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[KillerMan91]

A company that lives off software sales isn't gonna make a profit on the software? Seriously..

Is Wii U the first console to start off with a low userbase or something? Did every console in history start with a 100M userbase from the get go?

You realize that WiiU is currently selling under 100k monthly ww? That is not a normal slow start. That is practically dead console.

 

[BishopLamont]

You realize that WiiU is currently selling under 100k monthly ww? That is not a normal slow start. That is practically dead console.

You do realise the Wii U launched a year earlier then the PS4/Xbone? You do realise there's hardly any games out for it? You do realise Nintendo hasn't been marketing it? You do realise the console is more expensive then any other Nintendo console? All these things can only improve as time goes on.

The PS3 was selling even worse if you compare it to its competition when it first launched, look at it now. A console's fortune isn't determined in its first year. It'll never be a hit like the Wii was, but jesus christ stop with the dead console hyperbole already, thought people would learn that by now after how last generation turned out.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

You do realise the Wii U launched a year earlier then the PS4/Xbone? You do realise there's hardly any games out for it? You do realise Nintendo hasn't been marketing it? You do realise the console is more expensive then any other Nintendo console? All these things can only improve as time goes on.

By that time, what do you think the mindshare will be like?

Or do you expect everyone to ignore Microsoft and Sony's releases and flock to Nintendo when they fix their problems?

Heck, has any console ever kept all the flaws they've had at launch and somehow turned from an ugly duckling to a beautiful swan? PS3 started off slow if you only look at its early months in US and JP, but WW they didn't really crash and burn in any major territory, and still haven't recuperated all of that mindshare lost to X360 and Wii in Europe, Japan and the US.

 

[B.O.O.M]

You do realise the Wii U launched a year earlier then the PS4/Xbone? You do realise there's hardly any games out for it? You do realise Nintendo hasn't been marketing it? You do realise the console is more expensive then any other Nintendo console? All these things can only improve as time goes on.

The PS3 was selling even worse if you compare it to its competition when it first launched, look at it now. A console's fortune isn't determined in its first year.

This is just nonsense. They have been marketing it like crazy, especially in Japan, pre Pikmin. Their commercials sucked in the west, which is a different issue. So no, they have marketed it, but just failed to do a good job.

Not having enough games is Nintendo's issue. Third party support won't get that much better either.

So let's not blindly defend this now. Sales are fucking horrid. The competition is about get much tougher too with two more consoles hitting the same market (home consoles).

And pls don't compare the PS3 situation to the WiiU. PS3 was always going to get third party support...if you think that's likely for wiiu then you are setting yourself for some major disappointment. Besides selling slightly more than the crappy start PS3 had at the price it launched is not a 'positive'.

 

[KillerMan91]

You do realise the Wii U launched a year earlier then the PS4/Xbone? You do realise there's hardly any games out for it? You do realise Nintendo hasn't been marketing it? You do realise the console is more expensive then any other Nintendo console? All these things can only improve as time goes on.

The PS3 was selling even worse if you compare it to its competition when it first launched, look at it now. A console's fortune isn't determined in its first year. It'll never be a hit like the Wii was, but jesus christ stop with the dead console hyperbole already, thought people would learn that by now after how last generation turned out.

Even during its worst days PS3 sold way way more than WiiU is doing currently. Worst month of PS3 ever in US (80k) is probably more than WiiU does currently monthly wordwide. Hell WiiU is yet to pass launch week sales of PS3 in Europe. it's a disaster. Of course not to mention that PS3 had pretty much only one problem. The price and that was easy to fix with time. WiiU has problem that it just doesn't appeal to gamers. That is way harder to fix with pretty much zero third party support.

 

[Hellraider]

You do realise there's hardly any games out for it?

I always see this argument used with the wrong side of the argument.Nintendo not having an acceptable line-up of games right now doesn't mean that games are being withheld for the x,y,z reasons.It doesn't mean that they are keeping it slow now in order to make an explosion later.They are not waiting for something.They have not planned for something.They are catching up.

Nintendo not having games right now means they can't have games ready right now.Expand on that.They won't magically (arguably everything could change on that matter if a huge shift of a lot of things happened) be able to fill WiiU's every single year's line-up.

Don't be suprised if most of the 2014 line-up is what we already know of.

