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[fabricated backlash]

Mario 3D will save Vita and Wii U.

Spoiler

lol jk.

It will retroactively make the Virtual Boy a success.

 

[thehypocrite]

It will retroactively make the Virtual Boy a success.

And revive the Dreamcast as if it's 9/9/99!!!

Kidding aside the Vita has no prospects of mainstream success and Sony doesn't think that their software product pipeline and 3rd parties are conducive to it, thus the forecast they provided yesterday.

Does this mean that they'll kill the Vita? No, regardless of how boring this might be for some. Sony seems focused on PS4 and is content with letting it bleed out on the side of the road. They won't do anything aggressive for the handheld gaming devices market cause they're also causing it crumble with their Xperia products.

They've made a choice and will invest in smartphone and tablet, not on Vita. This is a luxury they can take unlike Nintendo.

 

[Father_Brain]

Just so we're on the same page, what imagine will happen with this "discontinuation"? I can only assume hardware production ceases, first party support completely ceases. Will third party otaku games and indie digital titles be rejected? Will marketing be completely gone? Will they slip Vita advertisements into PSN?

Missed this earlier, but: definitely not (see: Dreamcast), probably, and no idea, respectively.

 

[ArtHands]

Check out how many titles that Sega is planning for all platforms for the fiscal year ending next year March:
http://www.segasammy.co.jp/japanese/pdf/release/tanshin_hosoku_20130510_j_final.pdf

PS3: 7 titles
Wii U: 7 titles
3DS: 6 titles
Vita: 5 titles
360: 4 titles
PSP: 2 titles

 

[Nekki]

Kidding aside the Vita has no prospects of mainstream success and Sony doesn't think that their software product pipeline and 3rd parties are conducive to it, thus the forecast they provided yesterday.

Does this mean that they'll kill the Vita? No, regardless of how boring this might be for some. Sony seems focused on PS4 and is content with letting it bleed out on the side of the road. They won't do anything aggressive for the handheld gaming devices market cause they're also causing it crumble with their Xperia products.

They've made a choice and will invest in smartphone and tablet, not on Vita. This is a luxury they can take unlike Nintendo.

I'm sorry i thought this post was okay until --

 

[thehypocrite]

I'm sorry i thought this post was okay until --

http://www.beccahamiltonbooks.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/laughing-hysterically.gif[!/IMG][/QUOTE]

Oh you are one of those. I never said they were the only ones eroding the market, but they're in the top smartphone sellers, top5 or 6 and experiencing growth in that area.


Please don't let me stop you from using more gifs.

 

[Nekki]

Oh you are one of those. I never said they were the only ones eroding the market, but they're in the top smartphone sellers, top5 or 6 and experiencing growth in that area.


Please don't let me stop you from using more gifs.

Yes, i'm one of those. Just like you're one of those.

Nice meeting you!

 

[thehypocrite]

Yes, i'm one of those. Just like you're one of those.

Nice meeting you!

Nice and articulated post that's not a waste of readers bandwidth I feel more knowledgeable by seeing it. I think it needs a gif for round it up.

Like you had nothing to actually say to my post, but there you had to quote it and post a deriding gif without trying to see the context of what was said or ask for clarification. Now if you don't do any of that is ok, but you could also just let it be, but no you needed to spew your poison at me.

So yes, you're one of those that sofocates discussion with nonsense drivel.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

As for all the speculation about GT6 Vita, doubt it's happening. I don't think it'd be much of a system-seller in the post iOS/Android handheld market (though it'd at least do better than a Vita GoW), but Sony would probably assume otherwise, and, well... see the forecast.

GT6 PS3/PSV would be bad for Vita. GTP2 would have a bigger impact.

 

[electroplankton]

And revive the Dreamcast as if it's 9/9/99!!!

Kidding aside the Vita has no prospects of mainstream success and Sony doesn't think that their software product pipeline and 3rd parties are conducive to it, thus the forecast they provided yesterday.

Does this mean that they'll kill the Vita? No, regardless of how boring this might be for some. Sony seems focused on PS4 and is content with letting it bleed out on the side of the road. They won't do anything aggressive for the handheld gaming devices market cause they're also causing it crumble with their Xperia products.

They've made a choice and will invest in smartphone and tablet, not on Vita. This is a luxury they can take unlike Nintendo.

Given that they forecasted 16 million PSP+Vita last semester, to me it seems that Sony was somehow convinced in the success of the platform, though. The story that Sony will be happy by having a platform for only indie and niche title is sci-fi.

