With stock issues I wonder if it might be overperforming digitally?
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Media Create Sales: Week 30, 2015 (Jul 20 - Jul 26)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Canis lupus
Member
Wut? Was I expecting a 2016 date for DQXI when I made that post? Is DQXI confirmed for 2016?
shorter lifespan may not apply to japan imo. Sony launched PS4 late in japan this time and the wait might be longer for them next time. I have no doubt if there is a ps5 it will be backwards compatible with ps4 so a lot of games will come out on both and the price will drop to 199 or less sooner rather than later unlike the ps3. a ton of games are yet to come and many will be ps4 exclusive going forward as far as japan is concerned. i think tgs will showcase a lot more games this year for ps4 alongside a ps4 price cut to most likely 299 this holiday so lets see what happens. more developers will jump on board because it is easier environment to develop and third party engines are being adopted so it will lead to a lot more games.
Yes it's confirmed for 2016
thestopsign
Member
They are aiming for the series 30th Anniversary, which is 2016. I think the 3 million prediction was pretty ridiculous regardless of when it releases.
The WiiU may buck the trend this year
KillerMan91
Member
PS3 peaked in its third year.
I think PS4 will delay that to next year with FFXV/DQXI. It's still going to see an almost guaranteed shorter cycle / lower userbase than PS3 though. Less of a decline than Wii/Wii U or PSP/Vita (which are really the biggest relative losers this gen) though, probably more comparable to DS/3DS.
Don't start digging old posts when you don't understand what they mean. Especially with what you have predicted for PS4 at past threads.
I doubt it unless Nintendo has super high value bundles during the holidays.
Not current gen.
theprodigy
Member
Wii U's peak year in Japan was 2013.
Not without a killer Family bundle again. They really dropped the ball there in 2014.
PS3 was last gen.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
IIrc they want it to release during the 30th anniversary which ends mid 2017.
and why would the pattern hold true exactly?
I reckon PS4 peak year will be when FFXV comes out, which I hope is sometime in 2016.
It won't. PS4 will peak next year with FFXV/KH3/DQXI/Price drop, it'll mirror PS3 peaking in 2009 when it got FFXIII/RE5/Slim.
In Japan, no. Worldwide is a maybe depending on how long this gen goes. Though I think Microsoft will kickstart next generation around 2018-2019 and force Sony to move on to the PS5.
And_Gignac
Member
Doubtful. PS4 will peak the year FF7r launches. Or next year if FFXV makes it.
Sexy legs for Splatoon as usual.
KillerMan91
Member
Not current gen.
sörine;173358345 said:
I don't know then why to use so small sample size as current gen. It vastly differs when systems peak. Usually from range of second to fourth year.
If the fiscal year, so April 1, 2016 to March 31, 2017.
3 systems isn't so small a sample in a 5 system marketplace. PS4 will peak later though because it's gotten a slower rollout.
I half expect FFVIIr to get moved to PS5.
Come on, what are you doing Capcom?
Man, I really hope that whatever support Nintendo uses for its next handheld, production of new cartridge won't be as slow and costly as on 3DS.
There's a good reason no game has been using the 8GB card on 3DS, and if the 4DS doesn't have cheaper storage, dev are gonna compress the hell outta games since 4DS are boung to be bigger.
Fake edit: Monster Strike 3DS in Famitsu. 3D field confirmed (so game seems rather ambitious, and not just a straight port). I believe there's the Monster Strike Festival on Sunday, so we should expect a trailer then. Still planned for 2015 release.
By both sequential years and fiscal years, Wii U is on year 4. It doesn't really matter that it had a late 2012 launch, we don't look at these things in terms of a full first year.
And what's wrong with looking at two handhelds in market where handhelds command ~70% of the dedicated market?
The 3DS will galvanize the PS4's DQXI sales. The number of people who care about next-gen graphics is obviously not large enough given that the PS3 is still selling more software by a considerable margin on Japanese titles.
I wouldn't put any stake in FFXV hitting next year. KH3 will come out by the graces of UE4, unless Nomura over-engineers it into oblivion.
Square is starting their "marketing campaign" for the game next week at GC which doesn't sound like 2017 to me. Late 2016. It's coming.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
The difference between PS3/PS4 SKU's is minuscule in comparison to the difference of DQ11 on 3DS and PS4.
thestopsign
Member
But, IIRC, that start will be represented by live streamings of Episode Ducsae 2.0 again and again, right?
Doubt that. Sony's already paid out for "first on" privileges and NCL's management seems to prefer blowing deals on bigger fish (MH, DQ, YW).