 

[metalslimer]

The fact that someone doesnt know the difference between discontinue and ending most support baffles me and then tries to preten d its backtracking. Whatever I should know better than to try to have a cordial argument with these kind of people but you cant argue against people who put words in others mouths. The ghost of laguna continues

Anyway lets get back to the interezting discussion of the 3ds and wiiu lineup for 2014

 

[Raist]

The PS3 was selling even worse if you compare it to its competition when it first launched, look at it now. A console's fortune isn't determined in its first year. It'll never be a hit like the Wii was, but jesus christ stop with the dead console hyperbole already, thought people would learn that by now after how last generation turned out.

The PS3 was selling better than the WiiU is. There's no room for discussion here.
But I'm curious about the "compared to its competition". Are you trying to say that the PS3/360 or PS3/Wii ratio is worse than... what, the WiiU/PS3 or WiiU/360 ratio?

 

[Kid Ying]

I dont think we already know about the lineup for 2014. Even if theres no other games from nintendo, they will probably try to moneyhat some games or make a contract with a developer like platinum, mistwalker, artoon(i know its dead. Just an example). No way theyre only going with that, plus zelda for the next year.

We should expect at least a new kirby, a relaunch of an old ip or a new one

 

[Majmun]

You do realise the Wii U launched a year earlier then the PS4/Xbone? You do realise there's hardly any games out for it? You do realise Nintendo hasn't been marketing it? You do realise the console is more expensive then any other Nintendo console? All these things can only improve as time goes on.

Is that supposed to be a bad thing? Nintendo had a year headstart and they blew it. Nothing to discuss here.

The Ps4 and X1 aren't even out yet. There's a possibility that the Wii U could do even worse after MS and Sony release their new consoles. A Mario Kart or SSB will only give the Wii U a small and short boost. But with no developer support and no contoller hype, the console has a very rough future ahead of it. And no, pricedrops can't save it. It didn't save the Gamecube, neither did Mario Kart or SSB, now that I think about it.

So I think you're the one who's not realizing how bad the Wii U is currently doing and what struggles it may face ahead.

 

[Chris1964]

Don't be suprised if most of the 2014 line-up is what we already know
of.

Ha! I know I won't be surprised but good luck convincing the die hard believers.

 

[metalslimer]

Ha! I know I won't be surprised but good luck convincing the die hard believers.

Its all going according to plan though

 

[schuelma]

This is just nonsense. They have been marketing it like crazy, especially in Japan, pre Pikmin. .

Are you sure? I was under the impression from Japanese gaf that Nintendo basically went dark on the system in Japan until Pikmin 3.

 

[B.O.O.M]

What are the known WiiU exclusives for 2014? MK, bayo2, Smash, what else?

Are you sure? I was under the impression from Japanese gaf that Nintendo basically went dark on the system in Japan until Pikmin 3.

I should have worded it better. I mean pre-pikmin launch as in leading up to the pikmin launch. They had around 3-4 new commercials I think.

 

[metalslimer]

What are the known WiiU exclusives for 2014? MK, bayo2, Smash, what else?

Look at nirolaks post
But x and zelda and yoshi

 

[B.O.O.M]

Look at nirolaks post

Oops not sure how I missed it. Was Zelda at least hinted for a 2014 release?

 

[Gianni Merryman]

What are the known WiiU exclusives for 2014? MK, bayo2, Smash, what else?

Fire emblem X SMT (?)
Donkey Kong country: tropical breeze (?)

 

[Majmun]

I wonder if there will be a MH4 U release...

 

[schuelma]

So my questions are:

1.) What (if any) other retail titles are you expecting to hit in 2014 from Nintendo? If individual titles is too hard, feel free to guess at the number of unannounced retail titles they will also release in 2014.

-I expect some sort of NFC game that Nintendo will push pretty hard

-Wii U Sports or something along those lines

-Some low to mid tier core release.

-Possibly Zelda.

2.) Do you expect any of the above to miss 2014?

Probably

3.) If you feel up to it, feel free to guess the general release timeframes for the above list that you expect to release in 2014 (and anything else you suspect is releasing in 2014). I mean this in a "holiday", "Fall", "first half" kind of sense as opposed to "July 27th, 2014".

.

Early/Spring- Bayo 2

April- MK8

July- X

Summer- random mid tier core title

September- FExSMT

October- Yarn Yoshi

November- Smash

December- the NFC game, whatever it is, and Wii U Sports

 

[DarkLordMalik]

I think that we can all agree that Nintendo is gonna discontinue Wii U if it doesn't resurrect from the dead. I am gonna give them as long as 2014 to announce a new console if Wii U is still bombing hard.