 

[Father_Brain]

GT6 PS3/PSV would be bad for Vita. GTP2 would have a bigger impact.

Not by much, I suspect.

 

[Chris1964]

new releases {2013.05.16}

[3DS] G1 Grand Prix (Genki the Best) <SLG> (Genki) (¥2.940)

[PSP] Summon Night 5 <SLG> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥5.980)

[PS3] MuvLuv Alternative: Total Eclipse # <ADV> (5pb.) (¥7.140)
[PS3] MuvLuv Alternative: Total Eclipse [Limited Edition] <ADV> (5pb.) (¥9.240)

[360] MuvLuv Alternative: Total Eclipse # <ADV> (5pb.) (¥7.140)
[360] MuvLuv Alternative: Total Eclipse [Limited Edition] <ADV> (5pb.) (¥9.240)

 

[thehypocrite]

Given that they forecasted 16 million PSP+Vita last semester, to me it seems that Sony was somehow convinced in the success of the platform, though. The story that Sony will be happy by having a platform for only indie and niche title is sci-fi.

Who is saying they're happy? The way I see it, they expected to get the software, they expected it to perform closer to the PSP at least in the beginning, now that they've seen the consumer apathy towards the product they aren't convinced that they can reach mainstream success, they also don't like the cost that some strategies would cost them and their certainty of success. So they'll cater to the audience that already bought the system and let it bleed while they concentrate on PS4.

The Vita is going to be treated as an isolated zombie given to novice entrepreneurs to poke around for a pulse until it inevitable collapse for lack of meaningful sustenance.

 

[electroplankton]

Who is saying they're happy? The way I see it, they expected to get the software, they expected it to perform closer to the PSP at least in the beginning, now that they've seen the consumer apathy towards the product they aren't convinced that they can reach mainstream success, they also don't like the cost that some strategies would cost them and their certainty of success. So they'll cater to the audience that already bought the system and let it bleed while they concentrate on PS4.

The Vita is going to be treated as an isolated zombie given to novice entrepreneurs to poke around for a pulse until it inevitable collapse for lack of meaningful sustenance.

To me, it seemed some people (you included, in the post I replied to) are trying to give the idea that actually Sony is happy with those results, or they just expected such low numbers, or some other planned move. It's not. Sony was expecting 16 million PSP+Vita last quarter. They ended up shipping 7 million; and Vita might well be below 5 million.

Now it's clearer, but what're you saying is that Sony will just let Vita die. It might be true.

 

[Atreides]

Who is saying they're happy? The way I see it, they expected to get the software, they expected it to perform closer to the PSP at least in the beginning, now that they've seen the consumer apathy towards the product they aren't convinced that they can reach mainstream success, they also don't like the cost that some strategies would cost them and their certainty of success. So they'll cater to the audience that already bought the system and let it bleed while they concentrate on PS4.

The Vita is going to be treated as an isolated zombie given to novice entrepreneurs to poke around for a pulse until it inevitable collapse for lack of meaningful sustenance.

About the bolded part: when they forecasted for last fiscal year, they already knew most of the titles that were going to be released, because significant new games can't be made in just a year. They got the games that they expected, and they really expected to sell 16 million handhelds with those games. They could be surprised last year that not many more games were being greenlighted, but that will affect the releases this year, not last year.

 

[Father_Brain]

About the bolded part: when they forecasted for last fiscal year, they already knew most of the titles that were going to be released, because significant new games can't be made in just a year. They got the games that they expected, and they really expected to sell 16 million handhelds with those games. They could be surprised last year that not many more games were being greenlighted, but that will affect the releases this year, not last year.

Additionally: when Sony made the 10M Vita/6M PSP forecast a year ago, they had four full months of post-launch sales in Japan and two post-launch months in NA/EU from which to deduce that it wasn't selling like gangbusters. I still have absolutely no idea what they were thinking.

Maybe there were unannounced games scheduled for FY12 that were canceled, or maybe they just really believed that COD/AC/Soul Sacrifice would move that many millions of units. We'll never know.

 

[Chris1964]

Sony isn't the only company that has big problems with forecast. At least they decided to have more realistic expectations for this FY, at Nintendo on the other hand they are still dreaming.

 

[DaBoss]

Sony isn't the only company that has big problems with forecast. At least they decided to have more realistic expectations for this FY, at Nintendo on the other hand they are still dreaming.

How many years has it been of Nintendo not being able to hit forecasts? They need to get their head on straight, it is pretty ridiculous with how many times they are wrong.

