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Media Create Sales: Week 29, 2013 (Jul 15 - Jul 21)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
It depends of the title, but most of the time for those who don't have legs a healthy sell-through should be around 65-80%
It depend if the game is frontleaded or if it will have legs, for most games I would say something like 70-80% is good, as for Mario and Luigi 4 I do think it's a bit soon to scream bomba given the serie always had good legs.
Retailers was expecting to sell that much as well since they are the one ordering stock. It's not like Nintendo can force them to take all the copies if the retailers do not want them. As someone mentioned earlier, there is no backfire for Nintendo since Japan retailers can't return stocks. It backfired for the retailers though.
Allan Holdsworth
Member
Well kind off, since retailers may order less of the next similarly themed Nintendo game, though the closest thing this year is SM3DW so the damage is relative. Plus, while I don't think there will be much price collapse, Nintendo likes to keep prices high (see them never releasing budget versions of their games in Japan)
metalslimer
Member
I don't know which way they should have done it but having mario and luigi and paper mario on the same system this close was stupid. One of them should have been on wiiu.
Since the Wii U's release line-up is a popular topic this week, instead of just focusing on this Fall, I thought it might be fun to look ahead to Nintendo's published game line-up for 2014 and beyond.
Here's what we know is 2014 or later in Japan from Nintendo (feel free to correct me):
-Bayonetta 2
-Super Smash Bros
-Mario Kart 8
-X
-Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem
-Yarn Yoshi
-Zelda is sort of announced, but not fully.
So my questions are:
1.) What (if any) other retail titles are you expecting to hit in 2014 from Nintendo? If individual titles is too hard, feel free to guess at the number of unannounced retail titles they will also release in 2014.
2.) Do you expect any of the above to miss 2014?
3.) If you feel up to it, feel free to guess the general release timeframes for the above list that you expect to release in 2014 (and anything else you suspect is releasing in 2014). I mean this in a "holiday", "Fall", "first half" kind of sense as opposed to "July 27th, 2014".
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My personal answers would be:
1.) I'm guessing they will release 1-2 more titles in the year, targeting the holiday window. I suspect they want a Mario game with platforming, so Paper Mario would fit, and then perhaps something more accessible and peaceful like Animal Crossing.
2.) I would be surprised if Zelda releases in 2014. I suspect Nintendo wants it out in Fall 2013 since Aonuma keeps talking about a 3 year development cycle, but I think it will likely be delayed until at least March 2015 or Fall 2015, and that Nintendo will plan their releases around the probability of this happening.
3.) I expect Bayonetta 2 and Mario Kart by the end of Spring, and X feels like it will come sometime in the Summer. Yarn Yoshi and SSB are probably Fall titles along with the other games I suggested in question 1. Zelda would slot in well, but not be overly missed if it misses the proposed Fall line-up. I have no idea when SMT x FE would release, but it could pretty much be slotted in anywhere since I doubt they view it as a critical release to success.
Here's what we know is 2014 or later in Japan from Nintendo (feel free to correct me):
-Bayonetta 2
-Super Smash Bros
-Mario Kart 8
-X
-Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem
-Yarn Yoshi
-Zelda is sort of announced, but not fully.
So my questions are:
1.) What (if any) other retail titles are you expecting to hit in 2014 from Nintendo? If individual titles is too hard, feel free to guess at the number of unannounced retail titles they will also release in 2014.
2.) Do you expect any of the above to miss 2014?
3.) If you feel up to it, feel free to guess the general release timeframes for the above list that you expect to release in 2014 (and anything else you suspect is releasing in 2014). I mean this in a "holiday", "Fall", "first half" kind of sense as opposed to "July 27th, 2014".
-----
My personal answers would be:
1.) I'm guessing they will release 1-2 more titles in the year, targeting the holiday window. I suspect they want a Mario game with platforming, so Paper Mario would fit, and then perhaps something more accessible and peaceful like Animal Crossing.
2.) I would be surprised if Zelda releases in 2014. I suspect Nintendo wants it out in Fall 2013 since Aonuma keeps talking about a 3 year development cycle, but I think it will likely be delayed until at least March 2015 or Fall 2015, and that Nintendo will plan their releases around the probability of this happening.
3.) I expect Bayonetta 2 and Mario Kart by the end of Spring, and X feels like it will come sometime in the Summer. Yarn Yoshi and SSB are probably Fall titles along with the other games I suggested in question 1. Zelda would slot in well, but not be overly missed if it misses the proposed Fall line-up. I have no idea when SMT x FE would release, but it could pretty much be slotted in anywhere since I doubt they view it as a critical release to success.
michaelius
Banned
Considering they released Skyward Sword in 2011 i'll be suprised if Zelda is relleased before 2015 - it probably will be last major title released for wii U.