KH3 won't be a big deal in Japan anyway. It never really has been, even at it's height it was only selling around as much as the top Musou or Winning Eleven games. It's never been a big hardware driver.
lol wow Splatoon.
Duscae is supposed to be a region 10x bigger than the demo we got, with cities and stuff.
They won't be showing the same behemoth fight for 17 hours lol
orthodoxy1095
Banned
Market it with a Frozen level.sörine;173361981 said:
Profit!
The stage demos for YouTubers is Duscae, but they're doing a full livestream for FFXV to deliver all sorts of new information about the game. Potentially even a release date.
sörine;173361981 said:
My sarcasm has fallen on deaf ears it seems but "bigger fish"? Not a single MH, DQ, or YW has ever come close to FFVII's sales worldwide. You don't get much bigger than one of the most popular and beloved RPGs ever made.
sörine;173361981 said:
Is this real life?
QuiteWhittle
Member
Episode Duscae 2.0 is not being streamed.
dakkumauji
Member
meh start for BASARA but dunno kinda expected
hard to say if Capcom will keep going with this, tbt, it's amazing they still keep making BASARA at this point ~_~
hard to say if Capcom will keep going with this, tbt, it's amazing they still keep making BASARA at this point ~_~
And sales will be the same way.
The potential is definitely there, if Mixi play their cards well. PDZ did over 1.5m by putting some efforts into it, so Monster Striker should do well too.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
And what way is that?
Okay, I take it back! :3
Musou and WE also did over a million on PS2. KH is massive in the west but not so much in Japan. Even historically it's below the heights that SaGa, Mana or Chrono managed in their day.
DQ and FF (even now) are leagues above it. Those are major deals. KH3 won't even match DQH.
Ok,this is the actual Gamescom schedule
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1084325
Ok, yeah, it seems more / better than what I thought. Let's see if ATR will bring the news people are expecting, even if I doubt we'll get a release period.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
So because its no possible longer to poo-poo the idea of Dragon Quest XI hitting a console, the general tone of Media Create threads going forward will be to downplay the PS4 SKUs sales potential compared to its 3DS counterpart. Predictable.
The way I see it, the 3DS version will obviously sell a good few million which is fantastic. The PS4 SKU will also sell very well too, relative to its install base, whatever that may be at the time. Considering both systems will likely get a limited edition 30th Anniversary bundle at launch too, its clear that Dragon Quest XI will have a healthy and successful launch, that'll please a pretty broad set of gamers.
This is Dragon Quest, and a mainline title at that. You know full well the standard rules won't apply and it will sell gangbusters on both systems relative to their respective LTD Hardware numbers.
The way I see it, the 3DS version will obviously sell a good few million which is fantastic. The PS4 SKU will also sell very well too, relative to its install base, whatever that may be at the time. Considering both systems will likely get a limited edition 30th Anniversary bundle at launch too, its clear that Dragon Quest XI will have a healthy and successful launch, that'll please a pretty broad set of gamers.
This is Dragon Quest, and a mainline title at that. You know full well the standard rules won't apply and it will sell gangbusters on both systems relative to their respective LTD Hardware numbers.
Sales threads reflecting market realities certainly is predictable.
edit: Just for fun I'll throw out an early DQXI prediction; ~3m 3DS and ~1.5m PS4. I expect a better PS4 ratio than usual since the games are more differentiated. NX may throw a wrench in that though depending on which version it gets and when.
edit: Just for fun I'll throw out an early DQXI prediction; ~3m 3DS and ~1.5m PS4. I expect a better PS4 ratio than usual since the games are more differentiated. NX may throw a wrench in that though depending on which version it gets and when.
thank you for the cross-quoting/replying!
Btw I agree with you.
on the specific of the OP numbers: Splatoon is really strong. this is the crucial info from this week's numbers. imho.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
sörine;173364414 said:
That old chesnut. Let's not get carried away here. I don't think anyone is under the illusion that its going to sell anywhere near what it will sell on 3DS, but I think that, of those who do own a PS4 in Japan...well, they'll eat it up. I'm sure it will be a successful launch.
orthodoxy1095
Banned
On the topic of DQ11, I've seen the sentiment shared that "JPN doesn't care about next-gen graphics," which I understand and agree with. But then we're using things like DQH to back up that notion, and while that title to me is obviously different on PS3 and PS4, it's not a wild difference. The difference between what the DQ11 3DS title and DQ11 PS4 title look like is a wild difference though. It's not going to single-handedly save home consoles in Japan, but certainly seems like a big enough difference in the two versions to encourage success and double dipping. But maybe I'm totally wrong.