 

[kobashi100]

Additionally: when Sony made the 10M Vita/6M PSP forecast a year ago, they had four full months of post-launch sales in Japan and two post-launch months in NA/EU from which to deduce that it wasn't selling like gangbusters. I still have absolutely no idea what they were thinking.

Maybe there were unannounced games scheduled for FY12 that were canceled, or maybe they just really believed that COD/AC/Soul Sacrifice would move that many millions of units. We'll never know.

i really do believe that they thought COD was gonna be the game changer in the west.. That alongside AC and NFS were suppose to the holy trinity in the US/EU but it failed miserably.

 

[Chris1964]

How many years has it been of Nintendo not being able to hit forecasts? They need to get their head on straight, it is pretty ridiculous with how many times they are wrong.

They revise (down) every quarter and they still fail. They'll fail again, no way they hit these targets.

Maybe this Wii U failure will shake the company. Iwata will be the first to move out, for better or worse.

 

[liger05]

Sony isn't the only company that has big problems with forecast. At least they decided to have more realistic expectations for this FY, at Nintendo on the other hand they are still dreaming.

If Nintendo forecasted lower and then hit that forecast would it be better?

I dont see how sony somehow posting a dreadful forecast for the vita this FY is a positive when the number is only 5 mil just because it sounds more realistic.

 

[thehypocrite]

To me, it seemed some people (you included, in the post I replied to) are trying to give the idea that actually Sony is happy with those results, or they just expected such low numbers, or some other planned move. It's not. Sony was expecting 16 million PSP+Vita last quarter. They ended up shipping 7 million; and Vita might well be below 5 million.

Now it's clearer, but what're you saying is that Sony will just let Vita die. It might be true.

The first forecast shows they didn't expected that it was going to perform as badly as it did. So they aren't happy with it's prior or current performance.

About the bolded part: when they forecasted for last fiscal year, they already knew most of the titles that were going to be released, because significant new games can't be made in just a year. They got the games that they expected, and they really expected to sell 16 million handhelds with those games. They could be surprised last year that not many more games were being greenlighted, but that will affect the releases this year, not last year.

Games get canceled and moved all the time, they also misjudged the market badly with their initial forecast and it shows on how badly they missed targets, they also misjudged the impact of the software that did come out.

i really do believe that they thought COD was gonna be the game changer in the west.. That alongside AC and NFS were suppose to the holy trinity in the US/EU but it failed miserably.

True, this is part of what make them miss their targets.

 

[Nirolak]

If Nintendo forecasted lower and then hit that forecast would it be better?

I dont see how sony somehow posting a dreadful forecast for the vita this FY is a positive when the number is only 5 mil just because it sounds more realistic.

Well, it would at least convince investors they have a sense of the sales potential of their products.

There's a reason you see companies like Activision and EA try to post conservative forecasts in general.

Or basically it goes back to "Knowing you have a problem is the first step." If you're not convincing investors you actually understand the difficulties you're facing, especially if you're revising down expectations almost every quarter, they're probably not going to have much faith the next time you put out predictions. If they view your predictions as a floor or lower-end guidance, they'll have more confidence you can at least achieve that.

Like Sony's PSP/Vita forecast is pathetic, but at least investors won't think they're completely delusional about the sales potential of the devices and wonder what else they're delusional about.

 

[liger05]

Well, it would at least convince investors they have a sense of the sales potential of their products.

There's a reason you see companies like Activision and EA try to post conservative forecasts in general.

Or basically it goes back to "Knowing you have a problem is the first step." If you're not convincing investors you actually understand the difficulties you're facing, especially if you're revising down expectations almost every quarter, they're probably not going to have much faith the next time you put out predictions. If they view your predictions as a floor or lower-end guidance, they'll have more confidence you can at least achieve that.

But surely a lower than usual forecast sends a bad message to investors. Sony has gone from 16 mil PSP/Vita's to 5 mil this FY. I dont see how investors look at that other than WTF is going on?

 

[FoneBone]

But surely a lower than usual forecast sends a bad message to investors. Sony has gone from 16 mil PSP/Vita's to 5 mil this FY. I dont see how investors look at that other than WTF is going on?

It does send a negative message, to be sure, but is it really more negative than forecasting 16 million and not even hitting half of that?

 

[Nirolak]

But surely a lower than usual forecast sends a bad message to investors. Sony has gone from 16 mil PSP/Vita's to 5 mil this FY. I dont see how investors look at that other than WTF is going on?