Aquamarine
Member
-Bayonetta 2 (1H 2014)
-Super Smash Bros (Holiday 2014)
-Mario Kart 8 (April 2014)
-X (2H 2014)
-Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem (Holiday 2014)
-Yarn Yoshi (2H 2014)
-Zelda is sort of announced, but not fully. (2015)
I expect more new announcements immediately succeeding Holiday 2013 with relatively short release time frames (announced in early 2014 for a later 2014 release). Such announcements might include:
1) Some form of 2D Metroid reboot ala. Zelda: A Link Between Worlds for 3DS
2) Some form of Kirby title
3) New IPs from Nintendo (new Mario IP / new Pokemon IP counts here)
I considered suggesting a Kirby title as coming out in Fall 2014, but I remembered Yarn Yoshi exists, and Nintendo usually caps out at one Mario platformer + one non-Mario platformer.
In regards to Nirolak's question, I think they will show a good amount of titles for 2014. The ones they have so far are looking really good. The question is how they are going to schedule the releases.
Also, I believe SMT X Fire Emblem is going to be bigger than expected. Both of their respective sequels did well, especially Fire Emblem. The audience and interest is there, and the two fanbases could come together to really go for the title.
Also, I believe SMT X Fire Emblem is going to be bigger than expected. Both of their respective sequels did well, especially Fire Emblem. The audience and interest is there, and the two fanbases could come together to really go for the title.
Right, I'm kind of imagining most Wii U titles announced in 2014 will be for 2015 given half or more of the titles they announced this year are for 2014.
As for SMT x FE, even if it's larger, I just don't think they have a set timeframe where they feel they have to get it out in order to not mess with their install base plans.
Aquamarine
Member
I respectfully disagree.
I feel that the current Nintendo is looking to minimize their announcement -> release span for future game announcements.
Lord_Byron28
Member
How long are you expecting the Wii U to last? No way that will happen. Miyamoto said they couldve and were considering showing footage of the new Zelda at E3 this year but decided to wait a little longer and focus on the two Zelda titles releasing this year. Iwata made a similar hint that they hope to show off the new Zelda Wii U sometime in the not so distant future.
Just with title count it seems like a lot to release in 2014.
If we already have six games, how much more can they feasibly put out and still have enough for 2015? That's why I only think they will go up to around eight at most.
They don't have anything for the first 2 or 3 months of 2014 for the Wii U though with Mario Kart 8 supposedly being the first of the titles in your list which has a tentative release date of Spring 2014. That leaves 10 to 9 months for releases.
metalslimer
Member
I honestly think outside of those games nintendo won't have much more. Nintendo has a full release schedule for 3DS and Wii u, Where exactly do people think they are going to get these dev resources for all these games?
-Bayonetta 2- Feb-March 2014
-Super Smash Bros- October/november 2014
-Mario Kart 8- April 2014
-X- Summer 2014 japan
-Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem- September-October 2014
-Yarn Yoshi- This is a big question mark. It has been in development long wnough to be out early next year but nintendo is showing nothing so probably August-septembe 2014
-Zelda is sort of announced, but not fully.- December 2014 or pushed to 1st half 2015
Now lets look at what they could announce extra. A Kirby game should be coming for either wiiu or 3ds or maybe even both. Intelligent Systems is probably really busy so i doubt they have paper mario out next year and the mario rpgs need a rest anyway. Their is the whole new IP they are teasing which conceivably could be for next year, but if you look at it most nintendo teams are busy on 3DS and Wiiu and have announced games or just released games. People seem to forget nintendo has off years and cannot keep up a brisk pace of releases so nything more will be 3rd party partnerships
Now I have a question i think is interesting. What is Nintendo going to release for 3DS next year? With development resources seemingly shifting to wiiu for the bigger teams could we see a relatively soft year for 3DS?
There is Yarn Yoshi, Zelda in Japan, and Smash so far. I believe a Kirby game is coming and Monolith has a team working on a 3DS game that could be 2014. A new revision will likely be next year going by the 2 year cycle of the DS, but we could see a substantial drop off from this year at least in terms of sales with all of nintendo's evergreens released on 3DS.
