I'm curious with this statement. How many years does the PS4 need to reach 5 million and consider it as "easily fly past 5 million"?
Many years. I have revised down my already mediocre LTD expectations for PS4 a lot.
I'm curious with this statement. How many years does the PS4 need to reach 5 million and consider it as "easily fly past 5 million"?
The difference between the Wii U and PS4 is going to be that the PS4 will have more consistent support in the future.I really can't see PS4 hitting 5 million at all.
Vita will probably hit 5 million, but it'll still take a while, and i don't see it doing too much more.
The traditional industry has just collapsed too much.
PS4 with no games at all for this first year, and then just those big games few and far after that makes it really look like Wii U in that regard.
i find it amusing that the wII U is still beating the PS4 in japan.
Japan ,,, with all respect, is the only country in the world that video games fans behave in a strange way
Looks like Mario Kart 8 will outsell Double Dash in Japan. Anyone else feel the same?
Can we then use this to predict that Smash Wii U will outsell Melee? Does anyone have the LTD sales and week three sales for Melee?
No you can't, Melee didn't launch a few months after a handheld version.
Wonder if Nintendo could have Animal Crossing WiiU as their big spring 2015 title ready, essentially taking the spot MK8 has for 2014. A real home console AC with NFC figures could sell some consoles. I wonder how big the team is though, since a part of the team is working on Splatoon as well iirc.
I'm curious with this statement. How many years does the PS4 need to reach 5 million and consider it as "easily fly past 5 million"?
Wait, in the Wii U Animal Crossing Plaza can't you select which villagers are your favourite? What if Nintendo is using the Plaza to determine which characters are the most popular, via favourites and amount of discussion, to decide which characters they should sell as amiibo figures when/if the Wii U version of Animal Crossing comes out?
This could be a pretty huge source of revenue if it happens, and it takes off.
Wait, in the Wii U Animal Crossing Plaza can't you select which villagers are your favourite? What if Nintendo is using the Plaza to determine which characters are the most popular, via favourites and amount of discussion, to decide which characters they should sell as amiibo figures when/if the Wii U version of Animal Crossing comes out?
This could be a pretty huge source of revenue if it happens, and it takes off.
I believe here are all release dates that have been confirmed:
Kamen Rider: Battride War 2 - June 26th
Wii Sports Club - July 17th
Monster Hunter Frontier G5 - July 23rd
Dragon Quest X: All in One Package - August 7th
Zelda Musou - August 14th
Bayonetta 2 - September 20th
The difference between the Wii U and PS4 is going to be that the PS4 will have more consistent support in the future.
I'm curious with this statement. How many years does the PS4 need to reach 5 million and consider it as "easily fly past 5 million"?
But it's not like it'll be getting more games than Vita, and Wii U's games are arguably bigger as well.
Time will tell if PS4 kills those franchises as Wii U has done with Nintendo's games.
I believe here are all release dates that have been confirmed:
Kamen Rider: Battride War 2 - June 26th
Wii Sports Club - July 17th
Monster Hunter Frontier G5 - July 23rd
Dragon Quest X: All in One Package - August 7th
Zelda Musou - August 14th
Bayonetta 2 - September 20th
Most franchises already had a steep decline in their transition from PS2 to PS3, like the former million sellers Winning Eleven and the Dynasty Warrior series. It´s likely that this trend will continue for several reasons, the most obvious being PS4s performance in the Japanese market. Another reason is that some franchises likely will face franchise fatigue due to a high release frequency, the most notable examples are the yearly Dynasty Warrior series and the several Gundam games. Anime licensed software in general likely wont reach the heights of One Piece Musou, Ken Musou or JoJo on PS3 due to to many people being burnt by the low quality and the decline of popularity/old age of former strong franchises - Naruto and Dragon Ball for example. Final Fantasy XV is the only guaranteed million seller but even this game will likely underperform compared to XIII.
Well maybe I exaggerated a bit with ''easily fly past'' but I still think it will definitely sell over 5 million. It will take time. If I remember right PS3 went over five million in april 2010 so from PS3 it took about three and half years (had huge boost in december 2009 thanks to FFXIII). I just have hard time to believe that PS4 would crash from 10 million to under 5 million with pretty much same games.
