7.599 / NEW
13. / 15. [PS2] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 8 (Konami) {2001.08.30} - 6.951 / 250.725 (+13%)
14. / 14. [GBA] Mario Kart: Super Circuit (Nintendo) {2001.07.21} - 6.044 / 610.483 (-3%)
15. / 08. [PS2] Silent Hill 2 (Konami) {2001.09.27} - 5.601 / 107.028 (-43%)
16. / 18. [BWS] Digimon Tamers: Battle Spirit (Bandai) {2001.10.06} - 5.460 / 25.296 (-6%)
17. / 10. [PS2] Capcom Vs. SNK 2: Mark of the Millennium 2001 (Capcom) {2001.09.13} - 4.812 / 252.530 (-44%)
18. / 13. [PS2] All-Star Baseball 2002 (Acclaim) {2001.10.04} - 4.717 / 20.207 (-26%)
19. / 00. [PS2] Silent Scope 2: Dark Silhouette (Konami) {2001.10.18} - 4.601 / NEW
20. / 19. [GBA] Super Robot Wars A (Banpresto) {2001.09.21} - 4.586 / 224.099 (-18%)
21. / 17. [PS2] Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec (SCE) {2001.04.28} - 4.476 / 1.417.519 (-24%)
22. / 20. [PS1] Fever 5: Sankyo Official Pachinko Simulation (ICS) {2001.09.20} - 4.433 / 48.384 (-18%)
23. / 28. [NGB] Pokemon Crystal (Nintendo) {2000.12.14} - 4.028 / 1.575.031 (+10%)
24. / 00. [GBA] Hello Kitty Collection: Miracle Fashion Maker (Imagineer) {2001.10.19} - 3.955 / NEW
25. / 11. [PS2] King's Field IV (From Software) {2001.10.04} - 3.851 / 35.146 (-51%)
26. / 23. [PS2] Devil May Cry (Capcom) {2001.08.23} - 3.546 / 534.251 (-30%)
27. / 21. [PS2] Mobile Suit Gundam 0079: Zeonic Front (Bandai) {2001.09.06} - 3.430 / 226.048 (-35%)
28. / 26. [PS1] Nishijin Pachinko Tettei Kouryaku (Media Rings) {2001.10.11} - 3.193 / 7.619 (-28%)
29. / 22. [PS1] One Piece: Tobidase Kaizokudan! (Bandai) {2001.08.02} - 3.175 / 279.401 (-39%)
30. / 29. [GBA] Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Monsters 5: Expert 1 (Konami) {2001.07.05} - 3.152 / 374.704 (-11%)
 

Bizzyb

Banned
gkryhewy said:
DQVII was released for PSX after the PS2 launched.

Last time I checked PSX was still going (relatively) strong at the end of it's life.

edit: do people honestly believe Nintendo can carry Wii, alone for another 12+ months? i.e. release the next console Q4 2012? I shudder to think what Wii hardware/software sales would look like by then.
 

Effect

Member
Bizzyb said:
Last time I checked PSX was still going (relatively) strong at the end of it's life.

edit: do people honestly believe Nintendo can carry Wii, alone for another 12+ months? i.e. release the next console Q4 2012? I shudder to think what Wii hardware/software sales would look like by then.
Personally I don't think they can. Which is I don't think it's out of the question for them to reveal something at E3 and launch during the holidays while pushing both the new system (capable of playing all Wii games) and the 3DS. If what Ono of Street Fighter fame suggested/trolled that the 3DS version of Street Fighter connects to a system (hard to see it being the Wii with it's OS and hardware) is true then a dual push from Nintendo wouldn't be crazy.

Still this is all wishful speculation and hope.
 
Bizzyb said:
edit: do people honestly believe Nintendo can carry Wii, alone for another 12+ months? i.e. release the next console Q4 2012? I shudder to think what Wii hardware/software sales would look like by then.
Just because that option is tough doesn't mean the alternative is likely or feasible.
 
Father_Brain said:
Your fallacy here is assuming that Western support for a handheld could ever be good enough to be critical to its overall success or failure, as long as the Western industry maintains its overall HD Uber Alles mentality. No, I don't see NGP changing this; UE3 support will obviously make it easier to port content (whether assets or entire games) from HD consoles, but that won't in itself convince Western publishers to actually pour significant resources into such titles.

This is way OT, but I don't see western 3rd parties avoiding handhelds and mobiles like most people claim. Not counting PC exclusive developers like Blizzard, most western 3rd parties have released their major franchises on a mobile or handheld. I don't know, I see major western 3rd parties praising and releasing games on iOS all the time, so I don't think they're that indifferent to it as people like to suggest.

Bizzyb said:
Last time I checked PSX was still going (relatively) strong at the end of it's life.

edit: do people honestly believe Nintendo can carry Wii, alone for another 12+ months? i.e. release the next console Q4 2012? I shudder to think what Wii hardware/software sales would look like by then.

At the same time, has a company ever released 2 major new (not iterations) successful consoles in the same year? That's probably just as hard, if not harder, than maintaining the Wii afloat for the next 12 months. There's still 2 major 3rd party exclusives for it (DQX, IEBreak), plus possibly MH3G. That's something that I don't think people consider when they say Super Wii is releasing this year.

Effect said:
Personally I don't think they can. Which is I don't think it's out of the question for them to reveal something at E3 and launch during the holidays while pushing both the new system (capable of playing all Wii games) and the 3DS. If what Ono of Street Fighter fame suggested/trolled that the 3DS version of Street Fighter connects to a system (hard to see it being the Wii with it's OS and hardware) is true then a dual push from Nintendo wouldn't be crazy.

Still this is all wishful speculation and hope.

Ono suggested a home console connecting to a handheld version. Someone took that as 3DS connecting to Wii or its successor. It can just as easily, if not easier, be a NGP version of SSFIV that connects to the PS3 version.
 
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