Actually i forgot about metroid, but with Tanabe making it sound like there are only ideas floating around it seems like something wont happen next year
-Bayonetta 2- Feb-March 2014
-Super Smash Bros- October/november 2014
-Mario Kart 8- April 2014
-X- Summer 2014 japan
-Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem- September-October 2014
-Yarn Yoshi- This is a big question mark. It has been in development long wnough to be out early next year but nintendo is showing nothing so probably August-septembe 2014
-Zelda is sort of announced, but not fully.- December 2014 or pushed to 1st half 2015
Now lets look at what they could announce extra. A Kirby game should be coming for either wiiu or 3ds or maybe even both. Intelligent Systems is probably really busy so i doubt they have paper mario out next year and the mario rpgs need a rest anyway. Their is the whole new IP they are teasing which conceivably could be for next year, but if you look at it most nintendo teams are busy on 3DS and Wiiu and have announced games or just released games. People seem to forget nintendo has off years and cannot keep up a brisk pace of releases so nything more will be 3rd party partnerships
Now I have a question i think is interesting. What is Nintendo going to release for 3DS next year? With development resources seemingly shifting to wiiu for the bigger teams could we see a relatively soft year for 3DS?
There is Yarn Yoshi, Zelda in Japan, and Smash so far. I believe a Kirby game is coming and Monolith has a team working on a 3DS game that could be 2014. A new revision will likely be next year going by the 2 year cycle of the DS, but we could see a substantial drop off from this year at least in terms of sales with all of nintendo's evergreens released on 3DS.
Actually i forgot about metroid, but with Tanabe making it sound like there are only ideas floating around it seems like something wont happen next year
BishopLamont
Banned
er..so Wii U will be discontinued after 2015? lol
All about the software and Vita is gonna be so lacking compared to the Wii U. Not to say the Wii U's lineup is splendid by any means, but something like SM3DW will do more for the Wii U than anything else on the Vita combined. The usual Nintendo holiday boost like I said will also be another advantage for them.
metalslimer
Member
Depends how its selling, if its profitable and what not. If its still selling horrendously by this time next year, nintendo cannot afford to throw money at a dead system
And once again this is a december title when the gap will be bigger, so do you honestly expect wiiu to outsell vita by 100k at least in december
BishopLamont
Banned
So they're gonna discontinue it and go through the pains of launching another console? GC was selling like shit, as long as software sells and its profitable, there's absolutely no reason for them to simply discontinue it. They're not in any financial trouble like Sega was. This is just ridiculous.
Did retailers stop stocking the GC? Maybe wait til there's a decent lineup of games before you come to the conclusion that software ain't selling.
H_Prestige
Banned
Assuming it continues selling like complete shit, why would retailers continue to stock it? The games aren't selling either so where's the money coming from?
metalslimer
Member
No, they will Gamecube end of 05/06 it. They got their 5 years out of the gamecube but they stopped caring long before that and if this console continues to underperform that, why should nintendo invest hundreds of millions into games and ads. And nintendo dropped the gba that was breaking records so dont doubt nintendos ability to drop systems when they feel in danger
Sammy Samusu
Member
DS had many female and casual gamers, I fear for AA5. It's going to be a success, but maybe not as much as AA4.
BishopLamont
Banned
Because software makes them money. Again, look at the GC.
Yeah stop making the games that make them money is totally gonna maximize their profits.
michaelius
Banned
Nope they will keep it on life support till next gen is ready but it won't receive any more major games than those which are currently in production as Nintendo always prioritizes maximizing profits.
The PS3 had a much slower launch, as I recall. The WiiU sold quite well for the first few weeks.
metalslimer
Member
We have no idea how profitable the gamecube was because the gba was a monster. Besides nintendo has the 3DS with a lot more potential for money. Like i said you are pretending like this is unprecdented. They literally just did this with the wii and that was a software monster.
This is not to mention the hike in dev costs
BishopLamont
Banned
Wii U has alot more potential for money if they get the ball rolling, handhelds are not as popular as consoles in the west, which is where the money is. You do realise by the end of 2015 the Wii U is only 3 years old? This is nothing like what they did for the GC or the Wii.
metalslimer
Member
Right...if they get the ball rolling which is very much in doubt. And i edited it in after but even if wiiu games sell more the profit will be less due to dev costs
BishopLamont
Banned
Doubt all you want, won't change the fact what you guys are proposing is ridiculous. 3 years of support? Laughable.
Oh and what the hell do you mean they will GC 05/06 it? GC was supported by Nintendo all the way to 2005 and 2006 is when the Wii launched. Sure the GC wasn't well supported but Nintendo did the best they could considering they have to support their handheld too.
Nice. Do we have any sell through %?
metalslimer
Member
Tell that to nintendo who intentionally murdered the GBA and gave up on the gamecube in the middle of year 4. You pretending like nintendo has never done anything like this is laughable. Even the wii only got 4 years of real support. The 2011 and 12 release schedules were a joke.
