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[shinra-bansho]

Nintendo's forecast is misguided. I don't think they've hit a forecast in years.

There isn't a sound strategy behind both forecasting 9M Wii Us and 100B yen in profit.

The latter implies no movement on price, and the strategy seems entirely contingent on major titles in Q4 essentially increasing sales by an order of magnitude thereafter.

As for a half-measure like bundling NSMBU instead of a price-cut, I don't see what that would do - NSMBU seems much more the go-to game people buy when they buy a Wii U, not necessarily a game that spurs sale. Half-measures like a $50 price cut aren't going to work.

 

[Thorgal]

so ... to reach that target Nintendo would have to perform the biggest sales 180 miracle in gaming history ?

Call me pessimistic but i think i am not betting on that horse .


i also want to know where nintendo's blind optimism keeps coming from in thinking they can sell that much .

Sony's forecasts for this year are certainly atrocious but atleast they put out something that is whithin the realm of possibility of achieving even if thats a slim chance .

Nintendo on the other still have there head stuck in the clouds apparently .


this has been on mind for a while : can japan as it is nowactually support 2 handhelds or 2 consoles?



i am starting to think it can't.

 

[L Thammy]

If we're talking about booting Iwata, I think it's important to note some of the Wii U's problem areas.


1. Hardware design. The Wii U shipped with a slow, incomplete OS. Several major features were missing. If memory serves, hackers had discovered notes left behind in the OS. Normally those would be removed before release.

2. Software development. From the first party side, games that were supposed to come out in the "launch window" didn't. I seem to recall reading that devs were not given fully featured SDKs at first, either.

3. Marketing. There is confusion as to what the Wii U is and what it does, and Nintendo is not solving it.


The software problem arises from the hardware problem. I'm not sure what the root cause of the marketing problem is, but hardware and software exasperate it. This is not a strategy issue. It's an inability to follow one's own stated strategy. It wasn't like Nintendo made a plan, followed it, then found out that it wasn't a good plan. They couldn't even follow the plan they had set.

Of these three, marketing is the one that is most entirely a strategical issue. If the other two are not, then they cannot simply be solved by removing Iwata - the strategic head. There are internal issues that need to be sorted out. And that's just to stop more problems from cropping up.

Fixing the problems they already have requires something else to be done, and I'm not sure what that should be.

this has been on mind for a while : can japan as it is nowactually support 2 handhelds or 2 consoles?



i am starting to think it can't.

There's also the possibility that it can only support one handheld and zero consoles. Not sure where it actually is right now.

 

[Nekki]

They revise (down) every quarter and they still fail. They'll fail again, no way they hit these targets.

Maybe this Wii U failure will shake the company. Iwata will be the first to move out, for better or worse.

I don't know how to take this. I mean, sure, Iwata isn't really doing a great job (in some areas he is, but not the most relevant ones sadly). But who comes after him? What does he do to steer the ship??

I have no idea how Nintendo recovers from this (but I believe they will).

 

[metalslimer]

I'm not saying Wii U will achieve the forecast, but I'm just curious to see what Nintendo is planning to achieve it. Sony is not even trying, Nintendo seems to have some strategy. We'll see.

Not really. Sony's Vita forecast last year was also high which deluded many people into thinking "Hey Sony has a huge plan"!! was based on absolutely nothing besides blind hope. Nintendo hasn't hit a forecast in years , so I don't really see some grand strategy brewing besides them once again being overconfident

 

[Hero]

Not really. Sony's Vita forecast last year was also high which deluded many people into thinking "Hey Sony has a huge plan"!! was based on absolutely nothing besides blind hope. Nintendo hasn't hit a forecast in years , so I don't really see some grand strategy brewing besides them once again being overconfident

I'm not saying they'll hit the forecast because right now there's nothing on the horizon that we know about to make that happen but I would think Nintendo cares more about Wii U than Sony does about Vita.

 

[Chris1964]

Nintendo's master plan for Wii U this year will be something like this:

Release Mario Kart and 3D Mario before holidays. Maybe do a small official price drop.
That's it.

Good luck hitting the targets.

 

[Madouu]

Nintendo's master plan for Wii U this year will be something like this:

Release Mario Kart and 3D Mario before holidays. Maybe do a small official price drop.
That's it.