I think Wii U is practically unmarketable in its current state and hardware. Even a relaunch can't fix this mess. The only way Nintendo can have any hope is by launching a brand new console. If Holidays and some of the big hitters of 2013 fail to provide any result, the writing will be set in stone for a Wii U death.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

You do realise the Wii U launched a year earlier then the PS4/Xbone?

This is a massive advantage lol. How can anyone spin this as negative?

You do realise there's hardly any games out for it?

True but I don't see it recovering unless there is some third party support.

You do realise Nintendo hasn't been marketing it?

Nintendo recently has. Pikmin was marketed very well it seems.

You do realise the console is more expensive then any other Nintendo console?

Its doing almost bad than a console that had a price point almost twice its price.

All these things can only improve as time goes on.

Do you expect everyone to wait for Nintendo to fix these issues when they can just get a PS4/3 or 3DS?

The PS3 was selling even worse if you compare it to its competition when it first launched, look at it now.

Oh boy the ps3 and WiiU comparisons. We all knew the PS3 was going to get third party support form the get go, something the WiiU severely lacks and its without a doubt, at least in Japan the reason why PS3 was able to recover (along with a price cut).

A console's fortune isn't determined in its first year.

When's the last time a console without third party support or very little has recovered. Theres the solution to this problem.

I think that we can all agree that Nintendo is gonna discontinue Wii U if it doesn't resurrect from the dead. I am gonna give them as long as 2014 to announce a new console if Wii U is still bombing hard.

Pretty much no one expects this.

 

[Madouu]

What do we have announced for 2014 on wii u for Japan right now?

I guess there is:

- Mario Kart 8
- Bayonetta 2
- X
- Smash 4
- Art Academy
- SMT X Fire Emblem
- Yarn Yoshi

and I guess Donkey Kong if it's not released these holidays + the Sega exclusive game.

Did I forget something?

edit: oh god I just saw I'm super late with this post, I should've clicked post a long while ago.

 

[gamergirly]

This is just nonsense. They have been marketing it like crazy, especially in Japan, pre Pikmin. Their commercials sucked in the west, which is a different issue. So no, they have marketed it, but just failed to do a good job.

Not having enough games is Nintendo's issue. Third party support won't get that much better either.

So let's not blindly defend this now. Sales are fucking horrid. The competition is about get much tougher too with two more consoles hitting the same market (home consoles).

And pls don't compare the PS3 situation to the WiiU. PS3 was always going to get third party support...if you think that's likely for wiiu then you are setting yourself for some major disappointment. Besides selling slightly more than the crappy start PS3 had at the price it launched is not a 'positive'.

Marketing what exactly in the west? Pikmin 3 is the first commercial I've seen since NSMBU. Wii U won't pick up until the bigger games later this year.

 

[pieatorium]

PS3 sold worse than Wii U in its first weeks Japan and first month NA, since then Wii U has fallen behind in both territories on weekly average and behind NA on launch alined LTD's and the streams are coming close in Japan.

The only reason Wii U was ahead in WW sales and shipments for the first months was the delayed EU launch, PS3 sold more in its first week in EU than WiiU likely has since it's release there 8 months ago.

 

[StreetsAhead]

Since the Wii U's release line-up is a popular topic this week, instead of just focusing on this Fall, I thought it might be fun to look ahead to Nintendo's published game line-up for 2014 and beyond.

Here's what we know is 2014 or later in Japan from Nintendo (feel free to correct me):
-Bayonetta 2
-Super Smash Bros
-Mario Kart 8
-X
-Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem
-Yarn Yoshi
-Zelda is sort of announced, but not fully.

You forgot the Art Academy game, part of which will be released this summer as a download.

So my questions are:

1.) What (if any) other retail titles are you expecting to hit in 2014 from Nintendo? If individual titles is too hard, feel free to guess at the number of unannounced retail titles they will also release in 2014.

2-3.

My guess is that the new franchise Miyamoto has been pimping up and down town and the 'new type of game' Iwata spoke of at the Investor's Q&A are the same game and will be announced for next year at some point.

I also expect one or both of Wii U Sports and a Pokemon Spin-off.

That'd give them ~10 retail games for next year, which is quite respectable. They'll also have Steel Diver F2P for the system, too, I believe, as well as Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze if it doesn't come out this year in Japan.

