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Media Create Sales: Week 31, 2013 (Jul 29 - Aug 04)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Cool?
So...you're saying you're an horrible person. Good.
You're really interesting.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Evidence of owning God Hand is required proof for calling anyone else "horrible" in this situation.
Law Abiding Stranger
Banned
While I agree Platinum's questionable sales are going to hurt them, Bayo2 and W101 are all on Nintendo.
The only thing Platinum itself has to damage is relationship with Nintendo and their image as a developer.
All of the blame will be on Nintendo fans, and only on them, if this doesn't sell.
Sammy Samusu
Member
W101 jumped from 302 to 59 on Amazon.
Aside those Nintendo haters / dismissers, that wouldn't get a console from them no matter what you mean.
So you think Platinum will have a new group of fans after this game? Sounds like a net win for the studio, actually.
metalslimer
Member
Er Viewtiful Joe was on gamecube..it actually was best on gamecube so Kamiya fans have been on Nintendo platforms for a while not to mention the incredible RE2 cartridge port. Okami also had a Wii edition. The only kamiya game exclusive nintendo fans didn't get was bayonetta and it's hard to believe most people here only owned a Wii. There are also a lot of people excited about the game that don't even owna Wiiu.
Aquamarine
Member
A third-party developer like Platinum needs clients like Nintendo to give them constant funding.
If Platinum were to go without work for say... two years, they might have to shut down if they don't have enough savings.
You can't have all of this overhead without incoming revenues.
There's always a chance that, if Bayonetta 2 and The Wonderful 101 bomb, Platinum Games might not receive any more clients based on the poor sales of their software.
It's unlikely (considering the success of Metal Gear Rising with Konami), but they always run the risk. It would be best if they can establish a harmonious relationship with Nintendo, since NCL seems to be giving them a massive amount of creative freedom.
Law Abiding Stranger
Banned
So called "Nintendo haters" could also people with no interest in Mario or Zelda.
Do you seriously think W101 is a system seller for them?
I personally will pick up WiiU for X and pretty much only for that, optionally FE x SMT.But I will do that later in the life cycle when the prices are at bargain level.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Lets hope theres 200k of new/old japanese ones total to match the 'bigger than Bayonetta' budget :/
Honestly, now the promotion wheel is finally rolling, what are peoples first week expectations? Vanquish was 60k, and I'm kinda hoping it can beat that with like 70k-80k? Or the pessimistic side of me is whispering "sub 50k bomba". Who to trust.
Sammy Samusu
Member
It's not going to sell 70-80k in two days, lol.
metalslimer
Member
Right now i'm thinking 30-40k first week. 90-100k ltd
Not really. If the game can break even it doesn't need to sell as much as Bsayonetta particularly because the bill is footed by nintendo so the royalty fees are going to the publisher anyway.
And why? Because they're Nintendo franchises? They're very different genres. Or the old kiddy argument?
They say "not for one game" for each good game that comes out. That's pretty evident, at least if you want to believe GAF posters. But there's undeniably more than one worthwhile game in its lifetime. So, they could adjust the argument with "...that interests me". Which outs them as gamers with very narrow tastes.
That's also something I hear pretty constantly. As if a good game is worth less when it comes out on a Nintendo console. That's pretty arrogant.
Law Abiding Stranger
Banned
Like I said anything under 100k first week for W101 is a commercial failure.
It doesn't matter if it's 30,40,50,60,70k.
This is a high budget game, not Mind=Zero.
It doesn't matter if it's 30,40,50,60,70k.
This is a high budget game, not Mind=Zero.
So a new IP from a developer with a history of commercial disappointments should sell more than Pikmin 3?
Come on.
test_account
XP-39C²
I think its more that people dont want to invest a lot of money into a system just to play a few games.
metalslimer
Member
That's not what he is saying. It can't open that high, but the budget of the game means it will be a failure opening below that number. Nintendo never expected wiiu to bombs hard when they greenlit this game. I think it can sell less and still possibly break even worldwide but a sub 50k opening would surely be a failure.
He has no way of knowing that. None.
metalslimer
Member
Based on everything we've heard about this game's budget you really think the game can sell so low and still pull a profit?
Law Abiding Stranger
Banned
I am strictly talking with the perspective of W101's budget.
It's higher than Bayonetta, it's only natural to have some expectations.