Good luck hitting the targets.

lol

The sad truth (Well not so sad for me as I'm looking forward to those)

 

[CrisKre]

Another possible scenario I see is them releasing wii u sports and offering a bundle with it during the holidays with some advertising to try and echo the wii in public perception. That just may work in my opinion to capture some casual attention.

 

[BishopLamont]

Nintendo's master plan for Wii U this year will be something like this:

Release Mario Kart and 3D Mario before holidays. Maybe do a small official price drop.
That's it.

Good luck hitting the targets.

Well here's Sony's regarding Vita:

 

[Hero]

Nintendo's master plan for Wii U this year will be something like this:

Release Mario Kart and 3D Mario before holidays. Maybe do a small official price drop.
That's it.

Good luck hitting the targets.

Right, this is probably close to the truth but it's still something. Sony has nothing for the Vita.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Nintendo's master plan for Wii U this year will be something like this:

Release Mario Kart and 3D Mario before holidays. Maybe do a small official price drop.
That's it.

Good luck hitting the targets.

The inconvenient truth.

As someone said before WiiU would have to do 5-6 million in sales from August. With next gen coming, massive third party games not coming to the WiiU, ps3 or 360 likely getting a price cut, a mario kart and 3d mario is not going to cut it.

In Japan it may boost the system in the holiday months but they need to have consistent line of software to keep it up which Nintendo are incapable of doing without third parties.

 

[Nibel]

Nintendo's master plan for Wii U this year will be something like this:

Release Mario Kart and 3D Mario before holidays. Maybe do a small official price drop.
That's it.

Good luck hitting the targets.

Well here's Sony's regarding Vita:

:lol

 

[StreetsAhead]

The thing is, if this was 2009 this line-up would look pretty darn good for the second half of the year, taken as a whole.

1. Pikmin 3
2. Wii Fit U
3. Wii Party U
4. TW101
5. Wind Waker HD
6. Lego City Undercover
7. Rayman Legends
8. Mario Kart 8
9. 3D Mario

In 2013, especially with a DEAD first half of the year, it's probably not going to cut it in the same way. Of course, if the PS4 is >40,000 yen, it'll probably not be jumping out the gate with the current announced launch line-up, either. Interesting times ahead, none-the-less.

 

[electroplankton]

Of course they won't hit the target, but at least everyone is curious to see what's Nintendo strategy. I'm not trying to draw similarities, but no one expected MH3G for 3DS in December when it was announced.

 

[metalslimer]

Well here's Sony's regarding Vita:

The rallying cry for the next year. What does Sony giving up on VIta have anything to do with what he said?

In Japan it may boost the system in the holiday months but they need to have consistent line of software to keep it up which Nintendo are incapable of doing without third parties.

Which is exactly why Wii started floundering in Japan first. Without 3rd party support whatever gains Nintendo makes with the Wii U will be for naught when they go crashing right back down.

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

I don't know about Japan but with the yen slipping below the dollar a $50 price cut is doable in NA/EU.

 

[pieatorium]

Of course they won't hit the target, but at least everyone is curious to see what's Nintendo strategy. I'm not trying to draw similarities, but no one expected MH3G for 3DS in December when it was announced.

The problem with their forecast is the extremely low current sales leading into a historically low sales period with even less games releasing than usual in this barren time for releases.

Shipment are likely to be incredibly low for this quarter and I don't see pikmin improving that much in the next quarter but it should improve if they have some other small releases/multiplats to go along with it.

Basically everything is riding on a huge Q4, not just huge compared to what WiiU has been doing but Huge for a system that is doing well.

 

[StreetsAhead]

The problem with their forecast is the extremely low current sales leading into a historically low sales period with even less games releasing than usual in this barren time for releases.

Shipment are likely to be incredibly low for this quarter and I don't see pikmin improving that much in the next quarter but it should improve if they have some other small releases/multiplats to go along with it.

Basically everything is riding on a huge Q4, not just huge compared to what WiiU has been doing but Huge for a system that is doing well.

It's not as if Pikmin will be the only thing launching in Q2.

 

[pieatorium]

It's not as if Pikmin will be the only thing launching in Q2.

Yes i mentioned that. What do you think they could get that would cause them to push more shipments than they did in q1 where they only shipped 440k worldwide?