Thinking about it actually, the DS was the only platform with a good amount of support past year 4 for nintendo in the past decade.
So yes, i dont think nintendo pretty much stopping support for not only their worst selling console, but one of the worst selling consoles we've seen in recent memory in year 3 is ridiculous
Well looking at how nintendo's BBB franchises have been doing on 3ds it seemed like it should do more
BishopLamont
Banned
360 launched in 2005, what did you want Nintendo to do? Keep supporting the GC? Why the hell would they want to be behind come next generation? So if what you're saying is right, Nintendo is gonna launch another console a year or two after the xbone/ps4 comes out? How in the hell does that even make sense?
GBA was ditched in favor of the DS due to the suprise new contender, the PSP. Its not because of lack of sales. Wii didn't stop getting support because of lack of sales either, nor did the GC. Now all of a sudden where console launching is harder and more expensive than ever, Nintendo is gonna pull such a bone headed move? Nintendo supports their consoles based on the competition, the xbone/PS4 successors isn't gonna come out in 2015, there's no reason for Nintendo to stop the support of the Wii U, the hell they gonna do for the rest of the generation? Make only 3DS games?
Sorry, what's BBB stand for?
metalslimer
Member
I guess you didn't read anything i said. I don't expect them to launch a new console anytime soon. They can still get 5 years out of the platform even with pretty much no huge releases in year 5. I guess i should ask, how long exactly do you think the wiiu can last on the market anyway?
Sorry, just a less tier than their AAA franchises.
BishopLamont
Banned
Ok so after 2015 all they gonna make is 3DS games? Just as the next-generation is just getting started?
How long will it last? Longer than you think.
Oh, like Luigi's Mansion and DKCR 3D?
Yeah, it's not as impressive as those, but those two kind of exceeded expectations I thought.
metalslimer
Member
If wiiu is selling like it is now or worse? For the most part yes and probably start gearing up for the next handheld launch. I don't see them ending wiiu support completely, but major games? I doubt it. And don't get me wrong im not saying this exact thing will happen 100%, but i find it crazy to deny there is any possibility whatsoever.
BishopLamont
Banned
Lol, yeah ok, we'll just let the console linger for another 5 years while the competition is still on a high.
So they give their console B tier games? How does that even start to make sense to u? Nintendo isn't low on cash, why the hell would they develop a game that sells shit when they can make a game that sells alot? This isn't third parties support, this is Nintendo support. No major games for their only console? lol, so funny to even start entertaining that thought.
I agree.
Please bring Paper Mario back to the Wii U (in rpg form).
There was nothing wrong ith ML on handhelds and PM on consoles.
Instead, Super Pario Mario happened, then Sticker Star on 3DS...
why change what was fine.
metalslimer
Member
Well you could stop putting words in my mouth because i never said to leave it lingering until 2020. And i said 5 years as in total aka 2017. But you can believe what you want really. I have to go out. We can discuss further by pms if you want
BishopLamont
Banned
Er you said you don't expect them to launch another console, if they're not letting the Wii U linger because of no support like u said, what are they doing then?
So why are you even arguing with my original post about Nintendo discontinuing the Wii U after 2015? Now you change to 2017? You JUST said year 3, now you change to 5 years?
No thanks, I'm kinda done with you, considering how much you wanna backtrack. Talking to people like you is pointless.
Some anecdotal information, but it doesn't hurt to now. Lego was released today and finally got in the top 20 on amazon and sold out on amiami. In the eshop download list, it's on the third spot, below Pikmin even without 10% of discount, but it's better than nothing.
Not expecting a huge sucess, but perhaps we could see Lego having the same sales as Luigy U (the retail version). It would be a huge sucess if real.
Also, Sega put a demo on the eshop for RGG and the game is rising on the amazon charts (but still is on an awful position).
Still betting for 10k for Yakuza, but it's nice to see there's an actual demand. Even if little.
Not expecting a huge sucess, but perhaps we could see Lego having the same sales as Luigy U (the retail version). It would be a huge sucess if real.
Also, Sega put a demo on the eshop for RGG and the game is rising on the amazon charts (but still is on an awful position).
Still betting for 10k for Yakuza, but it's nice to see there's an actual demand. Even if little.
michaelius
Banned
IF they will be making money on software with Wii U - they are now dealing with same costs as all other companies with HD development and advertising won't be magically cheaper when done for smaller than GC userbase.
BishopLamont
Banned
A company that lives off software sales isn't gonna make a profit on the software? Seriously..
Is Wii U the first console to start off with a low userbase or something? Did every console in history start with a 100M userbase from the get go?