It's not all about big games. Small/mid-sized games are equally as important, and we don't know how the PS4 will fare with those. I would say the main reason behind PS2 > PS3 decline is not because of FF/MGS etc decline, It's because of overall decline in games released in general.
Games released in Japan (include PSN games)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/comp_faqs.html
PS1: 3263
PS2: 2900
PS3: 1089 (so far)
PS4: 41(so far), for comparison the PS2 had over 1000 game release in it's first 2 years or so.
In the PS1/PS2 days you had new games releasing every single week, through the whole year. This is not the case anymore. Now we have systems like the Wii U that go whole months without a single new release.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Final_Fantasy_XV#Possible_sequelsSequels to Final Fantasy XV were hinted at with the line "A World of the Versus Epic" in the E3 2013 trailer. Nomura explained that the game had a self-contained climax and that it was the first part of an intended continued epic. He said that Square Enix was considering using online elements and developing shorter stand-alone titles to keep players interested and to avoid long waiting times for them.[ "野村哲也氏を直撃! 『ファイナルファンタジーXV』&『キングダム ハーツIII』最速インタビュー【E3 2013】". Famitsu. 2013-06-12.]
they should have talked about MK8 DLC to keep the game fresh in Japan by now
hope it does not fall below 40k next week because Mario Kart needs long legs until at least September
Games released in Japan (include PSN games)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/comp_faqs.html
PS1: 3263
PS2: 2900
PS3: 1089 (so far)
PS4: 41(so far), for comparison the PS2 had over 1000 game release in it's first 2 years or so.
------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week (%) | FY 2014 | FY (%) |
------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS | 144.041 | 36.20% | 2.196.569 | 38.00% |
| PS3 | 83.997 | 21.10% | 1.234.746 | 21.40% |
| Wii U | 69.734 | 17.50% | 817.328 | 14.10% |
| Vita | 61.997 | 15.60% | 1.014.201 | 17.50% |
| PS4 | 19.253 | 4.80% | 229.872 | 4.00% |
| PSP | 16.189 | 4.10% | 242.917 | 4.20% |
| X360 | 2.268 | 0.60% | 44.954 | 0.80% |
------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 397.479 | 100.00% | 5.780.587 | 100.00% |
------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week (%) | FY 2014 | FY (%) |
----------------------------------------------------
| 3DS | 26.099 | 36.40% | 317.751 | 39.40% |
| Vita | 14.564 | 20.30% | 175.353 | 21.70% |
| Wii U | 12.408 | 17.30% | 98.182 | 12.20% |
| PS4 | 7.374 | 10.30% | 106.695 | 13.20% |
| PS3 | 6.722 | 9.40% | 76.932 | 9.50% |
| PSP | 4.436 | 6.20% | 30.206 | 3.70% |
| X360 | 183 | 0.30% | 2.106 | 0.30% |
------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 71.786 | 100.00% | 807.225 | 100.00% |
----------------------------------------------------
The difference between the Wii U and PS4 is going to be that the PS4 will have more consistent support in the future.
I don't think MK needs DLC (so soon), it has online multiplayer. And Nintendo needs the other titles doing well, especially DQX.
is any expecting the DQX package to chart?
Anyway, the episodic approach might be a chance to get FFXV out earlier than expected. Surely SE understands that without enough titles driving PS4 (and X1) sales, waiting will be only detrimental. The Western market won't wait either.
that model worked well with FFX-2. however with FF XIII-2 and Lightning Returns it seems to have failed hard.I think you're misinterpreting the reason they are doing this. FFXV will be an "epic" with multiple episodes due to sheer necessity - asset creation is so expensive nowadays that you can only make your money back, if you re-use your assets time and time again. The world they are creating for FFXV can be used with only slight additions in the next two FF games - which means that the individual game is both cheaper and quicker to produce (since you don't have to waste 3 years to create assets for a completely new world).
its not new content so probably not. DQX seems to be pretty active still though.
The difference between the Wii U and PS4 is going to be that the PS4 will have more consistent support in the future.
It's not all about big games. Small/mid-sized games are equally as important, and we don't know how the PS4 will fare with those. I would say the main reason behind PS2 > PS3 decline is not because of FF/MGS etc decline, It's because of overall decline in games released in general.
Games released in Japan (include PSN games)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/comp_faqs.html
PS1: 3263
PS2: 2900
PS3: 1089 (so far)
PS4: 41(so far), for comparison the PS2 had over 1000 game release in it's first 2 years or so.