Oh it sends a terrible message, but it's just less bad than predicting 16 and only selling 5 since at least it implies you aren't pouring in tons of money expecting a result of 16 million.

Like if THQ's expectations for uDraw were 2 million lower than they actually were, they wouldn't have had 1.4 million unsold uDraw tablets sitting around and eating up over $100 million in cash.

Investors would think investing in the tablet might have been a dumb idea in the first place, but it wouldn't have hurt their cash pile nearly as much and would have let their success with Saints Row 3 shine through instead.

 

[metalslimer]

The more negative message to investors is projecting much higher than going low because investors end up thinking you have no idea what you're doing which for NIntendo over the last few years they really just have no idea of their position in the market. And now they are likely to miss both the 3DS and Wii U forecasts although 3DS will be much closer than Wii U.

 

[pieatorium]

The difference is that it's a negative message once, Nintendo will be giving out negative messages every quarter when they revise down their WiiU unless they revise it down by about 2 million at the next quarter report.

 

[Mpl90]

The more negative message to investors is projecting much higher than going low because investors end up thinking you have no idea what you're doing which for NIntendo over the last few years they really just have no idea of their position in the market. And now they are likely to miss both the 3DS and Wii U forecasts.

I think they have a chance to hit 3DS forecast, given the declaration of war that it has instead of a lineup (seriously ), but the more time passes, the more the 9 millions for Wii U become implausible, even with a relaunch in the last months of 2013.

 

[Nirolak]

I think they have a chance to hit 3DS forecast, given the declaration of war that it has instead of a lineup (seriously ), but the more time passes, the more the 9 millions for Wii U become implausible, even with a relaunch in the last months of 2013.

To me the 3DS pretty much hinges on what impact Pokemon has in the West, since I feel it's the game most likely to appeal to demographic that doesn't already own the system, but has a high propensity of picking it up.

 

[liger05]

The Wii U forecast was crazy but whats the benefit for Iwata in going in at 9 mil? If he could go lower why not or is that a forecast of 6 mil for instance wouldn't of been good enough?

 

[Nirolak]

The Wii U forecast was crazy but whats the benefit for Iwata in going in at 9 mil? If he could go lower why not or is that he a forecast of 6 mil for instance wouldnt of been good enough?

Well my assumption would be they think they can actually hit 9 million with the titles they have coming out this Fall and in Q1.

I mean 9 million in a year isn't an astronomical number for a console, it just looks that way due to how the Wii U is doing right now.

 

[metalslimer]

I think they have a chance to hit 3DS forecast, given the declaration of war that it has instead of a lineup (seriously ), but the more time passes, the more the 9 millions for Wii U become implausible, even with a relaunch in the last months of 2013.

As Nirolak said, Pokemon will be the key, but something tells me we will see another model 3DS near the end of the year in Japan at least.

Well my assumption would be they think they can actually hit 9 million with the titles they have coming out this Fall and in Q1.

I mean 9 million in a year isn't an astronomical number for a console, it just looks that way due to how the Wii U is doing right now.

They seem to think the Wii U will reverse even harder than the 3DS did because they have to know that April, May, and June may as well not exist for their shipments and unless their is pricecut to go along with Pikmin 3 that won't provide a significant boost as well. They are predicting one hell of a comeback

 

[Nirolak]

As Nirolak said, Pokemon will be the key, but something tells me we will see another model 3DS near the end of the year in Japan at least.

Well in their call they said they don't expect any marketing costs around hardware launches this year.

I'm not entirely clear if that includes revisions.

They seem to think the Wii U will reverse even harder than the 3DS did because they have to know that April, May, and June may as well not exist for their shipments and unless their is pricecut to go along with Pikmin 3 that won't provide a significant boost as well. They are predicting one hell of a comeback

Yeah they're basically betting entirely on Q4 and potentially Q1 2014.

 

[pieatorium]

I mean 9 million in a year isn't an astronomical number for a console, it just looks that way due to how the Wii U is doing right now.

It's actually what the PS3 managed to ship in year 2, PS3 was selling poorly but relatively much better than the WiiU is at comparable time

 

[Nirolak]

It's actually what the PS3 managed to ship in year 2, PS3 was selling poorly but relatively much better than the WiiU is at comparable time

From Nintendo's perspective I can definitely see why they predicted it. Going off the way the Wii entries of their upcoming titles sold, they probably feel a gigantic decline isn't likely.

Whether that is actually true is the main question.