 

[StreetsAhead]

Yes i mentioned that. What do you think they could get that would cause them to push more shipments than they did in q1 where they only shipped 440k worldwide?

I apologise, I misread. I think if they can get Pikmin, Wii Fit, Wii Play, maybe WWHD, and TW101 (plus maybe Legends, but Japan so probs no) then they may have a shot at improving on FY12Q4, certainly in Japan.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Of course they won't hit the target, but at least everyone is curious to see what's Nintendo strategy. I'm not trying to draw similarities, but no one expected MH3G for 3DS in December when it was announced.

Chris already outlined the strategy above.

Yes i mentioned that. What do you think they could get that would cause them to push more shipments than they did in q1 where they only shipped 440k worldwide?

390K, iirc. Wait are we talking about fiscal quarters or calendar quarters? Pikmin is out in FYQ2, there's pretty much nothing in FYQ1.

I don't know how to take this. I mean, sure, Iwata isn't really doing a great job (in some areas he is, but not the most relevant ones sadly). But who comes after him? What does he do to steer the ship??

This seems to be brought up a lot. I think the Nintendo Directs and Iwata Asks have essentially conflated Iwata and Nintendo as one. If Nintendo really has no one in their leadership or potential leadership who can eventually succeed Iwata then that's a major issue.

 

[electroplankton]

Chris already outlined the strategy above.

It might be true, it might be just not that. Again, I'm not drawing similarities, but MH3G for 3DS was announced in September, and no one was expecting a launch for December. Perhaps Nintendo doesn't have anything outisde the two Mario, but since they still have to talk about them and the other releases, I'm curious to see how they set up the second half of 2013.

 

[shinra-bansho]

It might be true, it might be just not that. Again, I'm not drawing similarities, but MH3G for 3DS was announced in September, and no one was expecting a launch for December. Perhaps Nintendo doesn't have anything outisde the two Mario, but since they still have to talk about them and the other releases, I'm curious to see how they set up the second half of 2013.

I really can't see there being some sort of major coup, in terms of a third party title, mainly because I don't think such a title exists, nor if one were to exist do I think it's plausible for Nintendo to get it exclusively.

The other systems don't rely purely on a singular franchise but rather the cumulative effect of the console titles/franchises like COD, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Metal Gear, The Elder Scrolls; not in the same way that the PSP and later PSV's viability was essentially completely dependent upon having/not having Monster Hunter.

 

[electroplankton]

I really can't see there being some sort of major coup, in terms of a third party title, mainly because I don't think such a title exists, nor if one were to exist do I think it's plausible for Nintendo to get it exclusively.

The other systems don't rely purely on a singular franchise but rather the cumulative effect of the console titles/franchises like COD, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Metal Gear, The Elder Scrolls; not in the same way that the PSP and later PSV's viability was essentially completely dependent upon having/not having Monster Hunter.

True, that was just an example. MH3G was just one of the reasons that propelled 3DS sales in Japan. Along with the two Mario games, and the price cut, hardware sales got a boost. Anyway, what I was saying is that Nintendo still have to announce the strategy for the second half of 2013. It might just be what Chris is saying (Chris also predicted Fantasy Life bombing, just saying), but I'm still curious to see how they will line up the releases, what actually those releases are (for example, whether Mario Kart will be the same Mario Kart or something like Mario Kart All-Star), which other collaborations Nintendo has in the pipeline (Iwata stated there are other after the one with Atlus), etc.

Again, I'm not drawing similarities, but during Summer 2011 no one expected MH for 3DS, at least not for Decemeber of the same year, and no one expected something like the Fall Conference they had for 3DS. I'm not saying Wii U will have something similar (it won't) nor a similar third parties support, but again, I really want to know what they're planning for the rest of the year (and something is in the pipeline given the forecast).

It's not the wishful thinking I was reading for Vita, like 2014-2015 will be the year of Vita, or Sony is happy with crappy sales this year to see a boost in later years. It's just curiosity to see what Nintendo is planning to push hardware sales. Just Mario 3D and Mario Kart? Maybe, but will there be bundles? Will they be released in December, or before? How will they advertise it? Etc.

 

[pieatorium]

but again, I really want to know what they're planning for the rest of the year (and something is in the pipeline given the forecast).