In the PS1/PS2 days you had new games releasing every single week, through the whole year. This is not the case anymore. Now we have systems like the Wii U that go whole months without a single new release.
A version of this for each system as of the first 4 months in their life could perhaps be interesting.
Is that a good performance for the Ao no Kiseki: Evolution remake?
Certainly but these small mid sized games came to PS3 following the big games and that should happen with PS4 too. Of course as we see starting from PS1 the amount of these games continues to shrink and it will certainly happen with PS4 too especially with mobile boom in japan but to what extend well we have to see. Before PS4 launched I had naive thought that it could capture some of the Wiis audience and sell maybe even better than PS3 despite the console maket overall shrinking but yeah now I already agree that it will not touch PS3. Crashing from 10 million to under 5 million I disagree though. It's following exactly same strategy as PS3 and I don't see how with that there would be over 50% drop. PS2 -> PS3 drop came from casuals fleeing to other systems.
FFXV is not going to be an "episodic" game. Let's not be silly. If it's successful to begin with they're going to try and release more games with the same engine and assets within 1-2 years each, similar to games like CoD and Assassin's Creed. But that's not "episodic" at all.
that model worked well with FFX-2. however with FF XIII-2 and Lightning Returns it seems to have failed hard.
They're talking about episodic DLCs in the vein of that Three Cursed King thing in Dark Souls 2.
The difference between the Wii U and PS4 is going to be that the PS4 will have more consistent support in the future.
SE apparently is. The game offers prizes when you continue playing the game on a paid subscription, after 90 days, 180, 360 and so on. At the time the all in one package was announced they also established new reward periods after 30 and 60 days.is any expecting the DQX package to chart?
That's not what Nomura described at all. He seems to already have decided that the game's story will be split up. Especially the 1-2 years sound too long for what he suggests about the game using online for providing quick sequels:FFXV is not going to be an "episodic" game. Let's not be silly. If it's successful to begin with they're going to try and release more games with the same engine and assets within 1-2 years each, similar to games like CoD and Assassin's Creed. But that's not "episodic" at all.
Famitsu: If it's going to be a series, I think the users will prefer that the single installments release in short time spans, what can you tell us about that?――連作になる場合、ユーザーはそれぞれの作品が短いスパンでリリースされることを望むと思いますが、それについてはいかがですか?
野村 どういう形で出すかは追って発表しますが、つぎが出るまで長くお待たせしてしまうのは望むところではないので……これも、次世代機へハードを移行したときに決まったことですが、オンラインへの対応も検討しています。
That's not what Nomura described at all. He seems to already have decided that the game's story will be split up. Especially the 1-2 years sound too long for what he suggests about the game using online for providing quick sequels:
Famitsu: If it's going to be a series, I think the users will prefer that the single installments release in short time spans, what can you tell us about that?
Nomura: I will announce what form it will take at a later time, but since it isn't our wish to make people wait long for the next one... well, we decided this also when we moved the title to the next hardware generation but we're examining the possibility to include online functionality [for that].
That's not what Nomura described at all. He seems to already have decided that the game's story will be split up. Especially the 1-2 years sound too long for what he suggests about the game using online for providing quick sequels:
Famitsu: If it's going to be a series, I think the users will prefer that the single installments release in short time spans, what can you tell us about that?
Nomura: I will announce what form it will take at a later time, but since it isn't our wish to make people wait long for the next one... well, we decided this also when we moved the title to the next hardware generation but we're examining the possibility to include online functionality [for that].
The context of what he's saying there is completely wrong. He's not talking about online features to -deliver- the rest of the "series", but rather that they are planning online features to extend the life of a game while people wait between sequels.
He makes it pretty clear in the next question about online features, where he laments that big titles take a long time to make, but players tend to finish them off in a short period of time. Online features can help extend this play time, so while waiting for the story to continue, players still have something to stay excited about. This is what they're exploring with regards to online functionality.
If I had to guess, I'd say a new Nintendo Direct is fast approaching:
July 10 - Youkai Watch 2
July 17 - Wii Sports Club
July 24 - Yoshi's New Island
August 14 - Hyrule Warriors
And crazy how the Recommended Software promotion didn't hurt Youkai Watch one bit.
April: 167,701
May: 181,386