2.) Do you expect any of the above to miss 2014?

SMT X FE would be the one most likely to, in my opinion, but I have nothing to back it up. Zelda could go either way. I worry it may be rushed if it's next year, but Iwata seemed pretty insistent that it have a 3 year development cycle in the Iwata Asks for SS.

3.) If you feel up to it, feel free to guess the general release timeframes for the above list that you expect to release in 2014 (and anything else you suspect is releasing in 2014). I mean this in a "holiday", "Fall", "first half" kind of sense as opposed to "July 27th, 2014".

My complete stab in the dark:
February: Donkey Kong TF
March: Mario Kart 8
April: Bayonetta 2
May: Pokemon 6th gen spin off???
June: Yarn Yoshi
July: X
August: Art Academy U
September: New franchise
October: Wii Sports U
November: Zelda U
December: Smash Bros.

 

[crinale]

Retailers was expecting to sell that much as well since they are the one ordering stock. It's not like Nintendo can force them to take all the copies if the retailers do not want them. As someone mentioned earlier, there is no backfire for Nintendo since Japan retailers can return stocks. It backfired for the retailers though.

By reading game store blogs the reason they overdo ordering is more like Software vendors (and even hardware vendors, i.e. Ninty and Sony) would put "higher priority" to stores order copies regularly. In other words, while game stores can determines how many copies they order, software vendors decide when to deliver them to software stores, based on which retailers have best "records". It's called "distribution based on ordering records" (there's an exact Japanese term to explain this practice). If stores want to get Pokemon copies on time then they better build up records of ordering, and this leads to quite low sell-though ratio on some software.

Again, by looking at game store guys' blog and tweets, it seems like this has been a common practice for a long time (has been like this for couple of console generations), and is common thing among every vendor involved in Japanese gaming industry. While it seems a good "tool" for software vendors to force retailers to order unwanted copies, some stores will go fire-sale for their dead stocks, thus resulting the "devaluing" of software brand, hurting software vendor's future.

 

[H_Prestige]

I always see this argument used with the wrong side of the argument.Nintendo not having an acceptable line-up of games right now doesn't mean that games are being withheld for the x,y,z reasons.It doesn't mean that they are keeping it slow now in order to make an explosion later.They are not waiting for something.They have not planned for something.They are catching up.

Nintendo not having games right now means they can't have games ready right now.Expand on that.They won't magically (arguably everything could change on that matter if a huge shift of a lot of things happened) be able to fill WiiU's every single year's line-up.

Don't be suprised if most of the 2014 line-up is what we already know of.

You don't get it man. This is all part of nintendo's master plan.

 

[L Thammy]

Does Nintendo have a team dedicated to communicating with third parties? If not, they desperately need one now. I can see no other possible way for them to fix the third party situation. Moneyhats are a temporary fix. They need to actually listen and adapt, and make it clear to third parties that they intend to listen and adapt.

Some anecdotal information, but it doesn't hurt to now. Lego was released today and finally got in the top 20 on amazon and sold out on amiami. In the eshop download list, it's on the third spot, below Pikmin even without 10% of discount, but it's better than nothing.

How's the marketing on LEGO been?

Also, Sega put a demo on the eshop for RGG and the game is rising on the amazon charts (but still is on an awful position).

Did the PS3 version have a demo? If not, bizarre.

 

[Kimawolf]

Nintendo should use this generation as a time to reflect, rebuild and figure out a new direction. This Wii U debacle should serve as a good lesson to begin building their 1st parties now and working on fixing their damaged image. Hopefully they do see this as a real issue.

 

[shinra-bansho]

100K monthly is actually pretty generous, considering it takes a 5 week month to get even close.

The 5-week month of June NPD was 42K.
Taking 5 weeks of Famitsu June sales gives 26K.
France, the Wii U's best European territory saw ~3K sold for the month of June, with by very guestimating extrapolation would probably generoulsy put Europe at like 15K in June.

A "normal" 4 week month, would probably see sales around 60K-70K.

Ha! I know I won't be surprised but good luck convincing the die hard believers.

To be fair, they did announce a couple of extra titles at E3, but I too wasn't surprised when the Nintendo Direct at the start of the year really was essentially Nintendo blowing their load of games through 2014.

Is Wii U the first console to start off with a low userbase or something? Did every console in history start with a 100M userbase from the get go?