Or they are just going to constantly revise down their forecast like they have been doing for the last few years for all their platforms.

 

[electroplankton]

Or they are just going to constantly revise down their forecast like they have been doing for the last few years for all their platforms.

Maybe. Last time they expected to ship 5 million Wii U and they actually ship 3.45 million, which is not really a huge difference (Sony expected to ship 10 million Vita, how much did they end to ship? 5 million?). This time it seems they have something planned for the second half of the year. It might not work, eventually consumers will decide whether Wii U is attracting or not given the releases, the price, the bundles if any, etc.

The fact is, Nintendo still has to make clear the plan for the second half of the year, hence I'm curious what they're planning. It's not so difficult to understand, you can read my previous posts, I wrote exactly that.

 

[Spiegel]

Maybe. Last time they expected to ship 5 million Wii U and they actually ship 3.45 million, which is not really a huge difference (Sony expected to ship 10 million Vita, how much did they end to ship? 5 million?). This time it seems they have something planned for the second half of the year. It might not work, eventually consumers will decide whether Wii U is attracting or not given the releases, the price, the bundles if any, etc.

The fact is, Nintendo still has to make clear the plan for the second half of the year, hence I'm curious what they're planning. It's not so difficult to understand, you can read my previous posts, I wrote exactly that.

3DS initial FY2012 forecast

Hardware 18.5M
Software 73M

Actual results

Hardware 13.95M
Software 49.61M

3DS initial FY2011 forecast

Hardware 16M
Software 62M

Actual results

Hardware 13.53M
Software 36M

 

[shinra-bansho]

(and something is in the pipeline given the forecast).

As above, I don't see what the basis of this is.

Here are the original forecasts and actuals for FYE March 2012

              NDS      Wii      3DS
Forecast      11.0     13.0      16.0
Actual        5.1      9.84      13.53

 

[electroplankton]

3DS initial FY2012 forecast

Hardware 18.5M
Software 73M

Actual results

Hardware 13.95M
Software 49.61M

3DS initial FY2011 forecast

Hardware 16M
Software 62M

Actual results

Hardware 13.53M
Software 36M

As above, I don't see what the basis of this is.

Here are the original forecasts and actuals for FYE March 2012

              NDS      Wii      3DS
Forecast      11.0     13.0      16.0
Actual        5.1      9.84      13.53

Weren't we speaking about Wii U? I know they revised down 3DS forecasts a lot of time.

The basis are: Nintendo has confirmed the two Mario games out before the fiscal year ends. Hence, I'm curious how they will be, which release dates they will chose, whether there will be bundles, how they will organize the other releases, whether they have some other games planned, etc. I don't understand what's so difficult to get.

 

[pieatorium]

Maybe. Last time they expected to ship 5 million Wii U and they actually ship 3.45 million, which is not really a huge difference (Sony expected to ship 10 million Vita, how much did they end to ship? 5 million?). This time it seems they have something planned for the second half of the year. It might not work, eventually consumers will decide whether Wii U is attracting or not given the releases, the price, the bundles if any, etc.

The fact is, Nintendo still has to make clear the plan for the second half of the year, hence I'm curious what they're planning. It's not so difficult to understand, you can read my previous posts, I wrote exactly that.

5 million to 3.45 is actually a huge difference, over 30% lower than forecast, If they manage that again they will ship only 6 million this fy(not a prediction before you single this part out). The Vita was even worse yes but that doesn't change the story here.

You wrote that it's obvious they actually have something in the pipeline because of the forecast number but history would suggest that their forecasts are on the high end, you could say unattainably high since its been several years in a row where they haven't hit a single forecast for any platform.

 

[StreetsAhead]

I'm fully prepared to accept that they have nothing. No surprises, no real strategy, no nothing.

Looking back to this time 12 months ago, though, when we didn't know about Bayonetta 2, the 3DSXL, TW101, Namco Smash, SMT X FE, LttP2, and so on; things that would have had you laughed at if you predicted them, I can't help but imagine they have something.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The point isn't which product they're forecasting, the point is that their forecasting is terrible regardless of product, and doesn't imply any super secret and/or elaborate strategy in the works.

Going back a year further.