 

[metalslimer]

It's actually what the PS3 managed to ship in year 2, PS3 was selling poorly but relatively much better than the WiiU is at comparable time

It's not so much that the number is so unreachable goal. The problem is that they have nothing until the latter part of the year so they are stretching believabiliy with that number.

From Nintendo's perspective I can definitely see why they predicted it. Going off the way the Wii entries of their upcoming titles sold, they probably feel a gigantic decline isn't likely.

After Brain Training and to a lesser extent Nintendogs , I wonder if they seriously think people are going to lineup to buy the next Wii Fit and Wii Party. I'm honestly glad Nintendo can't get up on stage at E3 and drone on about how Wii Fit U will change your life.

 

[Father_Brain]

It's not so much that the number is so unreachable goal. The problem is that they have nothing until the latter part of the year so they are stretching believabiliy with that number.

IIRC, given current sales, they'd have to start averaging over 1M worldwide a month (around a 9-10x increase) beginning in August to reach 9M.

 

[liger05]

They seem to think the Wii U will reverse even harder than the 3DS did because they have to know that April, May, and June may as well not exist for their shipments and unless their is pricecut to go along with Pikmin 3 that won't provide a significant boost as well. They are predicting one hell of a comeback

That's the biggest thing. To make such a forecast knowing no titles were out for 3 of those months seems mighty brave.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Well my assumption would be they think they can actually hit 9 million with the titles they have coming out this Fall and in Q1.

And a price-cut in due time may possibly help too methinks.

 

[Father_Brain]

And a price-cut in due time may possibly help too methinks.

They're definitely not planning on a price cut, or Iwata wouldn't have set a 100 billion yen profit as his goal for the FY.

Doesn't mean it won't happen, of course. In any case, I'm skeptical that they could sell 9M even with one.

 

[metalslimer]

And a price-cut in due time may possibly help too methinks.

This is what I'm wondering. If they pricecut, do they even pricecut in Japan? If they do a normal pricecut in Japan Wii U will be priced the same as the 3DS XL (!), so I don't see that happening.

They're definitely not planning on a price cut, or Iwata wouldn't have set a 100 billion yen profit as his goal for the FY.

Doesn't mean it won't happen, of course. In any case, I'm skeptical that they could sell 9M even with one.

Well we discuss Vita in terms of retailers, but who exactly is going to order a lot more Wii Us this holiday without a pricecut? The situation is a disaster in the UK in terms of market availability. The reason why Nintendo cut the 3DS price in August and not November was so that retailers would order more for the holidays

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

IIRC, given current sales, they'd have to start averaging over 1M worldwide a month (around a 9-10x increase) beginning in August to reach 9M.

This why I do not believe it will reach that goal.

 

[electroplankton]

Instead of a price cut, they could just put NSMBU in bundle, a far more attractive software than Nintendo Land.

 

[Nirolak]

Instead of a price cut, they could just put NSMBU in bundle, a far more attractive software than Nintendo Land.

Well really they don't lose out putting in both.

 

[Mario007]

Instead of a price cut, they could just put NSMBU in bundle, a far more attractive software than Nintendo Land.

So basically a 50 euro pricecut on the delux bundle. That could work a bit...

 

[Gianni Merryman]

They're definitely not planning on a price cut, or Iwata wouldn't have set a 100 billion yen profit as his goal for the FY.

May that forecast partly due to the yen getting weaker?

Doesn't mean it won't happen, of course.

I am not sure either it is going to happen, but if they are doing a price cue, they are going to wait until official prices for Ps4 and NextBox, so that they may cut the price and make look Wi U more convenient in comparison.

In any case, I'm skeptical that they could sell 9M even with one.

Yeah, it seems a little high to me as well.

Instead of a price cut, they could just put NSMBU in bundle, a far more attractive software than Nintendo Land.

Agreed, or even better new 3D Mario game would make it more appealing as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Sandfox]

Instead of a price cut, they could just put NSMBU in bundle, a far more attractive software than Nintendo Land.

I think Mario Kart is more likely. It would be interesting if Nintendo Land continued to be bundled as well but that's probably not going to happen.

 

[electroplankton]

I'm not saying Wii U will achieve the forecast, but I'm just curious to see what Nintendo is planning to achieve it. Sony is not even trying, Nintendo seems to have some strategy. We'll see.

 

[Nirolak]

I'm not saying Wii U will achieve the forecast, but I'm just curious to see what Nintendo is planning to achieve it. Sony is not even trying, Nintendo seems to have some strategy. We'll see.

Right I think the benefit here is that Nintendo actually has relevant first party console software whereas Sony has basically zero relevant first party handheld software.