The PS3 was selling even worse if you compare it to its competition when it first launched, look at it now. A console's fortune isn't determined in its first year. It'll never be a hit like the Wii was, but jesus christ stop with the dead console hyperbole already, thought people would learn that by now after how last generation turned out.

To the person who asked me earlier, comments like this are exemplary of a lack of realization regarding just how badly the Wii U is selling and betray a hopefulness towards an unlikely degree of turnaround.

 

[plank]

DK: TF is not coming this fall?

 

[BlackJace]

I know with Iwata, its all "don't believe his lies", but I do remember him saying stuff about unannounced titles. Whether or not those are 2014 bound is to be speculated. I wish they were more open about what they're making.

 

[pieatorium]

DK: TF is not coming this fall?

Nov in us/eu no timeframe for jp yet i don't think

 

[shinra-bansho]

I know with Iwata, its all "don't believe his lies", but I do remember him saying stuff about unannounced titles. Whether or not those are 2014 bound is to be speculated. I wish they were more open about what they're making.

There are probably unannounced titles, sure. I just don't know how likely they'd be for 2014 rather than 2015.

But realistically HD development takes time and manpower - I think typical development cycles were 2-3 years this gen? Couple that with Nintendo only now seemingly realising how difficult that transition to HD would be and a need to support the real breadwinner right now, the 3DS. It leads one to ask, who is realistically working on these projects for a 2014 release?

That's why when they revealed all those games at the start of the year, I assumed that would be it for the foreseeable future.

 

[saichi]

And once again this is a december title when the gap will be bigger, so do you honestly expect wiiu to outsell vita by 100k at least in december

100K is not a lot for the month. I actually think it will happen if Mario is release in first or second week of Dec.

 

[airmangataosenai]

I really wonder what the people who still believe in this recovery think a recovery looks like. People need to realize that momentum is important in these things, if the system is selling 5k units the week before Mario Kart comes out it isn't going to move to a 20k baseline immediately after.

 

[prwxv3]

I really wonder what the people who still believe in this recovery think a recovery looks like. People need to realize that momentum is important in these things, if the system is selling 5k units the week before Mario Kart comes out it isn't going to move to a 20k baseline immediately after.

Wiiu needs a constant stream of games to raise the baseline to healthy levels. One game is not going to cut it for WiiU and Nintendo is notorious for bad droughts.

 

[Nirolak]

I know with Iwata, its all "don't believe his lies", but I do remember him saying stuff about unannounced titles. Whether or not those are 2014 bound is to be speculated. I wish they were more open about what they're making.

I feel they've been pretty open all things considered.

I mean as of today Take-Two (2K/Rockstar) has zero 2014 games announced, Activision has one (Destiny), and Ubisoft has two (The Crew/The Division).

Nintendo in comparison has a lot more announced and shown off.

Of course they have good reason for having done so, but still.

 

[pieatorium]

I feel they've been pretty open all things considered.

I mean as of today Take-Two (2K/Rockstar) has zero 2014 games announced, Activision has one (Destiny), and Ubisoft has two (The Crew/The Division).

Nintendo in comparison has a lot more announced and shown off.

Of course they have good reason for having done so, but still.

Sony has 3, two ps4 (infamous, Order) one Vita (freedom).

Square has 2? (ffxv, kh3)

Sega has 2 (third sonic and miku)

Namco I dont think has any? other than publishing Dark Souls 2 in eu/us

Konami has 1 (mgs)

EA has 2 (star wars, mirrors edge)

Tecmo Koei has none

any others i can't think but i think the point is that Nintendo have more than most laid out

 

[metalslimer]

100K is not a lot for the month. I actually think it will happen if Mario is release in first or second week of Dec.

Sorry its 100k a week

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

Wii U 2014 (retail only, guessing Art Academy will be digital)

January: -nothing-
February: DKCR Tropical Freeze
March: -nothing- *Rayman Legends if still being published by Nintendo
April: Mario Kart 8
May: Yarn Yoshi
June: Wii Sports U
July: Super Smash Bros*
August: Bayonetta 2
September: X
October: -unnanounced new casual franchise-
November: Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem
December: MEGATON*

* 3DS version delayed 6 months to save the Wii U
* Pokemon action-rpg (real times battles) with NFC figures

Tell that to nintendo who intentionally murdered the GBA and gave up on the gamecube in the middle of year 4. You pretending like nintendo has never done anything like this is laughable. Even the wii only got 4 years of real support. The 2011 and 12 release schedules were a joke.