FYE 03/11	NDS	Wii
Forecast	30	18
Actual	        17.52	15.08

They missed their initial NDS forecast that year by 12.5M units.

 

[Sandfox]

I'm fully prepared to accept that they have nothing. No surprises, no real strategy, no nothing.

Looking back to this time 12 months ago, though, when we didn't know about Bayonetta 2, the 3DSXL, TW101, Namco Smash, SMT X FE, LttP2, and so on; things that would have had you laughed at if you predicted them, I can't help but imagine they have something.

We know for a fact that they have something giving the comments they've made about how they are going to act following the release of Pikmin 3.

 

[pieatorium]

Weren't we speaking about Wii U? I know they revised down 3DS forecasts a lot of time.

The basis are: Nintendo has confirmed the two Mario games out before the fiscal year ends. Hence, I'm curious how they will be, which release dates they will chose, whether there will be bundles, how they will organize the other releases, whether they have some other games planned, etc. I don't understand what's so difficult to get.

People aren't questioning your curiosity they are questioning your reasoning that the forecast shows that there is obviously a plan in place to hit that forecast rather than them just forecasting high and then missing it over and over like all their previous forecasts

 

[BishopLamont]

The rallying cry for the next year. What does Sony giving up on VIta have anything to do with what he said?

Its a funny, yet true joke, thats all. Relax.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

FY 2012/03/31 Wii Forecast vs Actual:

Hardware

Fct - 10.5m
Act - 3.98m

Software

Fct - 70m
Act - 50.61m

So yes, it's just Sony that get their forecasts wrong...

:rollseyes

 

[AdventureRacing]

I don't know why anyone gives either Sony or Nintendo the benefit of the doubt with these predictions. It seems like every time they make one of these outrageous forecasts there are people talking about how they will make it happen but it never seems to happen.

 

[BishopLamont]

FY 2012/03/31 Wii Forecast vs Actual:

Hardware

Fct - 10.5m
Act - 3.98m

Software

Fct - 70m
Act - 50.61m

So yes, it's just Sony that get their forecasts wrong...

:rollseyes

I don't think anyone ever said Sony is the only company.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I don't think anyone ever said Sony is the only company.

Maybe. Last time they expected to ship 5 million Wii U and they actually ship 3.45 million, which is not really a huge difference (Sony expected to ship 10 million Vita, how much did they end to ship? 5 million?). This time it seems they have something planned for the second half of the year. It might not work, eventually consumers will decide whether Wii U is attracting or not given the releases, the price, the bundles if any, etc.

The fact is, Nintendo still has to make clear the plan for the second half of the year, hence I'm curious what they're planning. It's not so difficult to understand, you can read my previous posts, I wrote exactly that.

In response to this:

Or they are just going to constantly revise down their forecast like they have been doing for the last few years for all their platforms.

Seems to imply that Nintendo does not miss their forecasts by such a margin when they clearly have several times as shown by other posters.

 

[electroplankton]

People aren't questioning your curiosity they are questioning your reasoning that the forecast shows that there is obviously a plan in place to hit that forecast rather than them just forecasting high and then missing it over and over like all their previous forecasts

They have something in the pipeline. Just the two Mario games? It might be, in that case I'm curious to know what the plan is for them. But of course if they forecasted 9 million, even if they have to revise down (and they will), they must still have something to hit even half of that. Unless they eventually have to ship 2 million units, which is of course not realistic.

 

[Chris1964]

Wii U original hw forecast: 5,50M
Wii U actual hw shipments: 3,45M

Wii U original sw forecast: 24,00M
Wii U actual sw shipments: 13,42M

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=545984

 

[pieatorium]

They have something in the pipeline. Just the two Mario games? It might be, in that case I'm curious to know what the plan is for them. But of course if they forecasted 9 million, even if they have to revise down (and they will), they must still have something to hit even half of that. Unless they eventually have to ship 2 million units, which is of course not realistic.

The something they have to hit half of that is 3D and Kart Mario. Imo that alone will see them better their q3+4 performance for fy12.

The problem though like I said earlier in the thread is that this quarter is going to be an abysmally low shipment less than q4 fy12(390k), nothing they can do to stop that. Pikmin + WiiFit + some other third party stuff and hey they might pull a decent shipment of 1 mill for q2 fy 13 (i find this unlikely but getting some extra stock on shelves ready for black friday might help the end of this q?).