Dash Kappei
Not actually that important
I have no idea- I do know it is incredibly premature to base the games financial success on 2 days sales in one region.
I would also add that if Nintendo really spent that much money on this game they are not really acting like it in terms of a heavy duty push (compared to even something like Pikmin 3)
Snowden's Secret
Banned
My prediction: The Wonderful 101 will break 100,000 in it's first week.
metalslimer
Member
Well apparently people dont think that much was spent on development because if any other game with a supposedly decent budget opened so low people would deem it a failure. I mean how low of a budget do you have to have to sell sub 50k and not be a failure.
djplaeskool
Member
Kamiya openly stated that W101 had a more involved dev process than any other PG project, so take from that what you will.
It's a bit more than that, or else those people wouldn't constantly brag about it in posts. But yeah, it's also a self-fulfilling prophecy. Bigger market would mean more games, of course. Smaller market, less games.
So just to get this straight, we are arguing over a hypothetical, completely arbitrary number for two days worth of sales in one region of the world.
djplaeskool
Member
Given sales of the console worldwide, expectations are kind of forced into a narrow path.
metalslimer
Member
Well we can project to the rest of the world, but this is a japanese sales topic, and let's not pretend the majority of the sales won't be in those first 2 days
Or even lower it to 50k since apparently its only speculation to assume that would be a bad opening. And let's not forget how low the potential is for sales in the west in comparison to bayonetta.
No.
Snowden's Secret
Banned
Is this a ceterus paribus thing? What was the install base of of X360/PS3 when it launched, compared to that of Wii U? Any consideration given to Nintendo games not being as front-loaded as other games? etc
The install base excuse is just that- sales are sales, whether you want to account for user base or not.
Now your second point is something I had in mind- comparing a PS3/360 titles first week to a Nintendo published and promoted game isn't always going to give you an accurate idea of the LTD, especially worldwide.
If we account for a horrid situation, sure, even 50K looks good.
That said, if we're doing P/L and ROI here, these kinds of considerations aren't really relevant.
Also I would like to reject the notion that all Nintendo games have great legs. Looking at core titles like Pandora's Tower, Xenoblade, and The Last Story can help illustrate this.
I wonder if the porting costs Sega paid for the PS3 version are included in whatever hypothetical we are discussing here?
Probably not, but I'm not sure how much porting even runs these days when you do that poor a job.
We're talking maybe 3-4 programmers, a UI person, and QA?
Law Abiding Stranger
Banned
What I don't understand is that when someone points that W101 kinda looks like something you would download on the E-Shop (which at first glance isn't that weird) everyone rushes to point it's high production value.
But...when we are talking about potential sales the high budget suddenly doesn't matter?
But...when we are talking about potential sales the high budget suddenly doesn't matter?
michaelius
Banned
When you have platform or platforms that give you dozens of good games each year why would one care that he will miss a few that got released as Wii U exclusives when there are plenty of replacements fightning for your free time on other platforms ?
And that's merely time constraint.
Then you have money limitations - and the choice of dumping $400 on wii u with pikmin 3 or buying 7-8 more games for other platforms or new gpu for pc which will work for dozens of games.
metalslimer
Member
Pretty good comparison point.
One is a P/L concern, the other is a marketing and perception issue.
Yes, it is possible to make a very expensive game that looks cheap, but that doesn't make low sales suddenly more profitable.
Edit: I think I misread your post.
Absolutely, though even in the case of Xenoblade it had better legs than Bayonetta and most PS3/360 games.
It is definitely possible.
Edit:
Code:
Bayonetta PS3
2009-10-26 1 138,430 138,430
2009-11-02 8 29,120 167,550
2009-11-09 17 10,017 177,567
2009-11-16 24 5,121 182,688
2009-11-23 0 4,691 187,379
2009-12-21 0 0 196,150
2010-12-20 0 0 206,142
Xenoblade:
2010-06-07 1 79,163 79,163
2010-06-14 5 20,276 99,439
2010-06-21 21 10,064 109,503
2010-06-28 28 6,397 115,900
2010-07-05 30 4,223 120,123
2010-12-20 0 0 141,059I guess it's a bit better?
Law Abiding Stranger
Banned
Well, I meant that certain posters here bring up the budget issue as they see fit, instead of accepting W101 for an actually high budget title and every concern that comes with it.