I'd say Wii's 2011 in Japan was not bad at all.

By reading game store blogs the reason they overdo ordering is more like Software vendors (and even hardware vendors, i.e. Ninty and Sony) would put "higher priority" to stores order copies regularly. In other words, while game stores can determines how many copies they order, software vendors decide when to deliver them to software stores, based on which retailers have best "records". It's called "distribution based on ordering records" (there's an exact Japanese term to explain this practice). If stores want to get Pokemon copies on time then they better build up records of ordering, and this leads to quite low sell-though ratio on some software.

Again, by looking at game store guys' blog and tweets, it seems like this has been a common practice for a long time (has been like this for couple of console generations), and is common thing among every vendor involved in Japanese gaming industry. While it seems a good "tool" for software vendors to force retailers to order unwanted copies, some stores will go fire-sale for their dead stocks, thus resulting the "devaluing" of software brand, hurting software vendor's future.

Thanks for the info. Do you know if Nintendo/other publishers lower the priority to stores that do fire sales? (doubt it in cases like Zelda PH which was extremely overshipped, but I remember reading Nintendo was mad at retailers for discounting Galaxy at first)

Some anecdotal information, but it doesn't hurt to now. Lego was released today and finally got in the top 20 on amazon and sold out on amiami. In the eshop download list, it's on the third spot, below Pikmin even without 10% of discount, but it's better than nothing.

Everything sells out at amiami, heh. And I doubt the 10% discount on digital would be that effective considering retailers already discount that at least.

 

[StreetsAhead]

I feel they've been pretty open all things considered.

I mean as of today Take-Two (2K/Rockstar) has zero 2014 games announced, Activision has one (Destiny), and Ubisoft has two (The Crew/The Division).

Nintendo in comparison has a lot more announced and shown off.

Of course they have good reason for having done so, but still.

Even with those 2014 announcements in January the sales have not improved. Sales only increased significantly the weeks actual software came out.

EDIT Lego does have the eshop discount and so will TW101.

 

[Nirolak]

Sony has 3, two ps4 (infamous, Order) one Vita (freedom).

Square has 2? (ffxv, kh3)

Sega has 2 (third sonic and miku)

Namco I dont think has any? other than publishing Dark Souls 2 in eu/us

Konami has 1 (mgs)

EA has 2 (star wars, mirrors edge)

Tecmo Koei has none

any others i can't think but i think the point is that Nintendo have more than most laid out

EA has quite a few actually (Dragon Age 3, Battlefront, Mirror's Edge, Titanfall, The Sims 4, and UFC), but they put out an assload of games so that's not overly surprising.

For Square Enix they also have Thief.

But yeah as a whole Nintendo is pretty high up on the "number of 2014 announcements" list.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Even with those 2014 announcements in January the sales have not improved. Sales only increased significantly the weeks actual software came out.

EDIT Lego does have the eshop discount and so will TW101.

I don't know. I think people tend to overestimate the importance of the actual week a title comes out, which is not to say that it's not very very important.

I think if people are interested in a system for a certain title, they aren't necessarily all waiting until that title releases. They tend to look for other reasons to buy, tipping points.

Anecdotally, I bought a PS3 ostensibly because of Final Fantasy XIII (lol). When the title was becoming more of a reality, and the PS3 became more affordable, it increased purchase intent. When I saw games like Uncharted 2, it increased purchase intent to the point of purchase almost half a year before the initial reason for purchase would release. I don't think people who want the 3DS for MH4 are necessarily waiting for its release to get one.

I think, in part, people who want the system for Mario 3D World will have bought already, or will be buying due to other tipping points prior to the actual game's release.

 

[StreetsAhead]

I don't know. I think people tend to overestimate the importance of the actual week a title comes out, which is not to say that it's not very very important.

I think if people are interested in a system for a certain title, they aren't necessarily all waiting until that title releases. They tend to look for other reasons to buy, tipping points.

Anecdotally, I bought a PS3 ostensibly because of Final Fantasy XIII (lol). When the title was becoming more of a reality, and the PS3 became more affordable, it increased purchase intent. When I saw games like Uncharted 2, it increased purchase intent to the point of purchase almost half a year before the initial reason for purchase would release. I don't think people who want the 3DS for MH4 are necessarily waiting for its release to get one.