That leaves them with needing to ship 7.5+ million for q3+4 of fy 13. This is not out of the realms of realism for a healthy platform but I see it as highly unlikely. Even if there wasn't two more new competing platforms being launched I think it would be hard for them to hit these numbers this year.

 

[Nekki]

This seems to be brought up a lot. I think the Nintendo Directs and Iwata Asks have essentially conflated Iwata and Nintendo as one. If Nintendo really has no one in their leadership or potential leadership who can eventually succeed Iwata then that's a major issue.

I agree. Frankly I wouldn't like to see him go, I quite like the guy. But if he's incompetent at his position, then so be it.

Anyways, how was the situation before Iwata took the position?? Was he well known? Did he ever appear alongside Miyamoto, Yamauchi, or somebody? Or was the case that barely anybody knew who he was when he was given the job??

He probably was known as a developer in HAL I guess, but I ask because I wasn't following way back when.

 

[Rolf NB]

Revising platform HW up while at the same time revising platform SW down can IMO only mean price drop combined with new problems in the software schedule.

e: sry, techincally they're projecting sales to go up/down, which is not the same thing as revising previous projections up/down.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Nintendo's master plan for Wii U this year will be something like this:

Release Mario Kart and 3D Mario before holidays. Maybe do a small official price drop.
That's it.

Good luck hitting the targets.

That would probably move about 3M units between Nov/Dec in the US.

 

[metalslimer]

That would probably move about 3M units between Nov/Dec in the US.

Are you seriously expecting a platform selling 50-60k to go to 1 million in November and 2 million in December? Even for a healthy platform that would be extremely optimistic. Not to mention this isn't a normal holiday. They have the other next gen consoles coming out which will flood the airwaves with marketing, a likely cheaper PS3/360, increasing mobile base, and to top it off kids will likely be going for 3DS this holiday for the first big Pokemon game. They have pretty much everything stacked against them. Do you realize that even the 3DS with its great recovery did not sell 3 million in that period with a much cheaper price, the fact that people buy multiple 3DSes, and a distinct lack of handheld competiton?

 

[BishopLamont]

Does it really matter whether they hit their projections or not? Whats important is how much they're selling and how much they profit in the end. Nintendo do overestimate but they also underestimate alot aswell. Videogame market is pretty hard to predict, especially Nintendo's consoles, software sells hardware and when there's a problem in the software side its gonna mangle everything up, same as if hardware is underperforming, software side takes a hit too. Launch period to top it off means its even harder to predict.

Whether they hit the 9M projection depends on how the launch of Durango/PS4 goes and what their holiday schedule is. I understand the whole "this time, for sure, really!" promise Iwata keeps giving that people are doubting, but the Wii U is in real need of proper support this holiday and onwards, they can't possibly fuck it up. I would be the first to denounce Iwata if it is the case.

Are you seriously expecting a platform selling 50-60k to go to 1 million in November and 2 million in December? Even for a healthy platform that would be extremely optimistic. Not to mention this isn't a normal holiday. They have the other next gen consoles coming out which

Worldwide with the right support? Yes its possible.

I'm not gonna edit that quote

 

[shinra-bansho]

They haven't underestimated in 5 years.

That would probably move about 3M units between Nov/Dec in the US.

...

Mario Kart, 3D Mario and a half-measure price drop are not going to make the Wii U sell like the Wii.

I have to wonder whether internally Nintendo actually thinks like this too. If so...

 

[metalslimer]

...

Mario Kart, 3D Mario and a half-measure price drop are not going to make the Wii U sell like the Wii.

I have to wonder whether internally Nintendo actually thinks like this too. If so...

Well they vastly overestimated the effect NSMB2 would have on the 3DS last year and they vastly overestimated how popular NSMBU would be. I think Nintendo legitimately believes they are going to be fine with the 2 new Wii games this year in Wii Party and Fit and think combining that with Mario Kart and 3D Mario is an amazing lineup for them. My interest is if they seriously intend to go forward this holiday thinking that the price of Wii U is just fine.

Worldwide with the right support? Yes its possible.

I'm not gonna edit that quote

Confused...you know he said US right?