I think, in part, people who want the system for Mario 3D World will have bought already, or will be buying due to other tipping points prior to the actual game's release.

In the same vein, while I dont think individually the Wii u titles for the next six months are going to tip that many people, taken together they could act as a tipping point for enough people to make a difference.

 

[guek]

I don't know. I think people tend to overestimate the importance of the actual week a title comes out, which is not to say that it's not very very important.

I think if people are interested in a system for a certain title, they aren't necessarily all waiting until that title releases. They tend to look for other reasons to buy, tipping points.

Anecdotally, I bought a PS3 ostensibly because of Final Fantasy XIII (lol). When the title was becoming more of a reality, and the PS3 became more affordable, it increased purchase intent. When I saw games like Uncharted 2, it increased purchase intent to the point of purchase almost half a year before the initial reason for purchase would release. I don't think people who want the 3DS for MH4 are necessarily waiting for its release to get one.

I think, in part, people who want the system for Mario 3D World will have bought already, or will be buying due to other tipping points prior to the actual game's release.

While I some parts of what you say are true, your logic falls apart spectacularly in the face of hardware bumps surrounding specific software releases and the holidays. Mario 3D World for example is a holiday title specifically because it's meant to do exactly the opposite of what you're describing. Whether or not it will, eh, we'll see, but software sells the bulk of hardware only once its actually out. The people who keep close track of release days are definitely in the minority.

I agree that there is a "tipping point" for most people once enough attractive software is out, but that's clearly cumulative based mostly on software that's has already released. MH4 and Pokemon for example are going to cause a huge upswing in 3DS sales during the weeks of their release, not so much weeks or months before.

 

[metalslimer]

Well the thing i think shinra saying is that the usual hardware bump is nowhere near actual sales for the game itself so the people who actually buy hardware for games as soon as they are out is overstated. But of course there are definitely exceptions

the same vein, while I dont think individually the Wii u titles for the next six months are going to tip that many people, taken together they could act as a tipping point for enough people to make a difference.

This is the best argument for wiiu somewhat recovering, but at the same time people looking ahead interested in 3rd party games are shit out of luck in japan which begs the question how many in japan are interested in a nintendo box that is a console when consoles are declining

 

[guek]

Well the thing i think shinra saying is that the usual hardware bump is nowhere near actual sales for the game itself so the people who actually buy hardware for games as soon as they are out is overstated. But of course there are definitely exceptions

But people don't buy systems for just one game. It doesn't seem like it's really worth even stating. People who already have the system will buy new great games when they come out. Yes, and...?

At the same time, we've definitely seen a single game or a handful of games sell a system for quite a while. We've actually seen this more with nintendo games and their hardware than with any other game or platform.

edit: I suddenly realize that what I said might sound contradictory. What I meant was people usually don't buy systems for one game and then never buy anything else.

 

[metalslimer]

But people don't buy systems for just one game. It doesn't seem like it's really worth even stating. People who already have the system will buy new great games when they come out. Yes, and...?

At the same time, we've definitely seen a single game or a handful of games sell a system for quite a while. We've actually seen this more with nintendo games and their hardware than with any other game or platform.

Well actually there were those reports off people buying vitas for persona 4 then selling it back lol. But to the last point, have we ever seen a group of games sell a system for an extended period of time specifically in japan. What i mean is there is usually a steady stream of support with most systems that do well and continue to do well.

 

[guek]

Well actually there were those reports off people buying vitas for persona 4 then selling it back lol. But to the last point, have we ever seen a group of games sell a system for an extended period of time specifically in japan. What i mean is there is usually a steady stream of support with most systems that do well and continue to do well.

Sure we have. What do you think is keeping 3DS so much higher than the others during weeks it doesn't have big new releases? Hell, animal crossing and luigi are STILL in the top 20. Wii Sports, MKWii, Wii Fit, etc. etc. Those titles are called "evergreen" for a reason. People bought Wiis just for those titles for ages after they debuted. That's evident by the fact that they continued to chart for so flippin long.

You could even see the correlation effect with NSMBU. While not 1:1, dips in NSMBU sales correlated pretty closely with Wii U numbers. Once it fell off the charts, Wii U took a nosedive. It's fair to say that just about everyone that wanted a Wii U for NSMBU has one now but that process took months. Hell, it's STILL showing up in the top 30 after more than 7 months so it stands to reason that it's still probably selling a couple hundred consoles just by itself every week. Shit like that seems fairly uncommon for most games.